The warning signs in Trump’s South Carolina romp

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Feb 25, 2024 View in browser   By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza Presented by With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine DRIVING THE DAY EYES ON 2025 — “Beyond shock and awe: Inside Trump’s potential second-term agenda”: A wide range of our POLITICO colleagues have a thorough examination of how DONALD TRUMP’s return to the White House would blow the policy agenda from his first go-around out of the water. The topics include: “Banning abortions in red and blue states … Neutering climate science … Expanding trade fights against rivals — and allies … Waging classroom culture wars … Trying to kill the electric car … Neutering the federal election hacking watchdog … Bombing Mexico? … Deploying U.S. troops against Americans … Abandoning NATO … Loosening the reins on crypto.” Last night, Donald Trump made good on his campaign’s promise to not go after Nikki Haley anymore. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO SOUTH CAROLINA’S INK-BLOT TEST — Trump’s defeat of NIKKI HALEY in her home state of South Carolina wasn’t shocking or surprising. The AP declared Trump the winner just seconds after the polls officially closed at 7 p.m. If the current numbers hold, Trump will leave the state with about a 20-point win. There’s a lot to dig through in the results, but let’s start with this: Last night was a huge blow to Haley. South Carolinians know her well. She served two terms as governor and, in this campaign, outspent Trump here and spent weeks barnstorming the state. It was her best chance outside of New Hampshire to win a state. And she lost. Minutes after the race was called, the former president hit the stage — working to get out before Haley was able to declare the evening a success, as in New Hampshire. And surprisingly, Trump made good on his campaign’s promise to not go after Haley anymore — they’re trying to relegate her to gadfly status unworthy of the frontrunner’s attention — making only vague references to the fact that there is still an active primary, and looking ahead to his third nomination. “I just wish we could do it quicker,” Trump told the crowd in a hotel ballroom in Columbia. “I have never seen the Republican Party so unified as it is right now.” More from inside Trump’s victory party from our Meridith McGraw Is Trump right about that? True, Trump won nearly every single demographic group of Republicans — across age, gender and income. (He just barely lost college graduates.) The anti-Trump vote isn’t large enough to take the nomination away, and this is likely to be over soon. (Read WSJ’s Aaron Zitner and Jack Gillum on this point.) But there’s another way to see things. “If [President JOE] BIDEN was winning only 60 percent, people would be freaking out,” writes FiveThirtyEight’s G. Elliott Morris. And the numbers contain warning signs for the general election, as our colleagues report: “[A]ccording to AP VoteCast, a bit over 1 in 5 GOP primary voters said they would not vote for Trump in November if he was the party’s nominee.” (The NYT asked “nearly 40” Haley voters in SC what they’d do come November, and roughly half said they’d vote for Trump.) The results were a Rorschach test. For Trump’s backers, the numbers are a display of his dominance. For Haley’s supporters, the numbers are a show of her overperformance and ability to cobble together a coalition that a general-election operation would give an intern’s left arm for. At Haley’s election night party in Charleston, the sizable crowd seemed to be celebrating as if she had won. For them, just defying expectations and declaring their anti-Trump sentiment seemed to be enough. (We found multiple Democrats at Haley’s event who were giddy to cast their first anti-Trump vote of the election cycle.) The problem for Haley, of course, is that it isn’t enough, and the fundamentals of the primary have yet to change. When Haley eventually took the stage and got into the meat of her 15-minute speech, the crowd seemed a bit confused. At one point, whispers spread — Is she dropping out? — as Haley said that she has “always seen our state as a family. Families are honest with each other. They say the hard truths.” It sounded like the end of the road. “I’m an accountant. I know 40% is not 50%,” Haley said. “But I also know 40% is not some tiny group. There are huge numbers of voters in our Republican primaries who are saying they want an alternative.” For now, that not-tiny group is enough to sustain her, even if it’s nowhere near enough to get the nomination. WHAT’S NEXT: Over the next 10 days, 21 contests will be held. Currently, Haley has promised to go through Super Tuesday, which is March 5. By March 12, nearly 60% of GOP delegates will have been awarded. As our colleague Natalie Allison writes this morning, Haley is hitting the ground running: “She’ll make two stops each in Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia, while also stumping in Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, and Massachusetts, and the campaign is expected to announce events in more states. And Haley is continuing to aggressively raise money, planning to hold at least 10 fundraisers in those 10 days, according to a campaign official granted anonymity to speak freely.” Trump’s campaign is already looking past that. “There is no question that after Saturday there will be a pivot, because there needs to be,” a top adviser to the former president told NBC. “There is a mindset from our perspective that she [Haley] can do whatever she wants. She can do whatever, we don’t care.” Related read: “Some RNC Members Pushing Resolutions to Constrain Trump,” by The Dispatch’s David Drucker Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.   