GREETINGS AND WELCOME to Global Playbook. We’re gearing up for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, which kick off in Washington next week. I’m Suzanne Lynch, preparing to head to the U.S. capital to cover a packed agenda of get-togethers, speeches and closed-door dinners as top figures from the financial and political world gather. Tree change: As a former resident of D.C., I’m dismayed to hear the city’s famed cherry blossoms have already passed “peak bloom” (blame climate change), while more than 150 of them are being removed this year to make room for repairs. Luckily, Japan is on hand to bail America out: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced during his state visit this week that Tokyo is sending a fresh supply of 250 trees to Washington. Speaking of Kishida’s trip: It was quite the guest list at the lavish state dinner hosted at the White House by U.S. President Joe Biden for Japan’s PM and his wife Yuko Kishida Wednesday. While celebs like Robert De Niro, Paul Simon and Bill and Hillary Clinton grabbed most of the headlines, Playbook also spotted a healthy smattering of top brass CEOs: Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase and BlackRock’s Larry Fink rubbed shoulders with the likes of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Making a splash: After Dimon made headlines at Davos earlier this year by praising former U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies — prompting speculation in some quarters that he could be eying a political job in the next administration — it seems the high-profile banker is keeping his political options open, tacking close to the current commander-in-chief. What’s not in doubt: The 68-year-old is eager to weigh in on politics. As my colleague Zach Warmbrodt reported earlier this week, Dimon used his annual letter to shareholders to plead for U.S. military support for Ukraine, warning that a loss for Kyiv would be a “disaster for the whole free world.” Speaking Trump’s language: “Ukraine’s struggle is our struggle, and ensuring their victory is ensuring America first,” Dimon said. Which sure sounds like a political speech to us. FINANCE FOLK COME TO WASHINGTON TAKING STOCK: This year’s annual gathering will be an important one for the IMF and World Bank, as they mark the 80th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference. That gathering in New Hampshire back in 1944 of representatives from more than 40 countries shaped the modern financial architecture and monetary system as we know it. That was then; this is now. Eighty years later, it’s clear it’s falling woefully short. Expect next week to be dominated by calls for reform of the international financial system, to reflect a world where the West is no longer king, and renewed calls for debt relief for poorer countries caught in severe debt distress. (The World Bank itself estimates that developing countries have a debt burden of a whopping $9 trillion collectively.) Protests, protests, protests: Civil society groups are preparing for a “week of action” focused on climate justice, under the hashtag #FixTheFinance. The group, which includes ActionAid, Climate Action Network, Oxfam and 350.org., is planning events across the world and in D.C. Keep it lean, keep ‘em keen: Previewing the spring meetings Thursday, World Bank chief Ajay Banga was keen to highlight the clean-up work his own institution has done to make the lender fit for purpose, on the back of G20 proposals. “Speed and simplicity” are the new watch-words, Banga reckons, as he pointed to new measures like standardizing procurement processes and a reduction in the time it takes for projects to be approved. Clap on the back: The spring meetings will be an opportunity for the World Bank to “celebrate that progress,” Banga told journalists at the press conference — which will be news to the thousands of delegates from recipient countries who have yet to reap the benefits of this new-look World Bank. Glass half empty: Meanwhile, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva struck a downbeat note in a speech at the Atlantic Council Thursday. The world is heading into the “tepid 20s” — “a sluggish and disappointing decade,” she said, setting out a range of challenges facing the global economy. “It is tempting to breathe a sigh of relief … but there are still plenty of things to worry about,” she added. She’s got a point: Finance peeps are meeting at a time of multiple challenges for the global economy. National budgets are under pressure across the globe, not least as countries plow money into defense. A study by Bloomberg this week analyzed just how much it’s going to cost NATO countries to get battlefield-ready — a cool $10 trillion, which will have a knock-on effect on public debt levels and constrain national budgets. They just can’t shake it off: Inflation is the other big talking point. Try as they might, central banks just can’t seem to tame rising prices, particularly in the United States, where inflation rose unexpectedly for the third consecutive month in March — a less-than-optimal situation for Joe Biden less than seven months out from an election. On Thursday, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde — who’ll be in town next week — left interest rates unchanged, but signaled the first rate cut since 2019 will come in June. Beijing’s big problem: Over in China, things look very different. Figures out Thursday show inflation has stalled and the economy is grappling with the threat of deflation. With weak domestic consumer demand hampering the country’s economic recovery, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Beijing against flooding the global market with excess products in a mammoth visit to China that wrapped up this week. Intriguingly, neither Banga nor Georgieva wanted to be drawn on the China overcapacity problem when probed at their pre-meeting press appearances. Food influencer: But it wasn’t Yellen’s takes on the Chinese economy that got Beijing buzzing. After the Treasury sec unwittingly tried some funky fungus on her trip to China last July, it was Yellen’s culinary exploits that truly gripped the nation. Alas, while Yellen indulged in Sichuan dumplings, Peking duck and twice-cooked pork, and washed it down with an “excellent” Flying Fist IPA, it seems hallucinogenic mushrooms weren’t on the menu this time around. NOT JUST NAVALNY PUTIN’S PRISONERS: It’s been two months since Alexei Navalny‘s death in a far-flung Russian prison, and already it seems the world’s attention has shifted as war continues to rage in the Middle East. But for many, the