Big ideas for the Cabinet retreat

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.

Aug 02, 2024 View in browser   By Kyle Duggan with Philippe J. Fournier Ottawa Playbook will not publish on Monday. We’ll be back in your inbox first thing Tuesday morning.  Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → 338 looks at Canadian pollsters’ work on the U.S. election. → Housing whisperer MIKE MOFFATT talks about the good, the bad and the ugly of the file. → Who’s up, Who’s down. FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA TALKING TO AMERICANS — Happy Friday! My name is PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER, astrophysicist by day, editor-in-chief of 338Canada and a newsletter by night, and POLITICO Ottawa contributor around the clock. The arrival of August usually coincides with an increase in the pace of polling in Canada. Instead, a handful of Canadian firms — some with U.S. offices — have been actively polling Americans about the U.S. presidential election. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters on July 25. | Pool photo by Brendan Smialowski A quick look this morning at what they've noticed: — Momentum shift: After U.S. President JOE BIDEN’s disastrous debate on June 27, a Léger poll for the New York Post gave Republican nominee DONALD TRUMP a 7-point lead among likely voters over the embattled president (45 percent to 38 percent). — One month later: After the arrival of KAMALA HARRIS to the campaign, Léger measured a 3-point lead for VP among likely voters in the head to head. When ROBERT F. KENNEDY, CORNEL WEST and JILL STEIN were added to options for poll respondents, Harris’ lead grew to seven points (48 percent to 41 percent). — Three is a trend: The Angus Reid Institute released its latest American survey this week that found a two-point national lead for Harris among registered voters (44 percent to 42 percent). The latest U.S. poll from Mainstreet Research showed similar numbers with Harris at 48 percent among likely voters, against 46 percent for Trump. — In case you missed it: From POLITICO’s STEVEN SHEPARD: “The election has been totally upended. Here’s what the polls show.” — Mad scientists: During the 2020 U.S. election campaign, the editors of Scientific American endorsed a candidate: JOE BIDEN. “We’ve never backed a presidential candidate in our 175-year history — until now,” they said. “This year we are compelled to do so,” the editors explained. “We do not do this lightly.” The editors wrote that in his first term as president, Donald Trump had “badly damaged the U.S. and its people — because he rejects evidence and science.” — Madder scientists: In July, four editors of Scientific American signed a detailed piece titled “What to Know about Project 2025’s Dangers to Science,” which sounded alarms on the many ways Project 2025 (a blueprint of policy proposals intended to guide the next conservative administration) would harm scientific progress in education, agriculture, health care (including abortion), technology and clean energy. Feels like a second presidential endorsement may be in the works. — Questions for me: Send them here — I’ll dive into the Playbook mailbag next week. DRIVING THE DAY ONE YEAR LATER — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is returning from vacation and has just three weeks to go until the big huddle at the upcoming Cabinet retreat, with potentially a year of government left on the clock before the next election. Around this time last year, MIKE MOFFATT of the Smart Prosperity Institute and TIM RICHTER of the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness attended a Cabinet retreat to brief ministers on just how bad Canada’s housing crisis had become and how Ottawa should set about digging the country out of the hole. Moffatt is not set to appear at this year's edition, which starts Aug. 25 in Halifax, but Playbook wanted to check in with one of the government’s housing whisperers for an idea of where things should be headed. — The more things change: “The housing situation continues to deteriorate,” Moffatt tells Playbook, “not because of anything necessarily the government did, but just higher interest rates that have really broken this market.” Rents across the country jumped almost 9 percent year on year and governments are trying to address the crisis, yet affordability continues to worsen, he said. A shortage of construction labor isn’t a major problem now like it was this time last year with layoffs due to declines in housing starts, but that will boomerang back when the sector tries to ramp up building again. There are, meanwhile, shortages in some places at the municipal level in such key areas as issuing building permits and approvals. — Three big things: The government nixing the GST on purpose-built rentals, which it announced last year, has been “particularly helpful,” along with pouring more funding into infrastructure and mortgage markets. “There is more work to be done, but certainly over the last 12 months, they really have moved in the right direction.” — Three more big ideas: On top of putting the pedal to the metal on implementing what they’ve already set in motion since last year, the government could … →  Kill “unfortunate loopholes.” Moffatt pointed to a “fantastic” funding requirement that prevents municipalities from raising development charges — but it only applies to cities of 300,000 people or more. “So, we're seeing cities like Burnaby, B.C., which are under that threshold, substantially increase development charges.” → Do more on improving the home-ownership situation. By removing the GST on home ownership and housing construction under a certain threshold, for example. → Stem population growth, which is driving a lot of housing demand. Moffatt said rent growth is starting to slow in some areas, particularly college and university cities, and it “does seem like some of the changes that the federal government has made to international students are starting to bear fruit, but they need to go a lot further on this and they need to have a coordinated plan.” Immigration Minister MARC MILLER said recently he's talking with provinces about adjusting the number of long-term visas that get issued to students, and has already brought in a new cap on international student visas. But a statement in which the Bank of Canada recently called the federal government's targets on temporary residents into question “should be a wakeup call,” Moffatt said. “It's very, very unusual for the Bank of Canada to start questioning the credibility of federal policy, so … the government