Cut, baby, cut

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.

Feb 21, 2024 View in browser   By Lara Seligman, Connor O’Brien, Lee Hudson, Paul McLeary, Matt Berg and Alexander Ward The Air Force is expected to cut its purchases of the F-35 fighter jet by 18 percent this year. | Eric Baradat/AFP via Getty Images With help from Joseph Gedeon Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Pentagon is planning some tough cuts following the debt limit deal Biden administration officials struck with congressional leaders last year. That is indeed DANIEL CRAIG’s Southern accent you hear, because the knives are out. The Defense Department, which plans to roll out its fiscal 2025 budget request within the next month, intends to reduce the number of planned F-35 fighter jets, a nuclear-powered attack submarine, and a long-planned Army helicopter program in order to stay under the spending caps set under the deal. The budget request would fund the department at just under $850 billion in fiscal 2025, according to two U.S. officials and a congressional aide who were granted anonymity to discuss the military’s blueprint. That total is DOD’s portion of the federal spending levels laid out in the debt limit agreement President JOE BIDEN signed into law last summer, which caps overall national defense spending at $895 billion for the coming fiscal year. Compared to DOD’s projected levels for fiscal 2025 outlined in its last budget submission, the $850 billion total amounts to a $10 billion cut, or more than 1 percent of the department’s overall budget. One percent may sound small, especially in the context of a nearly $1 trillion annual budget. But because pay raises for troops and other personnel bills are set in stone, the bulk of the cuts will need to come from weapons modernization programs. The Navy, for example, has been discussing plans to push back funding for its next nuclear-powered submarine, according to a congressional staffer and an industry official. Meanwhile, the Army recently announced a massive overhaul of its aviation programs, including shelving major helicopter and drone projects and putting that money toward aircraft the Army believes are most necessary on the modern battlefield. And the Air Force is expected to cut its purchases of the F-35 fighter jet by 18 percent this year, according to a second congressional staffer, on top of a major structural shakeup that would consolidate some of its major three-and four-star commands. The DOD budget topline and F-35 news was first reported by Reuters. The tightly constrained Pentagon topline is complicated by continued inflation, a 5.2 percent troop pay raise and other expenses such as the unexpectedly heavy pace of operations in the Middle East and Red Sea — narrowing the portion of the budget that can be trimmed and making cuts particularly tricky. The Pentagon budget will be part of the White House’s governmentwide request expected in early March. Once that happens, the Pentagon brass will have to face lawmakers and defend their program cuts to meet the tight constraints of the debt deal. Read Lara, Connor, Lee and Paul’s full story. A message from Lockheed Martin: Make Any Point your Center of Command Lockheed Martin, guided by our 21st Century Security vision, is driving innovation to connect data points across domains to elevate the capabilities of crucial platforms, empowering customers to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn More.   The Inbox IRANIAN MISSILE QUESTION: The Biden administration can’t confirm reports that Iran sent hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles to Russia, a U.S. official told NatSec Daily. Reuters reported today that many of the 400 missiles provided were short-range ballistic weapons, capable of striking targets between 186 and 435 miles away. The deal was finalized late last year during meetings in Moscow and Tehran, and shipments began in January, one Iranian source told the outlet. But the U.S. official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, said “we have not yet seen any evidence of the missiles actually being transferred to Russia, adding that “it’s something we have been monitoring and are actively looking into.” Reuters’ report also cites a U.S. official saying the administration had indications of delivery. In January, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said negotiations between Russia and Iran over the transfer of ballistic missiles were “actively advancing.” “We assess that Russia intends to purchase missile systems from Iran,” he added. BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies argues the U.S. needs to be tougher on Iran for aiding Russia’s war efforts. “Iran’s increased willingness to be junior partner to Russia and China must be met with greater consequences,” he told NatSec Daily. SECGEN RUTTE?: More than 20 countries support Dutch Prime Minister MARK RUTTE’s bid to be the next NATO secretary general, our own STUART LAU reports, with about 10 more nations left to make their preference known. It’s unclear if the U.S. is one of those nations. “After very intense rounds of discussions among the allies we are now at the point where over 20 NATO allies are prepared to support Prime Minister Rutte as the next secretary-general,” a NATO official told Lau. Rutte, who has been campaigning for the job since November, is the only name put forward by the alliance’s 31 member governments, the official said. The official added that the discussions “are not final” but added: “There is increasing momentum behind his candidacy.” Estonian Prime Minister KAJA KALLAS expressed interest in the NATO top job during an event hosted by POLITICO in November. But NATO officials say she’s not in the mix since she has not declared her candidacy. The same goes for Latvia’s Foreign Minister KRIŠJĀNIS KARIŅŠ, who did a mini media tour last year to test the waters. RUSSIAN MOMENTUM: Russian troops have launched several attacks against the village of Robotyne in southern Ukraine, trying to take land won by Ukrainian forces in its summer counteroffensive. Ukraine’s military fought back assaults every day from Saturday to Tuesday, The New York Times’ CONSTANT MÉHEUT reports. Open-source maps show that Moscow has made marginal gains to the west and south of the village. The attacks follow Russian troops taking the city of Avdiivka, which the Biden administration blamed on Congress’ inability to pass funding for Ukraine. During the retreat, hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers either disappeared or were captured, senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Kyiv told NYT’s JULIAN BARNES, THOMAS GIBBONS-NEFF and ERIC SCHMITT. But while Kyiv is struggling, Moscow doesn’t “have the strength” to achieve its goal of seizing the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions this year, Ukraine military intelligence chief Lt. Gen. KYRYLO BUDANOV told The Wall Street Journal’s JAMES MARSON. He said Russia is using more ammo than it can produce, is running low on missiles and pointed out that most of Moscow’s tanks are old or refurbished. Part of that assessment was backed up by Western officials, who told Reuters that Russia doesn’t have the domestic production capability to keep up with the war: "We do not believe Russia has a meaningful plan beyond continuing to fight in the expectation that Russian manpower and equipment numbers will eventually tell," one official said. READ ON RAFAH: The situation on the ground in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah is chaotic, with overcrowded streets filled with civilians afraid that Israel's military could attack the city at any moment, a student on the ground told our own JOSEPH GEDEON. “There's no safe place to go to,” said HEBA ALMAQADMA, an English-Arabic translator and pharmacy student, explaining that there’s little fresh food for the more than 1 million people taking shelter in the area. It’s still difficult to access the internet because electricity isn’t available most days, Almaqadma said. She had lived in northern Gaza at the beginning of the war but was forced to move south after sheltering in the Al-Shifa hospital with her family, and “constant” bombings caused frequent information outages. Her biggest concern is that Israel’s operation could overwhelm, or even target, the city’s two remaining hospitals: “One bomb in Rafah can cause many more serious injuries because Rafah is really crowded, hospitals are crowded, streets are crowded, tents are in the streets.” IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      ELECTION 2024 ‘A FORM OF NAVALNY’: Former President DONALD TRUMP likened the $355 million judgment against him in a New York civil trial to the death of Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY during a Fox News town hall on Tuesday evening, our own ALEX ISENSTADT and MERIDITH McGRAW reported. “It is a form of Navalny. It is a form of communism or fascism,” he said. Trump compared himself to Navalny, the outspoken critic of Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN who died in prison on Friday, on several occasions during the event. Earlier in the town hall, Trump praised Navalny as a “very brave guy” because he chose to return to Russia after being poisoned, though Trump said he “probably would have been a lot better off staying away and talking from outside.” Keystrokes CHIP ON CHINA’S SHOULDER: The Biden administration cut off China's top sanctioned semiconductor manufacturer from some American imports after it made chips for a phone produced by tech giant Huawei, Reuters’ ALEXANDRA ALPER and KAREN FREIFELD report. Late last year, the Commerce Department sent letters to U.S. suppliers, calling on them to stop selling chips to the most advanced factory owned by the Chinese-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. Many companies had already stopped selling to the factory, but the letters resulted in the cancellation of millions of dollars worth of chipmaking material from at least one supplier, the outlet reports. "This is out-and-out economic bullying and will inevitably backfire," a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington told Reuters. "We urge the U.S. side to stop overstretching the concept of national security and abusing the state power to suppress Chinese companies. WHO’S IN THERE?: The European Parliament today asked members on its defense subcommittee to have their phones checked for spyware after it found traces of hacking on two devices, our own ANTOANETA ROUSSI reports. One member of the security and defense subcommittee went in for a routine check on Tuesday, which resulted in a discovery of traces of spyware on their phone. It wasn't immediately clear why they were targeted with hacking software, the member told our colleague. ICYMI — U.S. increasingly worried about Kremlin’s disinfo operations in Africa by Joseph     The Complex NO ARCADE GAME: The Biden administration is rolling out a series of actions to bolster cybersecurity at U.S. ports, including a new