| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Joe Gould and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  “The concerns in that letter remain the same today,” Rep. Jim McGovern told NatSec Daily. “I am deeply troubled by what may come next in Gaza. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | With help from Lee Hudson Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric As the world awaits Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack over the weekend, U.S. lawmakers are still calling for Washington to stop sending weapons to Israel. Fifty-six House Democrats signed a letter last week urging President JOE BIDEN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN to halt all weapons transfers to Israel. One of the lead signers of that letter, Rep. JIM McGOVERN (D-Mass.), said the Iran attack hasn’t changed his mind. “The concerns in that letter remain the same today,” he told NatSec Daily. “I am deeply troubled by what may come next in Gaza. Already the civilian death toll is unbelievably high, and if I am not mistaken, [Prime Minister BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU has indicated that he is not done” with the military operation in Gaza. Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s ranking member, hasn’t greenlighted the Biden administration’s request to sell F-15 jets worth $18 billion and munitions to Israel. Today, he denied that Democrats are pressuring him one way or the other and said — with the jets not due to arrive in Israel for several years — that the more urgent question is how Republicans will pass an overarching aid package. “Right now on that [F-15] package, I've got to do as I've said, my homework. It's not something that is a time issue or a time factor; you have time to do what's necessary there,” Meeks (D-N.Y.) told NatSec Daily. Another factor that could complicate the picture: Lawmakers want to block offensive weapons from going to Israel. But F-15s, often considered to be offensive, were used to shoot down Iran’s missiles, which could raise the question of whether they should be blocked. Experts say it’s case-by-case: “Many military platforms have offensive and defensive applications. It depends on the context of their use,” JONATHAN LORD, director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security, told NatSec Daily. Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.), a former naval aviator, told NatSec Daily that they’re primarily an offensive capability since they’re most often used in air-to-ground missions. Aside from the offensive-defensive debate, Rep. BRAD SHERMAN (D-Calif.), the House Israel Allies Caucus co-chair, said Meeks isn’t wrong to do his due diligence when the delivery of F-15s is years off. “The idea that Israel's attacked by Iran — so a decision that's not going to affect anything on the ground for years has to be made right now — that's political thinking,” Sherman told NatSec Daily. “Policy thinking is, ‘this is going to affect things two or three years from now. Maybe take two or three days to think it over.’” The White House, for now, hasn’t signaled that it would condition aid to Israel. But following Israel’s deadly strike on World Central Kitchen aid workers in early April, administration officials publicly stated for the first time that the White House would consider changing its policy toward Israel if Netanyahu’s government doesn’t take steps to relieve the civilian suffering in Gaza, among other actions. Some senior administration officials have viewed the lawmakers’ push for conditions on assistance to Israel as a “good cop, bad cop” situation, a person familiar with the talks told NatSec Daily. While lawmakers pushed for guardrails on aid to Israel, it created “this level of separation between the prospect of conditionality and the administration,” said the person, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. In the administration, “some people thought that was quite useful.” The Biden administration would greatly strain ties with Israel if it conditions arms sales, so they’re happy lawmakers are putting the pressure on instead, the person said.
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | DONETSK DOUBTS: If Russia succeeds in its latest offensive to take the city of Chasiv Yar, that loss would jeopardize the security of the remaining Ukrainian-held cities in Donetsk, a senior Ukrainian official told our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA. "These cities are the last stronghold of Donetsk region, which is under the control of Ukraine,” said Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, a Ukrainian army spokesperson, noting that the cities of Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk could later come under attack. Chasiv Yar is a strategically important city located six miles from the city of Bakhmut. It’s situated on commanding heights, advantageous for defense and gaining control over the surrounding area. The Kremlin ordered that Chasiv Yar should be seized before May 9, Voloshyn said. HITTING IRAN’S WALLET: The Treasury Department stressed that sanctions on Iran could be used as a method of deterrence following its attack on Israel, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said today. "Treasury will not hesitate to work with our allies to use our sanctions authority to continue disrupting the Iranian regime's malign and destabilizing activity," Yellen said ahead of a International Monetary Fund and World Bank meeting She’ll press finance ministers who are in Washington this week to coordinate possible sanctions work with the United States. On Monday, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters that the G7 is considering sanctions on Iran as well, aiming to isolate and increase economic pressure on Tehran. AUSTIN PHONES CHINA: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN spoke to his Chinese counterpart this morning, the first time the two defense chiefs have connected in almost two years, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports (for Pros!). Austin spoke with Adm. DONG JUN, who was appointed to the role in December, by video teleconference, the Pentagon announced. The two discussed U.S.-China defense relations, Russia's war against Ukraine, the situation in the Taiwan Strait and recent provocations from North Korea, according to a readout of the call from Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER. The call marks a significant step in repairing U.S.