| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan with Phelim Kine | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → A peek inside TIFF MACKLEM's mailbag. → MICHAEL KOVRIG on the Chinese Communist Party mindset. → Who's up, who's down in Canadian politics this week. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
“I'd like to end this with ‘regards,’ but I just can't,” wrote one correspondent to Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. | Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images | DEAR TIFF — Hope this email finds you well. When Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM appeared on CBC’s "The Current" last October to explain and defend his monetary policy decisions, he told host MATT GALLOWAY, “many Canadians write us directly.” Boy, do they ever. Playbook got its hands on a trove of mail addressed to Macklem and the governing council from spring to fall 2023, as the bank’s painful rate increases were reaching their peak. An Access-to-Information request by Playbook turned up 138 pages of raw emotions, unsolicited advice and ALL CAPS appeals — along with some unconventional personal lobbying efforts. — On the verge: A single mom a child with special needs wrote from B.C. to say she was “out of rope” over her variable-rate mortgage and would have to sell her home if interest rates went up again July 12. The key rate went up to 5 percent, where it has remained. A person in their mid-50s wrote to say they purchased a house four years prior, but that July hike would make it “impossible for me to pay my new mortgage and the loss of a stable home for the family appears highly likely and imminent.” Someone from Ontario told Macklem: “I used up all my RRSP savings to pay my sky-rocketed mortgage payments and next month I'll have to start using my three kids' RESP monies to pay our mortgage payments.” — Felt betrayed: A father of five wrote to say he took the governor at his word in 2020 when he said interest rates would be low for a long time. The letter writer secured a variable-rate mortgage which has since doubled. “The only choice now for my family is to move to America where you don’t have to have legacy family wealth to own a modest family home,” he wrote. “I cannot express the strange mix of sadness and anger I am feeling uprooting our family.” He acknowledged the housing crisis was not the fault of the central bank and that Macklem has an “extremely hard job.” But the governor “spoke directly to Canadians — directly to me — and made a promise that we banked our future on,” he wrote. “I’m not sure what I expect from sending this note. There’s nothing that can be done, and I don’t send it so that you feel badly. It’s just that someone has to know and be aware the toll this is taking on ordinary people.”
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“The morning announcement that you still aren’t satisfied with your latest omelette — not quite how you’d like it, eh,” begins this letter to Tiff Macklem. | The Bank of Canada | — The friendliest critics: While some accused the bank of sitting on its hands or ignoring Canadians’ pain, there were no f-bombs. Many were downright polite: “So, I am not an economist with multiple degrees but l'd like to ask you Mr. Macklem … could you not raise the Bank of Canada's prime interest rate tomorrow [July 12]?” “Give Canadians a bit of a reprieve with the climbing interest rates to choke out inflation, please. Yes, I am asking you for a ‘summer break’ — let Canadians enjoy the summer, our vistas — other wonderful Canadian locales to explore.” — Deepest cut: One person, who said they were “literally one more hike away from losing my house,” signed their email with: “I'd like to end this with ‘regards,’ but I just can't.” — Direct appeals: Another wrote to the institution seeking a direct line to Macklem: “Good day, I would like to criticize the governor's reckless policies … Could you please forward the governor's email address to me so that I can send this personally. Thank you!” Another writer, who CC’d the offices of PIERRE POILIEVRE and the PM, sought a 10-minute one-on-one in the hopes of convincing Macklem to set the overnight rate to zero, noting there’s a “lot to consider, which is why I am asking for a quick meeting to discuss the best steps and the biggest priorities.” “Please let me know when you’re available and I’ll bring the coffee.” Another person claimed it “used to be easier to reach people at this level when MARK CARNEY was in.” — Fan mail: It wasn’t all negative. True believers in Macklem’s monetary-policy playbook wrote to thank him for working to beat back inflation and to urge him to resist pressure to drop rates early. A Canadian nearing 80 wrote, “I have to say I AGREE with you (must be the only one).” Another praised the governor for “leading the country in the right economic direction.” — P.S. The next rate decision is June 5. The Globe’s MARK RENDELL writes it’s not a sure thing rates will drop, with central bank officials split over the question of when, but expect cuts to be gradual once they do start. | | | Where the leaders are | | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be in Bromont, Quebec, where he will make an announcement at 10:20 a.m. on the semiconductor supply chain and regional economic development. A media availability will follow.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not released his public itinerary. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Toronto for a 10:45 a.m. presser with MP LEAH GAZAN to talk up how the NDP “secured free contraceptives” for Canadians through the pharmacare deal. Later he speaks at the Toronto Day of Mourning for workers hurt or killed on the job, then attends the OPSEU convention. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will be in Ottawa to attend the fourth session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee, INC-4. | | | DULY NOTED | | |
Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is in Regina for the post-budget roadshow, promoting economic investment tax credits at an 11 a.m. (local time) media avail.
| | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | |  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and Canadian ex-diplomat Michael Kovrig on the sidelines of the 78th United Nations General Assembly last year. | AP | MICHAEL KOVRIG ON HOSTAGE DIPLOMACY — Is it safe to travel to China? That’s a question POLITICO’s PHELIM KINE explores in the latest edition of China Watcher newsletter. — The D.C. context: In February, the Biden administration approved more direct flights to the U.S. by Chinese airlines. In response, House Foreign Affairs Committee chair MICHAEL MCCAUL accused the administration of raising the risk of U.S. citizens becoming victims of arbitrary detention or hostage taking by Beijing. A short trip to China “could easily turn into a years-long detainment for a crime they never committed,” the Republican lawmaker from Texas warned in an op-ed last week. The argument puts McCaul at odds with U.S. educators and business interests — backed by the Chinese Embassy in Washington — who want the Biden administration to lift obstacles to U.S. citizens going to China for work or study. — A Canadian’s view: Kine spoke to former diplomat MICHAEL KOVRIG — who along with fellow Canadian MICHAEL SPAVOR spent nearly three years behind bars in China as a pawn in a Chinese hostage diplomacy strategy — about the risks of traveling to a country which he says keeps “lists of foreigners that they’re watching that they can then grab and use as collateral when they need to.” Responses have been edited for length and clarity. How can foreign governments prevent arbitrary detention or hostage taking of their citizens by Beijing? There’s deterrence by denial and deterrence through punishment or threat of punishment. Denial is by just discouraging your citizens from going to countries where they’re at risk of arbitrary detention. But once people have been detained what’s necessary is to try to change the cost-benefit calculus of countries that are doing that. Did your three-year ordeal — which ended in 2021 by Canada releasing Huawei CEO Meng Wanzhou from house arrest in Vancouver in exchange for you and Spavor — provide Beijing a model for future hostage diplomacy? The costs for China were quite high, so I don’t think that China would necessarily conclude that this was a successful way of handling things. By taking hostages, they painted the Trudeau government into a corner and actually complicated things for themselves. And the costs are still going on in terms of how China is perceived. It contributed in many ways to changing perceptions of the Chinese party state in ways that I don’t think are in any way helpful for China. There’s pressure on the U.S. State Department to downgrade its Level 3 “Reconsider Travel” advisory for China that warns of “arbitrary enforcement of local laws, including in relation to exit bans, and the risk of wrongful detentions.” Is that a good idea? I see no reason to justify removing that warning. The risk of arbitrary detention in China is real. What insights into Chinese Communist Party mindset did you gain during those three years? I had a much clearer understanding of the extent to which the party state has a fundamentally hostile view of the West, particularly the United States. The degree to which it is deeply paranoid and suspicious about everything the United States does, particularly with allies, and the length to which it is willing to go to defeat the United States, to push back the United States, to try to surpass the United States in particular. They are obsessed with the United States. They are paranoid about the United States. And if it were possible to have multiple interpretations of why the U.S. did something in particular, you can pretty much assume that they will take the most negative possible interpretation. They view the U.S. government as unrelentingly hostile towards the party state. The Leninist obsession with control, the need to control everything is hardwired into the system. XI JINPING is very powerful and very important. But we need to think of him as also being strapped into a giant, bureaucratic authoritarian machine. And he's trying to get that machine to do what he wants. But he himself is a prisoner of that system as well. None of those people can get out of that system. Xi Jinping can't safely retire. He can't just go and say, “You know what? I'm done. I'm going to go live in Tahiti.” None of them can get out of that machine. And so they are all just trying to survive inside that machine.
| | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
UP:JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s podcast appearances.
DOWN: The Liberals’ 2024 budget in the polls. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— On CBC's At Issue, the panel discussed PIERRE POILIEVRE's pit stop at an anti-carbon tax convoy camp. From CHANTAL HÉBERT, "These kinds of events that he's encouraging now will come back to haunt a Conservative government if and when there is one led by Mr. Poilievre. Because those tactics will be used on him."
