| | | | |  | | By Nick Reisman, Emily Ngo and Jeff Coltin | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Rich Mendez
| 
The first statewide poll in New York since Biden dropped out has Vice President Kamala Harris up 14 points against former President Donald Trump. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | NEW YORK MINUTE: Rep. Jamaal Bowman became the first Squad member to lose a Democratic primary this year. Rep. Cori Bush could be the second. Bush, a Missouri Democrat, faces St. Louis prosecutor Wesley Bell in a primary today — less than two months after Bowman lost to Democratic rival George Latimer in a Bronx-Westchester district. Like Latimer, Bell has benefitted from spending by AIPAC, a leading pro-Israel organization that supports primary challenges to left-leaning House members. POLL VAULTING: Vice President Kamala Harris has a 14-point lead over former President Donald Trump in New York — a far larger gap than President Joe Biden’s shrinking advantage, a Siena College poll out today found. The highly anticipated Siena poll — the first statewide survey of voters since Biden ended his presidential campaign on July 21 and endorsed Harris — suggests a rejuvenated race in New York. Harris’ edge will give down-ballot Democrats a sigh of relief after months of Biden’s eroding numbers in New York. Democrats had nervously observed Biden’s lackluster polling in this deep blue state for months, fretting over the potential impact on the party’s House candidates with a half-dozen swing seats in play. Harris led Trump 53 percent to 39 percent among registered voters in the state in a head-to-head race, according to the poll. That’s an improvement of six points overall from Biden’s matchup with Trump in June. And Harris is doing better than her boss in New York virtually across the board. Since Biden exited the race, Harris’ numbers across key demographics have improved: 81 percent of Black voters in this poll, compared to 59 percent for Biden in June; and 40 percent of independent voters, more than Biden’s 28 percent. (Trump drew 47 percent of independent voters). The survey found a virtually even race between Trump and Harris in upstate counties and in the politically crucial New York City suburbs. Before Biden dropped his bid for a second term, signs of trouble for Democratic House candidates ensued. Democrats are trying to flip five Republican-held seats in the Hudson Valley, the Syracuse area and on Long Island. Private polling by Democratic-leaning labor unions and the campaigns themselves showed a surprisingly competitive presidential race between Biden and Trump within battleground House seats. (A Republican presidential candidate has not won New York since 1984.) One Democrat working on a competitive House race and granted anonymity to speak bluntly said of Biden’s decision to exit the race: “Democrats rightly listened to the concerns of the American people, while Republicans doubled down on the cult of Trump.” Democrat Mondaire Jones, who is trying to reclaim his old Hudson Valley House seat in a challenge to Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, said Harris’ entry into the race has created a new dynamic. “I’ve already noticed the increase, the uptick in volunteerism and excitement,” he said Monday. “There’s a whole bunch of organic events being planned and I’m going to be participating in as many as I can.” Lawler’s campaign in response signaled issues will still matter in the race for the swing seat against Jones. “Unfortunately, for him, the switch at the top of the ticket won’t save him,” Lawler campaign manager Chris Russell said. “Hudson Valley voters don’t want a radical ‘defund the police,’ open borders, tax-raising socialist like Mondaire as their congressman.” Despite the good news, warning signs remain for Democrats — and a clear silver lining for Republicans. Voters in New York are sour over the direction of the country, with 61 percent telling pollsters it is headed the wrong way. They also remain frustrated on issues Republicans have sought to wield against Democrats, including Harris, this fall. Majorities of voters believe crime, the migrant crisis and the cost of living have worsened in New York over the last year, the poll found. — Nick Reisman, with reporting from Emily Ngo IT’S TUESDAY: Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.
| | | | A message from Equinor: Can offshore wind power America’s energy transition? Yes, and Equinor is playing a key role. Empire Wind 1 will be the first offshore wind project to connect directly into the NYC grid. It will help New York deliver its climate goals, create more than 1,000 union jobs, boost local economies, and decrease emissions. Equinor is proud to be a global leader in the innovation and advancement of offshore wind. Learn more. | | | YOU’RE INVITED! — Join us for a special POLITICO Live event in NYC on Wednesday. What is the future for Social Security? New York Rep. Pat Ryan (D) will discuss the challenges and solutions lawmakers are considering for the aging benefit on which millions of retiring Americans and New Yorkers rely. We’ll also talk with Jonathan Bowles, executive director of the Center for an Urban Future, Julietta Lopez of the Hispanic Federation and Stephen Miran of the Manhattan Institute, about Social Security’s impact on New York, including the housing crisis. RSVP to attend here. WHERE’S KATHY? In New York City with no public schedule. WHERE’S ERIC? Delivering remarks at a flag-raising ceremony for Bolivia, then holding his weekly press conference. Later he'll speak and present proclamations at the 5th, 122nd, 34th, 47th and 107th precincts as well as Transit District 34. QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Maybe that’s where I got my brain worm.” — Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s response to the New Yorker when asked about dumping a bear carcass in Central Park and posing with it. More below on the incident and its fallout.
