| | | | |  | | By Brakkton Booker | With help from Ella Creamer, Rishika Dugyala, Jesse Naranjo and Teresa Wiltz
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An October ad from Virginia state Del. Nadarius Clark's campaign plays up his support for police training and retention — and an assault weapons ban. | Nadarius Clark for Delegate/Everytown for Gun Safety | What up, Recast family! Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley vows to remain in the race despite having no clear path in South Carolina this weekend — or beyond. Donald Trump says there are at least half a dozen hopefuls on his veep shortlist. First, though, we take a look at an issue that is largely seen as a losing issue for Democrats: crime. When it comes to crime, Republicans have gained the upper hand, successfully creating narratives that link voter perceptions about spiking crime rates to Democratic policies. To thwart that advantage, a pair of progressive groups is trying to snatch back that narrative. And they are trotting out new research they say proves that, with the right messaging, Democrats can regain leverage on the issue heading into critical elections this year. In a Recast exclusive, researchers with HIT Strategies and Vera Action shared their findings, which, they argue, prove that a strong, proactive narrative touting solutions to crime and safety is not just a winning strategy — it actually polls well with key voting blocs for Democrats: Black voters and younger voters. “The reason the Republican attacks on crime are so potent is because they're defining the Democrats’ stance before the Democrats get a chance to,'' says Ashley Aylward, research manager at HIT Strategies, a liberal-leaning public polling firm. Democrats, Aylward says, need to “stop avoiding the topic, especially when there are real winning messages out there.”
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Violent crime spiked during 2020, when the world was on lockdown and the nation experienced one of its most violent years. Since then, violent crime rates are dropping significantly, but a November Gallup poll found that most Americans still view the crime problem as “serious.”
|  | The researchers surveyed registered voters in Virginia following pivotal statewide elections there last November, where abortion and the economy were among the top issues. Virginia, according to researchers, is “probably the best bellwether we have” to test messages on how voters in key battleground states during the 2024 cycle may respond to certain issues. During that election cycle, Virginia Democrats campaigned hard on protecting reproductive rights and presented themselves as a bulwark against Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion ban, which allowed for some exceptions. As a result, the party seized control of both chambers of the Virginia legislature by flipping the House of Delegates and protecting their razor-thin majority in the Senate. Gun safety and crime were animating issues for Virginia voters, too. Among those surveyed, some 15 percent said crime influenced how they voted, while 17 percent listed gun safety as a major factor. Black voters were slightly more likely, at 18 percent, to say that crime was an influencing factor for casting a ballot, while a full quarter of Black respondents said gun safety was one of the main reasons why they voted. The researchers took it a step further. | 
| Survey respondents were shown three campaign ads, one by Republican Juan Pablo Segura, who narrowly lost to Democrat Russet Perry in a state Senate race in the Northern Virginia suburbs just outside of Washington, D.C. Another featured Democrat, Nadarius Clark, who won a House of Delegates race in Virginia’s Hampton Roads area over Republican Michael Dillender. The Segura and Clark ads were similar: Both prominently featured uniformed law enforcement officers standing shoulder to shoulder with their respective candidates in an implicit endorsement of a “tough-on-crime” approach. Researchers also showed respondents a mock ad by Vera Action, which advocates policy changes such as ending mass incarceration and other criminal justice reforms. “Democrats work to prevent crime before it happens, not just react after it happens,” an announcer intones. “Democrats are serious about safety and solutions.” The ad also included language about “breaking the cycle of crime.” Researchers tell The Recast the third ad, with its comprehensive approach to crime, scored far higher among all respondents than the tough-on-crime approach by a measure of 20 percentage points (60 percent favoring the comprehensive approach vs. 40 percent who favored the tough-on-crime tactic). When broken down by Black voters and by Gen Z voters, the gap expanded significantly. Black voters of all ages favored the comprehensive approach by more than 50 points (76 percent to 24 percent) while Gen Zers of all races saw a whopping 60 point advantage (80 percent to 20 percent) with that strategy.
