| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | DEVELOPING — “U.S. Says Russia Has Violated Nuclear-Arms Treaty by Blocking Inspections,” by WSJ’s Michael Gordon: “The State Department’s finding that Moscow is in ‘noncompliance’ with the accord marks the first time that the U.S. has accused Russia of violating the [New START] treaty, which entered into force in 2011. The lack of inspections has also made it harder to verify the number of warheads Russia has deployed under the accord, the State Department added.”
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Mitch Daniels has opted against a Senate run in Indiana. | Michael Hickey/Getty Images | SIGN OF THE TIMES — A looming GOP primary battle for an open Indiana Senate seat had promised to be a proxy fight for the direction of the party writ large, between former Gov. MITCH DANIELS, an establishment favorite, and Rep. JIM BANKS, the firebrand conservative. In the end, it may not be much of a fight at all. Daniels has opted against a Senate run, Adam Wren scooped this morning. “I conclude that it’s just not the job for me, not the town for me, and not the life I want to live at this point,” Daniels said. Daniels’ decision could sting for the less Trump-friendly wing of the Senate GOP, as his candidacy represented a rare opportunity to claw back ground from the MAGA caucus in a red state. (Incumbent MIKE BRAUN, who is not seeking reelection in order to run for governor,is among the more consistent thorns in Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL’s side.) But as soon as the Daniels news broke, The Party Decides swung into action: The NRSC quickly put out a statement in which Chair STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) all but endorsed Banks, saying he was “looking forward to working with one of our top recruits this cycle.” Word trickled out that McConnell met with Banks last week “and the meeting went very well.” And Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) told Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser that he was endorsing Banks. It’s not a done deal for Banks, who could still face primary opposition from Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ, former Rep. TREY HOLLINGSWORTH, state AG TODD ROKITA and others. But it’s clear which way the wind is blowing right now. THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) told his colleagues today that he won’t sit on the committees to which he was assigned, Olivia Beavers and Sarah Ferris report. Though House Republicans had chosen to give Santos low-profile panels rather than kick him off entirely in the wake of his serial lies, the matter has turned into more of a political liability as Republicans try to boot Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) off House Foreign Affairs. Still, it’s not clear whether Santos’ recusal is temporary or long-term. — Seventy-eight percent of Santos’ constituents say he should resign in a new Newsday/Siena College poll of 3rd District voters. Even two-thirds of those who voted for Santos in November say they wouldn’t have if they’d known what they do now. He has a 6% favorable rating in the district. DOCU-DRAMA — The FBI conducted a search in mid-November of the offices at the Penn Biden Center, with cooperation from President JOE BIDEN’s team, CBS’ Adriana Diaz and Arden Farhi scooped. That was just a couple of weeks after Biden’s lawyers first found the initial batch of classified materials, though it wouldn’t become public for a couple more months. There are no details yet on whether the FBI found more classified docs in Philly. — House Oversight ranking member JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) today asked the Secret Service to furnish visitor logs for Mar-a-Lago and former VP MIKE PENCE’s Indiana home in the wake of classified materials being found there. LIVING THE DREAM — “I followed Nancy Pelosi’s diet of breakfast ice cream and hot dogs for a week, and I ping-ponged between euphoria and the depths of despair,” by Insider’s Sophie Kleeman Good Tuesday afternoon, and thanks for reading Playbook PM. Which members of Congress have the wildest under-reported eating habits? Send details to eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): The Solution is Here. America learned from Europe and has seen over the past year how America’s strong energy position is not inevitable or self-sustaining. It must be cultivated, reinforced, and prioritized by policymakers and the industry alike. API has a plan in three parts to Make, Move, and Improve American energy. | | | THE WHITE HOUSE WHO’S AT DEFAULT — Biden is attempting to set the terms of his conversation tomorrow with Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY with a new White House memo that challenges McCarthy to dig into the details on the debt ceiling standoff. National Economic Council Director BRIAN DEESE and OMB Director SHALANDA YOUNG write that Biden will explicitly ask McCarthy, “Will the Speaker commit to the bedrock principle that the United States will never default on its financial obligations” and “When will Speaker McCarthy and House Republicans release their Budget?” The memo highlights Biden’s efforts to box McCarthy in by forcing him to detail what spending cuts he wants — some of which are likely to be unpopular. @SpeakerMcCarthy fires back: “Mr. President: I received your staff’s memo. I’m not interested in political games. I’m coming to negotiate for the American people.” Reality check: The idea of payment prioritization gaining steam with some conservatives — in which Treasury would keep paying bondholders to avoid a default if Washington can’t make a deal — would wreak havoc if implemented, Semafor’s Joseph Zeballos-Roig reports. As much as a quarter of federal spending would stop immediately, and “vast swaths of the safety net — Medicaid, food stamps, housing vouchers — would also cease to function as normal.” Technically, even keeping Social Security benefits going out regularly might be tough. MEMPHIS FALLOUT — Biden will meet with the Congressional Black Caucus on Thursday to discuss police reform in the wake of TYRE NICHOLS’ death, the White House said