really needs to have a credible plan on this.” — More pain on the horizon: Moffatt says he doesn’t have an apocalyptic scenario for homeowners from the much-dreaded “mortgage wall” or “cliff” that’s grabbed headlines — that is, the massive amount of Canadians renewing their mortgages while rates are high — but it won’t be pretty as they get locked in for a rough ride. “I'm not expecting it to lead to a wave of mortgage defaults or anything like that, but it is going to be painful for a lot of families as those turn over. What helps the most with those is Bank of Canada rate cuts. Luckily, we've seen two rate cuts in the last two decisions and I think we're seeing we're likely to see one or two more by the end of the year, which will certainly help.” — Days until the next rate date: 33. — The political outlook: The housing file will be “incredibly challenging” for the governing Liberals as they inch toward the next election. “Things need to get better quickly because I do feel that younger Canadians, say under the age of 35 or so, have really given up hope.”   Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat.      Where the leaders are — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events on his schedule. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND has not released her public itinerary. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE holds an “Ax the Tax” rally in Elliot Lake, Ont. — Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET is in Quebec and will visit the Saint-Hyacinthe agricultural fair at 4:30 p.m. with MP SIMON-PIERRE SAVARD-TREMBLAY and later will throw out the first pitch at the local baseball game at 7:55 p.m. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH has not released a public itinerary. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY has no public events on her schedule. DULY NOTED 9 a.m. (10 a.m. AT): Housing Minister SEAN FRASER with MPs MIKE KELLOWAY and LENA METLEGE DIAB will make an announcement on commercial space launch capability in Canada. A media availability will follow.   WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN UP: Ad-hungry Conservatives, as their political war chest continues to overflow under PIERRE POILIEVRE’s fundraising machinery. DOWN: Parliamentary democracy, after House committee witnesses testifying about violence against women left in tears when the session descended into partisan bickering. MEDIA ROOM Evan Gershkovich, Paul Whelan and Alsu Kurmasheva arrived at Andrews Air Force Base shortly before midnight to a joyful welcome from their families. Here, U.S. President Joe Biden grins as Gershkovich hugs his mother, Ella Milman. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo — Four people were released to the U.S. and 12 to Germany from Russia Thursday in one of the biggest and most complex prisoner swaps in U.S. history, POLITICO’s ERIN BANCO and JONATHAN LEMIRE report. The Wall Street Journal reports on how the deal came together “after months of negotiations at the highest levels of governments in the U.S., Russia and Germany.” — The Logic’s MURAD HEMMADI reports that Google will start adding a 2.5 percent "Canada DST fee" to Canadian ad sales from October, passing on the bulk of the Liberal government's recently enacted digital services tax. — The Globe's ANDREA WOO and XIAO XU report that people along B.C.’s Fraser and Chilcotin rivers are being warned to leave the area immediately over fears a massive landslide that has dammed the Chilcotin River could give way. — MICHAEL DEN TANDT writes for The Line: “Trudeau can't pull a Biden. The cycle won't allow it.” — KATE MCKENNA of CBC News marks one year of Meta turning off the news taps. — ANAIDA POILIEVRE penned an op-ed: “How Venezuela’s opposition outfoxed socialist dictator NICOLÁS MADURO.” — “As elected officials we are sometimes stuck in a bit of an Ottawa bubble, so it’s great to get out here,” Immigration Minister MARC MILLER said this week during an interview with Cabin Radio in Yellowknife. PROZONE Catch the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers: Why RAY DALIO believes the U.S. is on the brink. In other news for Pro readers:  — Carbon removal experts: Technology could blunt climate mitigation. — Trump targets anemic Biden effort to build EV chargers. — Josh Shapiro offers Harris a path through fracking minefield. — Senate appropriators back Financial Services funding bill in full committee. — Senate releases Energy-Water, other spending bills. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND, U.N. Ambassador BOB RAE, Ontario Transport Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA. Celebrating Saturday: ALEXANDRA VALCOUR of Proof Strategies, former NDP MP DAN HARRIS and ex-Quebec MNA SYLVAIN ROY (60!). On Sunday: Former Newfoundland and Labrador Premier DANNY WILLIAMS. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: The Translation Bureau, celebrating 90 years. … CBC Newsworld, celebrating 35: “It’s a lifetime ago, but it’s all flown by,” tweeted KATHLEEN PETTY, who was part of the original crew. International Trade Minister MARY NG, logging a two-day trip to Buffalo, New York, and St. Catharines and Hamilton in Ontario — the latest in the “Team Canada” charm offensive.  Noted: Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH talking foreign affairs on his “Uncommons” podcast — a rare thing for a backbench MP to do — and saying some spicy things about Canada’s defense spending plans and even DONALD TRUMP. “The government should have budgeted the 2% in greater detail rather than announce an uncosted 2032 timeline as a result of pressure at the [NATO] summit,” he said, but “if you [PIERRE POILIEVRE] are going to politicize this in a ridiculous way, you should probably have your own plan.” Movers and shakers: Lt.-Gen. STEPHEN KELSEY is the new vice chief of the defense staff, replacing Lt.-Gen. FRANCES ALLEN who is retiring. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . TRIVIA Thursday’s answer: On Aug. 1, 1957, Canadian Defense Minister GEORGE PEARKES and U.S. Secretary of Defense CHARLES E. WILSON issued a joint statement heralding the North American Air Defense Command. Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, TRACY NEWKIRK BOCK, GEOFFREY CHAMBERS, ROHIN MINOCHA-MCKENNEY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SCOTT LOHNES and MARCEL MARCOTTE.  Friday’s question: Who were the two rising-star Quebecers JEAN CHRÉTIEN brought into Cabinet before they were even elected? Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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