U.S. turns the screws on Solomon Islands to counter China

What's next in U.S.-China relations.

Apr 28, 2022 View in browser   By Phelim Kine Kurt Campbell, the U.S. National Security Council Indo-Pacific coordinator, waves as he arrives at the airport in Honiara, Solomon Islands, Friday, April 22, 2022. | Australia Broadcasting Corporation via AP Hi, China Watchers. This week we track U.S. efforts to reverse China's Pacific islands diplomatic advance, quiz the president of Radio Free Asia on its China programming and kick the tires on President Xi Jinping's enigmatic "Global Security Initiative." We'll also examine Chinese censorship of Shanghai's "zero-Covid" lockdown and present a first-person account of the rocky road to making it big in Chinese vegetables. Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com. Let's get to it. — Phelim The Biden administration is scrambling to block China from leveraging its new security pact with Solomon Islands to build a military base in the Pacific island nation. "We have respect for the Solomon Islands' sovereignty, but we also wanted to let them know that if steps were taken [by China] to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power projection capabilities or a military installation, then we would have significant concerns and we would very naturally respond to those concerns," DANIEL KRITENBRINK, assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, told reporters Monday. Kritenbrink declined to provide details on a possible U.S. response. But the Biden administration's options are a mix of carrots and sticks: limited to financial incentives to prod the Solomon Islands back into the U.S. security orbit or periodic U.S. naval deployments in waters around the country to deter Chinese military ambitions with an implicit threat of force. Either option would mark a heightening of efforts by the U.S. and regional allies Australia, New Zealand and Japan — which climaxed with last week's visit to the region by Kritenbrink and KURT CAMPBELL, the National Security Council's Indo-Pacific coordinator — to abort any move by China to use a Solomon Islands foothold to challenge the region's geostrategic status quo. But rolling back Chinese strategic inroads will require the administration to balance rhetoric about the consequences of Pacific island countries' China ties with renewed engagement in a region where the U.S. and its allies are viewed as being in retreat amid a relentless Chinese diplomatic advance. "You can't make up for years of neglect with a few high-level visits and expect everything to work out fine, so [U.S.] levers of affecting the Solomons' decision are pretty limited unless you want to be punitive — which doesn't make a lot of sense — or occasional [U.S. Navy] sailings through the area, " said MICHAEL AUSLIN , research fellow in contemporary Asia at the Hoover Institution. "But if the Solomons are as strategically important as is being made out in Washington, then increase your bid — offer them more than the Chinese are offering them, offer them more development assistance, offer them whatever they want." Solomon Islands' Prime Minister MANASSEH SOGAVARE has insisted that the agreement, which neither he nor the Chinese have publicly disclosed, is strictly designed to "protect all people, their property and critical national infrastructures." That lack of transparency worries the Biden administration. "It's clear that only a handful of people in a very small circle have seen this agreement, and the prime minister himself has been quoted publicly as saying he would only share the details with China's permission, which I think is a source of concern as well," said Kritenbrink. Diplomatic carrots: Meanwhile, U.S. bids to pry the Solomon Islands from its China embrace are already rolling in. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN signaled a ramp-up in U.S. engagement with Solomon Islands by announcing in February the planned reopening of the U.S. embassy in the nation's capital, Honiara, that the Clinton administration closed in 1993. And on Friday, the Biden administration said it will deepen ties with the country through a bilateral "high-level strategic dialogue" that will tackle issues, including "economic and social development, public health, and finance and debt." That surge of promised U.S. largesse may be exactly what Sogavare was after. "There's a domestic aspect to this story … where you have the opposition leader and the incumbent leader play the China card so that they can get attention and have investments come to them from other places," said LINA BENABDALLAH, assistant professor of politics and international affairs at Wake Forest University. Here comes Japan: Solomon Islands is likely to get enticements from SHINGO MIYAKE, Japan's parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, who will visit later this month. Japanese Foreign Minister