New deck of wild cards

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Feb 14, 2024 View in browser   By Zi-Ann Lum and Kyle Duggan Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → BILL BLAIR is spending Valentine’s Day at NATO HQ likely talking about Trump’s threat to the alliance. → KING ABDULLAH II OF JORDAN comes to town and puts the spotlight on the government’s Middle East policy struggle. → Spotted: Cabinet’s quiet removal of Russia-related sanctions against four individuals. DRIVING THE DAY Trump allies argue his recent comment on NATO is being blown out of proportion. | Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images WILD THING — DONALD TRUMP’s latest threat to NATO reaffirms JOHN BOLTON’s belief that the former president genuinely wants to blow up the transatlantic alliance. “Look, I was there when he almost withdrew, and he’s not negotiating,” Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, tells POLITICO’s KELLY GARRITY in a Q&A. “His goal here is not to strengthen NATO, it’s to lay the groundwork to get out.” From POLITICO’s MERIDITH MCGRAW, LARA SELIGMAN, ALEXANDER WARD: Trump's backers downplay his ‘off the cuff’ NATO remarks. — New this morning: Canada announced C$60 million in new funding for the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group Air Force Capability Coalition to support F-16s. — Ottawa reacts: Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND chose her words carefully Tuesday, grafting together safe talking points in response to Trump’s eyebrow-raising warning to sic Russia on NATO spending laggards. “It's incredibly important to be clear in the world today — where we are seeing countries like Russia trampling all over international law — for all NATO allies to be very, very clear that that core principle of Article Five holds,” she said. “Canada is very clear on that.” — Let America America: “It's up to the American people to choose their leader,” Freeland said in response to a question about the prospect of a Trump 2.0 administration. “A core responsibility of any Canadian government is to work effectively and in pursuit and defense of the national interest with whoever the American people choose to lead them.” — PMO ‘extremely careful’: Wellington Advocacy’s ZITA ASTRAVAS was chief of staff to former national defence minister HARJIT SAJJAN when Trump was in office. She says there’s a time and place to call out language that crosses the line. The Prime Minister’s Office has built relationships with people in Trump’s orbit, she said. “They're extremely careful and every comment is calculated or response is calculated from their perspective.” Astravas, who built a reputation as a “fixer” in Trudeau’s office before leaving the Hill last year, said on domestic politics it’s a “deliberate calculation” when the government calls out “American-style politics” on issues such as gun control. Trump’s NATO comments could be used as an example for why the PMO has taken a more aggressive approach in deliberately calling out MAGA, she said. “You have to tread carefully, right? And I think that every time that there is a comment, they have weighed the benefits and the cons of actually mentioning whether it's an individual or an ideology.” — Say less: The prime minister, Freeland and National Defense Minister BILL BLAIR are all tight communicators, Astravas said. “And they work extremely closely and well as a team on these strategies.” — Trump 2.0 new work: Whatever close relations the PMO boasts it had with the Trump administration could have limited use should the former president return to the White House. BRIAN BOHUNICKY, Astravas’ predecessor as chief of staff to the national defence minister, said Sajjan had a good relationship with then-counterpart JIM MATTIS and the pair could talk about sensitive matters at any time. “But that kind of thing is going to be much more limited in a second Trump administration because he's unlikely to have people like Jim Mattis in his administration,” Bohunicky told Playbook. “He'll have a bunch of wildcards like himself around him in the administration.” In 2020, Mattis penned an extraordinary critique of Trump, describing him as a threat to the U.S. Constitution for making a “deliberate effort” in putting Americans against each other. Building relationships and striving to have a good rapport with Washington is part of any government’s job, sure, but Bohunicky said what Trudeau’s team should be doing now is to have quiet discussions with allies to plan for worse-case situations. “I agree with what DAVID MACNAUGHTON said recently about how the