today. (But the odds of a congressional breakthrough on the issue already look slim, WaPo’s Leigh Ann Caldwell and Theo Meyer write.) CONGRESS MORE ON THE OMAR VOTE — Spartz told CNN’s Lauren Fox that she might end up reversing and supporting the resolution to kick Omar off if there’s a provision that gives Omar (and others) the ability to appeal to House Ethics with due process. Fox reports that House GOP leaders are thinking about adding that language to win over holdouts. But Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) still sounds like a firm no. SPEAKING OF McCARTHY HEADACHES — Rep. @TonyGonzales4TX: “Defund defense or allow anti-immigrant legislation on the House floor and I am a NO on the debt ceiling. Welcome to the 118th.” IN THE WILDERNESS — “The Squad Is Out of Power — and Relishing a New Fight,” by The New Republic’s Grace Segers: “For the Squad, which have only known their votes to matter, this transition to relative impotence may come with a sharp learning curve, but also opportunity: to present a united front against Republicans, and coalesce more of the party under progressive ideals.” HEADS UP — U.S. Capitol Police said they arrested a 37-year-old man yesterday for impersonating a police officer. He was allegedly found with a stash of knives.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | ALL POLITICS CASH DASH — DONALD TRUMP raised $9.5 million for his presidential campaign over the last six weeks of 2022 — a relatively weak sum after his 2024 launch, NBC’s Jonathan Allen and Marc Caputo scooped. The former president is making changes to his fundraising operation, bringing on Campaign Inbox to get small-dollar donations online. That, plus his impending return to Facebook and the start of direct-mail fundraising, should be able to boost his numbers significantly. — YE’s unofficial 2024 presidential campaign raised no money over the course of 2022, The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger and Zachary Petrizzo report from the latest campaign filing. But the rapper formerly known as Kanye West did incur over $142,000 in expenses, including reimbursing white nationalist NICK FUENTES $9,000 on the day they infamously dined with Trump. 2024 WATCH — Forget the lack of official declarations from GOP primary contenders other than Trump. In Iowa, hardly anyone has even visited so far this year, AP’s Thomas Beaumont reports from Des Moines. Former Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON is the only 2024 possibility to have stopped by this month, with Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) set to come in February. (Even Trump hasn’t gone to Iowa yet this year.) POLL POSITION — A new national survey from The Bulwark and Whit Ayres finds Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS leading Trump 39% to 28% in a 10-candidate field, though Trump retains a solid base of support that could be enough against fractured opposition. RETIREMENT WATCH — Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.) raised just $558.91 in the third quarter of 2022, per her latest campaign filing. MAN IN THE MIDDLE — Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO won a resounding victory by peeling off a substantial amount of GOP support, and now he’s trying to stake out a fairly bipartisan governing approach in office, WaPo’s Colby Itkowitz reports from Harrisburg. It’s an “unusual posture” amid “deep political polarization,” but Shapiro’s positioning has Democrats excited about his example and even some Republicans pleasantly surprised. KEY DEMOGRAPHIC — Whether Democrats can persuade and retain the support of white women will be a crucial question for the party in 2022, USA Today’s Mabinty Quarshie and Ella Lee report. Though the abortion issue helped swing some white women toward Dems last year, Republicans have made inroads on education, and the bloc overall still leans right in most elections. THE ECONOMY WHAT JEROME POWELL IS WATCHING — Wages and benefits rose just 1% in the last quarter of 2022 over the previous quarter, per new Employment Cost Index data out today — a smaller rise than economists had predicted. Since wages are a key driver of inflation, the new numbers could help ease pressure on the Fed to keep raising interest rates so aggressively, though they might also raise some concerns about the softening economy. More from CNBC JUDICIARY SQUARE KNOWING MICHAEL LUTTIG — The conservative former federal judge and key Jan. 6 committee figure gets the WaPo Style section treatment from Manuel Roig-Franzia, who begins with the dramatic telling of the night that Justice ANTONIN SCALIA showed up at Luttig’s door to inform him of his father’s killing. Now, Luttig’s quest against Trump has led him to legal fights, advocacy in state legislatures and public appearances trying to save democracy. “Luttig can think of only one reason he would have been wrested out of quiet semiretirement for this mission. It was, he’s concluded, nothing less than ‘divine intervention.’” NEAL KATYAL: “There’s a good argument … that Judge Luttig, by not being on the Supreme Court, did more for our democracy than most any sitting Supreme Court justice or past one.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD BLINKEN ABROAD — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN met with Palestinian Authority President MAHMOUD ABBAS today in the West Bank, amid a bad spurt of Israeli-Palestinian violence. “Palestinian officials said they hoped that Mr. Blinken might announce a new approach to ending the Israeli occupation of the West Bank,” NYT’s Michael Crowley and Patrick Kingsley report from Ramallah and Jerusalem. “But beyond money for the U.N. relief group, Mr. Blinken had nothing new in hand.” A NEW KIND OF BRIGHT — China is weighing new export controls on key technologies used to create solar panels, which could hamper U.S. efforts to build up solar power, WSJ’s Sha Hua and Phred Dvorak report from Singapore. “The Chinese plans don’t appear to be retaliation for the U.S. semiconductor restrictions but are most likely designed to secure China’s dominance in the solar sector and disrupt efforts by other countries to build their own supply chains.”
