How Scotland’s independence warriors crashed and burned

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Aug 05, 2024 View in browser   By Andrew McDonald Scottish National Party Leader John Swinney addresses media at Port of Leith distillery after the U.K. general election results were confirmed on July 5, 2024 in Leith, Scotland. | Michael Boyd/Getty Images BIGGER THEY ARE, HARDER THEY FALL — A decade ago, Scotland narrowly voted to reject independence from the United Kingdom. After a major electoral reversal for Scotland’s nationalists in July’s U.K. general election, their goal has never looked further away. The Scottish National Party was beaten, or to use a piece of Scottish slang, skelped — arguably even more than the Conservatives which were ousted from government. After winning 48 out of 59 seats last time around, the SNP picked up just 9 out of the 57 House of Commons seats allocated to Scotland. That result piled on to the misery for the SNP, which has dominated Scottish politics since the independence referendum in September 2014 but in recent years has been hit by scandal … incompetence … poor leadership … declining funds … a rejuvenated opposition … shifting political circumstances outside their control … and more. Name the crisis, and the SNP have probably endured it in the last few years. “Parties die. If we don’t change, we will die,” was how one SNP official candidly put it in an anonymous post-mortem with POLITICO U.K.  The SNP had already started to slide in the opinion polls by the time its popular leader, Nicola Sturgeon, suddenly quit in February 2023. Still, it marked a dark turning point for Scotland’s nationalists. In the second week of SNP leader Humza Yousaf’s leadership — he replaced Sturgeon after a predictably messy and bad-tempered leadership contest — a blue forensic police tent was erected in the garden of Sturgeon’s modest home. Scottish police had erected the tent as they arrested her husband Peter Murrell, the SNP’s CEO for two decades until 2023, in connection with an investigation into the SNP’s finances. The longtime SNP leader’s home and garden was searched in full view of the watching TV cameras. The police then arrested Sturgeon herself, and one other party figure. A year on, Murrell has been charged with embezzlement, while Sturgeon herself is still under investigation. The stench of scandal may well have been enough to fell the SNP. But it forms only part of the story — and played no part as Yousaf, in a moment of high farce, blew up his own leadership earlier this year. He was replaced in May by an old ally of Sturgeon, John Swinney, who inherited a party which is widely seen to have presided over declining outcomes at the head of Scotland’s government, which holds certain powers devolved from the London U.K. government. As it has in every election since the referendum, the SNP fought July’s elections to the Westminster U.K. parliament on a platform of independence for Scotland, but found that even Scots sympathetic to the idea tended to have other priorities. Amid deep organizational struggles and a lack of funding, it struggled to combat the message from a rejuvenated Scottish Labour Party that touted its closeness to the U.K. Labour Party that won a landslide nationally. “‘The SNP want to send a message to Westminster, we want to send a government’ is one of the best [Scottish Labour] attack lines I’ve ever heard,” a second SNP official speaking anonymously admitted. As the major party tied to independence, the SNP’s tanking is also effectively a rejection of the cause. Senior figures in the SNP now accept that their goal of independence is a “hard sell” to the Scottish electorate. If it wants the cause — which is still supported by close to 50 percent of Scots — to survive in the short term, the next two years are critical. Scottish Labour eyes 2026’s Scottish parliament elections as the moment it can deal a terminal blow to the SNP by wrestling them from the head of the Scottish government. If Labour succeeds and the SNP is totally vanquished, the independence cause will be pushed back to the fringes of debate — as it was for much of the SNP’s history before 2014’s referendum. Scotland’s nationalists have work to do. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at amcdonald@politico.co.uk or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @9andrewmcdonald.   During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more.     What'd I Miss? — Dow sinks more than 1,000 points in global selloff: A stock-market selloff extended around the world, with U.S. indexes sliding and volatility spiking, reports the Wall Street Journal. All three major indexes fell more than 2.5%, with the Nasdaq Composite leading losses and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 1,000 points. Stocks and Treasury yields pared declines after service-sector data came in better than expected. Turbulence started in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 fell more than 12%, its worst one-day drop since the crash after Black Monday in 1987. Losses cascaded across Europe and the U.S., as investors dumped riskier assets. The declines extended what has been a dizzying few days on Wall Street during which the year’s most popular trades have been unwound. A selloff in tech shares continued Monday, with Nvidia, Tesla and Apple each falling at least 4%. — DOJ, states win Google search antitrust case: The Justice Department and several dozen state attorneys general won a sweeping victory against Google Monday as a federal judge ruled that the search giant illegally monopolized the online search and advertising markets over the past decade. In a 286-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta in Washington, D.C., ruled that Google locked up some 90 percent of the internet search market through a partnership with Apple to be the default search provider in its Safari web browser, alongside similar agreements with handset makers and mobile carriers such Samsung and Verizon. Mehta also found that Google disadvantaged Microsoft in the market for ads displayed next to search results, allowing it to illegally dominate that market as well. “Google is a monopolist, and it has acted as one to maintain its monopoly,” Judge Mehta wrote. — Former Trump campaign attorney cooperates with Arizona prosecutors: Jenna Ellis, a former campaign attorney for Donald Trump, has agreed to cooperate with Arizona prosecutors who have charged 18 Trump allies for their role in efforts to subvert the 2020 election. Ellis’ cooperation agreement, announced Monday by Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes, came in exchange for an agreement to drop the charge Ellis faced. She has previously pleaded guilty to similar state charges in Georgia and agreed to give a statement to prosecutors there. — Supreme Court rejects bid to delay Trump