government should not be engaged in political rhetorical contests with American politics, Trump or anyone else,” the public policy consultant advised. — Multilateralism test: “If Trump were to become president, again, you would see significant change on the world stage,” he said, noting the potential quick advancement of talks about a multinational European Defence force. “And Canada will have to think through how to position itself, either in new alliances or in trying to maintain the integrity of NATO.” Trump’s NATO comments, Bohunicky said, should be taken very seriously. “Past experience has been [that] Trump actually does attempt to carry out a lot of the outlandish things he says. So it can't be dismissed as just rhetoric.” — In related news: PIERRE POILIEVRE's office told the Globe that a Conservative government would “restore” Canada’s military and “work towards meeting Canada’s NATO spending commitment.” — Today’s agenda: Blair is in Brussels today at NATO headquarters where Trump’s broadside is guaranteed to come up.   A message from Insurance Bureau of Canada: Canada needs to fund the National Flood Insurance Program now because flooding is Canada’s greatest climate threat. By launching the National Flood Insurance Program, the federal government can help protect the 1.5 million high-risk households that cannot obtain affordable flood insurance. And this can be done on a cost-neutral basis. Read more here.   For your radar NEW STRESS TEST — KING ABDULLAH II OF JORDAN is in Ottawa, fresh from Washington where he met with President JOE BIDEN to plot how to prevent a planned Rafah offensive and end Israel’s monthslong war in Gaza. Abdullah’s arrival will put pressure on the Trudeau government for more clarity on its Middle East policy, the latest significant issue to challenge the Liberals’ progressive credentials. — Data point: A new Angus Reid poll this week suggests Canadians’ sympathies on the Israel-Hamas war have shifted in the last four months with support for Israelis and Palestinians at “about equal” levels. — Pressure points: While in Washington, Abdullah advocated for continued funding for UNRWA, the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, as the humanitarian situation worsens in Gaza. “No other U.N. agency can do what UNRWA is doing in helping the people of Gaza through this humanitarian catastrophe,” the Jordanian king told reporters Monday. “Its work in other areas of operation — especially in Jordan, where 2.3 million are registered — is also vital.” Countries including the U.S. and Canada paused funding to the agency following allegations by Israel that 12 UNRWA staffers took part in Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel. International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN has not confirmed if he’s seen evidence proving the involvement of UNRWA staffers in the Oct. 7 attacks before making the decision to suspend Canada’s funding. Hussen told reporters Tuesday that he’s not going to prejudge the results of an independent review. “We were approached by the U.N. itself with these very serious, disturbing allegations, and the prudent thing to do is to pause and regroup and see what comes out of this important investigation.” Unions are calling on the government to reverse the decision. Where the leaders are — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa with plans to attend the Liberals’ caucus meeting and Question Period. He has a 4:30 p.m. with KING ABDULLAH II OF JORDAN at the top of their meeting. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Montreal for another round of pre-budget consultations, this time with “investors and business leaders.” — Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will hold a 11:30 a.m. press conference in West Block to urge the government to stop the Chalk River “near-surface disposal facility.” — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Ottawa with a caucus meeting at 9:30 a.m. and plans to attend Question Period in the afternoon. DULY NOTED Jordan's King Abdullah II, accompanied by President Joe Biden, right, pauses while speaking in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington on Feb. 12, 2024. | Andrew Harnik)/AP — KING ABDULLAH II OF JORDAN is arriving in Ottawa for his seventh official visit to Canada since 1999. — National Defense Minister BILL BLAIR is in Brussels for a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at NATO HQ. — Labor Minister SEAMUS O’REGAN will participate in a roundtable hosted by U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN with labor leaders, including Sen. HASSAN