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Global Playbook

By Suzanne Lynch

WELCOME to the weekend! The IMF World Bank Spring Meetings may be drawing to a close but there’s plenty of activity to keep things interesting.

Finance ministers and governors from Latin America meet with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva later this morning, while World Bank boss Ajay Banga and other officials are heading off on a multilateral development bank retreat (spoiler alert — they’re not going far).

Meanwhile, all eyes will turn to the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue from the IMF this afternoon when the U.S. House of Representatives holds a ground-breaking vote that could finally unlock long-stalled aid to Ukraine.

IMFC LATEST

WHEN IS A JOINT COMMUNIQUE NOT A JOINT COMMUNIQUE? When no one signs it. Yesterday, the IMF’S key advisory body, the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), concluded its plenary session without reaching agreement on a shared communiqué. Instead, chair Mohammed Al-Jadaan issued a “chair's statement” that side-stepped the geopolitical elephant in the room, acknowledging only the economic risks posed by war.

Why it matters: The IMFC, which meets at the spring and annual meetings, has been unable to agree on a communiqué since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Given the rhetoric we’ve been hearing all week about the importance of multilateralism, the failure of ministers to reach consensus is lame, and sends a worrying signal that by “agreeing to disagree” the world’s foremost financial institutions are giving aggressor nations (i.e. Russia) a free pass.

Details: Playbook is told by multiple sources in the room during Friday’s plenary session that while the debate was robust, there were no fireworks, with officials accepting on the eve of the plenary that a communiqué was beyond reach. Among those who called out Russia during the closed-door session were the Nordic and Baltic countries, Canada, and the Netherlands.

"It was not possible for us to approve a joint communique which did not explicitly and directly mention Russia, which wages a war in Ukraine that has all kinds of economic consequences across the world," Finnish Finance Minister Riikka Purra told reporters after the meeting.

Middle East: With the situation in the Middle East changing by the hour, there was some — but not much — discussion of the Israel-Gaza war and the deepening Iran-Israel crisis. One risk, officials said, in calling out Russia was that some pro-Palestinian countries would demand that Israel be also name-checked for its activities in Gaza. The situation in Sudan was also raised.

The fudge: In the end, the “chair’s statement” fudged the issue. “While recognizing the IMFC is not the forum to resolve geopolitical and security issues and these issues will be discussed in other fora, IMFC members acknowledged that these situations have significant impacts on the global economy. Today’s era must not be of war and conflict.”

BUSMAN'S HOLIDAY

WORKING TOGETHER: It’s a working weekend for the leaders of the world’s biggest multilateral lenders, as they gather for their first ever retreat in an effort to boost cooperation and pool resources.

Staycation-time: While talk of a “retreat” may conjure up images of jamborees around the camp-fire or reflective walks in the woods, the leaders are in fact meeting six blocks down the street at the headquarters of the Inter-American Development Bank (though the former hotel is a unique and light-filled space on New York Avenue).

Getting the band together: “We need to work as a system,” IDB chief Ilan Goldfajn said in an interview, as he explained the point of today’s gathering. “We need to make it easier, less costly for countries to work with us — maximizing resources, sharing platforms. It’s also about scale.”

Plan of action: Representatives from almost a dozen multilateral development banks (MDB) — from the World Bank to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to the African Development Bank — will be in attendance.

Specifics: The group aims to share best practices. For example, the IDB, the biggest lender to Latin America and the Caribbean, launched a platform six months ago that helps hedge against the risks of foreign currency fluctuations which often deter private companies from investing.

Debt swap: Another proposal, outlined by Goldfajn, is debt swaps, whereby the IDB guarantees the debt of vulnerable countries who can then benefit from cheaper debt. One example is last year’ debt swap which saw Ecuador invest some of the savings into conserving the Galapagos Islands. “Now they want to do that for the Amazon,” says Goldfajn. “We said: 'Let’s try.' ”

Seize the moment: Today’s gathering has come about by a quirk of timing — the IDB, which focuses on Latin America and the Caribbean, is currently chairing the MDB group. It coincides with Brazil’s presidency of the G20, with Rio placing reform of multilateral development banks at the heart of its agenda. Expect a joint statement today at the close of the meeting.

