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Nikki Haley’s long game

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Feb 20, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Charlie Mahtesian

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event in Greenville, S.C.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign event in Greenville, S.C. today. | Julia Nikhinson/AFP via Getty Images

EVENT HORIZON — Nikki Haley took to the stage today and put to rest any questions about her immediate plans. At an event in Greenville billed as a “state of the race” speech, the former governor said she is not dropping out of the Republican presidential primary and plans to stay in beyond Saturday’s contest in South Carolina.

“I’m not going anywhere,” she said.

It’s a tacit acknowledgment that the prospects for winning her home state primary aren’t very good. Otherwise, no one would be wondering if she plans to stick around.

In an era of nationalized politics, it’s not unusual anymore for presidential candidates to lose their home states in a primary — witness Marco Rubio, who got his clock cleaned by Donald Trump in Florida in 2016, or Elizabeth Warren, who finished a distant third in Massachusetts four years later. But losing in your backyard tends to be a sign that you’re not going to win the nomination.

In Haley’s case, however, that’s not really a problem. Because it isn’t about 2024 anymore. It may not even be about 2028.

Even if the architecture of her losses to date — and the steep polling deficit she currently faces in South Carolina — suggests there’s no path to defeating Trump, Haley still has much to gain from staying in a race that she conceded today was a David vs. Goliath battle.

There’s no question that there is a donor base and a modestly sized wing of the party that supports her cause — she continues to roll out endorsement lists in upcoming states that attest to that. Every sitting officeholder and activist who appears on those rosters — many of them women — is well aware that at this point in the campaign, Haley is the longest of longshots.

In a scenario in which Trump loses in November, Haley is sure to be viewed in a different light. And so is the wing of the party she leads. Her message will have been validated; the party would be coming off four successive election disappointments, all of which would be linked to Trump.

In the event of a Trump loss, the exit polls would likely tell a familiar story about how women voters and the suburbs rejected Trump — precisely the kinds of voters who like Haley.

It’s possible that by 2028, Trump’s grip on the party might not have loosened. And MAGA voters would likely remain unforgiving. But even if she remains an outcast, at 52 years old, Haley’s horizon extends well beyond 2028. She figures to be a national figure for more than a decade to come — if she ran for president in 2040, she’d still be younger than Trump when he was sworn in as president.

At the moment, it’s hard to envision a place for Haley in the GOP current iteration. But the party has a history of rewarding the tenacious, and for giving its failed presidential candidates a second chance, whether it’s Thomas Dewey, Richard Nixon, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, John McCain or Mitt Romney. Even Trump, another failed presidential candidate, is getting a second bite at the apple.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie.

 

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What'd I Miss?

— Judge threatens ex-Trump aide Navarro with contempt in records fight: A federal judge threatened today to hold former Trump White House adviser Peter Navarro in contempt of court for defying her order to return dozens — and perhaps hundreds — of presidential records to the National Archives. U.S. District Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly, an appointee of former President Bill Clinton, is giving Navarro until March 21 to review 600 records to determine whether additional government files are among them — or else face a potential contempt citation. She also said she plans to refer the matter to a magistrate judge to wade through the records and make sure the government gets those to which it is entitled.

— Dems face new divisions over Israel-Hamas war: The Israel-Hamas conflict is opening new rifts in the House Democratic caucus, with a second Congressional Progressive Caucus quitting the group over the war and Rep. Rashida Tlaib backing an activist campaign to undermine President Joe Biden in the Michigan Democratic primary. The new developments underscore that, more than four months in, Israel’s military operations in Gaza are still causing a painful rift within a Democratic Party that’s occasionally struggled to project both security-first and pro-humanitarian messages in the Middle East. It’s far from clear whether the enduring frustration with the Biden administration’s approach to the war — concentrated among progressives — will keep the party’s base sitting on its hands in November. But for the moment, Democrats aren’t done collectively wrestling with their approach.

— Two adults are charged with murder in the deadly shooting at Kansas City’s Super Bowl celebration: Missouri prosecutors said today that two men have been charged with murde r in last week’s shooting that killed one person and injured 22 others after the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl parade. Both adults are charged with second-degree murder and other charges. They have been hospitalized since the shooting, Jackson County prosecutor Jean Peters Baker said during a news conference.

