GREETINGS FROM RAINY BRUSSELS … where Global Playbook has been cheered by confirmation that the Belgian capital really does attract international heavy-hitters despite its gray skies, gnarled traffic and world-beating bureaucracy. I caught up this week with several attendees of the Munich Security Conference, who flew directly to Brussels after the gathering finished Sunday (more from them below). But first, (another) wake-up call: As the world prepares to mark the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, here’s another reminder, if needed, of what the West is up against: A week after the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in a remote Arctic prison, Spain says the Kremlin orchestrated the murder of a Russian defector who was found dead near Alicante this month. Full story here. MSC REDUX POST-MUNICH THERAPY: “It felt a little bit like a self support group, where we clap ourselves on the shoulder and say ‘we did good things, it could have been worse.’ I’ve got news — it still can get worse. When you hear what the Ukrainians are saying, the message is quite desperate.” These are the words of Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who shared his thoughts on this year’s Munich Security Conference with Playbook. (Here’s the official MSC debrief.) Landsbergis captured the mood at the conference: A dramatic turnaround from a year ago, when Ukraine seemed on the brink of a successful counter-offensive. KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy struck a relatively upbeat tone in his private talks with members of the U.S. delegation at Munich — a strategy that could reflect his efforts not to panic America as he tries to clinch the desperately needed aid package that remains stuck in Congress. Reality on the ground: But there’s no disguising the fact Kyiv is facing a grim reality. First, the news filtered out during the MSC of Ukraine’s retreat from Avdiivka, and reports that up to a thousand soldiers are unaccounted for. Then, Russia launched multiple attacks around the southern Ukrainian village of Robotyne, targeting land won back by Ukraine last year. Ukraine “is getting exhausted,” the country’s Ambassador to the European Union Vsevolod Chentsov conceded in Brussels Wednesday. But he insisted the country would keep fighting and needs continuing support from its allies. EVERYONE KNOWS WHAT THE SOLUTION IS: More weapons for Ukraine, particularly long-range cruise missiles. And Kyiv needs them now. One fear articulated in Munich is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is waiting until after his presidential “election” next month to send thousands of fresh troops to the front line. Recent upgrades in Russian software have also made it more difficult for Ukraine to shoot down Moscow’s drones, an official said. Call for action: “Right now, when it comes to artillery and ammunition, the Ukrainians are being outgunned. Ukraine is now feeling the consequences of our hesitation, the American hesitation to deliver aid, and the slow build-up of production capacity,” former NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen told Playbook this week in Brussels. “They need more munitions and longer-range weapons, to have a fair chance of actually winning this war.” Why the West is losing Ukraine: My colleague Nick Vinocur has this must-read, asking: How did the West, with its aircraft carriers and combined economic footprint approaching €60 trillion (dwarfing China, Iran and Russia combined) cede the initiative to a shrinking, post-Soviet country with the GDP of Spain, and end up in a defensive crouch flinching at the next affront from Putin? Ukraine’s goal for 2024: To hold on. This year will be one of “recovery and preparation on both sides, like 1916 and 1941-42 in the last world wars,” Marc Thys, Belgium’s former deputy defense chief, told my POLITICO colleagues. They asked analysts, serving officers and military experts to give their view on the course of the war, and have this excellent digest. LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba also repeated the argument that this was not just Ukraine’s, but Europe’s war. “When a citizen of Europe reads that Ukraine retreated from Avdiivka, he should realize one single fact: Russia has got a few kilometers closer to his own home.” QUESTION OF PERSPECTIVE: But other Munich attendees warned against being too gloomy. “There is a tendency to have only two modes: euphoria or depression,” a French official said, recalling the negative coverage about Moscow’s prospects, including in Russia, during Ukraine’s successful Kherson offensive. “Now we’re in ‘Ukraine is going to lose mode. But the current phase discounts the fragility factors in Russia.” VIEW FROM WASHINGTON STILL FIGHTING THE FIGHT: Playbook caught up with Gerry Connolly, a Democratic member of Congress for Virginia, who flew to Brussels this week straight from Munich with the rest of the U.S. delegation for the annual meeting of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly — effectively the legislative arm that brings together members of parliament from all Alliance countries. Exactly two years ago, the U.S. delegation was in Brussels for the same gathering when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. “We were pretty outspoken. We warned our colleagues that week about what was to come. There had already been a de-facto annexation,” Connolly said, recalling Putin’s order to move troops into Donetsk and Luhansk. “Then we woke to the news on the 24th. It