Early voting edge

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Feb 06, 2024 View in browser   By Nick Reisman With help from Irie Sentner Democrats account for a greater share of the absentee ballots that have so far come back district wide, but a Democratic lead in voting so far doesn’t necessarily translate to a clear lead for Democrat Tom Suozzi over his Republican-endorsed opponent Mazi Pilip. | Jason Beeferman/POLITICO The turnout challenge is starting early in the special election to replace George Santos. For now, Democrats appear to have an edge. Early voting numbers from the first three days show Democrats turning out in both Nassau County and Queens at a greater clip than Republicans as of Monday night. In Nassau County, 23,578 votes have been cast, with 10,160 coming from registered Democrats and 8,153 from Republicans. Voters not enrolled in a party have accounted for 4,404 votes. (the rest of the ballots include a scattering of Conservative and WFP voters). In the Queens portion of the seat, 2,086 Democrats have voted early in person compared to the Republicans’ 840 votes. Democrats also account for a greater share of the absentee ballots that have so far come back district wide: 5,672 compared to 2,672 for Republicans. Unenrolled voters account for 1,568 absentee ballots that have been returned. There are some clear caveats, and both parties like the numbers that have been rolling in ahead of next Tuesday's election. For starters, this isn’t a sporting event. A Democratic lead in voting so far doesn’t necessarily translate to a clear lead for Democrat Tom Suozzi over his Republican-endorsed opponent Mazi Pilip. “That doesn’t mean anything with the outcome of the election; it’s just better to be in this position than not,” New York Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs told Playbook. “We’re certainly not underestimating the poll operation by the Republicans, but frankly we’ve got a damn good poll operation ourselves.” In a costly race like this one, targeted turnout is key. Resources and money can be directed away from people who have voted and focused elsewhere in the final week. “The amount of money that’s been poured in, I get a piece of mail at least every other day. Phone calls, texts, the signs, the TV ads are all saturating,” Jacobs said. “Unless you reside in one of the several cemeteries in the district, you know there’s a special election on Feb. 13.” Democratic Party leaders in the district also know they need to make in-roads with voters in New Cassel and Westbury. And Democrats are nervously watching the turnout in Great Neck, a likely stronghold for Pilip’s campaign. Republicans, too, believe the initial days of early voting has been better than they expected. One Republican, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the campaign, said the early voting so far has been encouraging. And they expect to have higher turnout on their side today. “We think based on recent trends that independents break strongly for Republicans, and there is a healthy independent turnout,” the GOP operative said. “And the Republican vote is very healthy as well, in comparison to the Democrat turnout. Today actually in fact there have been more Republican and conservative turnout than Dems, in Nassau. So basically we’re feeling very comfortable and very confident.” From the Capitol Assemblymember Deborah Glick, chair of the Environmental Conservation committee, supports additional restrictions on toxic chemicals. | AP Photo TOXIC CHEMICAL BANS: Democratic lawmakers, environmental advocates and public health groups are pushing measures to limit a class of toxic chemicals, known as PFAS, in consumer products. A lobby day and press conference kicked off the push for additional restrictions in Albany today. The measures include a ban on PFAS, or per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances, in menstrual products (A5990/S3529); hundreds of consumer and household products from air fresheners to handbags (A3556/S5648); and personal hygiene and cosmetic products (A6969/S4265). The Senate has already passed the menstrual product measure. Assemblymember Deborah Glick, chair of the Environmental Conservation committee, supports the package. “If we don’t stop these products from being produced with PFAS chemicals, this will continue to be a vicious cycle,” said Assemblymember Ken Zebrowski, a Democrat from Rockland County. “We only have one choice here, which is to pass this entire package of bills and continue to build on it.” Groups are also pushing a bill sponsored by Sen. Rachel May, a Democrat from Syracuse, that would require companies to report discharges of PFAS into waterways (A3296/S227). “Keep it out of our bodies but keep it out of our waterways as well,” May said. The American Chemistry Council opposes the proposed bans, arguing the chemicals should not be regulated as a class and that the ones currently in use have undergone regulatory review. Lawmakers previously passed a measure banning intentionally added PFAS in apparel and carpets, which goes into effect in January 2025. A ban on PFAS in food packaging was effective starting in 2023. Firefighting foam with PFAS, which has proven to be a significant source of water contamination, has also been banned. But there wasn’t progress last year, and advocates hope to see lawmakers move these measures swiftly. — Marie J. French LEGISLATORS PITCH ‘SOCIAL HOUSING’: As Mayor Eric Adams and real estate interests push to revive a controversial housing tax break known as 421-a, left-leaning legislators are looking towards a different approach. Far from introducing a more restrictive or less generous version of the expired tax incentive, they want to cut private developers out of the equation entirely, via a new government entity termed the Social Housing Development Authority that would be charged with building new affordable housing. Lawmakers gathered with progressive activists and union leaders in Albany today