A message from Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel: Nippon Steel is one of the world’s leading steelmakers with nearly four decades of experience operating in the United States and currently employing over 600 American employees represented by the United Steelworkers. Together, Nippon Steel and U. S. Steel are focused on increasing the competitiveness of the American steel industry on the global stage, safeguarding American jobs, and delivering the highest quality products to American customers. Please read important information.   SUNDAY BEST … — National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on whether Ukraine can win militarily, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “Of course Ukraine can win. … And Ukraine can go further [than it has] in retaking territory that Russia has occupied, ensuring Russia fails and ensuring Ukraine prevails. But it can only do so if it has the tools that it needs.” — Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) on Ukraine and Trump-Russia questions, on “Fox News Sunday”: “We’ve given Ukraine over $100 billion so far in their endeavor to defeat Russia. But this is what the left does: They don’t want to talk about policy and Biden’s failed mission in Ukraine. They want to say that Republicans are pro-[VLADIMIR] PUTIN and pro-Russia, when nothing could be further from the truth. What we really are is pro-America: our citizens and our national security.” — California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM on Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, on “Meet the Press”: “He’s doubling down on stupid as it relates to the two-state solution and walking away from that. And I appreciate and applaud what the Biden administration did this week — Secretary [of State ANTONY] BLINKEN and others as it relates to the settlement in the West Bank. … Let’s work to get these hostages home. Let’s work to eliminate Hamas, and rebuild Gaza, and advance a two-state solution.” — Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH (D-Ill.) on her bill to protect access to in vitro fertilization, on ABC’s “This Week”: “It’s been crickets since the Alabama ruling, and let’s make it clear, Republicans will say whatever they need to say to try to cover themselves on this, but they’ve been clear, and Donald Trump has been the guy leading this effort to eliminate women’s reproductive rights and reproductive choice. … Not a single Republican has reached out to me on the bill.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces. “Does Biden Have to Cede the White Working Class to Trump?” by Thomas Edsall for NYT “The case of Clarence Thomas’s new clerk taints the entire judiciary,” by Ruth Marcus for WaPo “Basic Problems with Coverage of the Hur Report,” by Bob Bauer for Lawfare “The Americans Who Need Chaos,” by Derek Thompson for The Atlantic “The Supreme Court Is on the Verge of Criminalizing Homelessness,” by Nicholas Slayton for The New Republic “Why Republicans Are Making a Big Mistake on Biden’s Age,” by Alex Conant for POLITICO Mag “Ol’ Cranky and the State of the Union,” by Peggy Noonan for WSJ “The Right to a Private Life Is Under Attack,” by Sarah Jones for N.Y. Mag “California faces an uphill battle against plastic,” by Rebecca Fuoco, David Rosner and Gerald Markowitz for the L.A. Times “The Alabama IVF ruling uses faux scientific language to justify a religious position,” by David Sable for Stat News   A message from Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel: Nippon Steel and U. S. Steel will drive greater innovation, digitization, and decarbonization by increasing investment across the company and introducing new cutting-edge advanced production technology – benefitting customers across the entire U.S. supply chain, including the automotive and construction industries. Please read important information.   WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY At the White House Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.   PLAYBOOK READS Vivek Ramaswamy and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and tied atop a CPAC straw poll for who should be Donald Trump’s VP pick. | Francis Chung/POLITICO 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR 1. THE NEW GOP: Trump’s headlining speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference yesterday ranged from immigration to Israel to defending the Jan. 6 rioters. Using extreme, dehumanizing and baseless language, he attacked migrants as “killing our country, they’re killing our people, [and] we have no choice” but to engage in the “largest deportation in the history of our country.” The Biden campaign made sure to jump on various clips of those and other comments, Myah Ward notes. CNN’s Daniel Dale also runs down a list of a dozen familiar lies that Trump propagated in his speech. Elsewhere at CPAC, South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM and VIVEK RAMASWAMY tied atop a straw poll for who should be Trump’s VP pick, per Bloomberg. Support was spread broadly across a number of pols. NBC’s Ben Goggin reports that Nazis and other racists openly mixed with other attendees around the conference, with little pushback. And KELLYANNE CONWAY got a big surprise when Trump mentioned her name as a potential new leader of the RNC. 2. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The U.S. and other interlocutors in the Israel-Hamas war have made a bit more progress toward a deal with a new proposal that would include a six-week cease-fire and the release of 40 hostages held by Hamas, per Axios’ Barak Ravid. Sullivan said today that negotiators had reached “an understanding” on the framework for an agreement. The tightrope that CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS and others in Paris have to walk “is to produce an agreement convincing Hamas that a permanent cease-fire is eventually possible at the end of a humanitarian pause, while allowing Israel to avoid any such commitment,” WSJ’s Summer Said and Omar Abdel-Baqui report. Related reads: “U.S. and U.K. launch fourth round of airstrikes against Houthis in Yemen,” Axios … “Biden Caught in a Political Bind Over Israel Policy,” NYT 3. IMMIGRATION FILES: “In Arizona, Biden’s handling of immigration fuels frustration among key voters,” by WaPo’s Sabrina Rodríguez in Phoenix: “Interviews with dozens of Democratic and independent voters here — the kind of younger voters Biden will need to win over in a potential rematch against former president Donald Trump — reveal a deep frustration with the president for recently embracing tougher rhetoric and policies against illegal immigration while delivering what they view as little concrete action to improve the immigration system. Many voters said it felt unclear what message, if any, Biden or the party had on the issue.” 