-Chinese relations that have frayed over the last two years. In the past few weeks, the Pentagon has simultaneously engaged in military-to-military communications with China while shoring up partnerships with Japan and the Philippines, moves which the Biden administration has touted as major diplomatic achievements. AID AND ESCALATION: Thirteen aid organizations warned today that escalation between Israel and Iran could further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. “A regional conflict would likely result in significant global ramifications, including forced displacement and migration, disruptions to global supply chains and impacts on energy supplies,” wrote the groups, which include the International Rescue Committee and Save the Children, in a statement. The organizations, which operate in the Middle East and have been advocating for a cease-fire in Gaza, called on Israel and Iran to resolve the dispute “through political and diplomatic means alone.” The majority of Israelis (52 percent) oppose Israel striking Iran, while the rest supported a counterattack, according to a poll published today by Hebrew University of Jerusalem. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | IRAN LEAVES DEMS IN DISARRAY: The Iranian airstrike against Israel is expanding the already-wide chasm on the Israel-Hamas war between moderate Democrats and activist groups on the left, with clear potential pitfalls for Biden ahead of the November election, according to our own SHIA KAPOS, DUSTIN GARDINER and JOE ANUTA. While elected officials were largely supportive of Israel in the face of the Iranian strike, Shia, Dustin and Joe write “The positions of progressive and pro-Palestinian groups are only hardening and further widening the rift between the activist base and moderates in the Democratic Party just seven months before the election. The response from the pro-Palestinian left suggests the latest flashpoint in the conflict is doing little to reorient the debate at home.” The ideological calcification persists as the issue becomes a political albatross for the Biden re-election campaign. According to a POLITICO-Morning Consult poll published on Sunday, based on data collected before the Iranian strike on Israel, fully one-third of Democratic voters felt Biden was "not tough enough on Israel.” Twenty-two percent of Democrats said they’re more sympathetic toward Palestinians in the conflict than Israelis.
| | CYBERWARFARE VULNERABILITIES: A new report from tech firm Armis is underscoring the deep crisis of confidence the U.S. government is experiencing with cybersecurity leaders. Our friends at Morning Cyber (for Pros!) write that just over a third of U.S. tech leaders believe the government can actually hold its own against Russia, China and others' rapidly advancing cyber capabilities — a major blow for the U.S. cyber apparatus, which had 91 percent confidence just last year. Two in five also worried foreign adversaries could hack into the U.S. election system and more than half fretted that North Korea could bring down critical pieces of domestic infrastructure. The sobering findings come as Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and other U.S. adversaries have deepened their investments in cyberwarfare assets in recent years, deploying cyberattacks and disinformation units to spread havoc and target military and civilian infrastructure. SPY BILL TALKS: The future of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act now lies in the Senate, following a contentious path to reauthorization in the House last week. Behind the scenes, the Biden administration has been pressing both chambers to extend the law — and successfully pushing back on some proposed reforms. On the POLITICO Tech podcast, National Security Council legal adviser JOSHUA GELTZER defends the need for government spy programs amid simmering global conflicts.
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | OUT OF MISSILES: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said his country couldn’t protect against Russian airstrikes last week because it ran out of defensive missiles. In an interview with PBS’ AMNA NAWAZ, Zelenskyy brought up the strikes on the Trypilska power plant, in which seven missiles were shot down and four destroyed the plant. “Why? Because we had zero missiles. We ran out of all missiles,” Zelenskyy said. He voiced his frustration with the U.S. and allies coming to Israel’s direct defense when Iran launched missiles at the nation, saying Ukraine hasn’t been defended because it’s not a part of NATO. “I want to ask you a question, is Israel part of NATO or not?” Zelenskyy asked rhetorically. Read: Trudeau nudges defense spending closer to NATO target by our own KYLE DUGGAN
| | DIVIDING THE QUESTION: Democrats are signaling they’ll give Speaker MIKE JOHNSON a lifeline as the embattled Louisiana Republican attempts a Hail Mary play to simultaneously save his speakership and get Kyiv the aid it needs. Our colleagues at Playbook reported this morning that Biden expressed doubts about the plan to bring four separate foreign aid bills when he spoke to Johnson. But as our JENNIFER HABERKORN and ADAM CANCRYN report, the White House isn’t rejecting it either. Jennifer and Adam write Biden is “reserving judgment until he sees more details on what will be included in each component of his strategy and how exactly they might move through the House.” Moderate Democrats too are looking to provide Johnson with some cover. Rep. JARED MOSKOWITZ (D-Fla.) posted on X: “My position hasn’t changed. Massie wants the world to burn, I won’t stand by and watch. I have a bucket of water.” It follows a Sunday opinion piece from Rep. TOM SUOZZI (D-N.Y.) in the Wall Street Journal, where the New York Democrat urged Democrats to back Johnson. The breathing room comes as Johnson faces intense pressure from his conference’s right flank over his plan to bring Ukraine aid to a vote on the House floor. In a move that reminded Eric a little bit too much of his high school Model U.N. days, Johnson announced he would “divide the question” and bring four separate bills to the floor. Three bills would cover military assistance for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The fourth would combine regulations on TikTok with a Lend/Lease Act program for Ukraine and a sale of seized Russian assets. The plan is not without pitfalls for the embattled House speaker. Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) said today he’d co-sponsor Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE’s (R-Ga.) motion to vacate the speakership and called on Johnson to resign. Republicans are also threatening to defeat the rule needed to bring the bills to the floor, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA and JORDAIN CARNEY report. But minutes ago, five key House Republicans came out in support of Johnson’s move. “There is nothing our adversaries would love more than if Congress were to fail to pass critical national security aid … We need to pass this aid package this week,” Reps. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio), KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.) and TOM COLE (R-Okla.) said in a statement.
