Sharp tongues and wishful thinking

Apr 16, 2024

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ The annual fight over fiscal sustainability.

→ SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA on Belarus' fight for free and fair elections.

→ Travel agent to the (Hill) stars, SCOTT MCCORD, celebrates 25 years of miracle-making.

DRIVING THE DAY

THE ANTI-TAXERS — Every budget day brings a fresh interrogation of fiscal sustainability's relationship with the federal government.

Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will insist her government is not spending beyond its means. She will rhyme off all the friendly indicators she can fit into a speech and the accompanying budget tome.

— Damned if you do or don't: Freeland's left-leaning critics will tut-tut her for not spending enough as her right-leaning critics will roll their eyes at her reliance on G7 rankings as the national debt ticks up.

The anti-tax lobby unleashed a final public relations defense in advance of budget day. Freeland has promised to stick to her guns of prudence, which means deficits aren't supposed to grow. But a three-week roadshow shoveled out billions in promised spending. The business community is petrified that new taxes will pay for it all.

CBC News is reporting that today's budget will include a tax increase that will affect "less than 1 percent of Canadians" — though it's "not clear exactly what form the tax measure will take."

— Sharp tongues: Business Council of Canada CEO GOLDY HYDER scored space on the Financial Post op-ed pages to boast about big business' bona fides — and blame Ottawa for job losses in the private sector.

"Instead of growing the economy, federal government decisions are downsizing Canadian companies through a combination of higher taxes, burdensome regulatory red tape, and capricious changes to the country’s competition laws," Hyder wrote.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce raised the specter of fleeing investors.

“What we don’t need is new taxes, more rules and regulations, or more anti-business rhetoric," said CEO PERRIN BEATTY. "If the government keeps telling investors that they aren’t welcome here, they will go where they are wanted.”

— Not just Liberals: Hyder also took a shot at any politician who puts big biz in their crosshairs: "Why … do some politicians claim to champion Canadian workers while condemning the Canadian companies that employ the greatest numbers of them? How can those elected officials, from across the political spectrum, reconcile venerating workers while vilifying the companies they work for?"

That reads like a message for PIERRE POILIEVRE, who lashed out at honchos in a Vancouver speech earlier this year, just as much as Freeland and JUSTIN TRUDEAU.

But a huffy fight with Poilievre is one for another day. Today, Freeland's budget will launch a thousand op-eds. Especially if somebody's taxes go up.

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For your radar

PLAYING CATCH UP — Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY’s deputy minister, DAVID MORRISON, will visit China by the end of the month, according to a senior government official not authorized to talk publicly about details on the upcoming trip.

— Signs of rapprochement: Morrison’s trip will follow one made last month by a delegation that included Liberal MP MAJID JOWHARI, NDP MP DON DAVIES, Conservative Sen. VICTOR OH, Independent Senators Group Sen. PAUL MASSICOTTE and independent MP HAN DONG.

— Outlier: Joly has yet to visit China since her appointment as foreign minister in late 2021. She arrives in Capri, Italy today for the first of two G7 foreign ministers meetings this year. Joly is the only G7 foreign minister to have not visited China in the past year.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

TEEN SPIRIT — Teens in Canada are most worried about the cost of living and housing affordability. CIVIX's annual student budget consultation probed the views of 1,932 kids aged 12-18 between November and February.

The students want wealthy people and corporations to “contribute more” to society.

Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND's budget has pledged billions to soothe the nerves of anxious millennials and Gen-Zers. CIVIX's survey captures the youngest of the latter generation, and scoops up the eldest members of Gen Alpha.

Students broadly support dental care, pharmacare and mental health funding.

Here's what jumped out from CIVIX's work, which the civic engagement nonprofit sent to Freeland last month at the tail end of pre-budget consultations.

— Cost of living: The teen set is unimpressed with cost-of-living fixes. "Most feel government policies haven’t helped, and some feel these policies worsened their household’s financial situation," CIVIX found. The point goes to PIERRE POILIEVRE on that one.

Students blame Ottawa for affordability woes over the corporate interests often blamed by Ottawa. Forty-three percent agreed that "federal government policies are more to blame for the rising cost of living than price gouging by big corporations."

