Why Democrats can’t save Mike Johnson

Presented by The Alzheimer’s Association: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead

Apr 10, 2024 View in browser   By Anthony Adragna Presented by  With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team Any Democratic rescue mission would leave Speaker Mike Johnson in the precarious position of saving his job while sapping his clout inside in the House GOP. | Francis Chung/POLITICO A SPEAKER’S IMPOSSIBLE POSITION A bloc of House Democrats are publicly vowing they’d step in to save Speaker Mike Johnson from a looming threat by fellow Republicans to toss him out. But, from Johnson’s perspective, that might not be any help at all. That’s because any Democratic rescue mission would leave the speaker in the precarious position of saving his job while sapping his clout inside in the House GOP — a point that Johnson’s main tormentor acknowledged Wednesday. “It would prove me absolutely right that he's the Democrats’ speaker of the House, not the Republicans’ elected speaker,” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said in response to POLITICO. Complex math: To be sure, Greene is alone for now in openly agitating for a vote on Johnson’s removal — most GOP lawmakers are anxious to avoid a redo of last fall’s weeks-long drama — but in the narrowly-divided chamber just a handful of supporters matter, and a number of hard-line conservatives have hinted they could join her push if Johnson miscalculates. To name a couple: Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) told reporters Wednesday he was not “closing the door” to backing Greene, while Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) said earlier this week that his posture would “depend on the context.” That has prompted some Democrats to volunteer to step in to offset any GOP defections — so long as Johnson brings a long-awaited Ukraine aid bill to the House floor. “If he's a man of his word and brings these bills to the floor and gives an up-or-down vote, we wouldn't have a reason to join” an ouster effort, Rep. Annie Kuster (D-N.H.) said. “Frankly, if [Greene] tries, we'll end up with Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.” Jefffries and other Democratic leaders haven’t yet spoken definitively on their posture, signaling they will hold a caucus-wide discussion on the path forward. “Members want to see the speaker do the right thing,” Caucus Chair Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said Wednesday. ‘Chaos in the House’: Meanwhile, Johnson and his allies issued warnings about what another successful motion to vacate would mean — even as GOP leaders’ plans to tee up a vote on expiring surveillance authorities flopped on the floor, with 19 Republicans breaking ranks on a rule vote. “It would be chaos in the House,” the speaker said Wednesday before meeting with Greene for more than an hour. Greene was unyielding in her threats after the meeting but still wouldn’t offer a timeline for triggering her motion and forcing a vote: “Because of my respect for my conference, I won't be drawing red lines or saying triggers or putting on a date,” she said, adding that it would depend on how Johnson navigates the spy powers and Ukraine funding battles. In Johnson’s corner: Notably, three of the eight Republicans who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy last year — Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), Bob Good (R-Va.) and Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) — have said they don’t plan to move against Johnson. Members are also watching closely whether Donald Trump eventually weighs in — any nudge from the former president could tip the outcome one way or the other. Johnson's allies largely declined to weigh in on the implications if the speaker survives Greene’s motion thanks to Democrats. But conservatives have long speculated that it would be an untenable position and result in an all-out revolt from his right. “I don't think anybody wants to repeat what the country had to go through last year,” newly-elected Appropriations Chair Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said. “There's no obvious alternative, and there's no exit strategy. It's a bad idea.” — Anthony Adragna, with assists from Jordain Carney, Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu   A message from The Alzheimer’s Association: The dawning of a new era for Alzheimer’s treatment, care and support. Significant progress in Alzheimer’s and dementia research and the recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of Alzheimer’s treatments to slow progression at an early stage has given patients and caregivers hope. But as we enter this new era, we must remove barriers standing between those with dementia and the care they need.   GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, April 10, where it’s everything spy powers all the time in Washington — even if we wish they’d hold their meetings outside. HUDSON’S ABORTION ADVICE Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said he’s urging his recruits to make their positions on abortion rights crystal clear following the Arizona Supreme Court’s backing of an 1864 law enacting a near-total ban on the procedure. “Democrats, as they've done for years, are going to try to lie about our position,” he said in an interview. “This is clearly a ruling that has been condemned by Republicans and Democrats. This is not an election year issue for congressional races.” Hudson argued state courts were not the proper venue to decide abortion access. “Our position, Trump's position, the position of a lot of Republicans is that the states ought to decide,” the North Carolina Republican said. “That means the voters of the state. That means state legislatures. It doesn't mean courts.” — Anthony Adragna   