| | | |   | | | | | ABOUT TOM’S TWEET: Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) tried to explain his tweet last night that seemed to suggest that people in cars being blocked by the “pro-Hamas” protestors in Brooklyn should use force to clear the roads. “I encourage people who get stuck behind the pro-Hamas mobs blocking traffic: take matters into your own hands to get them out of the way,” he wrote. “It's time to put an end to this nonsense.” Speaking with reporters today, Cotton didn’t say whether or not he was advocating for drivers to hit protestors. But he did explain his thinking: “If you want to block traffic, especially on a major road … you absolutely don't have the right to that,” he said, adding that it’s fine if protestors want to demonstrate in parks and other public areas. BUENOS AIRES JUSTICE FOR RUSSIA: A Ukrainian man is filing suit in an Argentine court, accusing Russian troops of unlawfully detaining and torturing him in a major milestone in the fight for accountability in the war in Ukraine, according to Reuters’ ADAM JOURDAN and STEPHANIE VAN DEN BERG.
| | — Senegalese historian and diplomat ABDOULAYE BATHILY resigned from his post as U.N. envoy for Libya. He was appointed by U.N. Secretary General ANTONIO GUTERRES back in August 2022.
| | | — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: Has Biden considered having an Iran strategy? — SAMUEL CHARAP and SERGEY RADCHENKO, Foreign Affairs: The talks that could have ended the war in Ukraine — LINA al-HATHLOUL, The Guardian: Saudi Arabia is rebranding itself as a moderate country, but what’s the truth? Just ask our female activists
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Counterspace trends: an evolving global landscape — U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 9 a.m.: A U.S.-Ukraine partnership forum — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Energy Department and National Nuclear Security Administration atomic energy defense activities in review of the defense authorization request for FY2025 and the future years defense program — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Modernizing U.S. alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Air Force fiscal year 2025 budget request — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Roundtable: executing AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) pillar II: ITAR (International traffic in arms regulations) exemptions for the UK and Australia — House Oversight Committee, 10 a.m.: Defending America from the Chinese communist party's political warfare, part I — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: FY2025 request for the Department of Defense — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: "United Nations Relief and Works Agency at the Epicenter of the Gaza Catastrophe," as part of the Gaza: The Human Toll series — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 p.m.: India in Modi's third term — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 2 p.m.: Foreign agents legislation: between democratic resilience and weaponized transparency," focusing on Russia — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 2 p.m.: Transatlantic transition: the choices ahead for Europe and America," focusing on upcoming elections in America and the European Union — House Foreign Affairs Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia Subcommittee: 2 p.m.: The despotic duo: Russo-Iranian cooperation and threats to U.S. interests — Senate Judiciary Privacy, Technology, and the Law Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: Artificial intelligence and election deepfakes — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee, 3 p.m.: Department of the Navy FY2025 budget request for seapower and projection forces — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee, 3:30 p.m.: Military department personnel chiefs: personnel posture — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 4 p.m.: A book discussion on DAVID SANGER’s "New Cold Wars: China's rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West” Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is making her debut today as NatSec Daily’s resident bad cop. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who rounds out our squad of good cops.
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When threats come from anywhere, you have to be able to communicate everywhere. Lockheed Martin’s cross- domain connectivity is key to keeping every mission on track. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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