The new normal: No big legislating in election years?

Presented by Kroger and Albertsons Companies: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead

Feb 16, 2024 View in browser   By Anthony Adragna and Daniella Diaz Presented by With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off this Monday for Presidents' Day but back in your inboxes on Tuesday. It’s not a good sign for further progress in the second half of a Congress that has already been historically unproductive, enacting just 38 laws to date — the fewest in decades. | Francis Chung/POLITICO 2024 FORECAST: MORE STALEMATES Getting laws through Congress during presidential election years has never been easy. Nowadays, lawmakers say it’s gotten close to impossible. Just listen to the Republicans acknowledging the political downside of policymaking this year in increasingly stark terms. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) caused a minor stir during a floor speech by saying a conservative influencer threatened to “destroy” him if his bipartisan border security deal passed this year, potentially helping President Joe Biden. Then there’s Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-Iowa) take on the $78 billion tax bill stalled in the Senate. As Grassley recently observed, enacting the House-passed legislation might make Biden “look good" and unduly boost the president’s reelection bid. It’s not a good sign for further progress in the second half of a Congress that has already been historically unproductive, enacting just 38 laws to date — the fewest in decades. Even that low tally is somewhat misleading: Many bills that this divided session passed did things like rename buildings or mint celebratory coins. Veteran legislators, particularly the frequent dealmakers on the Hill, swear they aren’t giving up on their core job of policymaking. But their efforts are clearly less successful as Donald Trump’s resurgence in the presidential race empowers him more actively to squash bipartisan efforts, like he did on Lankford’s border plan. Not to mention that the House GOP’s tiny majority makes simple messaging votes into risky missions that frequently go down in flames. Many members concede that simple legislative tasks have only gotten harder given election-year pressures – and Democrats openly blame the opposition party. “This is a fundamentally destructive new turn in our politics, that they are openly declaring that they want to deny President Biden and the country a policy breakthrough because it might harm them politically,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said in an interview. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.), who’s less of a progressive than Raskin, agreed that “it’s changed in the last few years.” The political motivations behind individual decisions, Kildee added, are “more acute. I think it's more transparently evident that Donald Trump is in charge of their conference over here.” Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), one of the few remaining old-school deans of the House GOP, conceded that lawmaking has gotten harder, especially given the high expectations of some of his colleagues who only control one half of one branch of the government. Cole added that he still believes “where you can work together, you should work together, and we can make incremental progress. That's a good thing. Not a bad thing.” Democrats and some Republicans are airing particular concern with Speaker Mike Johnson’s stewardship of the House, warning that Johnson is wrong to dismiss out-of-hand the Senate-passed foreign aid bill that Trump also vocally opposes. “It's a shame that we didn't even bother to socialize the bill that was taken up in the Senate,” said Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio). “Some questions that I have for the speaker: If we're a member-driven organization, how's that happening?” Of course, the current hand-wringing is lighter than the agita that took hold when then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell held a Supreme Court seat open until the 2016 election concluded. Even Democrats who lament that the GOP has bowed to Trump by killing the Senate’s bipartisan border plan are still open about wanting to make Republicans pay a political price for it. “The fact that Republicans are openly admitting that they're just trying to hurt Biden makes it hard for them to come off as sincere in their opposition to the underlying bill,” lead Democratic negotiator Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said in an interview. “They just want to use [the border] to hurt Joe Biden.” The inability to pass bills due to election season is taking a toll, many lawmakers say privately. Some members are citing a lack of productivity as they opt for retirement: 44 House members (and counting) and eight senators won’t return to the Capitol come 2025. “There are far too many games that go on,” Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.) said. “Because Trump says ‘let's not fix it yet. Because we don't want Biden to get credit.’ Well, that's not what we're here for.” — Anthony Adragna and Daniella Diaz   A message from Kroger and Albertsons Companies: Kroger’s success has always been rooted in delivering more for our customers - more choices, more value, more access to fresh food. Kroger joining together with Albertsons Cos. will allow us to do even more for customers by investing half a billion dollars to further lower prices and $1.3 billion to improve the customer experience. Any other alternative will lead to higher prices and less access for the communities who want and need it most.   GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Feb. 16, where we’re ready for the first joint recess week since the legislative year kicked off on Jan. 8. SPY VS. SPY The crash and burn of Speaker Mike Johnson’s second attempt to bring the reauthorization of a controversial wiretapping power to the floor has us wondering: Is there any situation that would allow the GOP to get a bill to the floor under a rule? Republicans we chatted up on both sides of the debate acknowledged that the answer could be no, given deep ideological divisions within the conference that have led Johnson to attempt and then abandon two very different plans to tackle the topic. “We can pass a bill under the rule, [but] can we pass the rule? … I think this little food fight, which is what terrifies me, gets us jammed on a clean reauth[orization] from the Senate,” Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), a member of the Judiciary Committee and the GOP whip team, told us. Not everyone is willing to concede yet. Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Ben Cline (R-Va.) both were skeptical this week that their Intelligence Committee colleagues would have actually followed through on their threat to tank the rule for debate on reauthorizing warrantless government surveillance. The two were part of a bipartisan group that released a statement to leadership, which we scooped earlier Friday, urging Johnson to move forward with a vote. They warned that “repeatedly punting legislation … is unproductive.” Negotiators feel like they were this close to actually getting a bill to the floor, meaning they are unlikely to try to cut bait just yet. Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) added to us that his focus is still getting his amendments considered as part of the wiretapping bill that leadership tried to pursue this time around. Reminder: Johnson’s spokesperson, in a tweet announcing this week’s decision to punt, said that the House would “consider the reform and reauthorization bill at a later date” to give lawmakers more time to reach a consensus. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), currently set to expire in April, is meant to target foreigners abroad but has faced criticism for its ability to sweep in Americans’ communications. While some lawmakers are still holding out hope that next week’s recess will help cool tensions, or force a concession by either the Intelligence or Judiciary Committee side of the impasse, other GOP lawmakers we spoke with are already eyeing other options. None of the potential alternatives are going to make the House GOP conference happy, which could help break the logjam. Here they are: Take the reauthorization up under suspension: This requires a bill to win a two-thirds majority of the House, effectively testing the bipartisan support for the competing options.  Attach it to something else: There’s already worries on the right and among progressives that leadership, or members of the Intelligence Committees, will try to get a reauthorization – whether long-term or a short-term extension, attached to next month’s government funding bill. After all, that’s one of the few bills set to move before mid-April. Lawmakers who want to reform the power are likely to hate this.  Let the Senate go first: As is nearly always the case, this is the House’s least favorite option.   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     THE GOOD NEWS-BAD NEWS UPDATE ON FUNDING TALKS The next (partial) shutdown deadline is exactly two weeks away, on March 1. But lawmakers will only have three days in session to finish things up, given next week’s recess. Here’s what we’re hearing from top appropriators in the runup to that fiscal cliff: The good news: For about half of the dozen funding bills, negotiations among top subcommittee appropriators are finished, according to Cole, who is vice chair of the full Appropriations Committee, head of its transportation and housing subpanel … and also Rules Committee chief. As usual, the toughest issues have been “kicked upstairs” for the top four appropriators to negotiate, before the absolute trickiest ones are pushed on to party leaders. It’s doable, albeit far from guaranteed, that the first tranche of four funding bills will be finalized before March 1 and that the remaining bills will be done by the March 8 deadline, Cole said. “You don't have better appropriators than Kay Granger, Rosa DeLauro, Patty Murray and Susan Collins. And they want a deal. So yeah, I think it's possible,” he reasoned, referring to the women who hold the top four spending committee gavels in Congress. Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho), chair of the Interior-Environment funding subpanel, said a few controversial policy “riders” are still unresolved for his bill. But he predicted that work will be done by the time lawmakers return from recess in a week and a half. "We'll come to an agreement before we get back, so we'll be ready to go,” Simpson said. The bad news: Reaching a final compromise on all 12 bills is only half the battle for lawmakers who want to avoid a shutdown or a stopgap spending patch that would trigger painful across-the-board cuts. “The hard part,” Cole said, “will then be putting together the coalition we need to pass it, because we have a lot of people who will be disappointed.” He added that having to line up a two-thirds majority of the House to pass the funding measures will be a major “problem area.” As we reported earlier this week, that’s going to almost certainly be required because House conservatives have the power to obstruct rules for floor debate on any bills they don’t like. Which leaves Johnson with only one choice: Taking up a funding deal under so-called suspension of the rules and relying on Democratic votes. — Jennifer Scholtes    A message from Kroger and Albertsons Companies:   HUDDLE HOTDISH We want this cap. Don’t miss this interview with Senate Chaplain Barry Black on the latest episode of The Elephant in the Room.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      QUICK LINKS  Witness Told Feds She Was Paid for Sex Parties With Matt Gaetz, from Roger Sollenberger at The Daily Beast TRANSITIONS  Mira Lezell has been promoted to staff director of the House subcommittee on highways and transit. She previously served as a senior professional staff member on the subcommittee, and before that worked in the Office of the Secretary of Transportation and in congressional offices. Senate Commerce ranking member Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is shaking up staff positions in his personal office. He hired a new deputy chief of staff, former State Department aide Victoria Ellington, who most recently worked on Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign. Omri Ceren, who has served as Cruz’s national security adviser since 2018, will take over as legislative director. Samara Brown becomes domestic policy adviser. MONDAY IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are out.   A message from Kroger and Albertsons Companies: Over the last 10 years, Kroger has grown its unionized workforce by over 100,000 members, making it one of America’s largest unionized workforces. Kroger has raised wages and increased benefits to respect and reward associates who fuel our success. Kroger’s merger with Albertsons Cos. will allow us to build on this track record by securing the long-term future of union jobs and further rewarding associates. That’s why Kroger has committed to invest $1 billion post-close to continue raising associate wages and providing comprehensive industry-leading benefits. If the merger is blocked, the non-union retailers like Walmart and Amazon will become even more powerful and unaccountable – and that’s bad for everyone.   MONDAY AROUND THE HILL Nothing. Enjoy the holiday! TRIVIA THURSDAY’S ANSWER: Stu Steinberg correctly answered that the only two states to reject the 18th amendment (Prohibition) were Connecticut and Rhode Island. TODAY’S QUESTION: Who is the only person to serve as Speaker of the House, Chair of the Ways and Means Committee and President of the United States? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.   Follow us

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