|  | ABOVE THE FOLD | | | 
Rep. Pat Ryan highlighted Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as his top pick for Harris' VP. | Evan Vucci/AP | VEEPSTAKES FEVER: Harris is expected as early as this morning to announce her running mate, capping a whirlwind search and vetting process that has kept a reenergized Democratic Party on edge. Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are among the contenders. And while swing-district Democrats in New York had distanced themselves from Biden when he topped the ticket, they’ve warmed to Harris and are making their VP preferences known. In the Hudson Valley, frontline Democrat Rep. Pat Ryan told CNN recently, “I am and have forever been a Pete Buttigieg fan. I think he has just knocked it out of the park in delivering on infrastructure. … And he has just shown an ability to actually unify the country when that is just what people are desperately looking for.” Farther south in the Hudson Valley, Jones, who is facing Lawler, said any of the names floated as potential running mates to Harris would be great, but he let slip a favorite. “She’s got an incredible bench,” the Democratic former House member told Playbook. “I think Shapiro would be a fantastic choice. She needs to win Pennsylvania to return to the White House and he is enormously popular in Pennsylvania.” Meanwhile, in solidly Democratic Westchester County and the Bronx, Bowman, the progressive Dem who lost his primary to George Latimer, posted on social media, “I believe that @Tim_Walz or @AndyBeshearKY would make excellent running mates for VP Harris. Both are dedicated public servants who prioritize jobs, childcare, and public schools, which is exactly what we need.” Harris and her pick for a No. 2 — whoever it may be — are set to appear together at a Philadelphia rally ahead of a five-day barnstorming tour of seven battleground states. — Emily Ngo
| | | | Millions of retiring Americans rely on Social Security benefits, but the program is running at a deficit and Congress has struggled to find a solution for years. Join POLITICO on August 7 to explore what can be done to save the program. What other steps can Congress take to ensure its future? And how could Social Security impact the affordability and housing crisis facing aging New Yorkers? REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | CITY HALL: THE LATEST | | | | 
Supporters and detractors of the hotel licensing bill interpret the crime stats differently. | Dave Kotinsky/Getty Images | HOT(EL) BEDS OF CRIME?: The Police Benevolent Association is endorsing the City Council bill to license hotels, saying it would “enhance safety” — but hotel owners are pushing back, arguing crime fears at their sites are overblown. First in Playbook, a PBA letter to lead sponsor Council Member Julie Menin cites hotels as the location of more than 14,000 criminal complaints over the past five years — and notes that’s “only a fraction” of the 911 calls that don’t result in charges. The politically conservative rank-and-file union is aligning with the more liberal Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and the Hotel Trades Council to back the controversial bill. The influential union wants leverage for its workers in upcoming labor negotiations. Menin’s legislation has 29 cosponsors, ranging from Democratic Socialist Alexa Avilés to Republican Joann Ariola. Well-heeled opponents — who have threatened a $20 million lobbying campaign to defeat the bill — are using the same data to craft a contradictory safety argument. The rate of complaints at hotels is about equal to that of supermarkets and fast food restaurants, and less than clothing stores, according to a memo shared with Playbook compiled by the Hotel Association of New York City, suggesting hotels are being unfairly targeted. Complaints rose along with the general crime rate in 2020 and 2021 but dropped last year to 2015 rates. That corresponded with a swath of hotels being taken off the market and converted to homeless shelters, however. And first in Playbook, the American Hotel and Lodging Association sent a letter to the five city DAs who endorsed the bill making the same points — that there’s no hotel crime wave, and further regulation would kill the industry. — Jeff Coltin FOILED BY FOIL: The Adams administration has a bad habit of endlessly delaying Freedom of Information Law requests — so maybe it’s no surprise that Mayor Eric Adams attacked the New York City Campaign Finance Board for releasing a public document that made him look bad. “I’m really disappointed this report was leaked,” Adams said Monday about the draft audit report of his 2021 campaign that Gothamist reported was not leaked but in fact provided in response to a FOIL request. The semi-independent NYCCFB declined to comment after Adams called it “unfair” that the draft was released before his campaign formally responded. The audit highlighted mountains of reporting errors that could result in nearly $3 million in penalties, but the campaign has the chance to address them. State records law says an agency “may deny access” to records based on a “particularized and specific justification,” but none of the listed exceptions would appear to apply to communications between the CFB and a campaign. — Jeff Coltin More from the city: — The Adams administration has no new classes ready for disabled preschool-age students ahead of the next school year — despite his promise to give them all spots. (POLITICO Pro) — The wife of Tarik Sheppard, a top NYPD official with close ties to the mayor, was quietly hired to a six-figure job leading communications for DYCD. (New York Post) — Outdoor dining will be decimated by new regulations, as just under 2,600 restaurants applied — a nearly 80 percent drop from the program’s peak. (Hell Gate) — The identity of the correction officer who is named in 24 cases of alleged sexual abuse of woman detainees on Rikers Island is uncovered. (Gothamist)