YUSSUFF. PAPER TRAIL MORE SANCTIONS DROPPED — Cabinet quietly removed sanctions against another four individuals, including OLGA AYZIMAN, the former wife of Russian billionaire MIKHAIL FRIDMAN. That’s according to several recent Orders in Council, with regulatory explanations expected to be published in today’s Canada Gazette. Not that the government ever explains why it delists someone beyond that they no longer meet the criteria. — Slow process: Ayziman, an interior designer who lives in Monaco and was struck off the UK and EU sanctions lists in fall of 2022, filed for delisting on Dec. 23, 2022, and filed in federal court Sept. 5, 2023 challenging the delay, decrying the financial hardship it’s imposed. Her children LAURA and KATIA FRIDMAN are fighting their own sanctions in federal court. Playbook has detailed each of their court applications already. — Sparse on details: The other three recently delisted do not appear to have filed in federal court, so their biographical details are not on the public record in Canada. But the names include former top Sberbank officials ALEXANDRA BURIKO and SERGEY MALTSEV, who both resigned after Russia launched its invasion, and ALEKSANDR DUSHKO, who at least at one point held a senior post at Gazprom. — Grand total: Playbook counts nine delistings over the past two years. — Compare/contrast: Ottawa has dished out upward of 2,200 sanctions since the war started, making the nine walk-backs a rounding error. But the fact that a sizable chunk of the individuals taking Ottawa to court over their sanctions listings are winding up off the list raises questions about the quality of some of the evidence and capacity of the sanctions team — not to mention, it’s embarrassing. The lack of transparency into the processes for issuing, and then removing them, makes answers hard to determine. Wealthy Russians have found ways around the regime. Ottawa closed a loophole in the fall that let individuals off the hook by changing their nationality, citing wily oligarchs coming up with “increasingly creative ways” of slipping free. — By the numbers: Ten days until the two-year anniversary of the war. Data from the past year suggests Canadian imports from Russia dropped 91 percent in value. Canadian exports to Russia fell by 79 percent. Trade in sanctioned products is essentially zero. Global Affairs Canada told Playbook it expects the long-term impacts on the Russian economy from the West’s concerted sanctions push to be “significant and cumulative.”   A message from Insurance Bureau of Canada:   MEDIA ROOM — POLITICO's ADAM WREN writes on Biden v. Trump: The battle over who’s too old, too forgetful or too confused. — The Toronto Star’s TONDA MACCHARLES reports on claims of “undemocratic” meddling surrounding the CPC’s nomination of KAREN STINTZ in Toronto’s Eglinton-Lawrence riding. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE wants the Mounties to expand their investigation of the ArriveCAN app. CBC News’ JOHN PAUL TASKER has the details. — MP JAMES BEZAN says Conservatives would renegotiate free trade deal with Ukraine, STEPHANIE TAYLOR reports for The Canadian Press.  — Real Talk's RYAN JESPERSEN spoke with Calgary Mayor JYOTI GONDEK, who is the target of a recall petition. — Sen. PAULA SIMONS talks cities and infrastructure with former Cabmin Hon. LISA RAITT, former Calgary Mayor NAHEED NENSHI and other experts. — Over on The Line, Enterprise Canada’s MITCH HEIMPEL writes on the auditor general’s damning ArrivaCAN report that should matter but probably won’t. PROZONE Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers by SUE ALLAN and ZI-ANN LUM: On credibility and Canada’s credit ratings. In other news for Pro readers: — Mexican ambassador says Trump tariff proposal would harm North America. — Biden's LNG pause scrambles the DC energy debate. — Forced labor still haunts China’s Xinjiang, report finds. — Hurry up and tax Google and Apple, EU urges the world. — Key vote on EU supply chain rules put off again. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to Conservative MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX, trying to plead the Fifth at the Senate national finance committee. His joke about U.S. constitutional rights was in reply to Sen. ROSA GALVEZ, who asked the watchdog: “Is Canada shifting to the transition to the low-carbon economy as fast as we should?” Depends who you ask, he dodged. Conservative MP ARNOLD VIERSEN announcing the weekend birth of his son, GIDEON MATEO … Little Victories announcing their new location at the corner of Bank and Queen streets. The Canada-United States Columbia River Treaty and the Line 5 pipeline coming up as topics in Foreign Affairs MÉLANIE JOLY and Secretary of State ANTHONY BLINKEN’s Tuesday bilat in Washington, according to a Canadian readout. Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON sharing a clip of former Newfoundland and Labrador Progressive Conservative Party leader CHES CROSBIE telling the House natural resources committee Monday: “I think that the theory that carbon output caused by humans is causing catastrophic climate change is bogus.” Crosbie also shared his opinion on the energy transition, calling it “a heavily government-subsidized program to cure a problem that doesn’t exist.” Alberta NDP energy critic NAGWAN AL-GUNEID and Saskatchewan NDP energy critic ALEANA YOUNG penned a joint statement to say they don’t support federal NDP MP CHARLIE ANGUS’ private member’s bill proposing to ban fossil fuel advertising. Movers and shakers: MANUELLE OUDAR, appointed to the Senate to represent Quebec … Halifax Mayor MIKE SAVAGE announcing he won’t run for reelection. The Progressive Senate Group has a new leadership team, effective Feb. 27, with Sen PIERRE DALPHOND elected as leader, Sen. JUDY WHITE will serve as deputy leader, Sen. AMINA GERBA will be caucus chair, and Sen. WANDA THOMAS BERNARD will be in as liaison. Farewells: Carleton’s School of Journalism and Communication is mourning the death of former professor VINCENT MOSCO. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.   A message from Insurance Bureau of Canada: DON’T BE FLOODED WITH REGRET – Roughly 10% of Canadian households are at high risk for flooding but lack access to flood insurance. Over the past few years, devastating floods in BC, Newfoundland and Labrador and, most recently, in Nova Scotia have massive financial and emotional consequences for residents in those regions. The federal government, to its credit, recognizes that a public-private solution is needed and, in 2023, Finance Canada committed seed funding to set up Canada’s first National Flood Insurance Program. But that is not enough. The program requires more than a pledge. It needs operational funding as part of the 2024 federal budget in order to be up and running before the next federal election. The good news? It can be run on a cost-neutral basis. Canadians have waited long enough. It is time to fund the National Flood Insurance Program. Read more here.   ON THE HILL → Find House committees here. → Keep track of Senate committees here. — It’s caucus day on the Hill. Noon. The Senate veterans affairs committee will meet to elect a chair and deputy chair. 12:30 p.m. Ski Day will begin on the Hill, an annual event to promote National Health and Fitness Day organized by Sen. MARTY DEACON. 2:30 p.m. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor RHYS R. MENDES will be at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, to participate in a panel discussion at the Lazaridis School of Business & Economics. 4:15 p.m. Bill C-34 will be up for study at the Senate banking, commerce and the economy committee. 4:30 p.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN and officials from her office will be at the House government operations committee to discuss her ArriveCan app report. 4:30 p.m. JIM BALSILLIE and PIERRE KARL PÉLADEAU will appear before the House industry committee.  4:30 p.m. The House veterans affairs committee will study the transition to civilian life. 4:30 p.m. The House citizenship and immigration committee is studying undocumented individuals or those with temporary status. Witnesses include officials from the department, Canada Border Services Agency, Amnesty International Canada and the International Centre for Human Rights. Behind closed doors: The House committee on Indigenous and northern affairs will be at work to fine tune two reports; the Senate audit and oversight committee will meet to discuss internal and external reviews. We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients. TRIVIA Tuesday’s answer: HOWARD MCCURDY was the first Black Canadian tenured professor. He helped found the Canadian Civil Liberties Association and the National Black Coalition of Canada. He was the first Black NDP MP. Props to ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MATT DELISLE, JIM CAMPBELL, MARCEL MARCOTTE, TIM MCCALLUM and BOB GORDON.  Wednesday’s question: This newspaper owner, publisher and columnist hosted The Quiet Corner, a radio show that ran for more than a decade in Atlantic Canada. Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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