WILLKOMMEN to Day 3 of Global Playbook coming to you from the Munich Security Conference, which comes to a close this afternoon. The great and the good of the defense and political world are expected to depart around lunchtime after the final session finishes up. But first, some breaking news … TRANSATLANTIC ALLIANCE UNDER THREAT: It blossomed during the Normandy landings, flourished during the Cold War in the face of the Soviet threat, and even survived a Trump presidency. But the transatlantic alliance may have just reached breaking point. “Bloody Americans.” That was the refrain heard throughout the halls and corridors of the MSC Saturday as an army of American sedans, vans and legions of secret service security detail swarmed the vicinity of the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, blocking off entrances and jamming streets. Scenes of chaos: Even a blue badge offered no protection, as scores of American Congress members, staffers and hangers-on whisked through security, leaving generals, foreign ministers and even heads of state squashed in doorways, scrambling to make meetings. At one point, a 12-pack slab of bright-red Coca-Cola cans was carried by two young American staffers through the crush to the U.S. delegation rooms on the mezzanine floor, held aloft like a prized trophy after battle. All is forgiven: Eventually, things returned to normal, with things moving smoothly through the Bayerischer Hof and adjacent Rosewood hotel last night. UKRAINE’S FAREWELL PLEA ZELENSKYY MAKES HIS CASE: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leaves Munich after a full Saturday of meetings and speeches with little in the way of concrete promises. He invited Donald Trump to visit the front line, and made some careful comments on the stalled U.S. aid package for Ukraine, in a bid not to publicly call out Washington. But even as the Munich crowd reeled from the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in Russian custody, there was no big breakthrough. Still holding back: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz touted his country’s U-turn on defense spending in his conference speech on Saturday, urging other European allies to match Berlin’s contributions to Ukraine. But Germany is still holding out on sending Taurus cruise missiles to Zelenskyy’s army — a key Kyiv ask, as my colleague Josh Posaner reports. If only words were weapons: Scholz didn’t namecheck the laggards, but Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani found himself on the spot over Rome’s commitment to Ukraine at a press conference Saturday. As Jan Cienski reports, Italy has given just €666 million in arms since the war began, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker. Tajani, who hosted a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on Saturday, insisted that “to back Ukraine is not only to send weapons, it is to work on reconstruction.” Not what the Ukrainians want to hear. STOP WHINING: Meanwhile, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte had some advice to delegates worried about what Trump’s potential return might mean for Ukraine funding, Paul McLeary reports. “Stop whining, nagging and complaining about Trump,” Rutte told reporters. “We do not know who will be the next president. We have to do what is necessary not because he is talking about it, but because we want to do this.” Loose lips sink ships: Rutte was less candid about the story everyone here is talking about: whether he’ll be the next NATO chief. The Dutchman may have received some advice from an old hand: He was spotted deep in conversation with former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen just outside the Atrium on Friday. CHINA AT THE TABLE: Meanwhile, one of the most significant off-diary meetings this weekend was between Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi — an important moment given Kyiv's desire to have Beijing involved in any peace talks with Russia. Reminder: Zelenskyy had sought a meeting with senior Chinese officials during the World Economic Forum in Davos last month — but Beijing snubbed Kyiv, as POLITICO revealed. TAKING AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW: General Ben Hodges — the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe and an MSC regular — told POLITICO's Josh Posaner that there’s too much "defeatism” at this year's MSC. “I think that Russia actually is in worse shape than we think,” he said. AMERICA ALONE SPLENDID ISOLATIONISM: Trump may not have been present at this gathering, but one of his main acolytes, Ohio senator and “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance, made his first trip to Munich this week. Not for turning: The Republican senator told Playbook in an interview that part of the reason he came to Munich was to “try to understand what drives thinking here, as someone who disagrees with the consensus.” That didn’t extend to meeting with the Ukrainian delegation, though. Vance was not part of the bipartisan group who met with Zelenskyy late Saturday afternoon. He blamed “scheduling problems,” noting that he has met Ukrainian officials previously. Digging down: Vance, who has been one of the strongest voices in the U.S. Senate against funding for Ukraine, is sticking with his view that Washington needs to throw in the towel when it comes to Kyiv’s defense. Ukrainians are “admirable people fighting an admirable conflict,” but “there’s a real lack of strategic clarity about