PROTEST AT THE POLLS — When President Joe Biden urged the Democratic National Committee in late 2022 to upend the primary calendar and elevate Michigan to early primary status, he was likely imagining the multi-racial coalition that had helped deliver him the presidency in 2020 coming together to launch him towards the general election. Now, some of those same voters are causing his campaign grief — and could, depending on the results of Tuesday’s primary, do even more damage. A group of progressives — many of whom are Arab American or have ties to Palestine — are vowing to vote “Uncommitted” on the Democratic primary line for president due to Biden’s continued support for Israel, a protest vote that would lay bare the depth of ill will towards the president on his left flank that’s been engendered by his response to the Israel/Hamas war. A protest vote might not normally make much of a dent in an incumbent president’s reelection campaign. But what makes this situation potentially problematic for Biden is that there are 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim and 300,000 who claim Middle East or North African descent in Michigan, largely concentrated around Detroit and in the suburb of Dearborn. These communities are numerous and politically active enough that the state even provides voter registration and absentee vote applications in Arabic. A dedicated number of these voters — the good majority of whom have previously voted for Democrats — are at the leading edge of a campaign to vote “Uncommitted.” Depending on how many of them vote that way, Biden — already riding low in the polls — could suffer a significant embarrassment, generating another round of hand-wringing about his prospects in November. Listen to Michigan, the group organizing the effort, is setting a modest goal of 11,000 extra voters to go Uncommitted — the margin of Donald Trump’s victory in the state in 2016. But around 20,000 Michiganders have voted on the “Uncommitted” line in recent Democratic presidential primaries without any organized effort at all. So any number above that would give a sense of how deep the unrest runs. The activists leading the “Uncommitted” effort are not the first group to attempt to send a message to Biden through the primary process this year. In New Hampshire, a late campaign to write in “ceasefire” on the ballot largely failed to get off the ground and only resulted in around 1,500 “ceasefire” votes among well over 100,000 total ballots cast. Biden ended up easing any doubts about his by piling up 64 percent of the vote as a write-in candidate. But the Michigan effort is more organized and has garnered the backing of elected officials and other prominent names in the state. The campaign has in part been spearheaded by Abraham Aiyash, the Michigan House majority leader, and it has the support of Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who represents Dearborn in Congress. It also has the backing of filmmaker Michael Moore, a Michigan native who endorsed the “Uncommitted” ballot line on MSNBC Thursday evening, arguing that Biden’s “hugging [Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu]” and funding of the war has “turned young people against Biden.” Notably, Moore has been a staunch backer of Biden’s domestic policy and has advocated strongly against former President Donald Trump. He still thinks Democratic voters in Michigan need to send Biden a message. The problem for Biden is that signs of support for a protest vote are growing, not diminishing. The Uncommitted campaign has also grabbed the attention of other groups that are deeply frustrated with Biden policies. Dzovinar Hatsakordzian — a national board member of the Armenian National Committee of America — is urging Armenian Democrats in Michigan to vote “Uncommitted” because he “armed Azerbaijan’s genocide of Artsakh’s indigenous Armenians.” The ANCA has circulated graphics that read “Michigan’s Armenian voters will remember this November that Biden armed Azerbaijan and abandoned Armenians to genocidal killers.” There are just under 20,000 Armenians in Michigan, only a fraction of whom will vote in the Democratic primary. In competitive primaries in 2020 and 2016 respectively, over 1.4 million people and around 1.2 million people voted in the primary. In the most recent Democratic presidential contest featuring an incumbent president, a 2012 caucus, 174,000 people voted in Michigan. This year, over 800,000 people have voted early so far across both the Democratic and Republican primaries in the state. There’s little chance that “Uncommitted” bests the president. But the higher that number is, the higher the likelihood the result leaves a bruise. In part that’s because Biden himself sought to elevate Michigan’s stature on the primary calendar. But it’s also due to the state’s recent history of playing a high-profile role in the Democratic nomination process. In 2016, Michigan gave Bernie Sanders’ campaign some much needed life; four years later, the state all but wrapped up the nomination for Biden. This year, it’s set to prove that Biden either has enduring strength among both progressive and ethnic communities in Michigan or that he has a real problem on his hands. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
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