The case for chill

Sep 29, 2023

By Myah Ward, Lauren Egan and Lawrence Ukenye

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Plenty of Democrats are freaking out over President JOE BIDEN’s chances of winning reelection. Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) offered the case for panic in Thursday’s newsletter.

But should they just chill the F out? Yes, says PATRICK DILLON, a Democratic strategist whose wife, JEN O’MALLEY DILLON, is the president’s deputy chief of staff. In an interview, he presented the counter argument to the bed wetters. It’s been slightly edited for space.

Why are Dems constantly hand wringing?

I think it’s a constitutional imperative of being a member of the party. To be a Democrat is to be a worrier.

Does the Biden panic feel any more intense than past cycles?

Honestly, no. I don’t think so. Every time it’s like this. D.C. is full of people who are quite sure how they would run and win a presidential campaign.

So what do you tell the panickers?

There’s a serious facts-based thing, and then there’s a more tongue-and-cheek thing.

I worked on Obama’s reelection in 2012. I remember every single poll in 2011 that had Mitt Romney up [by] 1, 2, 3, 4. We knew then, and we should know now, how not really predictive or useful off-year polls of large samples of just adults or registered voters are.

But it’s like therapists say: Anxiety has a real evolutionary purpose to keep you on your toes and watch out for danger. But too much anxiety is a disorder. When it paralyzes you and you spend all your time ruminating and worrying, that’s not healthy.

What about the people worrying Dems aren’t taking Trump seriously?

Anybody who didn’t expect this to be a close, tough race has got their head in the clouds. That’s how presidential elections in the 21st century go. They are close. They are tough.

One of the most ridiculous things in the whole discourse right now is the idea that somehow Joe Biden and the people on the Joe Biden team — the people that have actually run against and beaten Donald Trump — don’t take him seriously enough. It just sort of defies belief to me.

Isn’t Biden’s age driving all the anxiety?

Democrats find something to worry about no matter what. And I think the threat of Donald Trump is a scary enough threat, a real enough threat, that they would find something to be scared about no matter what.

Does your argument change a bit if we’re not talking about a Biden-Trump rematch?

No, I don’t think it does.

For one, I can’t get over the premise. I don’t mean that as attacking your question, but I believe Donald Trump is going to be the nominee. I just don’t see any scenario where that doesn’t happen.

That’s the whole thing. You can panic, and you can worry, be anxious. Or you could deal with reality and deal with where we are and what we’ve gotta do.

Do you view the recent Washington Post-ABC poll as an outlier?

It’s absolutely an outlier. Although, if you average it in with the others, you get to a pretty reasonable average that says it’s sort of a one- to two-point race, one way or the other.

Are you concerned about a last-minute Biden challenger on the Dem side?

No. All of the people whose names get thrown about are all sitting there saying they’re supporting the president. That’s it. Period. End of story.

Just curious, why do you respond so often to the social media panic?

[Chuckles]

People think there’s some grand strategy to my tweeting. It’s a way of blowing off steam and being in the conversation with each other.

Nine times out of 10, it’s me sitting in a dark room waiting for my five-year-old to fall asleep so I can actually leave the room.

MESSAGE US — Are you a Democrat feeling Zen-like about Biden’s chances in 2024? We want to hear from you. And we’ll keep you anonymous! Email us at westwingtips@politico.com.

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POTUS PUZZLER

How did RONALD REAGAN get his nickname, “The Gipper?”

(Answer at bottom.)

Photo of the Week

White House stenographer Amy Sands' drawing

Lauren Egan

White House stenographer AMY SANDS paints a watercolor portrait to pass time in the motorcade during a West Coast trip this week with President Biden. Sands, we believe, is quite talented.

The Oval

WE DON’T THINK IT’S WORKING: As poll after poll suggests, the president’s efforts to brand his economic record under the “Bidenomics” banner have yet to make an impression on voters — and some Democrats are calling on Biden to change his messaging, our ADAM CANCRYN and HOLLY OTTERBEIN report.

“With all due respect to the president, to the White House, this is not so much about them as it is the people who are benefiting by the policies that they came out and demanded,” said Rep. STEVEN HORSFORD (D-Nev.). The White House has so far resisted calls to change course, citing various metrics that show betting on Biden's record will pay off as the election approaches.