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | POLICY CORNER EMERGENCY EFFECTS — “Ending Covid emergency won’t disrupt student debt relief, Biden administration says,” by Michael Stratford for Pros WHAT MICHAEL REGAN IS UP TO — The EPA made it official today: The Biden administration is blocking the proposed Pebble mine in Alaska over concerns about its effects on Bristol Bay salmon. “Fishermen, tribes and other opponents of the mine are hoping the decision spells the project’s demise,” the Anchorage Daily News’ Alex DeMarban reports. “But the copper and gold prospect’s developer and the state of Alaska have previously threatened legal action to reverse it.” PLAYBOOKERS SPOTTED: Boris Johnson meeting with Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a reception honoring House Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) and his staff yesterday evening: Vivian Moeglein, Nancy Peele, Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), Reps. Garret Graves (R-La.), Steve Womack (R-Ark.), Pete Stauber (R-Minn.) and Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Bill Shuster, David Thompson, Heather Reams, Vince Sampson, Toni-Marie Higgins, Michele Lieber, Sam Tatevosyan, Rachel Michael, Mike Hershey, Lynn Hershey, Sean Keating, Tim Monahan, Matt Bravo, Mary Landrieu, Chris Tomassi, Chris Crawford, Stuart Hall, Callie Fuselier, Walt Lukken and Dana Bostic Lukken. — SPOTTED at a reception hosted by BGR Group last night that raised $916,000 for the NRSC: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.), Katie Britt (R-Ala.), Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.), Haley Barbour, Dan Murphy, Justin Rzepka, Joe Lai, Erskine Wells, Bob Wood, Robb Walton, David Urban, Robert Fisher, Brian Herrington, Stefanie Holland, Tony Cirillo, Scott Levy, Brooke Donilon, Ashley De Smeth, Missy Foxman and Ellen McCarthy. MEDIA MOVE — Bill Scher is now politics editor for the Washington Monthly. He previously was a political writer for the Monthly and contributing writer for POLITICO. The announcement TRANSITIONS — Retired Gen. John Hyten is now senior principal at Pallas Advisors. He previously was vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. … Igor Khrestin is now the Bradford M. Freeman managing director of global policy at the George W. Bush Institute. He previously was managing director at FGS Global, and is a Cory Gardner and Mark Kirk alum. … … HHS’ Health Resources and Services Administration is adding Garrett Devenney as chief of staff (previously at Senate HELP) and moving up Diana Espinosa to principal deputy administrator and Jordan Grossman to deputy administrator. … Tamara Brightwell is now a corporate partner at Wilson Sonsini. She most recently was disclosure review program director in the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance. … Angelo Schildhauer is now membership associate at the Council for Responsible Nutrition. He previously was at America Rising. ENGAGED — Tara Elizabeth McGee, tax and trade policy adviser for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), and Sean Michael O’Brien, agriculture export specialist at USDA, got engaged Saturday in Charlottesville, Va., on the third anniversary of their first date. Pic — Nick Williams, VP of technology and product development at X-COR Therapeutics, proposed to Katie Mitchell, founding partner and COO of Narrative Strategies and a CGCN alum, on Saturday on a hike in Shenandoah called Overall Run Falls. They met through mutual friends at an Outer Banks beach weekend. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Mike Biette, booking producer for “The 11th Hour with Stephanie Ruhle” on MSNBC, and Candi Kreinbrink, president of ESE Management, welcomed Samuel Walter Biette yesterday. Pic … Another pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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