Coast Guard directive targeting a critical number of cranes manufactured in China over concerns Beijing could disrupt port operations, our own Joseph and MAGGIE MILLER report (for Pros!). The move reflects mounting concerns in Washington about threats posed by Beijing to U.S. ports, as well as the Biden administration’s broader efforts to combat Chinese groups targeting critical U.S. networks. The Coast Guard is issuing a maritime security directive that will impose cybersecurity requirements on port owners and operators using cranes made in China, which currently make up an estimated 80 percent of cranes at U.S. ports, many from Chinese state-owned company ZPMC. Officials said the China-made cranes have features that allow remote access and control — making them vulnerable to cyberattacks. “By design, these cranes may be controlled and programmed from remote locations,” Rear Adm. JAY VANN, commander at U.S. Coast Guard Cyber Command, told reporters ahead of the announcement today. “These features potentially leave PRC manufacturing cranes vulnerable to exploitation.” Chinese officials have denied claims that Chinese-made hardware at ports poses a threat, with one official reportedly calling it “complete paranoia.” On the Hill GOP ‘VACATION’: The White House ratcheted up its onslaught on House Republican leadership, criticizing them for going on “vacation” without approving funding for Ukraine and addressing the border, our own JENNIFER HABERKORN reports. “The damage House Republicans are actively causing to American national security mounts every day that they insist on continuing their two-week vacation,” spokesperson ANDREW BATES wrote in a memo to be released today and first obtained by Jennifer. The memo includes a “vacation reading packet” of potential threats if the funding is not approved, including Russia advancing on the Ukrainian battle line and a decline in American defense manufacturing. It also lists support from the Border Patrol Union and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for the Senate’s bipartisan border deal, which House Republicans rejected.   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     Broadsides WHO’S YOUR MONEY ON: Most Europeans support Ukraine in its war against Russia, but only 1 in 10 think Ukraine can win, according to a survey published today, as our own JOSHUA POSANER and GIOVANNA COI report. Researchers with the European Council on Foreign Relations said the pessimistic outlook is largely because of the political situation in the United States, where talks over a fresh aid package for Ukraine are at a deadlock in Congress and Trump is seeking a comeback based in part on a commitment to withdraw military aid for Kyiv. Most respondents see a “compromise settlement” as necessary to end the conflict, the poll found. SANCTIONS FOR NAVALNY: The U.K. sanctioned six men today who it accused of running the "brutal prison camp" where Navalny died, our own DAN BLOOM reports. Col. VADIM KONSTANTINOVICH KALININ, head of the "Polar Wolf" penal colony in the Arctic Circle, is the most senior to have any U.K. assets frozen and travel to Britain banned. It’s the latest step in the U.K.'s diplomatic offensive over the death of the opposition leader. The Foreign Office has also urged Russian authorities to release Navalny's body to his family "immediately." Transitions — SAMANTHA GILDEA is now association director of policy for the National Space Council. She’s also a USAF Air War College student. — BRYAN McNAMARA is now adviser to SARAH MORGENTHAU, the State Department’s special representative for commercial and business affairs. He most recently was chief of staff to New York State Assemblymember ALEX BORES. — ROB JOYCE, director of the NSA’s Cybersecurity Directorate, is stepping down at the end of March after almost three years in the role, the agency announced Tuesday evening. What to Read — MICHAEL HIRSH, POLITICO: Arab states are giving Palestinians the cold shoulder. Here’s why. — JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: J.D. Vance goes to Munich but refuses to learn anything new on Ukraine — DANIELA SCHWARZER, Project Syndicate: Will Europe ever get serious about defense? Tomorrow Today — Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, 9 a.m.: Assessing India's readiness to compete in global semiconductor value chains — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Is North Korea going to war? — Arab Center, 10 a.m.: The regional escalation of the Gaza war and the U.S. response — Foreign Policy, 10 a.m.: Promise over peril: a six part series on the realities and risks of generative AI — Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, noon: Yemen since the Arab Spring — Center for Strategic and International Studies' International Security Program, 1 p.m.: Ukraine in the balance: a battlefield update on the war in Ukraine Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who should have her entire salary cut. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, whom we entrust with all of our savings accounts. A message from Lockheed Martin: Make Any Point your Center of Command Lockheed Martin, guided by our 21st Century Security vision, is driving innovation to connect data points across domains to elevate the capabilities of crucial platforms, empowering customers to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn More.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward Matt Berg @mattberg33   Follow us

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