| | | | A message from Equinor:   | | | | | NEW FROM PLANET ALBANY | | | 
A report by Inspector General Lucy Lang found that state prisons have to do a better job of complying with solitary confinement laws. | Julie Jacobson/AP | SOLITARY REPORT: State prison officials need to do a better job tracking their compliance with a law meant to limit the use of solitary confinement, a report by Inspector General Lucy Lang released Monday found. The assessment of the law, known as the HALT Act, gave fodder for left-leaning criminal justice advocates who have decried how the state has implemented the measure. But the Department of Corrections and Community Supervision pledged to improve its record keeping. Lang’s report found prison officials had trouble producing records that identify all people held in confinement since the law was enacted. Data was also lacking when it came to the duration of solitary confinement, out-of-cell recreation time and the verification of misbehavior reports. The HALT Act was a key criminal justice law change won by Democratic lawmakers in 2021 — part of a suite of reforms to the prison system. “Modernizing DOCCS' recordkeeping systems is essential to enhance transparency and improve our ability, as well as that of other oversight bodies, to monitor compliance with HALT,” Lang said. Agency spokesperson Tom Mailey referred Playbook to its response included in the report. “While the department has established a long-term goal of delivering increased technology to staff, which would allow for more electronic record keeping, our housing units are not wired nor do they have connectivity to the DOCCS network, which we are beginning to explore, however, would be a costly and time-consuming endeavor,” the department said. Criminal justice reform advocates have become increasingly impatient over what they believe has been a delay in the rollout of the requirements. “Solitary confinement is torture,” Jerome Wright, the co-director of the #HALTSolitary Campaign, said. “It leads to psychosis, heart disease, self-harm, suicide, and death.” — Nick Reisman More from Albany: — Hochul is convening a global energy summit as the state’s climate goals are being called into question. (Times Union) — Advocates want a longer-term spending plan for the child tax credit. (WCNY) — A battle over batteries is simmering with New York’s grid operator. (POLITICO Pro)
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | | | NEW YORK STATE OF MIND | | — A charitable organization co-founded by Adams’ brother auctioned off a dinner with the mayor during a Hamptons fundraiser over the weekend. (New York Post) — The State Police’s hiring standards are being called into question after a gun incident. (Times Union) — Farmers markets are getting a boost from state grant funding. (Spectrum News) — The Nassau County Legislature passed a mask ban, with exceptions for health. (Newsday)
| | | | A message from Equinor: The energy transition is the defining opportunity of our time. Our world needs reliable and accessible renewable power that reduces emissions and stabilizes the grid. Offshore wind is part of the solution, and Equinor is doing its part. Equinor has deep experience in this industry and is already powering more than a million homes worldwide with offshore wind. Now, we’re building Empire Wind 1 for New York. Homegrown energy and homegrown jobs. The project serves the people who live and work in the community. And we’re just getting started, from clean air and innovations to investments that make Equinor in New York a wind-win. Plug in at www.equinor.com/US. | | | | | SOCIAL DATA | | Edited by Daniel Lippman FIRST IN NY PLAYBOOK — After it was revealed on Sunday that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had dumped a dead bear in Central Park more than a decade ago, MoveOn launched a petition addressed to Mayor Eric Adams, Comptroller Brad Lander, Bragg, the City Council and NYPD demanding a city investigation. It calls for RFK Jr. to “be fined and held responsible for any wasted resources originally spent by the NYPD investigating this incident and by the city for sanitizing the park and disposing of the bear cub.” As of Monday night, the petition has gotten almost 4,000 signatures. Bragg’s office on Monday declined to comment on the incident. He’s not going to face charges from the state. CBS News reported that a “spokesperson for the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation told WCBS’ John Doyle that RFK Jr. will not face charges in the 2014 incident, saying the investigation did not uncover sufficient evidence to determine if violations occurred. ‘The statute of limitation was one year, which has long expired,’ the spokesperson said.”— Daniel Lippman MAKING MOVES: Disha Banik is now head of partnerships, reports and comms for the U.N. World Food Programme for the Republic of the Congo. She previously was a policy adviser for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. … Kaleigh Benedict will be director of government affairs for Rochester Regional Health. She previously was the district director for Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Assemblymember Simcha Eichenstein … Axios’ Neil Irwin … Krysia Lenzo … Julie Bykowicz … CNN’s Mike Melia … Steptoe’s Elizabeth Burks … Deena Abu-Lughod … Michael R. Glennon … Cherie Paquette Gillan … Patrick Reap … (WAS MONDAY): Michael E. Snow ... Lila Cohn ... Dr. Gavriel Rosenfeld ... Howard Leib ... Manfred Ohrenstein ... Robert Rosenkranz Missed Monday’s New York Playbook PM? We forgive you. Read it here. | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
Comments
Post a Comment