It’s a GOP House. But Dems have big leverage now.

Presented by the League of United Latin American Citizens: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead

Apr 16, 2024 View in browser   By Nicholas Wu and Daniella Diaz Presented by the League of United Latin American Citizens With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team As Speaker Mike Johnson faces conservative resistance on his maneuver to pass a multi-part foreign aid package, he’s going to need Democratic votes to start floor debate on the legislation. | Francis Chung/POLITICO WILL JEFFRIES’ GREEN CARD MAKE ITS RETURN? For the second time this Congress, House Democrats are wielding unexpected control over the fate of a GOP speaker. And they’re giving very few clues to how they might use that leverage. As Speaker Mike Johnson faces conservative resistance on his complicated – and still murky – maneuver to pass a multi-part foreign aid package this week, he’s going to need Democratic votes to start floor debate on the legislation. And as high as the renewed pressure is on the House to pass foreign aid after Iran’s weekend attack on Israel, Democrats are far from committed to bailing out the speaker. Why is that? For starters, lawmakers are still waiting to see the text of the package sending aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, along with details on the procedural moves Johnson plans to employ to get it across the Capitol. Until they get assurances that the bills include their priorities on security assistance to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan – as well as humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza – House Democratic leaders aren’t settling on how to handle the vote setting up floor debate. Some in their ranks, however, are hinting that they don’t mind Johnson taking a tortured path as long as they get what they want in the end. “Those of us who've been around here for a while … know the process doesn't always work out the way that I prefer,” said Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), who predicted “bipartisan support” for the final package if the bills included their priorities. Other Democrats are clearly still frustrated and not yet at the acceptance stage when it comes to the House GOP’s perennial chaos. “We've been talking about this for a long, long time. They don't know what the hell they're doing,” said the top Democrat on the Rules Committee, Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.). “It just shows they’re in disarray.” Important flashback: It’s unprecedented to see the minority party help the House majority pass a rule for debate, but these Democrats have done it before – stepping in last year to help then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy start debate on a bipartisan deal to hike the debt ceiling. In a dramatic moment, most Democrats held off on casting their votes until Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries held up a green voting card, giving a signal to his party to vote yes on debating the debt bill. But that moment ended up critically damaging McCarthy within his own conference, effectively numbering his days as speaker after showing his reliance on Democrats. The memory of it could weigh on Johnson, who’s already facing his own ouster threat. So would Democrats save Johnson’s job? For now, party leaders aren’t engaging on that question either. It didn’t come up during their private caucus meeting Tuesday morning, though some Democrats have signaled for weeks that they could step in to help Johnson if he put Ukraine aid up for a vote. (Remember, Democrats didn’t step in to salvage McCarthy’s leadership job after he repeatedly denied needing their help to stay speaker.) “We can’t control the theatrics of [Rep.] Marjorie Taylor Greene and the House Republican conference, but we stand ready and willing to work with anyone who wants to deliver on that help and support,” Democratic Caucus Chair Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told reporters Tuesday. And Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.), chair of the centrist New Democrat coalition, said her party was “focused right now on substance over process.” Yet if Johnson ultimately brought a satisfactory Ukraine bill to the House floor, she said, “I would have no reason to” vote to remove Johnson. At a House Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) openly told Army leaders that Democrats could ride to Johnson's rescue: “there [are] a bunch of Democrats that are willing to have a conversation about helping in that scenario if it means we get the supplemental through this week.” Regardless of whether and when Greene (R-Ga.) might move to boot Johnson, there isn’t a Republican in line to replace him just yet. The MAGA firebrand is also hinting that she wants a clear plan in place to avoid the embarrassing leadership scramble that the House GOP descended into last fall. “This needs to be a much more controlled process than it was last time. I think that's the right thing for the conference, the right thing for the House,” Greene, who’s sponsoring the motion to vacate, said Tuesday. She added: “This time it doesn’t need to be that way. So I'm being responsible with this decision, and allowing people to come to terms about who would be the next speaker … No one has stepped up yet.” — Nicholas Wu and Daniella Diaz, with assist from Joe Gould  GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, April 16, where we’re enjoying the sun.   A message from the League of United Latin American Citizens: The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) has announced its intentions to end the longstanding partnership between Delta Air Lines and Aeroméxico, jeopardizing critical air routes between the U.S. and Mexico. This decision could mean major disruptions for the Latino community, faced with fewer flight options and higher fares. Get the facts.   CONGRESS NEEDS MORE CHAIRS House Democrats elected Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) as the new chair of their messaging arm, known as the DPCC, in a Tuesday morning caucus vote. She won 127-77 in a second round of voting against current co-chair Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.). Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), another co-chair who’d also been vying for the job, was eliminated after the first round of voting. We heard Democrats had some technical difficulties with the electronic voting system on their phones, which delayed results (but IT helped sort everything out). Dingell, who had passed out Sanders chocolates Monday ahead of the election, told reporters she’d work as a “girl team” with co-chairs Escobar, Underwood and Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.). The congresswoman representing Ann Arbor also gave the University of Michigan a shoutout: “Teamwork creates victors, and we’re going to go blue this year.” Lawmakers are likely relieved that this is their last leadership election to backfill vacant spots triggered by Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (D-S.C.) decision to step down as Assistant Leader. — Nicholas Wu  SCOTUS REFERENCES BOWMAN DURING JAN. 6 ARGUMENTS  Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch made a not-so-subtle reference Tuesday to Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) pulling a Capitol office building fire alarm, wondering if charges prosecutors applied to Jan. 6 defendants could be used in that case as well. During arguments about the way prosecutors have deployed federal obstruction laws against Jan. 6 rioters, Gorsuch wondered whether the felony charge — which carries stiff maximum jail sentence — could be deployed against an alarmingly wide range of conduct. “Would pulling a fire alarm before a vote qualify for 20 years in prison?” Gorsuch wondered, a clear reference to the Bowman incident late last year. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar noted that pulling the alarm in a building that is not the Capitol might not satisfy the obstruction law’s requirement of a direct interference with congressional proceedings. — Kyle Cheney   THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.     HUDDLE HOTDISH There’s some updated guidance from Senate leaders for this particular Senate impeachment trial. Former staff to Kevin McCarthy have some thoughts about who should be the next speaker. The last surviving Medal of Honor recipient from the Korean War, Colonel Ralph Puckett, Jr., will lie in honor at the Capitol on April 29. Therapy dogs in Russell! Tomorrow we can update our list of left-handed senators. Drag queen Pattie Gonia was spotted on the Senate side when the impeachment articles were being delivered. She was here to talk to lawmakers about climate change. It’s Madam President to you, Mark Green! QUICK LINKS  Conservatives are openly threatening to tank Johnson's foreign aid plan, from Anthony Adragna and Jordain Carney Secret Rift Over Data Center Fueled Push to Expand Reach of Surveillance Program, from Charlie Savage at The New York Times House control could hinge on California. Why Dems don’t have it locked down, from Melanie Mason Senator Menendez, Charged in Bribery Scheme, May Blame His Wife, from Benjamin Weiser and Tracey Tully at The New York Times   A message from the League of United Latin American Citizens:   TRANSITIONS  Matt Jansen is now press secretary for the House Judiciary Committee. He is also press secretary for Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.). TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are in session.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. POLITICO Pro dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.     WEDNESDAY AROUND THE HILL 8:45 a.m. Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) and others will have a press conference on marijuana reform. (House Triangle) 9:30 a.m. GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) will hold a press conference with students from Columbia University. (2261 RHOB) 10 a.m. The House Foreign Affairs Committee will host a bipartisan roundtable on the implementation of AUKUS with representatives from US defense industry involved in AUKUS Pillar II. (2172 RHOB) 11 a.m. Assistant Leader Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) and others will host a press conference on the Republican Study Committee’s budget. (HVC Studio A) 12:15 p.m. Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-U.S. Virgin Islands) will host a press conference to call on DOJ to denounce Insular Cases. (House Triangle) 2:30 p.m. Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and others will host a press conference on legislation to protect Gold Star Families. (House Triangle) 3:15 p.m. Rep. Chuy García (D-Ill.) will host a press conference on immigration and work permits. (House Triangle) 4:15 p.m. New Dems Coalition Chair Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) and others will host a press conference on extending the Affordable Connectivity Program. (House Triangle)   A message from the League of United Latin American Citizens: Since 2016, the Delta-Aeroméxico strategic partnership has been efficiently connecting the U.S. and Mexico with 1,000 weekly flights. Now, the Dept. of Transportation has proposed terminating its approval of the Delta-Aeroméxico partnership, threatening to disrupt this vital air connectivity that millions of Latino families rely on. A February 2024 survey conducted by Global Strategy Group found that not only do 70% of Mexican-American voters oppose canceling the agreement, but more than 80% agree that the loss of options between the U.S. and Mexico would be harmful to their families. Learn more.   TRIVIA MONDAY’S ANSWER: Mark Silverman was the first to correctly guess that the first president to be interviewed by a female reporter was John Quincey Adams, who was questioned by Anne Royal. The nickname bestowed by the President was “the virago errant in enchanted armor.” TODAY’S QUESTION, from Mark: How many vice presidents have ascended to the presidency? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.   Follow us

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