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It's really early to write off DeSantis' campaign

Gary Fineout's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
Jun 29, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Gary Fineout

Hello and welcome to Thursday.

The story so far Greetings from Washington, D.C., where there is a steady buzz and narrative starting to build that suggests that it’s already over for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign.

Jumping to conclusions The talking points for this theory include polls that show him trailing former President Donald Trump significantly in states such as New Hampshire and the seeming inability by DeSantis to build any traction as the number two candidate in the race. Conservative radio host Erick Erickson acknowledged in an email last night to his subscribers that a national political reporter told him the perception is that the race is essentially over and Trump will be the nominee.

Look at the clock But could it be that that it’s premature to draw this conclusion during the dog days of summer? It was a different time (and a different political era) but at this same stretch in 2015 former Gov. Jeb Bush was polling in first place according to a national poll done by CNN at the time. Trump was in second place, followed by a long line of Republican candidates.

Bumpy path There’s still about six months left before the first votes will be cast in the GOP race and much could occur between then and now. DeSantis and his campaign have already had their share of awkward moments and bumpy interactions with the public and press in the first month. And it’s still not clear if running to the right of Trump is a winning strategy. But it doesn’t mean everything is locked in already. (And this a campaign — and adjacent super PAC — that has a lot of money to spend.)

In his own words DeSantis, speaking to Fox News’ Martha MacCallum on Wednesday, said “it’s a long road and Rome wasn’t built in a day.” He contended that many voters won’t pay closer attention to the presidential campaign until during the fall and winter and that his campaign was putting together a more robust operation in the states crucial to the nominating contest. He said the goal is to build the type of operation that “when it comes to crunch time” it will “turn on the juice and get the job done.”

Ruminations — One top DeSantis supporter told Playbook he’s heard the same buzz that it’s over as well. But then he asked if Trump is so solidly ahead why does he keep going after DeSantis so hard? “He’s scared,” this supporter said of Trump. But then he added that people can continue to have low expectations for DeSantis and then watch him “shock the world and win Iowa.” That could create pressure for other Republicans to step aside before New Hampshire.

— WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is scheduled to hold a fundraiser for his presidential campaign in New York City.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com

 

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DESANTISLAND

‘IT CERTAINLY HELPS’ — “DeSantis agency sent $92 million in covid relief funds to donor-backed project,” by The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer, Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey: “The administration of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) steered $92 million last year in leftover federal coronavirus stimulus money to a controversial highway interchange project that directly benefits a top political donor, according to state records. The decision by the Florida Department of Transportation to use money from the 2021 American Rescue Plan for the I-95 interchange at Pioneer Trail Road near Daytona Beach fulfilled a years-long effort by Mori Hosseini, a politically connected housing developer who owns two large tracts of largely forested land abutting the planned interchange.”

HMM — “DeSantis’s taxpayer-funded helicopter ride in Texas draws scrutiny,” by The New York Times’ Neil Vigdor and Nicholas Nehamas: "It was a photo op intended to turbocharge Republican voters, one showing Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida posing in front of a helicopter on Sunday at the southern border in Texas. But the display is creating an unwanted spotlight for Mr. DeSantis: The helicopter is funded by Texas taxpayers, raising questions about the political nature of the flight and its cost. Federal law requires presidential candidates to pay the fair-market rate for noncommercial air travel and reimburse providers of flights. In this case, the Texas Department of Public Safety owns the 2008 Eurocopter, according to a Federal Aviation Administration database of aircraft tail numbers."

Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at a town hall meeting in Eagle Pass, Texas.

Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks at a town hall meeting in Eagle Pass, Texas, Monday, June 26, 2023. | Eric Gay/AP Photo

BIDEN V. DESANTIS PART 57 — Justice Department says new Florida law restricting Chinese land ownership is unconstitutional, by POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie: The U.S. Department of Justice this week said a new law signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis that restricts some Chinese citizens from owning property in Florida violates federal law and the U.S. Constitution. DeSantis, who is seeking the Republican nomination for president, said in May that the measure helps Florida lead the way among states in protecting national security.

What DOJ said — But the DOJ said in a “statement of interest” filed in U. S. District Court in Tallahassee that the legislation, SB 264, violates the federal Fair Housing Act and the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. “These unlawful provisions will cause serious harm to people simply because of their national origin, contravene federal civil rights laws, undermine constitutional rights, and will not advance the State’s purported goal of increasing public safety,” the DOJ wrote.

MOUSE TRAP — “Disney investor lawsuit was improperly brought at direction of anti-abortion group, judge says,” by The Hollywood Reporter’s Winston Cho: “Disney won’t have to face an investor suit accusing the entertainment giant of mismanagement for starting a public feud with Gov. Ron DeSantis after opposing a Florida law restricting classroom discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity, a Delaware judge has ruled. Longtime Disney stockholder Kenneth Simeone in December sued the company, seeking internal company documents into ties by officers and directors of the company to political organizations and causes, among other things. Vice Chancellor Lori Will of Delaware’s Court of Chancery, however, found on Tuesday that the investor brought the suit at the direction of the Thomas More Society, a conservative legal organization and prominent anti-abortion group.”