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A still from the mock ad from Vera Action, which touted Democrats' concerns about safety and desire to find effective solutions to violence. | Vera Action | Even so, the tough-on-crime narrative is a sticky one, and if Democrats choose to ignore it, then it can become an albatross for their candidates, according to Insha Rahman, who serves as vice president for advocacy and partnerships at the Vera Institute of Justice. “We're watching Democrats, frankly, make the same mistake that they have made for many years about how they handled crime, which is to duck the ‘soft on crime attack’ and hope it goes away. It doesn't,” says Rahman, who also serves as director of Vera Action, a 501(c)(4) organization. Doubling down on the tough-on-crime narrative doesn’t work either, she adds. But if Democrats take a more nuanced “serious about safety [message], you actually have a fighting chance,” she says. There’s recent evidence to back this up, too, she says, pointing to the larger-than-expected victory in the New York special election to replace ousted Republican Rep. George Santos on New York’s Long Island. Rep. Tom Suozzi defeated a lesser-known candidate, Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip, and flipped New York’s 3rd Congressional District back to Democratic control. As my POLITICO colleagues Emily Ngo and Jeff Coltin pointed out last week: “The race featured themes Republicans have centered in their 2024 campaigns, including immigration and crime.” Suozzi’s victory underscores the fine line some Democrats will have to walk on this issue in 2024. He routinely staked out positions that put him at odds with some progressive Democrats, calling out members of his own party for their handling of the border crisis. On crime, Suozzi also sprinkled in policy ideas that progressives champion, including policing strategies that also include using social services to assist at-risk youth. We’ll keep tabs to see if other Democrats lean into this approach as the 2024 election season picks up in the sprint to November. All the best,
The Recast Team
| | | HALEY VOWS TO STAY IN PAST SOUTH CAROLINA
|  Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, a former South Carolina governor, waits to be introduced at a campaign rally Tuesday in Clemson. | Meg Kinnard/AP | Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley delivered what was billed as a “state of the race” speech just five days before voters in South Carolina cast ballots in the state’s GOP primary. Haley, who trails likely GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump by more than 25 points in the state, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, vowed to remain in the race “until the American people close the door.” She spoke in broad terms, at one point tearing up as she talked about her husband’s deployment, yet offered no clear pathway for how she could overcome such long odds. My POLITICO colleagues Natalie Allison and Lisa Kashinsky write of Haley’s Greenville remarks on Tuesday: “Without offering any electoral strategy for her path forward, Haley described her candidacy as a battle for something ‘bigger than myself.’” They add that Haley “is verging on a blowout loss in South Carolina” which would be embarrassing — given she was born in the Palmetto State and served two terms as governor from 2011 to 2017. Some of Haley’s donors, it turns out, also previously gave to President Joe Biden during the 2020 election cycle, according to POLITICO’s Jessica Piper and Zach Montellaro, including an eye-popping “roughly 1,600 who gave more than $500,000 in January alone,” according to the most recent Federal Election Commission report. This signals she may be drawing support from Democrats hoping to boost her candidacy. For his part, Trump seems unphased. In a town hall moderated by Laura Ingraham of Fox News on Tuesday evening, Trump was asked about the only contest that is competitive on the GOP side and where his vote is the only one that counts: the race to be his vice president. Ingraham asked Trump about a half-dozen contenders, including one my POLITICO colleague Alex Isenstadt said “would be surprising”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump and DeSantis vigorously attacked one another before the latter bowed out of the presidential nomination battle last month. Others in veepstakes running include: South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, biotech entrepreneur and former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii. Trump said “they are” all on his shortlist, declaring, “Honestly all of those people are good. They’re all good, they’re all solid.” Notably missing from said shortlist: Haley.
| | | ICYMI @ POLITICO
|  New York Rep. Ritchie Torres’ vocal support for the conservative Israeli government has put him at odds with other liberal lawmakers. | Mariam Zuhaib/AP Photo | Dems Divided over Israel-Hamas War — POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu and Daniella Diaz take note of the simmering tensions among House Democrats, with one prominent member, Rep. Ritchie Torres of New York, quietly quitting the Progressive Caucus over its treatment of the Israel-Hamas war. A Yawnfest? — Some Democrats on Capitol Hill are predicting the impeachment trial of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will be a nothingburger, according to POLITICO’s Ursula Perano, who writes: “Now that the House is done impeaching … some Senate Democrats are predicting that a snoozer will result from all the hype.” March Primary Showdowns — POLITICO’s Steven Shepard reports that while neither of the presidential contests are very suspenseful, that's not the case further down the ballot in next month’s primaries where the future of both political parties will be tested.
| | | | THE RECAST RECOMMENDS The Bob Marley biopic, “One Love,” traces two years of the reggae icon’s life, from his survival of an assassination attempt to his exile in London. It’s in cinemas now.
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| J.Lo drops her first album in a decade — with an accompanying autofictional musical movie. Rapper and “Abbott Elementary” star Vince Staples plays a version of himself in new Netflix sitcom “The Vince Staples Show,” which blends satire, surrealism and dark humor. A community seeks refuge in stories in Hwang Bo-reum’s heartwarming novel “Welcome to the Hyunam-dong Bookshop,” translated by Shanna Tan. Lupita Nyong'o stars in Brent Faiyaz’s music video — and fake action movie — “WY@,” Beyoncé’s “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” debuts at the top of the Billboard Hot Country Songs chart — a first for a Black woman. | 
| TikTok of the Week: Jolene x R’n’B
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