what we’re supposed to accomplish,” he said. Not our problem: “We simply do not have manufacturing capacity to support a ground war in Eastern Europe indefinitely. And I think it’s incumbent upon leaders to articulate this for their populations. How long is this expected to go on? How much is it expected to cost? And importantly, how are we actually supposed to produce the weapons necessary to support the Ukrainians.” No Navalny effect: Even Navalny’s death didn’t prompt a change of heart. “Look, he was obviously an extremely brave guy. It’s hard not to admire him, but I don’t think it really changes the underlying dynamics,” Vance said. “It’s obviously a tragic event. But you have to go into this clear eyed. Vladimir Putin is not a great human being but that doesn’t change what the strategic imperatives of the United States or Europe are.” White flag alert: Vance also dug down on his view that Ukraine will have to ultimately cede territory to Russia. “I think that any peace settlement is going to require some significant territorial concessions from Ukraine. You’re going to have a peace deal, because that’s the only way out of the conflict.” IN THE MINORITY: It’s safe to say Vance’s position has been pretty fringe in Munich, with most members of the U.S. delegation who made the pilgrimage across the Atlantic steadfast in their support for Ukraine. Cardinal view: “We must provide the aid to Ukraine. I don’t think there’s any other option. Without that aid, Ukraine is at risk,” U.S. Senator Ben Cardin told POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy on our Power Play podcast. “They cannot achieve what they need to defend themselves. We know that without this support, the circumstances will be different in regards to the battle in Ukraine.” Listen to the full podcast, which also features Celeste Wallander, assistant U.S. secretary of defense for international security affairs. VOICES FROM THE BAYERISCHER HOF PUTTING MIGRATION ON THE AGENDA: Playbook caught up with Amy Pope, the head of the International Organization for Migration, who is at her first MSC. The ex-deputy homeland security adviser to former U.S. President Barack Obama told Playbook that migration needs to be part of the conversation when it comes to security. Case in point: Sudan, which isn’t getting the attention Pope argues it should. “In Sudan, we have the highest displacement of any country in the world. People are being displaced within the country, and then being pushed into South Sudan and to Chad and Egypt. This is having a hugely destabilizing effect, not only on the impacted communities, but in the surrounding areas.” TECH-ING CENTER STAGE: As POLITICO reported earlier this week, Big Tech is out in force at the Munich Security Conference. Twenty top companies, including Microsoft, TikTok and X, announced a new tech accord to combat deceptive use of artificial intelligence in 2024 (as first revealed in this POLITICO scoop Tuesday). Word of the day: Pre-bunking. “Think of it as the more assertive cousin to debunking,” said Yasmin Green of Google’s Jigsaw unit, explaining a phrase that’s likely to enter the global lexicon in this bumper election year. “Pre-bunking is about building resilience to manipulation before it happens. You assume that, if there’s a false claim, you can just give someone the correction and they’ll update their belief. But it doesn’t often work that way.” Google launched a new campaign this weekend at Munich which will see anti-misinformation ads run across five European countries ahead of June’s EU parliamentary election. PLANNING FOR THE LONG TERM: Another initiative launched in Munich this weekend is the so-called Council on the Future, backed by heavy-hitters including MSC chief Christoph Heusgen, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and AI guru Geoffrey Hinton. The idea: To navigate the rapidly changing tech landscape and its impact on society, according to Eva Maydell, a member of the European Parliament who has spearheaded the project. “The world has changed, but we’re still using the same methods. We need a longer-term approach to ensure that we use technology for social good,” she told Playbook. GIVING PEACE A CHANCE: Mary Robinson, the chair of The Elders group of global leaders, shared her views on the MSC with Playbook: “It’s not necessarily about who gets on which panels, it’s about the conversations that happen on the sidelines,” she said, highlighting in particular the behind-the-scene talks that have been happening between key players and the Gulf states about a longer-term solution in the Middle East. Cease-fire call: “The position of The Elders for some time is that there needs to be a cease-fire,” Robinson said. “It’s the most important thing to allow the huge range of humanitarian aid that is needed into Gaza.” Israel’s response to the October 7 Hamas attacks was “disproportionate,” Robinson argued, and an offensive in Rafah is “a red line that should not be crossed.” PLAYBOOK AWARDS BEST OF MSC: Here are Global Playbook’s picks of the best of the Munich Security Conference. Best speech: Without a doubt Yulia Navalnaya, who took to the MSC stage moments after reports emerged of Alexei Navalny’s death, to deliver a raw, impassioned address, vowing that Putin and his cronies “will be punished for what they have done to our country, for what they have done to my family, for what they have done to my husband.” Best Stubbie: Volodymyr Zelenskyy knocked everyone out of the