| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick l Follow Politico Canada Welcome to the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Zi-Ann Lum and Sue Allan. It's the morning after POLITICO Canada's first in-person event since the Before Times. Thanks to everyone who braved the mask-optional wilderness of downtown Ottawa. Today, we tap a former PMO insider's brain for polling insights. Plus, mischief on the Tory campaign trail. And how long does it take for a government to get tired?
|  | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | POLLING PRIORITIES: WWDAD? — There's a lot going on. Covid's latest wave, the sixth depending on where you live, is washing over Canadian cities. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is more than a month old. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH inked an historic cooperation pact, variously referred to as either a supply-and-confidence agreement and/or a coalition. We asked DAN ARNOLD, the PMO's former research and advertising pointman, what he'd be asking Canadians this week. Because, oh yeah, CHRYSTIA FREELAND is about to table her second budget. Arnold, who's now chief strategy officer at Pollara, played along. If here were still at the PMO, here are three things Arnold would be asking The People: — Increased spending, post-Ukraine invasion: "Media polls are showing majority support for increased defense spending, but a straight up support/oppose question will always show majority support for pretty much any budget ask. "I'd want to see how this ranked against other budget priorities, because my best guess is it would still lag far behind measures that directly impact Canadians. That doesn't mean the government shouldn't increase spending there, but if they go that route they'll need to know how much they want to make it a focus of post-budget comms." — What can the government do on inflation? "There's evidence Canadians are growing increasingly worried about inflation, but I'd want to dig into this topic more in focus groups to see if people blame the government for inflation. Despite the unrelenting attacks of a certain #cpcldr candidate, I get the feeling Canadians recognize this is a global phenomenon. "But they'll still expect the government to take the issue seriously and have solutions. So what are those solutions? Is it more financial support, less spending, a focus on supply chains, monetary policy? Again, government decision-makers will do what they believe works best, but they need to be able to find the part of their strategy that is easy to understand to show Canadians they are live to the issue and taking it seriously." — Deliverology: "The Liberal-NDP agreement will give the government runway to do big things. The Liberals would hope that doing those "big things" convinces progressive voters the party isn't "all talk" come the next election, so I'd take the deal as an opportunity to refresh polling on what milestones Canadians would find most meaningful. "Get a list of everything that could be done by 2025, and see what resonates the most. Is it planting X million trees, lifting all the boil-water advisories, childcare at $10 a day, dental care for all low-income Canadians?" — Stay tuned: Playbook's planning to consult our rolodex of pollsters who can shed a little light on the pressing questions they're asking Canadians to answer. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook to you today? Are you ready to be a forwarder, not a forwardee? Click here to sign up to this pretty good (but definitely free) newsletter.
| | CONSERVATIVE CORNER | | — PIERRE POILIEVRE is at Ottawa's Infinity Convention Center tonight for an anti-carbon tax rally. Poilievre is drawing big crowds on short notice. The fun at the high-capacity suburban space starts at 6:30 p.m. Will Playbook be there? Uh, yeah. Playbook will be there. — MELANIE PARADIS revealed an apparent data breach of Conservative party member data. Long story short, Paradis received a note from a leadership campaign thanking her for pledging a C$120 donation. (She had made no such pledge.) Turns out someone had apparently gained access to Paradis' email and phone number, and offered the fake support from a spoofed address in Kyiv, Ukraine. Paradis asks the question of the night : "Are more sophisticated things happening behind the scenes? And if so, who is behind it?" — JEAN CHAREST's camp heard tell of false pledges, too. They released a statement to Playbook: "Upon investigation we discovered that someone had gone to the campaign website and created false pledge submissions with IP addresses originating in Ukraine," said spokesperson MICHELLE COATES MATHER. "This is an obvious attempt to create chaos. Our campaign will not tolerate it. As such we immediately notified recipients of the error and [the Leadership Election Organizing Committee]. At this time, we will work with the LEOC committee to support their review process on this matter." — Team Charest picked up an endorsement from Quebec Sen. JEAN-GUY DAGENAIS. — Alberta MP ARNOLD VIERSEN announced his support for LESLYN LEWIS. Viersen is the fifth member of the Tory caucus to join the Lewis camp. — The CBC's CATHERINE CULLEN reports this morning: Leading leadership candidates are jockeying for position on the carbon tax. They all agreeing that hiking it is the wrong move, she writes. "But that's where their consensus ends." — Undeclared: 46 Tory MPs have yet to pick a side. That tally includes three in Calgary, three in Edmonton, one apiece in Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg and Quebec City. Are you an undecided Tory? We're here to help and promise we won't tell anyone (until you're ready).
| | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | | BUDGET TALK — If you missed our Wednesday Twitter Space on how to build a federal budget, you can still listen to the full 64-minute conversation with ROBERT ASSELIN, REBEKAH YOUNG, JENNIFER ROBSON and SAHIR KHAN. For the rest of the week, we'll inject highlights from the conversation into Playbook and our afternoon memo for Pro subscribers. — Fatigue in the halls of power: We asked the panel if governments that have big, bold dreams hatched in federal budgets — e.g. the Trudeau Liberals — inevitably run out of energy at some point. Khan, the executive vice-president at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy, took a stab at an answer: "Governments do get tired. I've watched them up close as a public servant. But so do voters and they get tired of just the signaling and the narrative that isn't kind of followed up with results. And it typically starts to hit the government in the third term. "For me, watching this budget, and watching the execution of this budget, I'm really looking for that connection between narrative and results." — Nice to see you: If you were one of the socially distanced attendees of our after-work budget mixer at Queen Street Fare, thanks for saying hello. Congrats to the National Post's CATHERINE LEVESQUE , Crestview's JULIAN OVENS, and the Canadian Dental Association's MICHEL BREAU for the lightning-fast responses to our shoe-centric budget trivia. (Think you can match that trio's swiftness? Scroll down to answer the same questions.) Playbook heard a rumor that Hy's — yes, the steakhouse to the stars of the Hill that closed a few years back — might make a return to Ottawa. Have any intel? Spill it.
| | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will attend Cabinet and QP. At 3 p.m., he'll meet a delegation from Ukraine's Parliament — a.k.a. the Verkhovna Rada. — Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will also sit in on Cabinet and meet the Ukrainians with the PM. 11:25 a.m. Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will deliver a keynote on net-zero ambitions at the GLOBE Forum 2022. 12 p.m. NDP MP RICHARD CANNINGS will table his PMB proposing to "eliminate the federal excise tax on low-alcoholic beer to help people with the rising cost of groceries." (Be nice, MPs. It's the man's birthday.) 12:15 p.m. Governor General MARY SIMON kicks off an official two-day tour of Ontario with an official welcome ceremony at Queen's Park in Toronto. — Simon's itinerary includes meetings with Lieutenant Governor ELIZABETH DOWDESWELL, Premier DOUG FORD, Ontario Regional Chief GLEN HARE, Métis Nation of Ontario President MARGARET FROH and Toronto Mayor JOHN TORY. 1 p.m. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER will announce a new cultural center with the Northern Secwepemc Cultural Society. 3:45 p.m. Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER, Sen. YUEN PAU WOO and Liberal MP GREG FERGUS will hold a presser.
| | ASK US ANYTHING | | What are you hearing that Playbook needs to know? Send it all our way.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — On the Front Burner pod this morning, Citizen defense reporter DAVID PUGLIESE discusses why, after disavowing the F-35 fighter jet, the Liberals have decided to launch negotiations to buy 88. — Montreal Gazette's ANDY RIGA reports on new numbers from the Institut national d'excellence en santé et en services sociaux that predict new Covid-19 hospitalizations could double in two weeks. — TRACEY HARVEY, a Selkirk College faculty researcher, writes in Policy Options on how cannabis growers are still being treated as criminals. — CP's MIA RABSON reports: Feds looking to "future proof" carbon price with legislation or compensation contracts. — PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER breaks down selection bias and the perils of partisan polling for L'actualité. — ANDREW MITROVICA writes in Al Jazeera on how the Liberal-NDP deal has jazzed things up in Ottawa and how the pact "makes plain the laser-thin daylight between the Liberals and Canada's pretend socialists on domestic and foreign policy." — The Canadian Press reports how Canadian beef consumers could get a break, thanks to a price-fixing class action lawsuit filed in Quebec Superior Court. — Economist MIKE MOFFATT spent time looking at national population data to understand how the pandemic has impacted trends.
| | PROZONE | | For subscribers, here's our Pro Canada PM memo from ANDY BLATCHFORD and ZI-ANN LUM: Ready for Covid's sixth wave? In other headlines for Pros: — European Commission presents anti-greenwashing proposal.
— Germany calls for people to cut energy use as response to Russian threat.
— Top NATO commander would keep Navy nuclear cruise missile that Biden plans to scrap.
— U.S. trade chief calls for industrial policy to combat China.