was happening.” A shot of American positivity: “Let’s remember where we’ve come from. Kyiv didn’t fall in two weeks, as some thought. Ukraine, in partnership with the West, proved conventional wisdom wrong,” Connolly said, as two days of meetings wrapped up. He added: “Let’s not blow this now. This is a critical moment. We can’t let defeat seep into our thinking,” unsurprisingly urging Republicans to land the long-stalled aid package when the U.S. House reconvenes early next month. Trump-proofing NATO: “Connolly, who says he was asked multiple times at Munich about the possible return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, noted that Congress passed legislation in the Defense Authorization Act that prevents any U.S. president from withdrawing from NATO without its prior approval. But he conceded that the commander-in-chief still “has some powers” to chip away at NATO’s authority if they choose to. “The best thing we can do to ensure continued and sustainable American support for this alliance is to make sure that Trump doesn’t get elected,” Connolly said. NATO’s role: Playbook picked up some quiet mutterings about the level of NATO engagement in the war. Should NATO, as an institution, be doing more? “I think everyone could and should be doing more. If this can’t arouse Europe into action — war on the Continent — I don’t know what will. Having said that, I think NATO has forged a strong coalition, creating corridors for resupplies, or identifying equipment needs in different countries.” SPEAKING OF NATO: Outgoing Dutch PM Mark Rutte’s chances of becoming the Alliance’s next chief are rocketing up by the day. As Alex Ward, Paul McLeary and Stuart Lau report, Rutte has the backing of U.S. President Joe Biden, and two-thirds of NATO countries (including the U.K.) are on board. But in a last-minute twist, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis declared his interest in the job, throwing some east vs. west spice into proceedings.
Now read this — Can the 'Trump Whisperer' save NATO? That's the question my colleagues Eva Hartog and Stuart Lau ask in this profile of Rutte.
2 LONG YEARS
A SOMBER MILESTONE: As the world prepares to mark the two-year anniversary of Russia launching a full-scale invasion of its sovereign neighbor, here’s what to expect over the next few days. HAPPENING TODAY: A slew of foreign ministers, including Lithuania’s Landsbergis and Germany’s Annalena Baerbock, will join U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in New York today for a special session of the United Nations Security Council to mark the anniversary. Bottling it: The U.N. failed to get its act together and bring a resolution on Ukraine to the floor ahead of the anniversary. The reason? Fear that the overwhelming support for Ukraine on display two years ago — 141 voted in favor of a resolution slamming Russia’s invasion — would not be replicated. HAPPENING SATURDAY: Italy will host the first leaders’ summit under its presidency of the G7, with a scheduled video-call. Expect a joint statement, with an update on the controversial and legally complex issue of targeting Russian assets to help with the reconstruction of Ukraine. Big names attending: Zelenskyy will kick things off with an address to the group of leaders, Biden among them, Brussels Playbook reports. The Ukrainian will then drop off the call, to allow the G7 to huddle in private. This will be Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s first outing in the G7 presidency chair. Reminder: Italy is a laggard when it comes to providing military help to Ukraine, as per the Kiel Institute. Also happening Saturday: Expect several international senior players to make guest appearances in Ukraine this weekend. Among those rumored to be winging their way there is European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (who announced this week she is running for another five-year term in her top EU job). BRIGHT SPOT IN LATIN AMERICA SOME GOOD NEWS FOR A CHANGE: Central America has a new leader — and for once, everyone seems happy. Bernardo Arévalo won Guatemala’s presidential election in August in a shock landslide. It took him almost six months to be sworn in as he battled several attempts to derail the transfer of power, but he got there in the end, finally taking the oath of office on Jan. 15 — after some last-minute drama that delayed the ceremony by 10 hours. Whirlwind trip: Arévalo was in Munich last week for his first foreign trip since his inauguration, stopping off for a meeting in Paris with President Emmanuel Macron. He also traveled to Brussels, Geneva and finally Spain, where he’s being fêted in a state visit, welcomed by King Felipe Thursday. Weekend with Bernie: The academic-turned-politician got face-time with a slate of top figures at the Munich Security Conference, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the Netherlands’ Mark Rutte and U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas. (Guatemala is a major source of immigration to the United States, with Washington hoping that a more stable government may help stop the flows of migrants going north.) WINDS OF CHANGE: I caught up with Arévalo in Brussels, just after he signed a memorandum of understanding with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (who attended his January inauguration). His election victory came about because Guatemalan people “finally had enough of corruption,” Arévalo told me. “There is wide support in Guatemalan society to leave behind the corrupt