A cancer reality check

The ideas and innovators shaping health care

Feb 02, 2024 View in browser   By Carmen Paun, Ruth Reader, Daniel Payne and Erin Schumaker WORLD VIEW Humanity is a long way from beating cancer, according to the World Health Organization. | Getty Images Cancer cases will skyrocket in the next 25 years, the World Health Organization’s cancer agency predicts. That’s despite President Joe Biden’s moonshot campaign to reduce the cancer death rate by half over that quarter century. Unwelcome news: The WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer projects that the world will see more than 35 million new cancer cases by 2050, a nearly 80 percent increase from the estimated 20 million cases globally in 2022. The increase is partly due to expected population growth, but it’s also because the WHO thinks elderly people will make up a greater share of the total and people worldwide will continue to smoke and drink and breathe polluted air. Obesity is also among the key factors behind the grim estimate, the WHO said. Hardest hit: Rich countries will see the biggest rise in the absolute number of cases — nearly 5 million by 2050 —but low-income countries will have the largest proportional increase — 142 percent — by the same year, the WHO projects. “Those who have the fewest resources to manage their cancer burdens will bear the brunt of the global cancer burden,” said Freddie Bray, head of the agency’s cancer surveillance branch. Where we stand: About 1 in 5 people develop cancer in their lifetime, and approximately 1 in 9 men and 1 in 12 women die from the disease. Nearly 10 million people died from cancer in 2022, the latest year for which the WHO has data available. The estimated number of people who were alive in 2022 within five years of receiving a cancer diagnosis was 53.5 million. Lung cancer was the most common form and the leading cause of cancer death. Breast cancer was the second most common type of cancer, followed by colorectal cancer. But less than half of the 115 countries the WHO surveyed covered the basics of cancer management as part of their core health services for citizens, the WHO said. And only a third of the countries covered palliative care.   CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.     WELCOME TO FUTURE PULSE Sonoma County, Calif. | Shawn Zeller/POLITICO This is where we explore the ideas and innovators shaping health care. Leaves of three, let it be – or just use this app. University of Florida researchers have developed an AI-powered tool to help hikers and people who work outside identify poison ivy, according to a new study. Share any thoughts, news, tips and feedback with Carmen Paun at cpaun@politico.com, Daniel Payne at dpayne@politico.com, Ruth Reader at rreader@politico.com or Erin Schumaker at eschumaker@politico.com. Send tips securely through SecureDrop, Signal, Telegram or WhatsApp.  CHECKUP Patients think AI will help care for their hearts, a survey found. | AP Three in 5 Americans believe that artificial intelligence will lead to better heart care, according to a survey from the Cleveland Clinic. Even so: The survey — which included a representative group of 1,000 Americans — found that people aren’t ready to give up their human doctors yet. The survey found: — 72 percent believe chatbots offer accurate health advice. — 22 percent are already consulting a bot, or similar AI tech, when they have health questions. — 89 percent still plan to consult a doctor before doing what a chatbot suggests. Takeaways: Cleveland Clinic doctors are enthused about AI’s prospects. Cardiologist Ashish Surraju said AI can “help process data for certain studies like echocardiograms, or CT scans, or MRI.” He also sees wearable devices, such as smartwatches, as potential treasure troves of health data and hopes that will help patients “feel empowered.”   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S GOVERNORS SUMMIT: Join POLITICO on Feb. 22 to dive into how Governors are wielding immense power. While Washington remains gridlocked, governors are at the center of landmark decisions in AI and tech, economic development, infrastructure, housing, reproductive health and energy. How are they setting the stage for the future of American politics, policies and priorities? How are they confronting major challenges? Explore these questions and more at the 2024 Governors Summit. REGISTER HERE.     WORKFORCE For some therapists, it's a telehealth visit or none at all. | Toby Talbot/AP Thirteen percent of mental health therapists serving Medicare enrollees have gone virtual only, according to a discussion paper published in JAMA Health Forum. That could mean fewer choices for patients in the future. As more practitioners switch to online-only visits, the government’s requirement that therapists see patients in person may hamper access to care at a time when Americans’ mental health is suffering. Starting in 2025, Medicare recipients receiving mental health care via telehealth must attend one in-person session a year. Some state Medicaid offices also require an in-person visit, even if most mental health visits are conducted online. The study authors, from Harvard Medical School, the RAND Corporation and the Greater Los Angeles VA Medical Center among others, lay out two concerns: Mental health practitioners who only practice online won’t be able to meet the standard. Some patients, particularly those who live in rural areas or can’t find childcare, could have a hard time getting to an in-person visit even once a year. Researchers add that women will likely be disproportionately affected by the in-person requirement. Why it matters: Suicide is on the rise and a leading cause of death in the United States. Certain Medicare and Medicaid recipients could be particularly vulnerable if they lose access to care. Between 2020 and 2021, suicide rates increased 14 percent for Black women. Meanwhile, older people have high rates of suicide despite representing an overall low number of suicide deaths a year. Men 55 and older had nearly 30 deaths per 100,000, according to CDC data.   Follow us on Twitter Carmen Paun @carmenpaun Daniel Payne @_daniel_payne Ruth Reader @RuthReader Erin Schumaker @erinlschumaker   Follow us

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