All eyes in the U.S. are already focused on November’s presidential election. But for global climate action, America’s vote is not the only one that matters. Countries home to nearly half the global population will choose leaders during the next year who could determine whether the world avoids increasingly dangerous levels of warming. That’s particularly true in countries with growing economies and populations, such as India, Indonesia and South Africa, as I outlined in a story today. Those three nations have seen their greenhouse gas emissions increase as they rely on coal — the world’s most polluting fuel — to meet growing demands for energy. While all three have indicated they support a transition to clean energy, they have also pursued nationalist agendas that have placed a priority on energy security over pollution reductions. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose government is doubling down on both coal and renewables, is expected to be reelected. In Indonesia, President Joko Widodo’s successor — who could be chosen as soon as next week — will probably continue Widodo’s energy and climate policies, which critics say contain loopholes that would prevent a coal phase-out and an end to deforestation and exploitative mining practices. South Africa’s governing party, meanwhile, could lose its majority after badly managing an ongoing power crisis — resulting in a coalition government that could have a harder time passing climate policies. Europe, a longtime climate leader, also faces a consequential parliamentary election in June that the European Council on Foreign Relations predicts will prompt a rightward shift. The continent has already been swept by an anti-green, populist backlash that has allowed hard-right politicians to gain ground in countries like the Netherlands, in part by courting voters who feel left behind by clean energy policies and inflation. Months later, the pivotal U.S. election could see the return of Donald Trump, who as president pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement and has vowed to expand oil and gas development. The outcome of the U.S. election hasn’t been lost on other countries. Those that depend on U.S. support to accelerate their own transitions fear that such aid (already in short supply) will dry up. Others worry that a climate-regressive America could give other laggards an excuse to do less. All of this comes at a crucial time for the planet. Temperatures have risen by 1.3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times, and scientists say emissions need to be slashed 43 percent in the next six years to keep the critical 1.5-degree threshold from being forever out of reach. The ability to hold back rising temperatures will depend largely on nations’ efforts to meet their already-sealed global agreements. The next batch of national carbon-cutting targets is due in 2025. “Every year from this moment on matters,” said Frances Colón, senior director for international climate policy at the Center for American Progress. “The climate isn't going to wait for us to resolve our political differences, at the domestic level in the U.S. or internationally.”
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