— Climate change: Students sent Ottawa a warning shot about carbon pricing, too. Sixty-five percent believe Canada has a responsibility to act on climate change “even if the countries with the largest emissions don't follow suit.” But only 37 percent support “stricter”environmental policies “even if it means consumers pay higher prices.”

Again, Poilievre appears to be scoring points with the kids.

— The future: Teens are also doubtful they will ever be able to afford a home. "Nearly half believe young Canadians will be worse off than their parents and expect the Canadian economy to decline," CIVIX reported.

Freeland's pre-budget roadshow worked to address those concerns, acknowledging in daily talking points that "hard work isn’t paying off like it did for previous generations."

— Trust: Students really trust doctors and nurses. Eighty-nine percent expressed a “moderate” amount or “great deal” of trust in those health professionals. Teachers (79 percent), military personnel (77 percent), public health officials (73 percent) and police (70 percent) also scored highly.

Tech companies (51 percent) landed in the midrange. Large corporations lagged at 38 percent.

— Bad news: The media scored poorly, at 36 percent, but not as poorly as elected officials.

— Oh, oh: Only 27 percent of students trust the country's politicians.

TALK OF THE TOWN

The party for travel agent Scott McCord at the Canada Aviation and Space Museum

Revelers surrounded by aircraft, a fitting scene | Photo by Nick Taylor-Vaisey

MCCORDFEST '24 — Only one man in Ottawa celebrates 25 years owning a travel agency with a party at Canada's national aviation museum.

SCOTT MCCORD's Monday evening bash started with a complimentary wet towel, glass of sparkling wine and paper cone of chips. Porter lounge pillows adorned seats on one side of the space, Air Canada the other. Servers pushed AC galley carts with hors d'oeuvres.

— Whozzat? McCord and his team have booked travel for countless Hill people across party lines — often on short notice, usually in some kind of emergency.

— Trademarks: McCord devotees share several common experiences.

→ He does not reliably start a conversation with "hello," and he really doesn't leave time to say goodbye. Attendees joked they enjoy the abuse more than the bookings.

→ He picks up the phone at 3 a.m.

→ Three gruff words often delivered urgently via concise voicemail: "McCord. Call me."

→ Many years-long clients met him in the flesh for the first time at the aviation museum.

— Oh, the places they go: McCord's magic is rescuing the Ottawa set from faraway places, whether they're marooned on vacation or needed in an emergency meeting back home. Partygoers pinned their names on a map in the corner of the room marking their exfiltrations.

→ The countries we noted: Haiti, Peru, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, Cameroon, Japan, Poland, Indonesia, India, Jordan, Israel, Italy, Germany, France, the U.K.

— Video tributes: RALPH GOODALE, BOB RAE, JOE CLARK and MAUREEN MCTEER, PETER MANSBRIDGE, STEPHEN HARPER and JOHN BAIRD.

CATHERINE CLARK emceed. Tory MP ADAM CHAMBERS made remarks. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE also called up the soon-to-be-moonbound JEREMY HANSEN — a McCord client — for a speakerphone greeting.

— Spotted in the crowd: ANITA ANAND, GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR, GUDIE HUTCHINGS, MONA FORTIER, CHRISTY CLARK, KATIE TELFORD, RAY NOVAK, PAMELA WALLIN, RANDY HOBACK, SHUV MAJUMDAR, ERIN O’TOOLE, JONATHAN WILKINSON. Two of the Canadian Tenors — clients, natch — serenaded the crowd.

— Anonymous anecdote: "I can attest to Scott’s high level of attention to details when he contacted me to let me know he was moving my boss to a flight leaving 45 minutes later. Why? They were seated next to another MP with whom they had (ahem) recently broken up."

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will chair a meeting of the Cabinet at 10 a.m. He will be in the House at 4 p.m. for the budget speech.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will attend Cabinet. She will hold a 2:30 p.m. presser in the budget lockup, participate in a 3:50 p.m. photo op with the PM, then head into the House to present her budget.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has called a press conference for 8:25 a.m., outside the east doors of West Block.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak to media at 11 a.m., then again after the budget has been released.

— Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET will share his response to the budget around 4:20 p.m.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will be in the budget lockup. At 5:30 p.m., she will join the Coalition for Healthy School Food at a reception in the Wellington Building to celebrate the development of a national school food program.

A message from Google:

DULY NOTED

1:15 p.m. Former finance minister BILL MORNEAU will moderate a virtual Wilson Center discussion between Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM and U.S. Federal Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL in an event titled, “The Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy.”

We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

HALLWAY CONVERSATION

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was a former teacher and self-described housewife catapulted to run for president of Belarus when her candidate husband was arrested in 2020. | Crystal Thomas/POLITICO

BELARUS CALLING — You'd never know SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA was staying at the Andaz in the ByWard Market — until you spotted the small motorcade of jet-black SUVs that ferried her to a Monday morning meeting with Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU.

Tsikhanouskaya is a Belarusian political activist who now lives with her two kids in Lithuania. Her husband, activist and dissident SERGEI TIKHANOVSKY, is serving an 18-year prison sentence in Belarus. He was detained by authorities before he could make good on a plan to run for president. Tsikhanouskaya ran in his place in 2020 after he was detained.

She lost the election widely dismissed as rigged.

In a conversation with Playbook on Monday, her to-do list tumbled out in paragraphs. Tsikhanouskaya, who was recently in Greece and Cyprus, is selling Trudeau and other allies on assistance for political prisoners, war veterans who fought alongside Ukrainians, and an independent media. She hopes to take Belarusian President ALEKSANDR LUKASHENKO to international court. Most of all, she hopes for free and fair elections in Belarus.

Tsikhanouskaya was also in Ottawa to push for more effective sanctions of Lukashenko’s regime (Ottawa announced some) — and to advocate for fellow expats who risk detention if they return home to renew passports.

Playbook sat down with her in the Andaz restaurant immediately before she left for a tête-à-tête with Trudeau. We spoke about the personal side of a life in exile.

How do you talk to your kids about this life?

When I left Belarus in 2020, for maybe about a year, I didn't tell the children their dad was in jail because we were sure we would return to Belarus. Of course, then I had to explain that their daddy is a hero. He's in prison. He's fighting with a dictatorship.

Then the war came in Ukraine. We live in Lithuania, and many Ukrainian children came to Lithuania. They're communicating in schools. One day, my daughter came to me and asked for some money. I asked her, "What do you need money for?" And she told me, "I will buy a tank and release my daddy."

I want to hope that children who are facing their parents fighting for a better future for them, they will cherish what we want to gain for our country. That they will cherish and strengthen democracy in Belarus when we will be able to gain it, and they will value all the sacrifice that their parents made for their future.

[I hope] they will also hold not business-based policy, but values-based policy. This is what we want to see from the democratic world now. Business is important. Trade is important. But no money is important until one people isn't killing another. You can't pretend you don't see it, or don't hear it. We are there. We have defended what you have.

Four years ago, you had left a teaching career to raise your kids. Now you're here. Life as a politician and activist wasn't your plan — until it was. What's it like to look back?

I was like a housewife. I have an older son who had special needs, so I had to rehabilitate him. I thought I always was behind my husband. My husband was a very strong person. I allowed myself to think about myself as a “weak woman.” You know, “I'm just with children.”

But when life puts you in such circumstances, when you have to go and fight and mobilize all your power, you can do this. People usually underestimate their inner strength. I have to learn a lot of things simultaneously. At the beginning, I didn't understand many, many things — structures, organizations, people. You don't know how to communicate with presidents and ministers. You think these are people from a different world, but they're ordinary people who want to help.

I still can't believe I'm doing this. But when you have motivation, when you have a team, you can break the walls, you can break the rules. You can do unprecedented things when you will feel responsibility for victims of this regime.

MEDIA ROOM

— From POLITICO'S KYLE DUGGAN this morning: "Trudeau nudges defense spending closer to NATO target."

— A timely pre-budget read from the Globe's CHRIS HANNAY: “Do companies keep their job-creation promises after receiving government subsidies? Ottawa won’t say.”