sentencing: Supreme Court justices denied an unusual request from Missouri to stall former President Donald Trump’s sentencing for his New York hush money case until after the election. In a set of motions filed by Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey, the state claimed that the hush money prosecution violated the rights of the state’s voters by preventing them from “fully engaging with and hearing from a major-party Presidential candidate in the run up to the November election.” Trump is scheduled to be sentenced Sept. 18. Nightly Road to 2024 AUGUST SURPRISE — Global stock markets are being slammed over worries about the health of the U.S. economy, adding yet more drama to an election cycle that has seen no shortage of chaos this summer. The turnaround in sentiment is stunning. Just a few weeks ago, economists and forecasters were upbeat about fading inflation and resilient growth, a combination that could give Vice President Kamala Harris a potent pitch to voters. But a weakening job market has sparked fears that the honeymoon won’t last, even as the Federal Reserve is close to declaring victory against inflation, with plans to start easing off on the economy soon. MOON SHOT — Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have at least one thing in common: They are both determined to put astronauts back on the moon to build a lunar base, in what is being viewed as the new space race with China. In most areas the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates are poles apart, but when it comes to space the Biden administration’s policy spearheaded by Harris has largely been a continuation of Trump’s legacy. One of Harris' less widely tracked roles is chair of the U.S. National Space Council. Those who have engaged with her view her as an active and detail-oriented advocate of getting back to the moon under the so-called Artemis program. That initiative was launched under Trump and has continued ever since, with a lunar landing likely after 2026, within the next presidential term. THE STOP SHAPIRO CAMPAIGN — The high-stakes battle to become Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate is the latest demonstration of deep ideological fault lines in the Democratic Party, and no contender for the nomination has borne the brunt of it like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, writes the Philadelphia Inquirer. Over the last two weeks, Shapiro — a political moderate with a high approval rating in this critical swing state — has been the target of a decentralized opposition campaign. It’s led largely by progressives who disagree with the governor’s statements about the conflict in the Middle East, his embrace of private-school vouchers, and his office’s handling of a sexual harassment complaint against a former aide. At the same time, Shapiro enjoys strong support from establishment-aligned Democrats across the state who are loudly advocating for his selection, and a handful of top Republicans have said they fear Shapiro most out of the rumored contenders. Some strategists say scrutiny from the left strengthens Shapiro’s appeal with moderates. SUN BELT TEST — For Arizona Democrats, this election is about more than delivering Kamala Harris a key Sun Belt state. It is a test of the party’s down-ballot strength as Democrats mount their most aggressive campaign yet to flip the state legislature. Taking control of Phoenix has emerged as the top target nationwide for Democrats focused on rebuilding state power after more than a decade of GOP dominance in state capitals. After years of failed attempts, Democrats believe they finally have the right ingredients to capture complete statewide control for the first time since the 1960s: record-breaking fundraising, boosted candidate recruitment and the emergence of abortion as an election-defining issue. AROUND THE WORLD Protesters celebrate after news of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's resignation, in Dhaka, Bangladesh on Aug. 5, 2024. | Fatima Tuj Johora/AP BANGLADESH UNREST — Bangladesh’s prime minister resigned and fled the country Monday, after weeks of protests against a quota system for government jobs descended into violence and grew into a broader challenge to her 15-year rule. Thousands of demonstrators stormed her official residence, a day after nearly 100 died in the unrest, reports the Associated Press. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s departure threatens to create even more instability in the nation on India’s border already dealing with a series of crises, from high unemployment and corruption to climate change. STATE ACTORS — The British government is investigating whether the far-right riots sweeping the country are being amped up with “the involvement of state actors.” The U.K. has been hit with multiple outbreaks of anti-immigrant violence in recent days, with far-right protesters clashing with police, targeting mosques and attacking hotels housing asylum seekers. It followed the deadly stabbing of three young girls at a dance class in the seaside town of Southport last week.   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     66 The number of California assemblymembers and senators who received free tickets to concerts, theme parks and sporting events from interest groups in 2023. The gifts, which amounted to more than $30,000 total in worth, came as some lawmakers mounted bids to loosen the power of the ticketing giant Ticketmaster and other elected officials sought to limit third-party resellers like StubHub. RADAR SWEEP SUDDEN RISE — Type 2 diabetes was once known as a disease of adulthood. But it’s spiking in kids and teens, and physicians and researchers have been trying to unravel what’s driving the emergence and proliferation, particularly among marginalized communities including Hispanics/Latinos. The increasing prevalence of obesity among young people is clearly one contributor, but researchers are also scrutinizing the potential influence of other lifestyle and environmental factors — everything from exposure to chronic stress and air pollution to sugar-rich diets. Along with physiological factors, youths from lower socioeconomic levels may be vulnerable due to aspects of daily life beyond their control, such as more limited access to healthy food and opportunities to safely exercise in less-polluted neighborhoods. Charlotte Ruff writes in Knowable magazine about the effort to figure out why some seemingly at-risk adolescents progress to diabetes while others do not. Parting Image On this date in 1965: Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., center, leads a parade of civil rights marchers from a rally in a church to Lafayette Park, opposite to the White House in Washington. | Harvey Georges/AP Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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