to unveil the proposal, which they said could create 26,000 affordable homes built with union labor at an initial capital cost of $5 billion. “Whether it’s a new bridge, a subway station, a public school, the government doesn’t just hand over tax breaks to a private developer and hope for the best. Instead, we use the extraordinary powers of the state to finance, plan and get it built,” said Assemblymember Emily Gallagher, a lead sponsor of the legislation. Several elected officials including the housing chairs of both chambers, Assemblymember Linda Rosenthal and Sen. Brian Kavanagh, echoed Gallagher’s remarks. “We increasingly relied on a model where we gave for-profit property owners and for-profit developers very generous tax breaks to produce very modest amounts of affordability,” Kavanagh said. “We need to look forward to a new approach.” — Janaki Chadha FROM CITY HALL Mayor Eric Adams has a number of asks before the Legislature, several of which were included in the governor’s budget released last month. | Ed Reed/Mayoral Photography Office TIN CUP DAY: Adams received a relatively warm welcome today from Senate and Assembly lawmakers, who peppered him with hours of questions as part of his annual pilgrimage to outline his state legislative priorities at the Capitol. Adams has a number of asks before the Legislature, several of which were included in the governor’s budget released last month. Lawmakers seemed most supportive of his request for greater control over enforcement of illegal cannabis shops. “I would love to see you be right in being able to close all illegal cannabis shops in 30 days,” Sen. Liz Krueger said during the roughly three-hour hearing. “That would be a pretty amazing accomplishment.” Lawmakers appeared mostly curious about — but not hostile toward —the mayor’s desire to up the city’s borrowing capacity, which Adams said is necessary to complete several required capital projects including new jails and additional school space. Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins, however, tempered Adams’ expectations for splitting the city’s migrant costs with the state, which would require additional funds beyond the $2.4 billion earmarked in the governor’s spending proposal. “The mayor thinks there should be partnership [with the federal government],” she said in an interview. “I think as a state, we’re trying to find ways in assisting as the mayor and city deals with this. But I don’t think it’s a good idea to let the federal government off the hook.” And legislators seemed most skeptical about renewing mayoral control of the city’s public school system. “I ask this as a mom … why should we trust you with mayoral control?,” Assemblymember Jessica González-Rojas asked during the hearing. — Joe Anuta and Nick Reisman NYCHA BUST: Some 70 current and former New York City Housing Authority supervisors were charged in a widespread bribery scheme — that the public housing authority failed to stop by rejecting prior recommendations for reform, POLITICO reports. It was “classic pay-to-play,” Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District, said. “And this culture of corruption at NYCHA ends today.” Williams said it was the most people arrested for bribery on a single day in the history of the Justice Department. He alleged the superintendents and assistant superintendents would demand bribes and kickbacks from contractors looking for small-dollar contracts. The money exchanged totaled more than $2 million across 70 defendants, which means each person received an average of less than $29,000 in bribes. NYCHA had been repeatedly warned about corruption in the micro-purchase contract system, and the city’s Department of Investigation issued specific recommendations to reform the process. But those weren’t fully implemented. Despite that, no members of senior leadership of NYCHA have been accused of wrongdoing, and DOI said the authority has committed to implementing a new list of 14 recommendations to prevent corruption. — Jeff Coltin ON THE BEATS Assemblymember Jessica González-Rojas blasted Mayor Eric Adams over education budget cuts. | Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/AP MAYORAL CONTROL: Adams’ trek to the state Capitol included trying to convince state lawmakers to extend his authority over the New York City public school system. But he was met with skepticism. Legislators showed little enthusiasm for granting the mayor a four-year renewal at a joint hearing of the Assembly and the Senate, despite his insistence his administration has moved the needle on improving outcomes for students. He pointed to a new reading curriculum mandate and higher graduation rates. It comes amid growing calls from advocates and lawmakers to tweak or eliminate the system altogether. “I ask this as a mom, how can we trust you — why should we trust you with mayoral control?” Assemblymember Jessica González-Rojas charged in a tense moment in which she blasted the mayor over education budget cuts. Adams defended his record. “The decisions I’m making of outpacing the state in education, dyslexia screening, educational opportunities, keeping our schools safe,” he shot back. “If you have a lack of trust in the commitment that we’ve shown, I find that surprising.” Lawmakers have called for holding off on any decision until after the state Education Department completes its review, due to Hochul and the Legislature at the end of March. Stewart-Cousins appears to be on board with that approach. “I don’t believe that we’ve ever done mayoral control within the budget process,” she told reporters. “I’m perfectly happy to do it outside of the budget.” The mayor is also facing calls to comply with a costly state law mandating lower class sizes in schools. “I hope and expect it to be met,” said State Senator Robert Jackson, who co-sponsored the class size bill. Adams insisted he’ll obey the law, even as he and schools Chancellor David Banks say they need more money to meet the requirements