Nightly Road to 2024

CASH CRUNCH — Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign is burning through its cash, spending more than it raised last month. The financial squeeze underscores the challenges for his independent bid as he continues to work on ballot access and is relying heavily on a super PAC working on his behalf.

Kennedy’s campaign committee spent more than $3.2 million in January while raising a bit shy of $2.7 million, according to a report filed by his campaign with the Federal Election Commission today. He had more than $4.8 million left in his campaign account as of the end of January.

BREAKING RANKS — Two prominent Democrats are openly acknowledging concerns about President Joe Biden’s age at a crucial time for their own political future. Former Rep. Tom Suozzi, just before winning a tight race in a special election in New York, stated on FOX 5, “the bottom line is, he’s old” and Rep. Katie Porter, ahead of the March 5 primary for the California Senate seat, embraced age limits for all elected officials.

This gap in the party armor on what was once a taboo subject could expand in the months leading up to November as Democrats try to distance themselves from an unpopular president or cast themselves as change agents in crowded races. “It’s a conversation that we should be thinking about,” Porter, who is still backing Biden, told POLITICO after broaching age limits during a televised debate.

MY KEVIN’S SUCCESSOR — Former President Donald Trump endorsed Kevin McCarthy’s chosen successor for his House seat today, giving Assemblymember Vince Fong a major advantage in a deep red Central Valley district. Fong, a Bakersfield Republican, has been the putative frontrunner in the contest, buoyed by his longstanding ties to McCarthy’s political operation. But his race had also become a referendum on anti-establishment sentiment among GOP voters, with his opponents positioning themselves as the true standard bearers of Trump’s party.

AROUND THE WORLD

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 16: U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the reported death of Alexei Navalny from the Roosevelt Room of the White House on February 16, 2024 in Washington, DC. Navalny, an anticorruption activist and critic of Russian President Vladimir V. Putin was reported by Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service to have died in a prison he was   recently transferred to in the Arctic Circle. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the reported death of Alexei Navalny from the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Feb. 16, 2024. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

‘MAJOR SANCTIONS’ — The Biden administration will unveil a “major sanctions package” targeted at Moscow on Friday in response to the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said today.

The sanctions will “hold Russia accountable for what happened to Mr. Navalny, and quite frankly, for all its actions over the course of this vicious and brutal war that has now raged on for two years,” Kirby told reporters during a call.

He wouldn’t provide more detail about the package when asked.

Speaking with reporters this afternoon, national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the sanctions will cover “a range of different elements of the Russian defense industrial base and sources of revenue for the Russian economy that power Russia’s war machine.”

Navalny, who was long seen as the most significant political opponent to Russian President Vladimir Putin, died in prison on Friday. The death of the 47-year-old, a month before Moscow’s presidential election, sent shockwaves around the world.

 

YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. 

 
 
Nightly Number

$42 billion

The amount of money that the Biden campaign raised in January, according to his political operation. The total includes funds from Biden’s campaign, the Democratic National Committee and two joint fundraising committees.

RADAR SWEEP

NOT ON MY ISLAND — On a tiny speck of an island in the English Channel called Alderney, with a population of around 2,000, there’s been a collision of forces surrounding a proposed renewable energy project that would require significant construction and development on the island. First, there’s a debate among many locals — who are interested in the project for the jobs it could create — and people with vacation homes in Alderney. Then, there’s a bigger question of Holocaust remembrance. A man named John Weigold insists that Alderney was a major site in the Holocaust, with tens of thousands of Holocaust victims in German camps. Historians and the British government generally refer to this as a baseless conspiracy theory, but some others believe it, and now it’s notably being used as a cudgel against building an energy pipeline on the island. Rebecca Panovka reports on the various considerations and characters surrounding the project for Harper’s Magazine.

Parting Image

On this date in 1964: The Friendship 7 capsule, containing astronaut John Glenn, is recovered from the Atlantic by the destroyer U.S.S. Noa after a successful space flight. The Friendship 7 was the first crewed American orbital spaceflight.

On this date in 1964: The Friendship 7 capsule, containing astronaut John Glenn, is recovered from the Atlantic by the destroyer U.S.S. Noa after a successful space flight. The Friendship 7 was the first crewed American orbital spaceflight. | AP

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