MEANWHILE — “DeSantis wants Disney trial held after presidential election,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Skyler Swisher: “Gov. Ron DeSantis’ legal team wants the trial date for a high-stakes battle with Disney to be in August 2025, well after the presidential election. Disney’s lawyers have another idea: They want to go to trial on July 15, 2024, the same day as Republicans gather in Milwaukee to formally select their party’s next presidential nominee. The two sides’ proposals are outlined in a report filed Tuesday in federal court. It’ll be up to a judge to set the timetable.”

AFTERMATH — “How migrants flown to Martha’s Vineyard came to call it a home,” by The New York Times’ Edgar Sandoval: “Within days, most of the migrants were gone, headed for other parts of Massachusetts and places like New York, Washington and Michigan — places better equipped than a small island to settle people who had arrived with little or nothing of their own. As it turned out, though, not all of them left. [Deici] Cauro is one of at least four migrants who have quietly stayed behind on the island, forming bonds with a community that opened what doors it could. Ms. Cauro, 25, is working as a landscaper. Her brother, Daniel, 29, and her cousin, Eliud Aguilar, 28, found jobs in painting and roofing.”

— “Ron DeSantis finally gets some good news thanks to a new Wisconsin poll,” by Insider’s Brent D. Griffiths

— “Ron DeSantis voted for the First Step Act and hailed its ‘successes.’ He now calls it ‘the jailbreak bill,’” by CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck

— “‘Good luck.’ DeSantis’ promise to end birthright citizenship is easier said than done,” by Miami Herald’s Max Greenwood and Ana Ceballos

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

BIRDLAND — “Trump plots Twitter return,” by Axios’ Sophia Cai: “It may take a while, but former President Trump has entertained the idea of returning to his happy place on Twitter, where he's been absent for nearly 2 1/2 years, sources tell Axios. … Trump still has nearly 87 million followers on Twitter, but hasn't posted there since he was banned after the Jan. 6 riot in 2021. Now a growing number of Trump allies — and some close to his campaign — are expecting him to tweet again.”

— “Trump files counterclaim against E. Jean Carroll, alleging defamation,” by The Washington Post’s John Wagner

— “Trump world fumes over McCarthy’s 2024 slight,” by POLITICO’s Rachael Bade

 — “Trump explores messing with the first GOP debate,” by NBC News’ Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon, Garrett Haake and Henry J. Gomez

 

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CAMPAIGN MODE

FLORIDA DEMS GO HOLLYWOOD — Bradley Whitford, the actor best known for the television show "The West Wing" but who has also played villains in films such as "Get Out" and "Billy Madison," will be the keynote speaker for the Florida Democrats' Leadership Blue gala. The event, which sold out before Whitford was announced, takes place July 8 in Miami Beach. “I’m certain I will not be the only ‘fan girl’ in the room,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. “In so many ways, West Wing gave us the playbook on ‘doing what is hard and achieving what is great’, and predicted so much of what we’re facing in our political landscape today. More recently, his work in The Handmaid’s Tale feels closer to our reality in Florida and we’re looking forward to hearing from him.”

Bradley Whitford attends the AMC Network 2023 Upfront at Jazz at Lincoln Center.

Bradley Whitford attends the AMC Network 2023 Upfront at Jazz at Lincoln Center on Tuesday, April 18, 2023, in New York. | CJ Rivera/Invision/AP Photo

— “‘It’s not the Weebles’: Haley knocks Suarez for Uyghur gaffe,” by The Messenger’s Stephanie Murray

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

POWER PLAY — DeSantis signs bill creating state takeover of city-owned utility, by POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie: Gov. Ron DeSantis on Wednesday signed a bill, despite opposition from environmentalists and Gainesville officials, that provides for him to appoint a state panel to take charge over the city-owned electric and water utility. Republicans said during the bill debate in the House last spring that the utility should be removed from city control because it has too much debt and its electricity rates are too high. But Democrats warned that the move was part of a statewide effort by power companies to take over city-owned utilities.

— “Florida decriminalizes fentanyl test strips as DeSantis touts hard line on drugs,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Ana Goñi-Lessan

— “Florida appeals two rulings regarding gender-affirming care,” by News Service of Florida

— “Alina Garcia accuses Canady of violating rules of candidacy,” by The Floridian’s Jim McCool

— “DeSantis vetoes bill that made it easier for state agencies to buy electric cars,” by News Service of Florida

DATELINE D.C.

PORTFOLIO — “Anti-abortion Rep.’s husband invests in company that uses embryonic stem cells,” by Raw Story’s Dave Levinthal: “Congressional financial disclosures indicate that Andrew Gamberzky, [Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s] husband, holds a stock investment worth between $1,001 and $15,000 in Lineage Cell Therapeutics. … [The company’s research] includes the use of embryonic stem cells derived from human embryos — a practice that many conservatives consider morally fraught, if not reprehensible, amid an age-old debate over the definition of personhood and when life truly begins.”

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

— “Miami arts group to help artists pay rent. ‘Artists deserve to live in the city,’” by Miami Herald’s Amanda Rosa

— “10 deaths caused by dangerous rip currents off Florida and Alabama beaches,” by Associated Press’ Freida Frisaro

— “CNN’s Anderson Cooper coming to Tampa this fall to accept journalism award,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Sharon Kennedy Wynne

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

BIRTHDAYS: Micky Arison, chair of the board of Carnival Corporation and owner of Miami Heat … Sarah Bascom, president of Bascom Communications Christian Ulvert, president of EDGE Communications … Diane Moulton Adams, chief administrative officer at The Southern Group

 

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