Waiting out Modi

Presented by Team SkyGuardian Canada: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.

Sep 29, 2023 View in browser   By Kyle Duggan and Zi-Ann Lum Presented by Programming note: Ottawa Playbook won’t publish on Monday, Oct. 2. We’ll be back in your inbox bright and early on Tuesday.  Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → Checking in on “the poor Indo-Pacific strategy.” → Disgruntled premiers in the west. → New names in the race for the big chair. DRIVING THE DAY Indian PM Narendra Modi for the G20 Summit, in New Delhi, India, on Sept. 9. | AP ABOUT THAT INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY … It seems so far in the rearview already now, since Parliament began its fall sitting with a bombshell announcement by Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU that shook up bilateral relations with India. One of the questions that’s left up in the air is what this all means for Canada’s vaunted Indo-Pacific Strategy. A “Team Canada” trade mission is planned for Japan in October, but Ottawa’s trade talks with India are on pause and Trade Minister MARY NG’s India trip was scrubbed. Trudeau said Thursday Canada is still pursuing closer ties with the country despite the allegations. — Back to the drawing board?: Canadian Global Affairs Institute Vice President COLIN ROBERTSON said India was seen as a prize trade target as companies look to de-risk from China. Now it’s not clear where it stands. “The poor Indo-Pacific strategy is in pretty bad shape when the relationships of the two biggest countries are deeply strained,” he told Playbook. “We're going to have to rethink this because you can't even get visas to go over.” — Only way out is through: Trudeau’s allegations in the House of Commons that Indian agents were potentially part of an effort to kill a Canadian set off a chain reaction of events that sent relations spiraling. “It's going to be hard, but I think the Indians are opening up to at least discussions, which is the only way I think we’re going to get through this,” Robertson said. — Better shape than it looks: “I don't think we need to rethink at all,” said JANICE STEIN, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs at U of T, who co-chaired Ottawa’s advisory committee on the much-vaunted strategy. She tells Playbook the issue of India’s concerns about support for Khalistan separatism has been a problem in bilateral Canadian-Indian relations for 40 years, and it’s not one that’s going away. “This is an enduring burr under the saddle of our relationship that is not going to go away, but ultimately will not consume it. You have to think that Air India was worse than this.” — Waiting game: In the long term, Stein said this won’t derail partnerships in the works. Short term, visas ended. The trade mission is off the books, Playbook points out. “Off the books for now,” she replies. “The question: for how long? The visa issue — I think it may well be several months. But that's short in the history of this relationship.” So many Indians have family members who want to come to Canada, and so many Canadians who were born in India want to go home and see their families. Not to mention business communities and capital flow. “The pressure will come from inside India to relax those restrictions,” she said. — Another plus: A significant part of the intelligence allegedly linking India to the Sikh activist’s death came from outside Canada. “The United States clearly is investing a great deal of effort in India as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy. It's not going to allow this to derail that strategy.” — A long off-ramp: Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI is in an election year. “We have to wait out the election period and understand pre-election and election politics, just as we understand them in our own country.” — Pressure points: On top of travel warnings and the freeze on trade talks, Canada was also in the middle of renegotiating an agreement on pulse exports with India. “That's a very important export for Canada. India is a big buyer of Canadian pulses.” China started a trade spat over canola in 2019 during the dispute over the detentions of Huawei's MENG WANZHOU and the “Two Michaels.” But then Canada still exported to other countries, who exported to China with a markup. “The issue with canola we had with China was ultimately resolved. So, we need to let tempers cool. We have good friends who are good friends of India, and they will do some of the work for us here.” Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free!   A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada: Leveraging the well-proven MQ-9 platform that has supported Five Eyes and NATO missions for more than a decade, Team SkyGuardian brings together the best in business and technology to serve Canada, the Canadian Armed Forces, and the many industries that support them. Our government and industry team will help ensure Canada’s safety and security for the long term.   