Inside Transportation Predictions for 2022

Predictions on EV sales, micro-mobility, eVTOLs, and the airline industry

Inside.com Part of   Network December 31, 2021

Hey readers — Thanks for following the latest trends and developments in the transportation space with us in 2021. As the year comes to an end, we are bringing you some predictions for 2022 in the areas of EVs, micro-mobility, eVTOLs, and the airline industry.  These predictions do not constitute a report or financial advice, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Happy new year! Nicolas

In November, China registered the sale of approximately 413,000 new plug-in electric passenger cars, up 106% YoY. Electric vehicle sales in 2021 through November surpassed 2.7 million vehicles (including plug-in hybrids), which constitute 14.3% of total sales. All-electric battery passenger vehicles comprised an 11.5% sales market share. The trend is likely to continue in the first half of 2022, with China surpassing 500,000 plug-in electric passenger cars sold in a month. The Wuling Hong Guang Mini will continue to dominate the market, as its 2021 sales (through November) consisted of 368,396 units, leading the second most popular EV, Tesla Model Y, by ~239,000 and the closest local competitor, the BYD Qin Plus PHEV, by ~274,100 vehicles. During the second half of the year, EV sales will take a temporary downturn due to Chinese authorities placing a halt on the processing of graphite, used to produce the active anode material in EV batteries, during the Winter Olympics in February. China has 70% of graphite production, and the halt is estimated to impact the production of at least 200,000 vehicles. Auto manufacturers globally will likely see the decrease in graphite supply impact their projections. Tesla has been making other arrangements, including the plan to purchase the majority of the 10kt active anode material produced at Syrah Resources' facility in Louisiana, which sources its graphite from Mozambique. Graphite demand is expected to grow by 27% per year; thus, auto companies will begin the process of localizing and diversifying the sourcing and processing of the material. The halt in the processing of the material in China will likely only have a temporary impact, and global EV production and sales are expected to recover by the end of Q3 and exceed 2021 levels. In the U.S., sales of electric vehicles in the first 10 months of the year rose 94% YoY to 378,466, driven by the Tesla Model Y and Model X comprising a combined 65% of EVs sold. Deliveries of the Tesla Model X Plaid, Hyundai Ioniq 5, and the GMC Hummer EV began earlier this month and will continue in 2022. The Chevy Bolt, which was the third most sold EV for the year, is expected to restart production in February; Lucid expects to begin delivering its Touring, Grand Touring, and Pure models in 2022; and the Ford F150 Lightning, which has 200,000 reservations, is expected in the spring. Demand and wider selection will likely drive the U.S. sale of EVs above 600,000 in 2022.

Moped-scooter company Gogoro, which has a 97% market share in Taiwan, surpassed 200 million battery swaps in August. In October, Gogoro announced an expansion into Mainland China, where it aims to get access to 300 million riders in collaboration with scooter companies DCJ and Yadea. The company has been installing 80 stations in Hangzhou, with plans for expanding to other cities in China. In 2022, Gogoro will likely expand its network throughout Southeast Asia and add battery swapping stations to its existing presence in India and Israel through local partnerships. In October, the moped company revealed its plans to connect its scooter battery swap stations to renewable power grids. The battery stations connect to Taiwan Power Company's grid, distributing power to points of demand. Earlier this month, Gogoro announced the connection of a battery station to smart parking meters in New Taipei City. It aims to power 6,000 parking meters in the next year. In 2022, we will likely see the expansion of the scooter battery swap stations to power projects in Europe, starting in Italy, the main headquarters of Enel, its utility partner for the first microgrid. Enel X operates a total capacity of 7.4 GW and 137 MW of storage globally, including 232,000 EV charging points.

In November, Volocopter ran a crewed eVTOL test flight along a 1.8-mile route from Incheon Airport in South Korea. In 2022, we will see the first at-scale eVTOL tests in highly urbanized areas, beginning with São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. São Paulo has the heaviest presence of helicopter flights in the world, with more than 400 registered units performing over 700 daily flights. Embraer’s Eve Urban Air Mobility began testing a simulation using helicopters with paying customers, who reserved a 20-mile route to better understand how to integrate eVTOLs into air space management in Rio. In September, Brazilian airline GOL and transportation operator Grupo Comporte ordered 250 Vertical Aero X4 eVTOLs from aircraft supplier Avolon, with plans to create a ride-hailing service. Azul Airlines invested $1B in Lilium in a deal that includes 220 eVTOLs.