YOSHIMASA HAYASHI will follow that trip next month with a visit to Solomon Islands' neighbors Palau and Fiji. "Western allies know, or should know, that they can't keep a regional power like China out of the Pacific altogether," said RICHARD MCGREGOR, senior fellow for East Asia at Australia's Lowy Institute. McGregor said allies will try to delay and minimize China's presence as much as they can, as well as focus attention on its tactics of winning over national leaders — as they have in the Solomons — through loans and other means. "The key to doing that is not just outside pressure — that can backfire — but persuading regional states, like Fiji and Papua New Guinea, to push back against China as well," he said. Oz plays bad cop: Australian Prime Minister SCOTT MORRISON opted for the outside pressure tactic, declaring Saturday that any Chinese attempt to establish a military base in Solomon Islands would constitute a geostrategic "red line." That red line may be in sight. Australia's Home Affairs Minister KAREN ANDREWS warned Wednesday that it was "very likely" that China would seek to position troops in the Solomon Islands within a year. That rhetoric spurred a sharp Chinese response. "Island countries in the South Pacific are independent and sovereign states, not a backyard of the U.S. or Australia," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN on Monday. "Their attempt to revive the Monroe Doctrine in the South Pacific region will get no support and lead to nowhere." Wherever it leads, it's clear that China's security pact with Solomon Islands has decisively ended U.S. diplomatic neglect of the Pacific island countries. "I would suspect we will see greater U.S. focus and attention on this part of the world than has been the case in a very long time," said M. TAYLOR FRAVEL , director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The U.S. is not necessarily playing a weak hand in the South Pacific, but I think the big takeaway here is it can't take it for granted and can't assume that it can be absent and its interests as it sees them will be protected." RFA CASH INJECTION FUELS CHINA COVERAGE EXPANSION Radio Free Asia is back. The U.S. government-funded broadcaster that beams local language news to populations living under authoritarian rule across Asia reaped a 30 percent budget increase to $62.6 million this year. RFA's mission is to deliver "uncensored, domestic news and information" to countries, including China, Tibet, North Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Burma. China Watcher talked to RFA President BAY FANG about its China-focused reporting, funding boost and Trump-era turmoil. We've edited the conversation below for length and clarity. What is RFA's value-add in a crowded China-focused media environment? Fang: We reach out directly in Korean to the North Koreans and [to China] in Mandarin, Cantonese, Tibetan and Uyghur. Mainstream media like The New York Times, The [Washington] Post and POLITICO will pick up on the stories that we're doing almost as primary source material, because we have these Uyghur reporters who are making 100 calls a night to local police stations [in Xinjiang], getting tips and doing very basic shoe-leather kind of reporting. That's sort of our super power. Because as hard as it is to get through [to Chinese sources], because we already have this relationship and this reputation, [sources] keep trying to reach us and that's a big part of how we get our news. How will that $14.7 million budget boost improve your programming?  Fang: We're increasing our investigative capabilities in our Uyghur service and all other Chinese services. Simultaneously, we're [countering] China's increased media influence in the Chinese language worldwide. Purdue University did this study a few years ago of foreign students in the U.S. and the Chinese student population was the only population that actually got more anti-U.S. and more pro-China the longer they stayed in the U.S. — because all of their media is from Chinese social media like Weibo and WeChat. So, one of the things we're doing is starting this fact-check unit that is going to map Chinese influence in Chinese [language media] worldwide, including on social media. The third prong [focuses on] Chinese media influence in countries in Southeast Asia in their languages. The idea is to basically [report] in these third languages [to] counter Chinese influence. RFA will [also] be expanding efforts to cover Pacific islands like the Solomons. One of the arguments [for funding RFA] that really resonated on the Hill was the amount of money that China is putting into its media influence around the world, upwards of like$1.3 billion a year. Has RFA recovered from its Trump-era turmoil? FANG: The Trump appointee [to the U.S. Agency for Global Media], MICHAEL PACK, came on in June of 2020. I had just started as [RFA] president in November [2019] while I was