— The Star’s RAISA PATEL fact checks NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH. The claim in question: “Liberals and Conservatives are ‘controlled’ by corporations and the lobbyists.”

— The University of Alberta's JARED WESLEY explains in The Tyee why a Conservative federal government would create political headaches for Alberta's UCP.

— Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister has added her name to the list of DONALD TRUMP supporters, our colleagues in London report. LIZ TRUSS told LBC News “it has to be” Trump in the White House after the forthcoming election.

— Meanwhile, here's what happened on Day 1 of Trump's trial.

— DAN LAUZON, a d-comm to former finance minister BILL MORNEAU once upon a time, explains to iPolitics why he loves budget day so much.

PROZONE

Don’t miss our latest newsletter for Pro subscribers by SUE ALLAN and ZI-ANN LUM: 30,000 robots vs. Canada’s productivity challenge.

In other news for Pros:

— Add sand, lose sand, repeat. The climate conundrum for beaches.

— NOAA says hot oceans seeing fourth ‘global coral bleaching event’.

— U.S. Environmental Protection Agency nears completion of power sector regs.

— North Carolina regulators permit lithium project.

— Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and transport department to hold hearing on rewards programs.

PLAYBOOKERS

BIrthdays: HBD to Sen. FRANCES LANKIN (70!), as well as NDP MP PETER JULIAN and Liberal MP JULIE DABRUSIN.

Celebrate your day with the Playbook community. Send us the details. We’ll let everyone know.

Spotted: International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN and Ambassador STÉPHANE DION in Paris. Hussen is in the City of Light for the International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan and Its Neighbors.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Hill day netted a private meeting with Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND.

Noted: Intergovernmental Affairs Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC, launching a Canadian Internal Trade Data and Information Hub … People’s Party Leader MAXIME BERNIER signaling there’s a week left for hopeful PPC election candidates to submit their candidacy.

Movers and shakers: MIKE VAN SOELEN, a JOHN BAIRD aide in the early Harper years, has left his post as Navigator managing principal after nine years.

Media mentions: Radio-Canada Quebec regional director JULIE LEMIEUX has quit her post for a new gig.

ON THE HILL

→ Find House committees here.

→ Keep track of Senate committees here.

9 a.m. Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED will be at the Senate Indigenous peoples committee’s study on the implementation of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act.

9 a.m. Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority CEO CHARL VAN NIEKERK will be at the Senate national finance committee as part of senators’ study on Supplementary Estimates (C).

9 a.m. Transport Canada environmental policy director general PAULA VIEIRA and the department’s chief economist CHRISTIAN DEA will be witnesses at the Senate transport committee’s study on the impact of climate change on critical infrastructure.

9:30 a.m. The Senate rules, procedure and the rights of Parliament committee will meet to talk about committee structure and mandates.

11 a.m. House Clerk ERIC JANSE will be at the House procedure and House affairs committee to take part in a “requested discussion on witnesses at the bar of the House.”

11 a.m. Ethics watchdog KONRAD VON FINCKENSTEIN and lobbying watchdog NANCY BÉLANGER will be at the House access to information committee to take questions on Main Estimates.

11 a.m. The House science committee will continue its study on the distribution of federal government funding among post-secondary institutions.

6:30 p.m. Canada’s wildfires will be the topic of the day at the Senate agriculture and forestry committee meeting.

Behind closed doors: The House transport committee has “committee business” on its agenda; the House agriculture committee will go over a draft report of its study on efforts to stabilize food prices.

TRIVIA

Monday’s answer: The Britannic and the Olympic were sister ships of the Titanic.

Props to KATELIN CUMMINGS, JENN KEAY, LAURA JARVIS, MARC LEBLANC, GORDON RANDALL, J. D. M. STEWART, FELIX BERNIER, MARCEL MARCOTTE, BOB GORDON, JOHN ECKER, RODDY MCFALL, MATT DELISLE, CHRIS RANDS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and MARK AGNEW.

Today’s question: Name the first senators appointed under the Independent Advisory Board for Senate Appointments.

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

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