— Biden eyes using wartime powers for minerals needed in clean energy push.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to RICHARD CANNINGS (as noted above), former premier and ambassador GARY DOER and former B.C. MLA PAT PIMM. Spotted: NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH visiting the picket line outside the auditor general's office earlier this week … DEREK NIGHBOR, Forest Products Association of Canada president and CEO, reflects on being trashed online "for the first time in my professional career"… Sen. PATRICK BRAZEAU celebrating two years of sobriety. Sen. STAN KUTCHER with a real sign of spring in Ottawa: The "Hot Diggity Dog" cart at Bank and Laurier. BRITTLESTAR in Whitehorse with some of his luggage. Count P.E.I. Premier DENNIS KING among those newly stricken with Covid-19. Movers and shakers: SUPRIYA DWIVEDI has a new gig as director of policy & engagement McGill's Centre for Media, Technology & Democracy. Proof Strategies picked up a former Alberta infrastructure minister. SANDRA JANSEN, a former broadcaster who sat in both ALISON REDFORD and RACHEL NOTLEY's Cabinets, is now a vice-president on Proof's GR team. Canadian Cattlemen's Association board members elected REG SCHELLENBERG to serve as its new president and NATHAN PHINNEY as vice president. Look who popped up on Crestview's website: ALEX BYRNE-KRZYCKI, a former staffer at the trifecta of Parliament Hill, Queen's Park and the City of Toronto. The Canada Media Fund has a whole new exec team: NATHALIE CLERMONT takes the reins as executive vice-president of content strategy and business development; MATHIEU CHANTELOIS moves into the role of executive vice president of marketing and public affairs; TAMARA DAWIT is VP of growth and inclusion; ROD BUTLER is VP of content and regulatory; and RICHARD KOO is VP of analytics and strategic insights. Media mentions: 13-year-old journalist WYATT SHARPE got a standing O at Queen's Park … It happened after the teen's interview with BOB RAE … COLLEEN JONES, celebrating 35 at the CBC … CP's NICOLE THOMPSON, shifting from news to lifestyles. Farewells: JOYCE FAIRBAIRN, a former journalist and ex-Liberal senator, died Tuesday. Trudeau called Fairbairn "a wonderful friend both to my father and me, a passionate and brilliant Albertan, and above all, a truly dedicated servant of Canada." She was 82. — Tributes pour in: The Canadian Paralympic Committee called Fairbairn a "pillar of the Paralympic Movement in Canada" … Liberal MP GEORGE CHAHAL called her a "true champion of Alberta" … Paralympian and cabinet minister CARLA QUALTROUGH met Fairbairn at the 1998 Nagano games and called her a "game-changer" for the Paralympics. RUTH THORKELSON, former deputy CoS to PM PAUL MARTIN, said she looked up to Fairbairn and hoped she had "even an ounce of her commitment and energy to the cause."
| | On the Hill | | Here's what's on the roster so far: 9 a.m. Sen. ROBERT BLACK will be at the Senate committee on agriculture and forestry in support of Bill S-227, an act to establish Food Day in Canada. 9 a.m. The Senate committee on energy, the environment and natural resources plans to discuss hydrogen. 11 a.m. The House immigration committee is studying recruitment and acceptance rates of foreign students. 11 a.m. The House procedure committee continues to consider the inclusion of Indigenous languages on federal election ballots. 11 a.m. The House national security committee will hear from experts on the rise of ideologically motivated extremism in Canada. 11 a.m. The House public accounts committee will speak with the Auditor General and her office about the AG's report on the health and safety of temporary foreign workers in Canada. 11 a.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee continues its study of marine cargo container spills. 11:30 a.m. Former Cabinet ministers LLOYD AXWORTHY and ALLAN ROCK will join the Senate foreign affairs and international trade committee to discuss Bill S-217, an Act respecting the repurposing of certain seized, frozen or sequestrated assets. 3:30 p.m. The House foreign affairs committee will hear from experts on the Russia-Ukraine border. 3:30 p.m. Economist ARMINE YANIZYAN will be the first of many experts to speak to the House human resources committee about labor shortages and the care economy. 3:30 p.m. The House agriculture committee will be looking at supply chains. Fertilizer Canada and Réseau Végétal Québec will attend. 3:30 p.m. The House transport committee is also focused on supply chains and will hear from the Canadian Canola Growers Association, the Canadian Produce Marketing Association and Supply Chain Canada. 3:30 p.m. The House ethics committee continues to discuss its study on the government's use of mobility data. 3:30 p.m. Statistics Canada returns to the House finance committee as its study of inflation in Canada continues. 6:30 p.m. The House Standing Committee on Science and Research hears from BioCanRx, STEMCELL Technologies Inc., Université du Québec, the Brain Repair Centre and TRIUMF. 6:30 p.m. The House natural resources committee is studying fossil fuels subsidies. On its Thursday evening meeting roster: Canadian Climate Institute, Environmental Defence Canada, Indian Resource Council Inc. and the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Check out POLITICO Pro's calendar for additional committee activity, events and more.
| | TRIVIA | | Wednesday's answer: BRIAN MULRONEY and GEORGE H. W. BUSH took part in the SkyDome Summit in April 1990. In Maclean's, ROSS LAVER reported the leaders discussed trade, the Soviet Union, East-West relations and the environment. "The prime minister said that he was optimistic that the two countries would begin negotiating an acid-rain treaty as soon as Congress gives final approval to a bill imposing stringent new controls on U.S. air pollution," Laver reported. That deal was signed in 1991. Props to MICHAEL MACDONALD, CHRIS MCCLUSKEY, JOHN ECKER, KEVIN BOSCH, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, STEPHEN HARRIS, LEIGH LAMPERT, BEN ROTH and GEORGE YOUNG. Thursday's question: Three questions about budget footwear. No fair answering if you were at our Queen Street Fare mixer. In order, tell us: Who delivered their federal budget in mukluks? Who wore sneakers? And who wore work boots? Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn't happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, Ben Pauker and editor Sue Allan.
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