A TRIBUTE TO A TRAILBLAZER: Biden remembered Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.), after news of her death was announced Friday. “She was a historic figure, a trailblazer for women and a great friend,” Biden said while speaking at the retirement ceremony for outgoing Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY.

A GRIM MILESTONE: Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE echoed the White House’s call for Russia to release Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, who has now been detained for six months. “As the world knows, Russia’s claims are baseless," she said. "It is clear that Evan is being held for leverage because he’s an American — that should bother every single one of us.” Jean-Pierre said the administration’s efforts to secure the releases of Gershkovich and Marine Corps veteran PAUL WHELAN are ongoing.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO READ: This piece by the Washington Post’s DANA MILBANK about how Republicans are designating the impeachment inquiry into Biden as an “essential” operation that should continue if a government shutdown occurs. “How’s that for a set of priorities? The troops won’t be paid and infants won’t be fed — but the pursuit of Hunter Biden must go on,” Milbank writes. White House communications director BEN LABOLT reposted the piece on X.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by our VICTORIA GUIDA, KATY O'DONNELL and SAM SUTTON about how Fed interest rates are likely to hamper the economy and threaten Biden’s path to securing another term. The impact of the rate hikes could create “a potentially treacherous backdrop for President Joe Biden as he points to still-healthy growth and a robust job market to make his case for reelection,” the reporters write. The Fed has used low unemployment as reason for believing the economy can sustain higher interest rates, but companies may begin to curb hiring as they begin to spend more on debt.

COACH PRIME FACTOR: Biden’s campaign will air a new ad during Saturday's primetime college football matchup between Colorado and the University of Southern California, ABC News’ BRITTANY SHEPHERD reports. The 30-second spot aims to target Black voters and touts the White House’s advancements on racial and economic equity.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING: JOHN HARWOOD’s interview with Biden, which the ex-CNN reporter tweeted would come out “over the weekend” … on ProPublica, we think?

— Attorney General MERRICK GARLAND will join “60 Minutes” on Sunday for an interview with CBS News’ SCOTT PELLEY.

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THE BUREAUCRATS

PERSONNEL MOVES: LUISANA PÉREZ FERNÁNDEZ has been promoted to White House senior director of Coalitions Media. She was previously the White House director of Hispanic Media.

— SATCHEL TSAI is now special assistant in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy at the Department of Energy. She was previously an associate in the Presidential Personnel Office at the White House.

— TAYLOR WRIGHT is now senior adviser for public engagement at the White House. He most recently was program manager for public engagement at the Department of Transportation.

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Agenda Setting

SO, THAT’S A NO? Karine Jean-Pierre was asked today if the president would take up Speaker KEVIN MCCARTHY’s offer to meet in person to discuss the government shutdown. “The people that McCarthy needs to talk to is his own caucus,” she replied. “Not the president.”

We’ll put that down as a maybe, leaning towards unlikely. Minutes later, House Republicans failed to pass a stopgap government funding bill, making a shutdown even more likely.

CAN’T PLEASE EVERYONE: The Biden administration is likely to anger Republicans and environmental advocates over its decision to hold three offshore oil drilling lease sales through 2029, our BEN LEFEBVRE reports. Fossil fuel executives believe the move will hurt U.S. energy production while climate advocates have pushed Biden to end drilling entirely.

Interior Secretary DEB HAALAND believes the sale will aid the administration in supporting its goals of expanding offshore wind power in the Gulf of Mexico.

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What We're Reading

A look at the legacy of Dianne Feinstein (POLITICO’s David Cohen)

How Joe Biden’s Kin Profited Off the Family Name. ‘The Big Guy Is Calling Me.’ (WSJ’s Annie Linskey and James T. Areddy)

Jimmy Carter's Secret to Living to 99, According to His Grandson (TIME’s Olivia B. Waxman)

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

Reagan’s first big acting role was playing ill-fated football star GEORGE GIPP in the 1940 film, “Knute Rockne — All-American.” In one of the movie’s most famous scenes, a dying, bed-ridden Gipp urges his college teammates to win a critical football game in his honor. “Win one for the Gipper,” Reagan says in the film.

The role catapulted the young Reagan to fame, and the nickname “the Gipper” stuck with him forever after.

Thanks to the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute for this question!

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Eun Kyung Kim and Sam Stein.

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