4. LOOK WHO’S BACK: MIKE PENCE may have been largely abandoned by the Republican Party’s MAGA base, but several of the top Trump VP contenders looking to fill his old role are turning to Pence for advice, Adam Wren reports. Noem, Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) and Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) among those whose “intermediaries” who’ve gotten in touch with Pence allies to ask about being vetted for veep. Though the secretive talks are early, their existence shows “just how politicians are competing but don’t want to be too obvious about their aspirations.” (A Noem spokesperson said this wasn’t true.)   A message from Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel: NIPPON STEEL & U. S. STEEL: INVESTING IN AMERICAN INDUSTRY TO BENEFIT ALL AMERICANS   5. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: “How Johnson wooed Trump to back a GOP congressman targeted by Gaetz,” by CNN’s Manu Raju and Melanie Zanona: “Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and his top lieutenants had a mission last week when they made a trek to Mar-a-Lago: Secure a Donald Trump endorsement for an incumbent House Republican over an insurgent primary rival boosted by Rep. MATT GAETZ. … Johnson lobbied Trump to back Republican Rep. MIKE BOST against his MAGA-aligned primary foe, DARREN BAILEY, in the southern Illinois district – a sign of how the new speaker is leveraging his relationship with the former president as internal GOP primary battles threaten to reshape the makeup of Congress.” 6. BIDEN’S DEMOCRACY AGENDA: “U.S. struggles for influence in West Africa as military juntas rise,” by WaPo’s Rachel Chason and Michael Birnbaum in Niamey, Niger: “U.S. officials are waging urgent diplomatic efforts in West Africa, searching during public tours and private meetings for ways to partner with military governments in a region where violence wrought by Islamic extremists is soaring and Russia’s influence is expanding. But the officials have struggled at times to articulate what that partnership would look like, especially since the types of assistance the U.S. government can legally provide has been curtailed after the ousting of democratically elected governments.” 7. SPY GAMES: Building on more than 200 interviews, NYT’s Adam Entous and Michael Schwirtz have a deep look at how the CIA has helped build Ukraine’s military intelligence capabilities over the past decade, a crucial element of its fight against Russia. This thoroughly embedded but tightly held partnership, revealed here in full for the first time, grew slowly despite some early American concerns and reticence. Long before Russia invaded in 2022, “a tight circle of Ukrainian intelligence officials assiduously courted the C.I.A. and gradually made themselves vital to the Americans.” 8. THE NEXT SCOTUS CONTROVERSY: CRYSTAL CLANTON has been hired as a law clerk for Justice CLARENCE THOMAS, despite an alleged history of sending racist messages, including that she hated Black people, NYT’s Abbie VanSickle reports. Clanton said she had no memory of sending them when The New Yorker unearthed them six years ago. But she’s close with Thomas, who has said she is not racist. Other judges who have hired her said they determined the accusation to be untrue and that she was a great clerk. 9. THE QUASI-ELECTORATE: “They Could Decide the 2024 Election. If They Vote,” by NYT Magazine’s Marcela Valdes: “Nonvoters aren’t starkly different from voters. In fact, in presidential elections, the most significant predictor of nonvoting is simply youth. Roughly 75 percent of nonvoters … pay at least some attention to politics. … They’re more like spectators who keep one eye on the score but choose not to join the game.”   PLAYBOOKERS Andy Kim won another county convention on his home turf. Gretchen Whitmer is pretty uninterested in ever being president. Beto O’Rourke backed the “uncommitted” primary challenge to Joe Biden in Michigan. Chris Christie is at Mets spring training. Donald Trump’s Waldorf Astoria successor is struggling. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Darren Soto (D-Fla.) … Mini Timmaraju … NBC’s Matt Dixon … Mona Charen … U.S. Chamber’s Andrew Burk … Bridgett Frey … Tom Nides … Tim Berry … Dan Riordan … NFL’s Jonathan Nabavi … Valerie Chicola … Anna Albert … POLITICO’s Joseph Gedeon … Charles Faulkner … Tyler Houlton … Greg Crist … former Reps. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), Bill Flores (R-Texas) (7-0) and Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.) (8-0) … Gina Kolata … Bob Schieffer … CNN’s Hadas Gold … Jack Burns Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.   A message from Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel: Nippon Steel will enhance the many strengths of U. S. Steel, including the company’s incredibly talented workforce which is central to its long-term success. 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Please read important information.     Follow us on Twitter Rachael Bade @rachaelmbade Eugene Daniels @EugeneDaniels2 Ryan Lizza @RyanLizza   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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