nightmare continues, as Russian President Vladimir Putin holds hundreds of political prisoners in jails across the country. Detained for speaking out: Among them is Vladimir Kara-Murza, a 42-year-old activist and journalist who was arrested in April 2022 and sentenced a year later to 25 years in prison for spreading “false” information about Russia and its invasion of Ukraine. At the time, Navalny, speaking from his own jail cell, denounced the arrest as “unlawful, shameless and simply fascist.” Getting the call: Speaking to Playbook this week in Brussels following an address to European lawmakers, his wife Evgenia Kara-Murza remembers when she got that most dreaded call. “I was at home with the kids in Virginia, and we were expecting Vladimir to come home to celebrate Easter with us. Instead, I got a call from a detention center in Moscow from Vladimir, saying ‘please do not worry, everything’s fine. Don’t worry, but I’ve been detained.’” Preparing for the worst: In many ways, Evgenia, who has lived in the greater Washington D.C. area since the 2000s when Vladimir was posted there as a journalist, says she was not surprised. “My husband has publicly opposed Vladimir Putin since he came to power, and that was almost a quarter of a century ago.” Kara-Murza, who holds dual British and Russian citizenship, was a close ally of Boris Nemtsov, who was assassinated in Moscow in 2015. Early warnings: Even before his arrest, Kara-Murza was poisoned twice — in 2015 and 2017. “Both times he was in a coma with multiple organ failure, and basically had to relearn how to walk,” says Evgenia. “I remember after the second poisoning, he told me — ‘well, the attention by the Russian authorities tells me that I’m doing the right thing,’ so there is no stopping my husband. I know that. And I deeply admire him and respect him for his position.” Becoming his voice: Like Yulia Navalnaya, Evgenia has stepped into the limelight, becoming the de-facto spokesperson for her husband’s cause. “When he was arrested, I realized that I needed to become his voice, and I needed to continue his work the best I could, so this was never my choice. I never wanted to become a public figure, but this is what I needed to do for him and for my kids, and for my country. I am in a much better position than people back in Russia. I can speak out. I can be vocal about those things. And I can make sure that the voices of those people whom the regime is trying to silence in the country are still heard around the globe.” Losing touch: Kara-Murza was moved to a penal colony in Siberia last year from a detention center in Moscow, his lawyers say. The last time Evgenia spoke to him was in December, when he was allowed a 15-minute call with his kids. “We have three children, so that was five minutes per kid. I had to literally stand there with a timer,” she says. Next steps: Now, her main concern is her husband’s health. “He has developed polyneuropathy since the poisonings. This is damage to his nervous system that deteriorates with time. Without proper attention, proper medical attention, physical exercise — all those things that he cannot do in a disciplinary cell — his condition is slowly deteriorating.” Holding Putin to account: Evgenia sees the plight of political prisoners in Russia as bound up with the war in Ukraine: “The West must continue to support Ukraine. Ukraine’s victory would weaken the regime in the Kremlin, which would bring closer the day when the regime collapses. Political persecution in the country will only continue for as long as Vladimir Putin is allowed to stay in power.” IN OTHER NEWS NEW JOB: Just in time for next week’s meetings, the IMF has bagged a high profile hire: James Astill, best known as the former author of the Economist’s Lexington column, is joining the external relations team at the IMF after two decades at the British news mag, most recently as its Asia editor. MARK RUTTE’S NEXT MOVE: It’s the worst-kept secret of the past few months: The NATO top job is up for grabs and it’s got outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s name all over it. But it’s not a done deal. While Rutte has the crucial backing of the United States and Western Europe to replace Jens Stoltenberg, not all NATO members are on board. Hungary digs in: A spokesman for Hungary’s leader Viktor Orbán said Thursday that Budapest is opposed to the Dutchman. “He is not the candidate we’re looking for. It is high time as a matter of fact to have a Central European candidate,” Zoltán Kovács told a group of journalists, including POLITICO. “It’s still an open contest.” July summit looms: U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith recently said she wants a decision well before the mid-July summit when NATO leaders will get together in Washington to mark the 75th anniversary of the transatlantic alliance. But Rutte still needs to convince not just Hungary, but also Turkey, Slovakia and Romania (which is fielding its own candidate — its president, Klaus Iohannis). Expect lots of behind-the scenes “consensus-building” in the coming weeks. RIGHT-WINGERS CONFAB: As millions of voters head to the polls in June to elect members of the European Parliament, Brussels is bracing itself for a right-wing surge as contentious issues like migration policy and skepticism toward the EU’s “Green deal” top citizens’ concerns. It means those on the right are feeling pretty confident. NatCon on the Senne: Next week, Brussels will play host to NatCon — an international gathering of national conservatives. Among those attending: Viktor Orbán, Britain’s former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, who’s toying with (yet another) political comeback as he rides high on a birthday video (and maybe a job offer?) from old chum Donald Trump. Later in the month, Budapest will host CPAC, the U.S. right-wing jamboree. Let’s see if the gathering is a little more welcoming to the free press this time. Occupy Brussels! For more on how Orbán has been pouring money and resources into beefing up Hungary’s influence within the EU, check out this week’s POLITICO magazine cover story by yours truly. It shows how the PM has cast himself as a new kind of Euroskeptic: while those advocating for Brexit campaigned to leave the EU, Hungary wants to stay in the club, and change it from the inside. PROGRAMMING NOTE MARK YOUR DIARY: Global Playbook will land in your inbox next Wednesday, April 17 through Saturday April 20. Get in touch with any news, tips or invites. GLOBAL PLAYBOOK couldn’t happen without Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich. | 
Comments
Post a Comment