| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Connor O’Brien and Lara Seligman | |  “Will Ukrainians survive without Congress’ support? Of course, but not all of us,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a Fox News interview that aired Thursday night. | Mads Claus Rasmussen/Ritzau Scanpix via AP | With help from Alex Ward, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt As the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches, VLADIMIR PUTIN appears increasingly confident in his country’s ability to win the war, while VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY desperately holds out hope that the U.S. will come to the rescue. For Moscow, the last month has seen a string of successes, and not only on the battlefield. To name a few: the death of Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY; the taking of Avdiivka; persistent airstrikes on Ukraine, including with a hypersonic missile; remarks from DONALD TRUMP that he’d encourage Russia to attack NATO allies who don’t meet spending goals; an unprecedented flow of cash bolstered by oil sales. One might even say Vlad’s getting cocky. On Thursday, he flew on a nuclear-capable strategic bomber — what observers saw as a reminder to the West that the Kremlin still has a finger on nukes. Today, Putin said nearly all of Mocow’s strategic nuclear forces have been modernized. The atmosphere in Zelenskyy’s office, meanwhile, has been “quite grim, and frustration was palpable” in recent weeks, a person close to Zelenskyy’s office told NatSec Daily. Zelenskyy delivered an ominous message during an interview with Fox News’ BRET BAIER aired Thursday night: “Will Ukrainians survive without Congress’ support? Of course, but not all of us.” The vibe in Congress is also gloomy: "There's not a Plan B," Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) said in a call with reporters Thursday, warning that Ukraine could lose the war if Congress doesn’t continue funding Kyiv’s war efforts — echoing a sentiment Vice President KAMALA HARRIS expressed in Munich. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER will push the same message as he leads a group of Democratic senators to meet with Zelenskyy in Kyiv. When they return to Washington, the lawmakers will explain to House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and others obstructing military and economic support to Ukraine “what is at stake here in Ukraine and for the rest of Europe and the free world," Schumer said in a statement this morning announcing the trip. It’s life or death for Ukrainian soldiers, who are already running out of artillery ammunition on the frontlines. Without additional U.S. weapons, Ukraine will be able to fend off troops for sometime — but “will likely begin to lose the war,” MICHAEL KOFMAN, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, told NatSec Daily. If the supplemental passes soon, Ukraine could “at least hold until 2025, and exhaust Russian forces at the peak of Russian defense spending,” Kofman said. “The course of this war is going to be determined by the decisions we make this year.” The Biden administration is pulling what levers it can while awaiting action from Congress. Today, President JOE BIDEN announced more than 500 new sanctions on Russia and its war machine — the largest tranche of penalties since the war began — which have been long in the works to mark the anniversary. The U.S. hopes that those sanctions will weaken the Kremlin's economy, defense industrial base and procurement networks and sanctions evaders across multiple continents, though Moscow has evaded past penalties. Generally, Zelenskyy’s office is still hopeful that the U.S. will push through funding to bolster Ukraine’s war efforts in the near term. “Almost everyone is convinced that the aid will come soon,” the person close to Zelenskyy’s office said. “While the president's office is waiting for good news from the U.S., it is also working to improve mobilization and war planning. The goal is to be prepared to use the aid effectively once it arrives.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn More. | | | | | SURVIVAL GAME: To assess prospects of Ukraine’s year ahead, our colleagues asked analysts, serving officers and military experts to give their view on the course of the war. Nobody could provide a precise roadmap for 2024, but all agreed that three fundamentals will determine the trajectory of the coming months:
- First, this spring is about managing expectations as Ukraine won't have the gear or the personnel to launch a significant counteroffensive.
- Second, Russia, with the help of its allies, has secured artillery superiority and, together with relentless ground attacks, is pounding Ukrainian positions.
- Third, without Western air defense and long-range missiles as well as artillery shells, Kyiv will struggle to mount a credible, sustained defense.