In 2021, micro-mobility companies Helbiz and Bird became publicly traded companies after completing their mergers with special purpose acquisition companies. In 2022, Lime will likely see its public exchange listing via a SPAC merger. In 2021, Lime had over 250 million rides with a fleet of approximately 200,000. It expanded to 80 new cities, including 50 with e-bikes, meaning it now serves more than 200 markets. In November, Lime raised a $418M convertible note from the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, Fidelity Management, Highbridge Capital, and Uber*, and $105M in convertible debt funding by UBS O'Connor. The listing of Lime is likely to be at a similar valuation to Bird's current market cap at $1.71B, which dialed back from its valuation of $2.3B at the time of the announcement of its merger plans with Switchback II.   Following Lime, Tier Mobility would be next up in the queue for a SPAC merger. The Berlin-based company raised a $194.2M Series D, led by the Softbank Vision Fund, in October. In the past two months, Tier has acquired Vento, Wind Mobility's subsidiary in Italy, and Nextbike, expanding its footprint to 250,000 vehicles in 400 cities. A third scooter-share company that could go public in the U.S. in 2022 is Stockholm-based Voi, which last week raised a $115M Series D led by Raine Group and VNV Global. Voi operates in 70 cities across the U.K. and Europe and plans to source its batteries locally from Europe by 2023. The company claims a 140% YoY revenue growth in 2021. *Note: Inside.com's founder and CEO, Jason Calacanis, is an investor in Uber.

Driven in part by pilot shortages, we will see an initial acceleration in the development of autonomous flight technology in 2022. Companies such as Reliable Robotics, which raised $100M in October and has a testing authorization by the FAA for an autonomous gate-to-gate flight system for Part 23 cargo aircraft, will see greater amounts of funding, including from airlines. Reliable Robotics has been testing its system in real-world scenarios with NASA as part of the Advanced Air Mobility National Campaign. The company is looking to commercialize its flight tech for Part 25 passenger aircraft. Considering the pilot shortage due in part to COVID-related absences, we will likely see a push toward testing certification being granted for other automated cargo and commercial aircraft.

More 2022 predictions: Amazon Air will likely grow its fleet to at least 90 aircraft and expand its network to at least 50 airports in the U.S. Amazon currently has a fleet of 81 aircraft, consisting of medium widebody Boeing 767s and standard converted Boeing 737s, and operates out of 44 airports. In October, the retailer was reportedly seeking refurbished Boeing 777-300ER and Airbus A330-300 planes to send its products across countries. Researchers expect Amazon's daily flights to expand by 12% to 14% for a total of 180 flights per day by January. Nuro will likely expand its autonomous deliveries to Los Angeles. The autonomous vehicle company announced earlier this month the delivery of 7-Eleven items via modified Toyota Prius vehicles, to be followed by its custom R2 vehicle in Mountain View, California. Motional announced its plans for autonomous delivery of Uber Eats orders in Santa Monica. Walmart will likely expand its drone delivery services to multiple semi-rural areas across the Midwest and Southeast. The retailer is currently operating 30-minute deliveries for customers in Farmington and Pea Ridge, Arkansas, via operators DroneUp and Zipline.  At least two airlines will invest in companies producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2022. U.S. airlines revised the goal from 2 billion to 3 billion SAF gallons by 2030, with the aim to reduce emissions by 20%. In September, United Airlines and Honeywell invested in D.C.-based low-carbon jet fuel company Alder Fuels, and in October, Lufthansa partnered with K+N to open the first synthetic SAF facility. Two of the possible airlines to invest in SAF are JetBlue and Delta. JetBlue seeks to convert 10% of its total fuel usage to SAF. Delta Airlines has a 10-year deal worth over $1B with Aemetis; however, it could follow United's lead through a percentage stake to help meet supply.

Quick Hits: SeedInvest is where high-growth startups go to fundraise online. Apply now to get started.* NYPD bought 184 Ford Mustang Mach-Es and approved the option to purchase 250 Tesla Model 3s.  Ford delivered the first Mach-E locally produced in China. NIO installed its 700th battery swapping station. Tesla issued a recall for Model 3 units, versions 2017 to 2021, over the opening and closing of the trunk causing possible damage to the cable harness attaching the rearview camera. Trust is the community-powered corporate card. Learn from each other’s spending patterns, get trusted advice, and increase your buyer. 100% free.*  *This is sponsored content.

Written and curated by Nicolas Saravia, an avid map maker and data nerd. Nicolas has worked in the shared-scooter space, as well as advised e-bike and moped start-ups.  Editor Aaron Crutchfield is based in the high desert of California. Over the last two decades, he has spent time writing and editing at various local newspapers and defense contractors in California. When he's not working, he can often be found looking at the latest memes with his kids or working on his 1962 Ford.

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