Top bankers gather: Also today, heavy-hitters from the U.S., EU and British finance world meet for the ominous-sounding "Trilateral Principals Level Exercise" but which is in fact an important gathering of finance types who will discuss their respective regulatory and finance regimes. Among those attending are Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey — one noticeable absentee is Christine Lagarde, though representatives from the ECB and EU Commissioner Mairead McGuinness will be in attendance.

IDA POW-WOW

SUNDAY GATHERING: For those of you planning to sample Washington’s thriving Sunday brunch scene, spare a thought for those who will be hard at work. A key meeting of the International Development Association (IDA), the part of the World Bank that gives grants and low-interest loans to the world’s poorest countries, opens Sunday.

Talking strategy: The meeting is part of the “replenishment process” — a stock-take that happens every three years — with stake-holders thrashing out details of the next round of funding, ahead of a key decision in December. Given the money involved, the stakes are high — a $93 billion financial package was agreed on for the years 2022-2025. World Bank President Banga has already called for the next replenishment to exceed that.

Show me the money: Officials involved in the process say that the focus this weekend will be pretty technical, with the real political battle over “financing scenarios” — i.e. how much donor countries should cough up — due to take place in the next meeting, which will be in June in Kathmandu, Nepal. A heads-of-state summit is also scheduled for later this month in Nairobi, Kenya, at which African countries will set out their own priorities.

Help where it’s needed: The history of the IDA reflects the global economic story of the last few decades. While the IDA was once a major funder to Asia, that changed as countries like India and China became economic success stories. Africa is now firmly the largest recipient of IDA grants and loans by far, a reflection of its continuing economic and political difficulties, and the devastating impact of climate change on the continent.

“The IDA countries are in an unprecedented set of crises,” Akihiko Nishio, vice president of development finance at the World Bank, told POLITICO. “The Covid pandemic left some real scars — delays in education, supply chains. Then came the Ukraine war and its repercussions in terms of higher food and energy prices,” he said.

Food insecurity, climate change and debt were problems even before Covid, he added. “I’ve never seen a situation like this where these countries are being hit from multiple directions. The financing needs are huge — huge and growing.”

AROUND TOWN

PIZZA AND BEER: The IMF’s HQ1 was buzzing Friday evening at a reception for Japanese staff, with copious amounts of pizza, soda and beer available for consumption.

HEALTHY OPTION: If you’ve been stocking up on chocolate-covered cashews and candy bars that are selling like wild-fire at the IMF cafe, check out the fruit bar in the HQ1 restaurant where freshly chopped fruit is sold by the pound. You’ve no excuse …

CATCH SOME BASEBALL: The Washington Nationals baseball team takes on the Houston Astros this afternoon at the Nationals’ park in southeast D.C. The fun continues Sunday at 1.35 p.m. if you miss today’s action. #GoNats!

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Global Playbook will be back in your inboxes next Friday, before heading to the Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles. Do get in touch if you’re heading that way.

AGENDA

— 9 a.m. Closed-door Roundtable: Scaling up climate finance: different approaches to credit enhancements. Cedar Hall, IMF.

— 9.30 a.m. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva meets with finance ministers and central bank governors for Latin America, Canada and the United States. IMF Conference Hall 1.

— 11 a.m. Leveraging fiscal rules and frameworks to navigate today’s fiscal challenges. Meeting Halls A & B. Speakers include Mario Marcel, Chile’s finance minister; Sri Mulyani, Indonesia's finance minister; Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF; Vitro Gaspar, director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF; Maarten Verwey from the European Commission.

— 12 p.m. High-level Trilateral Principals Level Exercise meeting. Among those due to attend: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen; Gary Gensler, chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission; Mairead McGuinness, EU Commissioner for financial services, financial stability and Capital Markets Union; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey; U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell; Sam Woods, CEO of the Prudential Regulation Authority; ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos; Claudia Buch, chair of the ECB’s Supervisory Board.

Thanks to editor Jones Hayden.

 

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Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1

 

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