on maternity leave, I went back to work in January and then was removed first as president in June and then as executive editor a few weeks later. The idea was just to slash and burn because they didn't even appoint someone to replace me until December of that year. Two days after [Joe Biden's] inauguration, the CEO [of the U.S. Agency for Global Media] who Biden appointed reinstated me. I'm working really hard to just bring the organization to the next level and I think this budget increase really enables us to do a lot of things that we already have a strategy for. TRANSLATING WASHINGTON — YELLEN MOOTS CHINA TARIFF ROLLBACK: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said Friday the Biden administration may lift tariffs on some Chinese imports to ease inflation. " We're reexamining carefully our trade strategy with respect to China," Yellen told Bloomberg TV. "We certainly want to do what we can to address inflation, and there would be some desirable effects." That echoed a call by deputy national security adviser DALEEP SINGH for lifting tariffs on "non-strategic" Chinese imports. The Chinese government hopes sanction cuts prevail. "The early termination of these sanctions will help stop the loss to China-U.S. relations and help enterprises from both countries to seek opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation," LIU PENGYU, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington told reporters Tuesday. — AUSTIN FINALLY REACHES CHINA'S DEFENSE CHIEF: U.S. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN spoke on the phone last week with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister WEI FENGHE. They discussed "defense relations, regional security issues, and Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine," aDoD statement said. A ChineseDefense Ministry readout included demands that the U.S. "stop military provocations at sea and refrain from using the Ukraine issue to smear and sow false evidence against China." Austin had been unsuccessfully pursuing such talks for months as part of his avowed commitment to "stronger crisis communications" with China's military. "More important in the long run is establishing and routinely testing crisis management mechanisms," KARL EIKENBERRY, Army lieutenant general (Ret.) and expert on U.S.-China security relations, told China Watcher. "Trying to do things on the fly after a crisis erupts is fraught with danger." — KERRY: BILATERAL CLIMATE COOPERATION WANING: Biden's climate envoy, JOHN KERRY, warned last week that U.S.-China tensions are harming bilateral cooperation to address the climate crisis. "If climate becomes one of the tools, one of the weapons in the bilateral back and forth, we're cooked, we're in serious trouble," Kerry said at a Washington-based Center for Global Development event. Hot from the China Watchersphere A man enters the Hong Kong Foreign Correspondents' Club in Hong Kong, Friday, Nov. 5, 2021. | Kin Cheung/AP Photo — HONG KONG JOURNALISTS SUSPEND RIGHTS AWARD: Hong Kong's Foreign Correspondents Club decided Saturday to "suspend" its annual Human Rights Press Awards, KEITH RICHBURG , the club's president, said in a statement. "Over the last two years, journalists in Hong Kong have been operating under new 'red lines' on what is and is not permissible, but there remain significant areas of uncertainty and we do not wish unintentionally to violate the law," Richburg said in reference to the dangers of Hong Kong's draconian National Security Law. — CHINA'S FORCED LABOR PLEDGE PROMPTS SKEPTICISM: China's ratification last week of two international conventions against forced labor prompted the Foreign Ministry's Wang to proclaim that Beijing "consistently opposes" forced labor. Observers pushed back. "I think it's a good sign, but the mere ratification will mean very little for the people who are forced to work inside China," said JOHN COTTON RICHMOND , former U.S. ambassador-at-large for anti-trafficking and partner at Dentons US LLP. Others had harsher assessments. "[It's] a cynical ploy to falsely claim it has addressed the problem," SOPHIE RICHARDSON, China director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement. Translating China Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a speech via video link to the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum For Asia in Boao in southern China's Hainan Province, Thursday, April 21, 2022. | Huang Jingwen/Xinhua via AP  — XI'S 'GLOBAL SECURITY INITIATIVE' EVOKES EYEROLL: President XI JINPING unveiled aGlobal Security Initiative in a keynote speech at last week's Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022. Xi declared it would "promote security for all the world," but didn't provide any details. At the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Wang's efforts tounpack the initiative rendered a word salad, including "non-interference in internal affairs," "reject the Cold War mentality" and "oppose the wanton use of unilateral sanctions." Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI followed on Saturday with a lengthy explanatory essay in the People's Daily. Spoiler alert — amid Europe's first major land war in 70 years that has evoked threats of the use of nuclear weapons — Wang's distillation of Xi's initiative referenced neither Russia nor Ukraine. Instead of an action plan, Wang penned a statement of ideological hostility dedicated to an "abandonment and transcendence of Western geopolitical security theory." "Countries sympathetic to Ukraine will regard China's new security initiative as preposterous, those who side with Russia already share similar positions as China, and many middle countries will find China's security position unsatisfactory and untenable," said MIN YE , associate professor of international relations at Boston University. "However, Chinese strategic circles are engaged in debates and discussions on security rethinking and adaptation to the new environment. Thus, the new security initiative is likely to stifle such debates and limit the scope of disagreements in China." — CENSORS EXCISE SHANGHAI LOCKDOWN VIRAL VIDEO: The official Cyberspace Administration of China last week removed from social media platforms a viral video, " Voices of April," that documented the human toll of Shanghai's "zero-Covid" lockdown, China Digital Times reported Friday. "The video … covers rising case counts, food shortages, stranded truckers, people locked into or out of their buildings, residents hauled off to spartan quarantine facilities, babies and toddlers separated from their parents, and sick or elderly residents unable to receive medical treatment," CDT's SAMUEL WADE reported. Stay tuned for aBeijing-based "Voices of May" video as Omicron's relentless spread across China prompts mass testing and targeted neighborhood lockdowns. HEADLINES POLITICO: " How Far Does China's Influence at U.S. Universities Go? One Student Tried to Find Out" The Nation: " Sex, Death, and Empire: The Roots of Violence Against Asian Women" Hong Kong Free Press: "Hong Kong's one-man election: A spectacularly wasteful exhibition of conspicuous consumption " HEADS UP — BLINKEN: 'CHINA STRATEGY' LAUNCH LOOMS: Secretary of State Blinken told a Senate Foreign Relations Committeehearing on Tuesday that he'll "speak publicly and in some detail" in the coming weeks about the Biden administration's national security strategy toward China. Expect that China strategy to get some attention during Biden's May 20-24 trip to South Korea and Japan. Stay tuned. One Book, Three Questions The cover of the book "The Lettuce Diaries" is pictured. | Liam O'Donnell at The Daily Pencil The Book: The Lettuce Diaries: How a Frenchman Found Gold Growing Vegetables in China The Author: XAVIER NAVILLE was the founder and CEO of Creative Food, a key supplier to major restaurant chains in China, including McDonalds and Starbucks, and now a business coach and corporate strategy consultant. What is the most important takeaway from your book? The excesses and the challenges of China's business operating environment — an executive tries to mount a coup to take over the company and I myself cut corners on food safety — but also how things are changing for the better. After China's infant formula cover-up scandal in 2008, in which thousands of kids were poisoned with melamine-laced milk powder, the government radically modernized its dairy industry. What was the most surprising thing you learned while researching and writing this book? I realized how insulated I was from the reality of many of my employees. One of my executives got kidnapped by a supplier we used to export broccoli to Japan because I hadn't paid him what he expected. In the end, I negotiated a settlement to secure his release. I later understood that the kidnapper was also a man who provided a regular income for hundreds of peasant farmers in his community — he himself felt tremendous pressure. What does your book tell us about the trajectory and future of U.S.-China relations? The nature of U.S.-China relations is often described as one of strategic competition. But both sides have agreed that there will be some areas of mutual interest and agriculture has the potential to be one of those areas. China needs to feed a fifth of the global population with only 7 percent of its arable land while the U.S. feeds only 4 percent of the world with 15 percent of its arable land. The book isn't about food security, but it provides nuanced insight and context into the challenges that China faces as it tries to modernize its agriculture. Thanks to: Ben Pauker, Matt Kaminski, digital producer Raymond Rapada and editor John Yearwood. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at chinawatcher@politico.com.   Follow us

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