park with an Alexander Stubb post for the ages following his meeting with the incoming Finnish president. Best Bavarian meal: A classic combo of schnitzel, pork knuckle and a jug of beer at the Augustiner Klosterwirt restaurant near Marienplatz. Best cocktail: Munich Mule at the Bar Montez. Best snacks: Cheez-Its, popcorn and that reliable German Ritter Sport chocolate in the U.S. delegates’ lounge. Best name for a meeting place: Prince’s Parlor (aka the Fürsten Salon) on the second floor of the BH. SPOTTED — Former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi striding through the Bayerischer Hof wearing killer dove-gray suede stilettos. — Gregory Meeks, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, rocking a black hat and trench coat at the “Rebels with a cause: Voices of civil resistance” nightcap chaired by Hillary Clinton. — At the ACG-AGI breakfast: U.S. Senators Ben Cardin, Chris Murphy, Jeanne Shaheen and Pete Ricketts, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith, MSC chief Christoph Heusgen, German Ambassador to the U.S. Andreas Michaelis, German Bundestag members Norbert Röttgen and Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, CFR President Michael Froman, ECFR’s Jana Puglierin, Tagesspiegel’s Christoph von Marschall, Die Zeit’s Anna Sauerbrey, POLITICO’s Cristina Gonzalez, American Council on Germany President Steven Sokol, American-German Institute President Jeffrey Rathke, former German Ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber and former U.S. Ambassadors to Germany John Emerson and Robert Kimmitt. — At the “A Conversation with Michael Pompeo” dinner: Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian businessman Victor Pinchuk, Czech President Petr Pavel, Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, Republican Congressman Joe Wilson, POLITICO Europe editor-in-chief Jamil Anderlini, Welt editor-in-chief Jennifer Wilton, MSC’s Wolfgang Ischinger, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, Republican Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, U.K. Shadow Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs David Lammy, former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid. — At the EY drinks in the Rosewood Hotel: U.S. Representative Jason Crow, President of the Open Society Foundations Mark Malloch Brown, MSC’s Christoph Heusgen, President of Freedom House Michael Abramowitz, former U.K. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, Deputy U.S. National Security Adviser Anne Neuberger, Leslie Vinjamuri of Chatham House, Yalda Hakim of Sky News, Phil Bednarczyk of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Anja Manuel of the Aspen Security Group, Silverado’s Marc Raimondi, KKR’s Vance Serchuk, Tyson Barker of the U.S. State Department, Michael Birnbaum of the Washington Post, Nick Schifrin of PBS, Jasmine El-Gamal of Mindwork Strategies, Member of European Parliament Eva Maydell, POLITICO’s Alex Ward, Paul McLeary and Jan Cienski, Foreign Policy’s Jack Detsch. OVERHEARD IN THE CONFERENCE HALL: “German Greens are different than American Greens,” said a U.S. aide, explaining the nuances of European politics to his compatriot. AGENDA Full agenda. Livestream. Times in CET. — 9:30 a.m. Conversation on NATO’s northern front with Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and historian Mary Elise Sarotte. Dachgarten Lounge, Hotel Bayerischer Hof. — 9:30 a.m. “Figuring out relationship goals: The EU and its Partners” panel featuring Indian MP Priyanka Chaturvedi, U.K. Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy, German MP and co-chair of the Alliance 90/The Greens Ricarda Lang, U.S. Senator J.D. Vance. Conference Hall. — 9:30 a.m. “Peace in Pieces: Future of Israeli-Palestinian Relations” townhall. Opening interview with Palestinian PM Mohammad Shtayyeh. Features Minister of Foreign Affairs of Jordan Ayman Safadi, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, and Tzipi Livni, former leader of the opposition in the Israeli parliament. Komödie. — 10 a.m. Press briefing by President-elect of Finland Alexander Stubb. Salon I, Hotel Rosewood. — 10:30 a.m. Panel discussion on EU enlargement and reform featuring Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and French diplomat Emmanuel Bonne. Conference Hall. — 12:15 p.m. Panel discussion on “Looking sixty years ahead in geopolitics,” featuring Finland’s Alexander Stubb, Iceland’s Finance Minister Þórdís Kolbrún R. Gylfadóttir, South Africa’s Shadow Minister for International Relations Emma Louise Powell and Lynn Kuok, visiting professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service Georgetown University. Conference Hall. — 1 p.m. Closing remarks by Christoph Heusgen. Conference Hall. AND FINALLY SCHEDULING NOTE: And that’s a wrap from Global Playbook on the ground in Munich. We’ll be back in your inbox next Friday, Feb. 23 for some final thoughts and global interviews. Stay tuned. AND BE SURE TO JOIN US ON MONDAY: Tune in to POLITICO’s livestreamed Munich Security Conference debrief, featuring Jan Cienski, Joshua Posaner, Stuart Lau and me, on Monday at 11:30 a.m. CET. THANKS TO: The entire POLITICO team on the ground, including Jamil Anderlini, Cristina Gonzalez, Jan Cienski, Alex Ward, Laurens Cerulus, Anne McElvoy, Paul McLeary and Antoaneta Roussi. Global Playbook couldn’t happen without Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich. | 
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