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     NOMINEE POLITICS LINGER OVER SENATE There’s been a rare bit of shuffling lately in the Biden Cabinet, and there may be more on the horizon. But in an election year where vulnerable senators are being squeezed on every vote — especially on nominations — any Cabinet nominee will face an uphill battle for confirmation. The lineup so far… — Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge left her post last month to return home to Ohio, and the White House has not yet nominated a replacement. While Fudge was confirmed on a bipartisan basis, senators recognize any nominee put up before the November election will face heightened political scrutiny. “I do think it's important to fill it. Obviously we're a little later in the election year, and so we would also need the cooperation of our Republican colleagues to clear a nomination if it came down,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). — Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su has continued to stall in her bid for confirmation as her department’s permanent leader amid reservations from moderate Senate Democrats. Su has twice cleared the HELP Committee but has not seen a floor vote. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said he still hopes Su will get a confirmation vote this year. But asked if it’s more difficult to get that vote amid an election cycle, Sanders replied, “Talk to the Republicans.” And while the rest of the Cabinet appears to be staying put, the year is young: — Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is considering a run for California governor, per our Golden State colleagues, but would stick around until after the November elections. Still, the latest moves underscore that the Cabinet has had remarkably little turnover under Biden, particularly compared to the prior administration, as Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) observed in an interview. As changes emerge, Welch said, any specific issues with nominees are “all fair and square,” but he hopes “Republicans don’t just disrupt for [their] own sake.” — Ursula Perano CORRECTION Tuesday’s edition included incorrect information about Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) reelection timing and did not provide the full context of his comments about abortion policy. HUDDLE HOTDISH It’s not a speakeasy: The Hideaway, the new takeout option from the House Members’ Dining Room, launched Wednesday in H-120 to bleak reviews. Customers download the Everyday app to order from this menu, which we’ll note has higher prices than many other House-side eateries. But the caffeine-dependent can rejoice: Common Grounds coffee and espresso is available. Jon Tester went up with an immigration-themed ad distancing himself from the Biden administration — just ahead of the Senate’s handling of the Alejandro Mayorkas impeachment. Looks like Joni Ernst is a fan of Celsius (cc: Ursula) and invoked “Ghostbusters” on the Senate floor. The air filters outside the House Rules Committee will finally be getting a break from Tom Cole’s cigar smoke. Gen Z is innovating … Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) hosted a concert-presser mashup. Maggie Hassan voted on the Senate floor with a baby.   A message from The Alzheimer’s Association:   QUICK LINKS  'On life support': Senate Republicans are prepared to sink the child tax credit bill, from Sahil Kapur in NBC News Senate Leaders Look to Curb ‘Judge Shopping’ but in Different Ways, Mattathias Schwartz in The New York Times Congress Likely to Kick the Can on Covid-Era Telehealth Policies, from Sarah Jane Tribble in KFF Health News Sean Penn, Barbra Streisand join star-studded call for Congress to act on Ukraine, from Tara Suter in The Hill TRANSITIONS  Hector Colón is now a professional staff member for the House Rules Dems. He previously was deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Rep. Marilyn Strickland (D-Wash.).   A message from The Alzheimer’s Association: How can we relieve the burden of Alzheimer's and dementia on individuals, caregivers, and the nation's health care system? As progress continues in Alzheimer’s and dementia care and treatment, we must increase our focus on detection and diagnosis, expanding and improving access for people in rural and medically underserved areas, increasing research funding, and investing in our dementia infrastructure. This will accelerate innovation, leading to new, more accessible treatments and means of prevention for the nearly 7 million Americans living with the disease. It’s time to renew our nation’s commitment to fighting Alzheimer’s and all other dementia. Learn more.   TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are in session. THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL 8 a.m. Senate Armed Services Committee holds hearing on the posture of U.S. European Command and U.S. Transportation Command. (216 Hart) 10:35 a.m. Congress convenes for a joint meeting to receive Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. (House floor) 2 p.m. House Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science Subcommittee holds hearing on the FBI’s fiscal 2025 budget request with Director Christopher Wray. (2362-A Rayburn) 3 p.m. House Armed Services Committee quality-of-life panel unveils final report. (House Triangle)   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      TRIVIA TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Aaron Bill was the first to correctly guess that King Kamehameha is the largest statue in the National Statuary Hall Collection. TODAY’S QUESTION from Aaron: Benjamin Harrison, the 23rd president, was the first commander-in-chief to use what in the White House? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.   Follow us

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