"The year will be difficult, no one can predict from which direction Russia will go or whether we will advance this year," said TARAS CHMUT, a Ukrainian military analyst and sergeant with the Naval Forces Marine Corps Reserve. Read: Hungary blocks EU leaders’ statement pledging support for Ukraine by our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI NAVALNY SANCTIONS: The State Department sanctioned three individuals in connection with Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY’s death at the Siberian penal colony: the prison warden, the regional prison head and the deputy director of Russia’s federal prison service. “Today was just the start” of the U.S. punishing Russia for Navalny’s death, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters on a call today. BIBI’S POST-GAZA PLAN: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU released his most detailed vision yet for a post-war Gaza today, which includes keeping indefinite military control over the territory while letting Gazans who don’t have ties to Hamas govern. If the plan were to go through, it “would make it almost impossible to establish a contiguous Palestinian state in Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank, at least in the short term,” The New York Times’ PATRICK KINGSLEY reports. It would also certainly cause more clashes between Israel and the United States, as well as numerous other countries who have called for a two-state solution following the war. Netanyahu released his plan as Israeli, Qatari, U.S. and Egyptian officials met in Paris to discuss negotiations for a cease-fire deal and hostage release. Israeli officials have said they’re open to a deal to pause fighting and release hostages, but they’ve been reluctant to agree to a permanent cease-fire, which Hamas wants. Read: British MPs fear for their safety as Gaza tensions flare by our own ESTHER WEBBER TROUBLE IN SUDAN: Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces militia have been kidnapping civilians for ransom or pushing them into forced servitude, victims and witnesses told The Washington Post’s KATHARINE HOURELD and HAFIZ HAROUN. Some civilians have been sold to work on commanders’ farms, while others were held for ransom or chained, bound and sold as sex slaves, the people said. The abductions have been a lucrative source of revenue for the militia, which has taken most of the country’s capital and expanded across most of the western region of Darfur as it continues a bloody civil war with Sudan’s army. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, NatSec Daily is featuring Rep. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.), a member of the House Armed Services and China committees. When she’s not thinking about national security, you can find the lawmaker enjoying red wine at The Highlawn, one of her favorite spots in Essex County. Sherrill said she has her favorite varietals, but after a long day — or a long trip, such as to the Munich Security Conference — a simple glass of vino does the job. Cheers, Rep. Sherrill! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | STANDING INVITATION: Zelenskyy reupped his calls for DONALD TRUMP to visit Ukraine, saying he wants the former president to join him on the frontlines and see the impact on civilians. “If Mr. Trump, if he will come, I am ready to go with him to the frontline,” Zelenskyy told Fox News on Thursday. “I’m happy to see all the people who are decision-makers … just to understand what the war in Ukraine means.” When asked about Trump’s claim that he could end the war within a day if elected president, Zelenskyy said a visit to Ukraine would likely change that. “Maybe he has some ideas, I don’t know. But he will see what’s going on, and after that I think he will change his mind and understand that there are not two sides of this war,” Zelenskyy said.
| | AI SMOKESCREEN: A pair of well-funded nonprofits lobbying Washington are warning that the rise of AI could be apocalyptic, but critics think it’s an effort to head off regulation and competition, our own BRENDAN BORDELON reports. The nonprofits — Center for AI Policy and Center for AI Safety — registered their first lobbyists late last year. Each organization, funded by tech billionaires, has spent close to $100,000 on lobbying in the last three months of the year. Detractors see the whole enterprise as a diversion. By focusing on doomsday scenarios, they claim, these groups raise barriers to entry for smaller AI firms and shift attention away from more immediate and concrete problems with the tech, such as its potential to eliminate jobs or perpetuate discrimination.
