The ever-evolving Senate map

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Feb 09, 2024 View in browser   By Charlie Mahtesian Even if Larry Hogan fails to win, his candidacy can make a difference. | Steve Ruark/AP SENATE SHAKE UP — The fight for control of the Senate hasn’t drawn much notice recently against the spectacle of the presidential race and the limitless dysfunction of the GOP-controlled House. But today featured two important developments that could shape the Senate outcome in November. In Montana, Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale launched a Senate bid in a state that’s critical to GOP hopes of winning back the majority. It’s the last thing that many GOP leaders wanted to see. After several recent election cycles marked by squandered GOP pickup opportunities, Senate Republicans worked hard to avoid divisive primaries and box out hardline candidates like Rosendale. Rosendale is viewed by many as the latest in a line of unelectable statewide candidates doomed to crash and burn in November — in fact, he had already lost to Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in 2018. Many of those candidates were supported by Donald Trump. Yet within hours of Rosendale’s announcement, Donald Trump ruined the congressman’s launch by endorsing National Republican Senatorial Committee-backed Republican Tim Sheehy in the GOP primary. In Maryland, former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan also announced a Senate bid Friday — a great piece of news for the GOP, even if Hogan is a longtime critic of Trump. His entry into the open Senate race is no small event. It immediately ends the prospect that he might run for president on the No Labels third-party presidential ticket and also significantly alters the odds in Maryland’s open Senate race. The mere entry of the popular two-term governor led Crystal Ball election handicappers to change the rating from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat. “Hogan is one of the only Republicans in Maryland who can make this race competitive,” said Mileah Kromer, who directs the Goucher College Poll in Maryland. “With Trump on the ballot and McConnell and other social issues, he’s got significant baggage to deal with. But I would never discount someone who was a proven winner in Maryland.” Even if Hogan fails to win, his candidacy can make a difference. A competitive Senate contest in Maryland would widen the Senate map and potentially drain financial resources from other states where Democratic incumbents are imperiled by tough challenges. Democrats — who have a one-seat majority at the moment — were already confronting some grim math due to the particular contours of the 2024 Senate landscape. They must defend 23 seats in November — three in red states and five more in swing states — compared to just 11 for Republicans. Solidly blue Maryland was supposed to be a sure thing. It still might be — in an era marked by a decline in split-ticket voting and with Trump likely to lose the state by a landslide for the third time, Hogan will find it very hard to outrun the top of the ticket. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie.   CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.     What'd I Miss? — Senate Dems inflamed by Hur report: Senate Democrats say they aren't worried about fresh allegations that President Joe Biden's memory is failing. Instead, they're criticizing Special Counsel Robert Hur for what they're calling gratuitous attacks. Hur’s report, released publicly on Thursday, recommended no charges for Biden over his handling of classified documents but indicated a jury might perceive the president to be a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” The report by the Trump-appointed former U.S. attorney for Maryland said Biden had trouble remembering when his term as vice president started and ended and couldn't recall when his son, Beau, passed away. — Top DeSantis aides could be deposed as part of travel records lawsuit: Several current and former officials working for Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration and the state’s law enforcement agency could be questioned about a behind-the-scenes fight to keep the governor’s travel records from being turned over to The Washington Post. Court records in a lawsuit filed by the Post against the Florida Department of Law Enforcement show that lawyers representing the publication want to depose up to 10 people, including two former top staffers who were pushed out of the agency. — Biden order attaches human rights conditions to US military aid: A new directive by President Joe Biden appeared to ease a split among Democrats over his military support for Israel’s war in Gaza, with lawmakers on Friday praising the order authorizing a swift cutoff of military aid to countries that violate international protections of civilians. For Biden, the commitment to conditioning U.S. military aid for Israel and other allies and strategic partners will help him shore up support among center-left Senate Democrats for his proposed $95 billion supplemental assistance package, which is aimed primarily at military aid for Ukraine in its war with Russia and for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Democratic senators on Friday called Biden’s directive — meant to bring breadth, oversight, deadlines and teeth to efforts to ensure foreign governments don’t use U.S. military aid against civilians — historic. Nightly Road to 2024 DNC VS. RFK JR. — The Democratic National Committee is going after the push to get Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name on the ballot in more than a dozen states by alleging his allies’ latest efforts violate federal election law — a sign that Democrats are worried about the presence of the independent candidate in the 2024 race. The DNC officially filed a complaint against Kennedy with the Federal Election Commission on Friday claiming that American Values 2024 — the PAC supporting Kennedy — is illegally coordinating with his campaign to get him on additional state ballots. They say the $15 million the PAC is putting into a signature-gathering effort amounts to an in-kind contribution. AROUND THE WORLD Benjamin Netanyahu has previously warned that preparations were underway to expand Israel’s ongoing offensive into Rafah, on the border with Egypt where more than half of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have fled. | Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images ASSAULT PREPARATION — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered his military to prepare a plan to evacuate Rafah, despite repeated warnings from the U.S. and aid agencies that invading the overcrowded city would be a “disaster,” reports POLITICO Europe. Netanyahu has previously warned that preparations were underway to expand Israel’s ongoing offensive into Rafah, on the border with Egypt where more than half of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip have fled. In preparation of the assault, Israeli forces have ramped up their airstrikes and shelling on the southern Gaza metropolis. Nightly Number 42 million The estimated number of digital platform workers — those who perform services through a website or an app — in the EU by 2025, according to the European Commission. RADAR SWEEP AUDIOPHILE — The share of Americans who listen to podcasts has grown dramatically over the last decade. By 2023, 42 percent of Americans who are 12 and older said they listened to a podcast in the past month. Yet even with expansive growth in the number and variety of podcasts, no single topic makes up more than a quarter of the top-ranked podcasts in the U.S., according to the Pew Research Center. In an analysis of 451 shows, Pew found that true crime is the most common topic among top-ranked podcasts, accounting for 24 percent, followed by politics and government at 10 percent. You can read Pew’s “audio tour through America’s Top-Ranked Podcasts” here.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      Parting Words On this date in 1990: South Africa’s President FW de Klerk announces that he will release Nelson Mandela from prison. In response to the news, about 2,000 right wing extremists gathered in Pretoria to call for Mandela’s death and the overthrow of the government. | John Parkin/AP Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Mia McCarthy @Reporter_Mia   Follow us

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