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By STUART LAU
with PHELIM KINE
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HAPPY LUNAR NEW YEAR! China Watcher wishes everyone a successful, prosperous and peaceful Year of the Dragon. This is Stuart Lau in Brussels. Phelim Kine will report from Washington on Thursday.
TOP ENVOY TOURS EUROPE
WHAT A TIME TO BE HERE: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to travel to Europe later this week, according to five diplomats with knowledge of the matter. He is planning to travel to Munich for the annual security conference, as well as Paris and Madrid. Beijing couldn’t have hoped for a better moment for a visit.
Trump’s threat shocks the Continent: Wang’s expected arrival comes as Europe is fretting about the future of its own security. Over the weekend, U.S. Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump ratcheted up his skepticism over NATO, openly inviting Russia to attack Europe as a punishment for those countries which have failed to meet the 2 percent defense spending target. Europe is united in dismay — and uncertainty about the future beyond the November election.
Transatlantic troubles: An impending breakdown of the transatlantic relationship is not only good news for the Kremlin, but also for China’s leadership in the Zhongnanhai. Under the Joe Biden administration, the EU has been working closely with the U.S. in rolling out economic security measures against China, while transatlantic sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine also opened the possibility of a similar action in case China invades Taiwan.
When Trump was in power last time, Beijing and Europe were in constant flirtation mode. China used every meeting to pat Europe on the back for talking up “strategic autonomy;” Berlin deepened its dependency on the auto trade and 5G technology with China; Italy signed the Belt and Road agreement with Beijing; and the European Union clinched a massive investment agreement with China just days before Biden came to power.
Watch out for China’s message: Wang is expected to give a speech on Saturday, explaining Beijing’s position on subjects including its relationship with the U.S., the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East (where it will act as a spokesperson for Palestine.)
BUT EU SANCTIONS ARE ON THE WAY: Brussels is for the first time planning to sanction companies in mainland China, along with several other countries including Turkey, India and Serbia, for helping Russia circumvent sanctions and buy dual-use goods, several diplomats told Jakob Hanke Vela.
We'll get the result tomorrow: Brussels is now preparing to sanction four Chinese companies which it believes are helping Russia buy European dual-use goods sanctions. The EU has so far shied away from directly singling out China, as EU countries such as Germany urged Brussels to scrap plans to sanction non-EU countries that help Russia. The plan still requires approval from the 27 countries' ambassadors to the EU on Wednesday.
FRANCE AND SPAIN NEXT: In addition to Munich, European diplomats said Wang is expected to visit Paris and Madrid. If the trip materializes, this will see his first meeting with France’s new Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, and potentially a courtesy call with President Emmanuel Macron like he did in the past. Wang would be laying the ground work President Xi Jinping‘s visit to Paris later this year, which could take place around May.
Paris probes Huawei: It won’t be just nice chats while in Paris, though. The French office of Chinese telecom vendor Huawei was searched last week as part of a preliminary investigation over a "breach of probity" the authorities confirmed to POLITICO’s Mathieu Pollet and Alexandre Lechenet. That’s a highly serious bracket in French law that includes favors and corruption. Huawei said in a statement it "has cooperated fully with the investigations and will continue to do so." It added it "does not wish to comment on an ongoing investigation" but "remains confident about its conclusions."
US-EU ON CHINA
SIXTH TIME: U.S. Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland last week hosted the sixth round of U.S.-EU dialogue on China with Stefano Sannino, the European External Action Service’s second in command.
Observation from the room: Sannino told China Watcher the dialogue focused on the work done on each side to lessen dependency on China. They also discussed Beijing’s close ties with Moscow.
Working on derisking: “It is important that we see clearly which are the elements that we need to take care of in order to derisk,” he said in an interview.
Homework at home: Sannino said it’s time for the EU to “work together with member states, because this is very much a competence for the member states to implement all the work … on investments or export control.” He added: “It’s time to create the proper toolbox that can allow the European economy to reduce its level of dependence and its level of potential exposure to any risks that is coming from third countries.”
Xi-Putin: Sannino said the discussion with Nuland also touched upon the no-limits partnership between China and Russia. “[It] is always present in our conversation,” he said.
“We have said several times that we are very worried about what this would entail, especially when it comes to the imposition of sanctions, sanction circumventions, military supply — [I’m] not saying that this is what’s happening, [but] we are stressing very much … it is important that China is not using this partnership to work in these areas.”
**Not going to Munich for the Security Conference? Don’t worry, our Pro Defense team has got you covered. Join us online on February 19 as we debrief you on what happened.**
SCOOP: FORCED LABOR GOES ON
FORCED LABOR IN XINJIANG GETS WORSE, NEW RESEARCH SHOWS: Two years after a damning U.N. report detailing China's use of forced labor, the situation has got worse, especially when it comes to the forced transfers of the Uyghur Muslim workforce in the region of Xinjiang, according to new research shared exclusively with POLITICO.
Old scheme in a new bottle: According to Beijing-sanctioned academic Adrian Zenz , the local government in Xinjiang has been carrying out mass internment with reeducation and other policies aimed at assimilating the Muslims under the mantra of "high-quality development."