past, make our national institutions work so that we can finally launch the kind of development we badly need in parts of the country,” he added. Background: The country of 18 million people has a grim record of graft, compounded by the presidency of Arévalo’s predecessor, Alejandro Giammattei, whose government dismantled democratic norms and infiltrated the state’s institutions of power. GETTING BY WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS: Arévalo said pressure from the international community was “critical in helping to combat the efforts to judicialize and persecute us in a bid to overturn the election results.” In particular he pointed to the election monitoring missions sent by the Organization of American States and the EU, which made it more difficult for authorities to dispute the result. Fire power: The U.S. also imposed sanctions, including on Giammattei, while the EU slapped sanctions on individuals including Attorney-General María Consuelo Porras and officials in the public prosecutor’s office (more on that here). “This combination of internal organization and international support was critical to prevent the government from crumbling over the electoral process,” Arévalo told me. EASIER SAID THAN DONE: The 65-year-old socialist, who is the son of former Guatemalan President Juan José Arévalo, accepts that reforming the system will be difficult. Among his priorities in meetings this week in Europe was securing inward investment — a hard sell for Western countries who need reassurance that Guatemala is cleaning up its act. New sheriff in town: In a sign that the new regime means business, the president this week fired Marco Molina, a Guatemalan official who has been leading talks for the past year on reforming the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement system — a move that surprised WTO diplomats, my colleague Doug Palmer reports. ZELENSKYY WATCH: Europe and the U.S. aren’t the only ones hoping the changing of the guard in Guatemala is good news for the notoriously volatile region. Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Arévalo at Munich, as the Ukrainian leader continues his outreach to non-Western countries. ISRAEL ANGLE: Another country likely taking an interest in Arévalo is Israel. Arévalo spent 10 years there, including when his father was ambassador. Given the sympathy in most Latin American countries for the plight of the Palestinians in the Middle East (highlighted most recently by Brazilian President Lula da Silva‘s incendiary comments), Israel may be hoping for a friendlier voice in the region. Speaking of Latin America: Argentina’s firebrand leader Javier Milei is due in Washington this weekend to attend the Conservative Political Action Conference — the gathering of Trump-loving conservatives which has previously embraced figures like Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Meloni. Let’s see if Milei’s speech shakes up the crowd like he did in Davos. SEEN AND HEARD BRRR: Spare a thought for Stéphane Dujarric, the intrepid spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres who was forced to don a green woolly scarf at the noon press briefing this week at the U.N.’s New York headquarters. Il fait froid: “I’m French and it’s cold — two reasons to wear a scarf,” Dujarric told the media. “This is what happens when there’s a liquidity crisis at the United Nations,” he joked from the podium. “In all seriousness, we’re trying to save money, and one of the ways we’re saving money is by lowering the temperature slightly.” Bravo! Let’s hope French sartorial standards at the U.N. won’t be sacrificed at the altar of energy efficiency. We all need a bit of glamor in these dark times. ROLL UP, ROLL UP: They’re selling like hot cakes, so make sure you bag a copy of “The Internationalists” by POLITICO’s Alex Ward. The inside story of how Biden’s foreign policy team sought to remake American foreign policy after Trump is out this week. One of the big takeaways? Biden’s not sorry about the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. IT’S 100 DAYS … until the European Parliament election. Citizens across the European Union will vote from June 6-9 to elect more than 700 members of the European Parliament. That election will also shape who gets the top jobs in the EU as Brussels prepares for its five-yearly changing of the guard. DON’T FORGET CHINA: Beijing’s not going anywhere, you know. Tensions with the West are continuing to bubble away, with EU problem child Viktor Orbán discussing security ties last week with China’s Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong. A new report out Thursday from the Royal United Services Institute and Chatham House urges the U.S. and Europe to up their game, noting a distinct lack of transatlantic cooperation when it comes to policy toward Beijing PROGRAMMING NOTE DATES FOR YOUR DIARY NEXT WEEK: TradeTech Forum, convened by World Economic Forum, February 27, Abu Dhabi … G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, São Paulo, February 28-29 … Address by Yulia Navalnaya, wife of murdered Russian opposition figure Navalny, to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, February 28. MARK YOUR DIARY: Global Playbook is gearing up for the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in April in D.C. Do get in touch with any news, tips, or invites —slynch@politico.eu. GLOBAL PLAYBOOK couldn’t happen without Global Playbook editor Zoya Sheftalovich. | 
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