— Top of POLITICO this hour: What we learned from Trump’s surprisingly good day at the Supreme Court. — NDP MP HEATHER MCPHERSON tells Hill Times’ CHELSEA NASH the next leader should be a woman (and, by the way, she’s working on her French). — APTN News reports on a photo of WAB KINEW changing a tire that turned into a meme of the Manitoba premier “picking berries, making an Indian taco, gutting a moose, milking a cow and even checking a dog for wood ticks.” — From the Globe’s CAMPBELL CLARK: When will MARK CARNEY run? — POLITICO’s AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES writes on Spain’s bombshell announcement: 6 things to know about PEDRO SÁNCHEZ’s threat to resign. — “Our children blame us for the damaged world that we will leave them, and they reproach us for the privileges that they will inherit,” MICHAEL IGNATIEFF writes in an essay originally published in Liberties Journal. — Former Harper PMO chief of staff IAN BRODIE substacks about foreign interference: Still low risk. Still high payoff. — STEVE CHASE and BOB FIFE in the Globe are driving news on Ottawa exempting aerospace firms from Russian titanium sanctions over fear of job losses. | | | PROZONE | |
Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from ZI-ANN LUM and KYLE DUGGAN: Ontario lands Honda's C$15B EV project.
From EMILY CADEI, MARCIA BROWN and DAVID LIM: Biden administration scrambles to reassure Americans as bird flu spreads. In other news for Pro readers: — How TikTok’s vaunted lobbying operation went wrong. — EU countries dilute fuel tax hike as green anger mounts. — Biden slams Trump dollar devaluation plans in trade policy offensive. — Alaska lawmakers join legal fight over gold mine. — Biden’s newest climate rule takes an aggressive swing at power plants. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to Sen. PETER BOEHM (70!), Earnscliffe’s ANDRE ALBINATI, former Sen. SHARON CARSTAIRS, former MPs RUTH ELLEN BROSSEAU (40!) and LORNE NYSTROM, journo GILL DEACON, LOIS BOONE, former deputy premier of British Columbia.
On Saturday: Space Canada CEO BRIAN GALLANT, Sen. RENÉ CORMIER, TSN’s CLAIRE HANNA, retired senator JANIS JOHNSON, journo MOHAMED FAHMY (50!) and former MP JOE PESCHISOLIDO. On Sunday: Conservative MP MARTIN SHIELDS, Sen. LARRY SMITH and ALLIE LEE of Enterprise Canada. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: PMJT getting New Yorker-style treatment on the latest cover of The Walrus that’s hitting stands next month, drawn by artist BARRY BLITT for JUSTIN LING’s recent feature.
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The Walrus | MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH paying tribute to his father-in-law TERRY SYMINGTON, who died this week. “He was a wisecracker and a storyteller, he breathed life into every room, and he will be sorely missed.” Oshawa Conservative MP COLIN CARRIE announcing he will not run in the next election. Former Manitoba Premier HEATHER STEFANSON is resigning her legislature seat and leaving politics. MARCO VIGLIOTTI noting a sudden change to the Liberal nomination date for Toronto-St. Paul’s. Movers and shakers: SHANJEELIN DWIVEDI has joined the packed Conservative nomination race in Abbotsford-South Langley, B.C., which already includes B.C. United MLA MIKE DE JONG, Tory staffer MIKE MURRAY and party activist STEVE SCHAFER. Media mentions: The nominees for the 2024 DIGITAL PUBLISHING AWARDS have been revealed. Your Ottawa Playbook is up for best editorial newsletter. The NATIONAL NEWSPAPER AWARDS are tonight. Good luck to the 2023 finalists. Farewells: Veteran CBC hockey broadcaster BOB COLE has died at the age of 90. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . | | ON THE HILL | |
→ Find House committees here.
→ Keep track of Senate committees here. Parliament returns April 29. | | TRIVIA | |
Thursday’s answer: After stoning and egging Governor General LORD ELGIN’s carriage, protesters invaded Parliament in Montreal and set the building on fire.
Props to GABE COUNSIL, LAURA JARVIS, HELEN DARBY, MARCEL MARCOTTE, KEVIN BOSCH, ERIC NEUDORF, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JONAH ROSEN, MATT DELISLE, JOHN ECKER and BOB GORDON. Friday’s question: “If one could imagine a snow storm of particles of fire instead of snow, it would give some idea of the intensity.” To what event on this day in history was E.B. EDDY referring? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: KYLE DUGGAN Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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