"Under this new strategy, the state prevents people from returning to an unapproved state of low measurable income based on traditional livelihoods, including through abandoning state-arranged jobs," Zenz said, adding that Beijing has made forced labor "less visible and more challenging to conceptualize."
Worsening situation: Xinjiang's "Poverty Alleviation Through Labor Transfer program continues to expand," Zenz, Director in China Studies at the Washington-based Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, wrote in a new report which will be formally published this week.
From tomatoes to EV batteries: The labor transfer scheme, according to Zenz, "is the only forced labor policy that has been directly linked to the production of cotton, tomatoes and tomato products, peppers and seasonal agricultural products, seafood products, polysilicon production for solar panels, lithium for electric vehicle batteries, and aluminum for batteries, vehicle bodies, and wheels." Looking at you, European consumers.
Industrial parks are the "premier destinations for the most coercive forms of labor transfers and the forced work placements of re-education detainees," Zenz added.
The 2023 work plan for one of the Xinjiang counties, Karakax, outlines a continued acceleration of industrial park expansion together with the promotion of "labor-intensive industrial clusters," including the "vigorous development" of "labor-intensive enterprises" such as those producing textile and clothing, or electronic product assembly lines and light industrial manufacturing.
China's defense: The Chinese mission to the European Union has not responded to a request for comment. Beijing has previously criticized Zenz for spreading disinformation — despite the U.N.'s similar findings in 2022 — adding that the policies in Xinjiang were effective in rooting out what it calls terrorists, extremists and secessionists.
Europe struggles to get its act together: Five years after it first came under pressure from the U.S., however, the European Union is still in the process of finding a solution — and time is running out, my colleague Antonia Zimmerman writes in to report.
The EU's ban on imports of products made with forced labor is at risk of falling through the legislative cracks as policy business in Brussels winds down before June's European election, with the next round of political negotiations scheduled for early March.
Lawmakers ask VW to drive itself out: After chemicals giant BASF last week announced it will end two of its joint-ventures in Xinjiang, German politicians from all three co-governing parties are calling on automaker Volkswagen to leave the region as well. A report from NGO Human Rights Watch earlier this month found that global carmakers, including Volkswagen, are not doing enough to ensure the aluminum they use wasn't made using the forced labor of Uyghurs.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
BIDEN'S TIKTOK REAPS 'SPY APP' SLAM: President Joe Biden's reelection campaign launched a TikTok account on Sunday with an ad riffing off the Super Bowl showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) wasn't impressed. "Biden campaign bragging about using a Chinese spy app even though Biden signed a law banning it on all federal devices," Hawley said in an X post.
CHINA HAWK GALLAGHER TO LEAVE CONGRESS: Rep. Mike Gallagher(R-Wis.), chair of the House Select Committee on China, will not seek reelection this November. Gallagher announced his decision in an X post on Saturday in which he said that "Congress is no place to grow old." Gallagher has made the committee the congressional focal point for research, hearings and legislative recommendations to address China's perceived military, economic and technological threats since its 2023 launch. Gallagher told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel he would enter the private sector at the end of his term, but would continue to focus on national security and defense policy. POLITICO's Olivia Alafriz has the full story here.
STATE SEES GROWING INDO-PACIFIC RISKS: The State Department's celebratory press release marking successes of the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy on its second anniversary warned of trouble ahead. "We have seen the PRC become more repressive at home and more assertive abroad, undermining human rights and international law, and seeking to reshape the international order. We have seen the DPRK continue to expand its unlawful nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. The impacts of climate change pose an existential threat to small island states," the State Department said in a statement on Friday.
CHINA THREAT RHETORIC ROILS THE HEARTLAND: Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), a member of the House Select Committee on China, has picked a fight with former longtime Carmel, Ind. Mayor James Brainard about his alleged links to Chinese Communist Party influence operations. And Brainard is punching back. Banks is " telling outright lies about me," Brainard told the Indy Star newspaper on Friday. Brainard was responding to Banks' comments in an interview on the All Indiana Politics podcast earlier this month in which he said that during a trip to China in November hosted by the nonprofit advocacy group the U.S. Heartland China Association, Brainard "was wined and dined – expensive liquor, massages." Banks said the association works with Chinese government-backed groups to "infiltrate and influence the United States and other foreign governments." Brainard called Banks' comments a politicized smear made "solely for the purposes of getting elected" in his run for a Senate seat. Neither Banks nor Brainard responded to requests for comment.
IN HEADLINES
BLOOMBERG: Taylor Swift wows Chinese women tired of Xi's conservative era.
FINANCIAL TIMES: Abu Dhabi AI group G42 sells its China stakes to appease US.
NEW YORK TIMES: How China built BYD, its Tesla killer.
TIME: Why the Philippines is increasingly keeping a close eye on Taiwan.
WALL STREET JOURNAL: How China miscalculated its way to a baby bust.
MANY THANKS: To editor Christian Oliver, reporters Jakob Hanke Vela, Antonia Zimmerman, Mathieu Pollet, Alexandre Lechenet, Katherine Tully-McManus, Ursula Perano, Olivia Alafriz and producer Seb Starcevic.
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