in future years: “100 percent we’re gonna follow the law.” — Madina Touré and Nick Reisman  CHARTER HELP: Two Bronx Democrats are looking to help more than 27,000 New York City charter students who have been denied money for school facilities. Sen. Luis Sepúlveda and Assemblymember John Zaccaro Jr. unveiled legislation to ensure such pupils have equitable access to school funding. “Every public school student deserves to have their school facilities funded — but today, our laws lock tens of thousands of students out of the equitable funding they deserve,” Sepúlveda said in a statement. Under a 2014 law, many city charters can receive rental assistance if they do not receive co-located space. But the statute left out privately-located charters that reached capacity or established grades before the 2014-15 academic year. Students in affected schools get nearly $5,000 less per pupil than traditional public school students. Black and Latino kids attending independent or small network community charters are adversely impacted by the discrepancy. “Equitable facility funding is critical to ensuring all New York City students have the same opportunities to succeed in the classroom, and we urge Governor [Kathy] Hochul and the legislature to support this bill,” said James Merriman, CEO of the New York City Charter School Center, an independent nonprofit that helps new and existing charters, in a statement. — Madina Touré OFF THE RECORD: State Democrats in the Assembly and the Senate are pushing a bill that would immediately seal criminal records for most individuals aged 19 to 25 who are arrested in New York. The bill would also broaden the list of offenses that qualify for criminal record sealing. "We have learned a lot about adult youth and adult development and what happens to young people's brains, and our laws haven't caught up to what we now know,” said Assemblymember Daniel O’Donnell, who is sponsoring the bill. Currently, New York allows individuals up to 19 years of age to be eligible for “youth offender” status, which allows criminal records to be sealed and often offers alternatives to incarceration. The bill proposes immediately granting the status to individuals younger than 26 and expands the factors make armed felony offenders to be eligible for the status. The bill also would change the current law to make repeat offenders eligible for the status. “We’ve spent lots and lots of years and lots and lots of money just putting people away, and that doesn’t work,” O’Donnell said. — Jason Beeferman COUNCIL VOTES DOWN REZONING: The City Council’s land use committee shot down a modest housing proposal in Crown Heights today — after Council Member Crystal Hudson opposed the project since it was coming ahead of a planned neighborhood rezoning. The development site at 962 Pacific Street is located in an area along Atlantic Avenue that’s expected to be rezoned. That initiative is slated to begin public review later this year. “To maintain and protect the integrity of the process and to ensure that the [neighborhood rezoning plan] addresses the concerns of all affected stakeholders, we should not at the same time be considering individual piecemeal actions that do not take the same comprehensive approach,” said Council Member Rafael Salamanca, chair of the land use committee. Hudson argued the Council’s decision is “not a vote against housing” — noting the neighborhood-wide plan would make way for significant residential development. “In my view, it is much more effective to focus on an overall plan that is going to provide over 1,200 affordable homes, than allowing individual projects to spring up here and there in an uncoordinated, unplanned way,” Hudson said. — Janaki Chadha On the campaign trail Rep. Pat Ryan is running for a second term this fall in a competitive Hudson Valley House district. | Hans Pennink/AP Photo STANDING PAT: Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan wanted a border security bill to vote on. He likely isn’t going to get one. Ryan, in a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson and GOP House Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, ripped into the Republicans for declaring the Senate-negotiated border bill dead on arrival. “Your refusal to bring the national security supplemental to the floor is the most cynical and disappointing display of partisanship I’ve seen in my time in Congress,” the first-term lawmaker wrote in the letter. Ryan is running for a second term this fall in a competitive Hudson Valley House district. He’s the latest New York Democrat to embrace the border security legislation. Hochul has tried to pressure House Republicans from New York into embracing the legislation as well. But those pleas have been drowned out by Republicans denouncing the bill for not doing enough to address illegal entries into the U.S. Republican lawmakers have called for their preferred bill, known as HR 2, which Democrats oppose. “Lyin’ Pat Ryan now wants to blame others for his ownership over Biden’s Border Crisis, which is raging in New York,” Alex DeGrasse, a senior advisor to Stefanik, said. “He is spiraling out of control because he knows he’s about to get beat by former NYPD officer Alison Esposito at the ballot box in November.” — Nick Reisman AROUND NEW YORK — Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s lawyers sent a letter to U.S. Attorney General Merrick B. Garland asking his office to review what they called a “deeply flawed” investigation. (POLITICO Pro) — Nir Meir, a former executive at luxury developer HFZ Capital Group, was arrested in Miami on charges related to a multimillion-dollar fraud scheme. (New York Times) — Prosecutors in Suffolk County turned over nearly 3,000 police tips to alleged Gilgo Beach serial killer Rex A. Heuermann’s legal defense team. (Newsday)   Follow us on Twitter Joseph Spector @JoeSpectorNY   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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