For your radar WHO WANTS THE BIG CHAIR — More names have emerged as contenders in the House speakership contest. Liberal MP SEAN CASEYannounced he’ll join the race on the Charlottetown-based Radio-Canada show Le Réveil, saying he’d be the first-ever speaker from Prince Edward Island. Green Party co-leader and noted procedure nerd ELIZABETH MAY is the only party leader to throw her hat in the ring. Liberal MP PETER SCHIEFKE is now in the running, too, his office confirms to Playbook. — The usual suspects: Those came a day after four early names appeared, which included Conservative MP CHRIS D'ENTREMONT, who is currently deputy speaker. Assistant deputy speakers Liberal MP ALEXANDRA MENDÈS and NDP MP CAROL HUGHES are also in the running. All have experience in the job and MPs know what to expect from them. — Person of intrigue: As Playbook mentioned Thursday, Liberal MP GREG FERGUS has been the subject of much chatter. — Not a big talker: In Thursday’s scrums, Liberal MP KEN HARDIE was one of very few who ventured to weigh choices with the media, although he has not made up his mind yet. “Certainly on the Liberal side, there’s some really good people there. I’ve always liked Carol Hughes from the NDP, she’s good people. But who knows. It’s going to be interesting.” The House elects the new speaker on Tuesday. — In the meantime: Dean of the House LOUIS PLAMONDON will be in the chair. CATHERINE LÉVÉSQUE reports: A Bloc MP is about to be the shortest-lived Speaker of the House in Canadian history. — Rules are rules: The sudden speaker’s election sparked some confusion about how a vote would work in a hybrid House. “Only members present in the Chamber in person can vote as this will be done by secret ballot,” speaker’s office spokesperson AMÉLIE CROSSON said in an email. Members who don’t want to be speaker have until 6 p.m. on Monday to tell the clerk of the House that they want their name off the ballot. THE RESISTANCE — Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH’s political fight with Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is far from over. Smith says her government is preparing to employ Alberta’s Sovereignty Act to fight Ottawa’s clean electricity regulations. “I’m hoping we don’t have to use it,” Smith said in a press conference Thursday. Meanwhile in Ottawa, the province has paid for digital billboard vans to drive around the Hill with the slogan, “No one wants to freeze in the dark.” — On the same day: Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE announced his government will be dusting off the notwithstanding clause to double down on the province’s policy that parental consent is needed for students under 16 to change their pronouns or names. Moe has asked the province’s legislative assembly to pass measures to override an injunction issued Thursday by Regina Court of King's Bench Justice MICHAEL MEGAW to pause the policy. Megaw cited “potentially irreparable harm and mental health difficulty” to youth as a result of Saskatchewan's parental inclusion and consent policy. The notwithstanding clause will be used “to protect parental rights,” Moe said in a statement. TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the Toronto area today and will visit a local community center just after 11. He also has a meeting with seniors on his itinerary. Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will take part in an event hosted by the Native Canadian Centre of Toronto to mark the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation. Later in the day, she'll meet with Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW. 9:45 a.m. The department of finance will publish financial results for July. 4 p.m. (1 p.m. PT) NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH and MP TAYLOR BACHRACH are in Laxgalts'ap, B.C. to join the Wilps Ni'isjoohl memorial totem pole rematriation ceremony.   A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada:   WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN Up: Hopes among MPs for a shot at the Farm. Down: Take a guess. MEDIA ROOM — This morning's talker via MURRAY BREWSTER of CBC News: Federal government looking to cut C$1B from National Defence budget. — DYLAN ROBERTSON of The Canadian Press reports: Cyberattacks hit military, Parliament websites as India hacker group targets Canada. — The Citizen features a listing of Ottawa events that will mark the third annual National Day for Truth and Reconciliation. — SEAN SPEER elaborates on ideas he advanced on Cross Country Checkup: We no longer need the CBC. — “A re-elected Trump could do anything, including pulling out of NATO,” NICHOLAS VINOCUR and CHRISTOPHER PILTZ write for POLITICO Europe of the notion that the last president of the United States could also be the next one. In a feature titled “Can Europe Survive Trump 2.0,” the POLITICO reporters talked to diplomats, insiders and observers in Europe and discovered there are no contingency plans. — In related news, U.S. President JOE BIDEN on Thursday declared that America must overcome new tests to its democracy, delivering his clearest warnings yet about what he believes is at stake in his coming reelection campaign, POLITICO’s LAUREN EGAN and JONATHAN LEMIRE report. — PAUL WELLS spoke to B.C. Premier DAVID EBY about India, opioids, housing, energy and more. Listen here.  