| | | |   | | | | | HOW SWEDE: After months of delay, Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN today backed Sweden’s bid to join NATO after the two nations agreed to a deal for Hungary to buy more Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets. As our own STUART LAU reports, the deal was struck during a visit to Budapest by Swedish Prime Minister ULF KRISTERSSON, a concession by the Swedish leader who had vowed not to visit the Hungarian capital until after Sweden joined NATO. The Hungarian Parliament is set to ratify Sweden’s membership in NATO early next week, lifting the final blockade to Sweden joining the international alliance. "A deal on defense and military capacities helps to reconstruct the trust between the two countries,” Orbán said during a joint press conference with Kristersson. Under the new defense deal between the nations, Hungary will be allowed to purchase four new Gripen aircraft and receive support for its existing fleet. REPLICATOR TALKS: Pentagon officials have briefed lawmakers and their staff multiple times over the past few months on its initiative to build thousands of low-cost drones, known as Replicator, our own LEE HUDSON reports (for Pros!). That follows criticism from a congressional aide, who told Lee that the Pentagon’s communication about the initiative has been lackluster. Read: France plants flag in Russia’s backyard with Armenia arms deals by our own LAURA KAYALI and GABRIEL GAVIN
| | WEAPONS TRANSFER CONCERNS: A pair of Democratic senators are pressing Biden to secure a series of assurances on Israel's conduct of the war in Gaza before it transfers more weapons to Netanyahu's government — including halting plans for a major military operation in Rafah, Connor and Alex report (for Pros!). Sens. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.), BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii), BEN RAY LUJAN (D-N.M.) and MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.) warned of the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, arguing in a letter that the crisis will only get worse if Israel launches a full military campaign in the city. The pair said they support providing defensive weapons to Israel, such as replenishing the Iron Dome air defense system, but expressed concerns about administration plans to provide "another major transfer of U.S. weapons, including bombs" without assurances that also include permitting more humanitarian aid and working to release hostages held by Hamas. Warning about the potential Rafah invasion, the lawmakers said they have no confidence that Netanyahu’s government can implement a plan to adequately protect civilians — which the Biden administration has called for — and said it’s “imperative that the administration holds firm and use all the tools at its disposal to stop any major military operation." FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — INDO-PACIFIC PROTECTION: The ambassadors of Australian and New Zealand called on House and Senate leadership to include an act that would renew agreements to safeguard three island nations in the Indo-Pacific in legislation as soon as possible. The decades-old Compacts of Free Association agreements allow Washington to offer economic assistance in exchange for military cooperation, with the goal of serving as a shield for Palau, the Marshall Islands and Micronesia against China. While the administration signed deals extending all three last year, Congress needs to approve a governmental budget source for more than $2 billion in funding promised in them. “The timely passage … is imperative to uphold our mutual interests in a vital region for our three countries,” Australian Ambassador KEVIN RUDD and New Zealand’s Ambassador BEDE CORRY wrote in a letter to Johnson, House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, Schumer and Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL on Thursday. They continue: “Failure to pass this act would have severe consequences,” such as the potential for heightened geopolitical economic vulnerability in those nations, and could impact the United States’ reputation.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | NOT OUR BUSINESS: Britain was forced to clarify today that Putin’s future as Moscow’s leader is a “matter for the Russian people” after a politician suggested the U.K. might be out to get him, our own ANDREW McDONALD reports. LAURA FARRIS, the U.K. government’s victims and safeguarding minister, said in a BBC appearance Thursday night that if Britain worked with its allies to maintain support for Ukraine, the Russian president could “ultimately” be removed from power. The U.K. government has repeatedly insisted that Putin’s removal is not one of the country’s objectives. Pressed by reporters today, Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK’s spokesperson declined to say if the prime minister agreed with Farris’ comments. “Vladimir Putin’s future is a matter for the Russian people,” the PM’s deputy spokesperson said.
| | — LESLEY WARNER is now deputy assistant to the administrator of USAID’s bureau for democracy, human rights and governance, or DRG. She most recently was senior policy adviser at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. — FILIP JOTEVSKI has been promoted to be special adviser and assistant in the USAID DRG bureau (mentioned above). He most recently was special assistant in the Europe and Eurasia Bureau.
| | — MICHELLE GOLDBERG, The New York Times: Will Gaza cost Biden re-election? — GIULIA PARAVICINI, Reuters: In Ethiopia, a secret committee orders killings and arrests to crush rebels — KATHLEEN McINNIS, DANIEL FATA, BENJAMIN JENSEN and JOSE MACIAS III, Center for Strategic and International Studies: Pulling their weight: the data on NATO responsibility sharing
| | — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 8 a.m.: Global dialogue discussion on China and Europe — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Security in the Horn of Africa with Somalia's Deputy Prime Minister H.E. SALAH JAMA — Atlantic Council, 5 p.m.: Redefining U.S. strategy with Latin America and the Caribbean for a new era Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has only seen a string of failures this month. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who knows nothing other than winning.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision
Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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