Vanquishing the ghost of Prop 8

Presented by Rebuild SoCal Partnership: Inside the Golden State political arena

Feb 07, 2024 View in browser   By Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte Presented by People gathered in front of San Francisco City Hall in 2009 to protest Proposition 8, which banned same-sex marriage but was eventually overturned by the courts. | David Paul Morris/Getty Images THE BUZZ:  ICING ON THE CAKE — A ban on gay marriage was once such a wedge issue in California that in 2008 Republicans used it to energize conservative voter turnout. Now, Democrats are ready to turn the tables. LGBTQ leaders and Democratic strategists say they don’t just plan to repeal the zombie text of Proposition 8 from the California constitution this November. They aim to use the issue to boost Democratic voter engagement in races up and down the ballot, especially among young progressives — many of whom have been lukewarm about a second term for President Joe Biden. “They may feel some discontent about the top of the ticket, but really feel strongly about LGBTQ equality or abortion rights,” said Tony Hoang, president of Equality California. “We can use this as a tool to encourage them to turn out.” Groups behind the Prop 8 repeal effort plan to formally launch their campaign today. Voters are all but guaranteed to approve it — one recent poll from USC researchers found more than 73 percent of likely voters would support a repeal. Organizers, including Assemblymember Evan Low, have warned that same-sex marriage rights could be in jeopardy with the conservative majority on the Supreme Court after the justices overturned a long-standing federal right to an abortion. “Nothing should be taken for granted,” Low said. They're also leaning into the idea that the marriage debate will mobilize Democratic and independent voters amid a wave of anti-trans political rhetoric and legislation passed in Republican statehouses across the country. Organizers said their efforts could lift Democratic candidates in the state’s swing congressional races, which could help deliver a House majority. The ballot effort, titled the Freedom to Marry measure, is being led by Equality California, the Trans Latina Coalition and the Human Rights Campaign, a trifecta of the most powerful LGBTQ groups in the state. Other backers include the ACLU of Northern California and Planned Parenthood. Hoang said the campaign is especially focused on tight House races in Orange and Riverside counties, areas where Democrats believe that suburban voters are more inclined to support marriage equality. One such district is CA-41, a purple district straddling conservative parts of Riverside County and the deep-blue pockets of the Coachella Valley, home to the LGBTQ bastion of Palm Springs. Democratic challenger Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor who is gay, has blasted longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert over his past track record on LGBTQ-rights bills. It’s a rematch from the 2022 cycle, when Calvert beat Rollins by about four percentage points. Rollins said the repeal of Prop 8 will drive turnout among voters who are “motivated to push back against the culture war focus that’s become central to Calvert’s campaign.” He has criticized Calvert for his prior votes to oppose hate crime protections for gay people and prevent LGBTQ people from openly serving in the military. Calvert did, however, vote for the Respect for Marriage Act that Congress passed in late 2022 to federally recognize gay marriage and require states to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. He has called the emphasis on LGBTQ issues a distraction. “Those are settled issues in California. Those things aren’t going anywhere in a state like ours,” he said. “People want to talk about what’s important to them.” Christian Grose, a political science professor and the lead pollster on the USC survey, said his research suggests the issue could be a slight boost for Democrats. He noted that the poll found even 43 percent Republican voters support repealing Prop 8, along with 71 percent of independents and third party voters. “I could see that as a tool for Democrats to juice their turnout a little bit,” Grose said. “But, on the other hand, it’s so overwhelmingly supported that a lot of people that aren’t hardcore Democrats are going to vote for the amendment.” GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Now you can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced. A message from Rebuild SoCal Partnership: In The High Cost of Underinvestment the Rebuild SoCal Partnership assesses the state of infrastructure in Southern California and sheds light on infrastructure's interconnected regional challenges. Our aging systems demand immediate attention and action to ensure the well-being of our communities and sustain economic growth. Learn more and download the report at RebuildSoCal.org/2024Report.   CAMPAIGN YEAR Republican Rep. Ken Calvert. | Francis Chung/POLITICO FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: CALVERT PUNCHES ON CRIME — Speaking of CA-41, Calvert will debut his first TV ad of the cycle today, which paints Rollins as “soft on crime” and appeals to voters’ concerns about theft and smash-and-grabs in the Palm Springs area. The ad, which Calvert’s camp exclusively shared with Playbook, criticizes Rollins for supporting reduced mandatory minimum sentences for low-level drug offenders. It also hits Rollins for accepting the endorsement of groups that have supported ending cash bail in California, including the state Democratic Party and Equality California. Those attacks flash on the screen alongside creepy images of a hooded, knife-wielding man. It’s a bleak ad, complete with a horror-movie style soundtrack, that illustrates the central attack line of Calvert’s campaign as he tries to frame Rollins as far-left on safety issues. The ad says Rollins “is not just extreme” and calls his policies “dangerous.” Coby Eiss, Rollins’s campaign manager, hadn’t seen the ad, but he said Calvert is “terrified of the contrast” between the candidates on public-safety issues, noting Rollins’ career as an assistant U.S. attorney who prosecuted gangs and cartel members. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: PORTER PAC PLAY — With Rep. Katie Porter’s Senate bid coming down to her ability to finish second next month, a pro-Porter Super PAC is hoping a modest ad blitz will be just enough to push Porter into a showdown with Rep. Adam Schiff.  The $500,000 buy is targeting a specific galaxy in the California voter universe: Democratic women under the age of 55 in the Los Angeles media market who are active on digital and streaming platforms. That’s a sprinkle compared to the deluge of millions Porter and Schiff have raised. But Porter acolytes are hoping it’s enough to break an effective tie with Republican Steve Garvey — if polls are to be believed — and propel her into the general election. Here’s our colleague Jeremy B. White’s story on the gambit. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: RAMPING UP — EMILYs List today is endorsing Jessica Morse, Assemblymember Luz Rivas and Julie Lythcott-Haims in their bids for Congress. Morse, former deputy secretary at the California Natural Resources Agency, is running against Republican freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley in CA-03, which includes the Northeastern suburbs of Sacramento and much of the Sierra Nevada. Rivas, a North Hollywood legislator, is running to succeed retiring Rep. Tony Cárdenas in CA-29, and already snagged the congressmember’s endorsement. Palo Alto Council member Lythcott-Haims is among those vying for outgoing Rep. Anna Eshoo’s Silicon Valley seat in CA-16. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: BOOST FOR SALAS — House Majority PAC said it is pouring $850,000 into TV ads for Democrat Rudy Salas as voting begins in the March 5 primary race for CA-22. Salas is again trying to oust Republican Rep. David Valadao in the Bakersfield-area swing seat. But Salas must overcome a primary challenge from Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado to advance to the top-two November general election. The ad buy makes it clear that party organizers prefer Salas over Hurtado. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: NOT JOSHIN’ AROUND — Amid the increasingly caustic battle among Democrats for CA-47, Rep. Josh Harder is making his pick for the toss-up seat: activist Joanna Weiss. Weiss, who is running against state Sen. Dave Min for Rep. Katie Porter’s seat, is “the best candidate in this race to make sure Democrats win back the House majority,” Harder said in a statement rolled out by Weiss’s campaign Wednesday.   CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So, we have something cool for you: our California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now.     UNDER THE DOME Assemblymember Corey Jackson gives then-Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (center) a bear hug during a June 2023 Assembly session in Sacramento, Calif. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP OH, HAPPY DAY — Speaker Emeritus Anthony Rendon got the green light from his successor, Robert Rivas, for his Select Committee on Happiness and Public Policy Outcomes, Rendon's office told Playbook. He first told us about the committee last fall. Membership is still being worked out.   A message from Rebuild SoCal Partnership:   TOP TALKERS — Attorney General Rob Bonta hasn’t officially declared his candidacy for governor. But in the last seven months, the Democrat has brought in more money than the four major candidates who have opened campaign accounts for the 2026 governor’s race. (The San Francisco Chronicle) — Assemblymember Wendy Carillo says her drunken driving arrest last fall — when she crashed into two parked cars and had blood-alcohol level double the legal limit — was a “blessing in disguise” that helped her realize she had a drinking problem. She said she’s still running for the LA City Council because she’s a better person than before her DUI and shouldn’t be defined by her “worst moment.” (Los Angeles Times)   CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.     PLAYBOOKERS TRANSITIONS — Longtime SEIU president Mary Kay Henry announced Tuesday she will not seek reelection to the top position at the second-largest public-sector union in the country. Newsom praised her leadership in a statement, saying “we are forever grateful for her tireless efforts to empower and improve working people’s lives.” CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. A message from Rebuild SoCal Partnership: Southern California's infrastructure influences economic growth, health, safety, and overall quality of life. Yet, disinvestment, aging, and extreme conditions challenge its resilience, impacting communities inequitably. It’s time to invest robust funding into future infrastructure development and maintenance. Download Rebuild SoCal’s 2024 Infrastructure Report Today! About Rebuild SoCal Partnership The Rebuild SoCal Partnership consists of 2,750 contractors throughout Southern California that represent more than 90,000 union workers. Rebuild is dedicated to working with elected officials and educating the public on the continued need for essential infrastructure funding, including airports, bridges, ports, rail, roads, and water projects.     Follow us on Twitter Dustin Gardiner @dustingardiner Lara Korte @lara_korte POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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