PROZONE If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Red lines on green regs. In other news for Pro subscribers:  — JOE MANCHIN lays out legal path for challenging White House EV requirements. — JOE BIDEN’s cancer moonshot aims to spur cutting-edge tech and simple prevention. — Since when is populism the enemy of conservatism? — 4 things to watch in Biden's offshore oil plan. — Oil execs on Biden, record production and 2050 outlook.   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of the first episodes in September – click here.     Playbookers Birthdays: HBD to WWF President and CEO MEGAN LESLIE, former politician and diplomat KEVIN VICKERS, retired senator and mayor ART EGGLETON (80!) and former MP STELLA AMBLER.LISA MAYOR, new to CBC's Parliamentary bureau, also celebrates today. Saturday celebrations: WILLIAM STAIRS, who served as d-comm for two federal party leaders, as well as director of issues management for STEPHEN HARPER.  On Sunday: Liberal MP SUKH DHALIWAL, philanthropist and child care advocate MARGARET MCCAIN, Canadian businessman JIM PATTISON and former U.S. President JIMMY CARTER.  Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: At writer and Counsel Public Affairs SVP JOHN DELACOURT’s book launch for his new novel “Provenance”: SUSAN DELACOURT, SUSAN HARADA, DON NEWMAN, BRIAN BOHUNICKY, JACOB GLICK from Telus, CIBC’S MICHEL LIBOIRON, RBC’S GEORGE WAMALA, NICK MASCIANTONIO. N.W.T. Premier CAROLINE COCHRANE, announcing she will not be seeking re-election. ADIL SHAMJI, exiting the Ontario Liberal leadership race. Political scientist ALEX MARLAND flagging “a monumental shift in federal party support” in Newfoundland & Labrador. Conservative MP MICHAEL BARRETT using his SO31 on Thursday to express a little pre-Thanksgiving gratitude: “I am mindful of what and who I am thankful for, like my wife Amanda and our children Luke, Ama, Michaela, James and Nathan.” Romanian Foreign Minister LUMINIȚA ODOBESCU meeting with MARIE-FRANCE LALONDE, parliamentary secretary to National Defense Minister BILL BLAIR … ROB OLIPHANT doing diplomatic rounds, meeting new Slovak Republic Ambassador to Canada VIERA GRIGOVÁ. Conservative hockey: Back on ice. … LAUREEN TESKEY HARPER and RONA AMBROSE, hiking Grizzly Col in Kananaskis. Housing Minister SEAN FRASER with Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE at a meeting Thursday morning at city hall. Noted: The headline from GARY ANANDASANGAREE’s first one-on-one interview as minister with APTN: “Crown-Indigenous Relations minister non-committal on funding landfill search.” Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE no longer has “Purpose Bitcoin” listed among his assets, according to an updated ethics disclosure summary posted this week. Also gone: Poilievre’s joint ownership of Liberty West Properties Inc., a Calgary-based private real estate investment company. Movers and shakers: PHILIP FAWZI RIZCALLAH was reappointed CEO of the Canadian Accessibility Standards Canada on a two-year term … SANDRA ROSCH was reappointed on a three-year term as chair of the board of the Canada Development Investment Corporation. ANDY SINGH, Rubicon Strategy’s new recruit, signing up to lobby for Doornekamp Construction, Blue Wolf Capital, Flair Airlines, EarthDaily Analytics and Manulife. Earnscliffe’s VELMA MCCOLL, newly registered to lobby on behalf of Sweden’s H2 Green Steel for Strategic Innovation Fund cash and other federal funds “to support the building of a hydrogen green steel plant in Canada.” The Canadian Media Producers Association has a new board chair: DAMON D’OLIVEIRA. Media mentions: TAMARA KHANDAKER hosts her final episode of the Front Burner pod today. Host JAYME POISSON is on maternity leave until the new year.   A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada: Learn about the remotely piloted multi-mission aircraft built on Canadian industrial partnerships to deliver sovereignty and security for Canada.   TRIVIA Thursday’s answer: Sept. 28, 1972 was the eighth and final game of the Summit Series: Team Canada against the Soviet Union. Props to SARAH MAY, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, DARREN MAJOR, DOUG RICE, MICHAEL MACDONALD, DAVID VALENTIN and ROBERT MCDOUGALL. Today’s question is from reader J.D.M. STEWART:  Who said in the 1987 NFB film “Dancing Around the Table”: “Our people cannot be packaged and put into the four corners of the history book and put on a shelf. 'Here, read about these people.' What we do have is a historical continuum that has begun beyond the memory of all those in this room." Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best . Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Emma Anderson and Luiza Ch. Savage.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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