UNITED NATIONS: The U.N. General Assembly will convene for an emergency session, for only the 10th time, to debate Russia's Ukraine war. CLIMATE — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scientists have released their latest climate report, and it's more bad news. | Why it matters. — The Supreme Court will hear its biggest ever climate change case: which has the potential to "restrict or even eliminate the Environmental Protection Agency's authority to control the pollution that is heating the planet." WHERE PUTIN STANDS He's achieved little in military terms in Ukraine and is shedding allies everywhere. Putin's staunchest European allies abandoned him, from Czech President Miloš Zeman to Hungary's Viktor Orbán to French nationalist leader Marine Le Pen. China — supposedly in a "no limits partnership" with Russia sealed Feb. 4 — abstained and did not back Moscow at the U.N. on Friday. PUTIN IS FINANCIALLY DISABLED This strategic play has unknown risks to the West, but much graver known risks for Putin. "It's a kind of financial nuclear bomb that falls on Russia", said Sergei Aleksashenko, a former deputy director of Russia's central bank. The ruble is in free fall — falling more than 40 percent in early Monday trading. It is now worth one-third of what it was worth 10 years ago. The Russian Central Bank is scrambling to limit the disaster — it doubled its key interest rate from 9.5 percent to 20 percent — but it can no longer access its foreign currency reserves to offset the shock. Australia's sovereign wealth fund said it would wind down its Russian assets, and Australia's richest man, Andrew Forrest, will end hydrogen exploration in Russia. Russian propaganda tools have been shut down across Europe: Television networks RT and Sputnik have been erased from EU airwaves; and their ability to operate and profit on social platforms restricted. INTERNAL DISSENT IS GROWING In addition to protests in dozens of cities and at Russian embassies worldwide, outrage from prominent Russian sports stars and celebrities, now officials and other advisers are speaking out. Climate official Oleg Anisimov apologized to his Ukrainian counterpart Sunday at the end of a two-week online meeting to finalize the latest global climate status report. "All of those who know what is happening fail to find any justification for this attack against Ukraine," he said. Andrey Kortunov, of the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank with close ties to the foreign ministry, said he had not advised Russian officials to launch an invasion — and that the decision stunned officials. "I would say that many in the foreign office were surprised and shocked and I would even say devastated to see what is happening," he told the BBC. Two oligarchs have broken ranks with Putin: The first oligarch to find their voice was Ukrainian-born billionaire banker Mikhail Fridman who called for "bloodshed" to end (FT had the scoop). The second was Oleg Deripaska — the party king of Davos and a mining billionaire — who called for peace talks "as fast as possible" on Telegram. Roman Abramovich, the oligarch owner of Britain's Chelsea soccer club, sees the writing on the wall: Over the weekend, he attempted to transfer the club's running into the hands of a flimsy trust to avoid its seizure under U.K. sanctions. Tech workers are protesting — but will anyone in Putin's shrinking inner circle even tell him? SPORTS HUMILIATION: Russia is being gradually excluded from the sports world. The UEFA Champions League soccer final in St. Petersburg and the Sochi Formula One Grand Prix have been moved elsewhere. Poland is refusing to play next month's 2022 World Cup qualifier against Russia. The International Olympic Committee has requested its sports federations move their events: The World Junior Swimming Championships is canceled, and the senior affair is set to be moved out of Russia, too. In a personal blow to Putin, the International Judo Federation suspended him — a judo black belt — from his role as honorary president. Russian tennis player Andrey Rublev famously scribbled "no war please" onto a television camera. ON THE GROUND IN UKRAINE WORST IS YET TO COME IN UKRAINE'S CITIES: There are consistent reports of indiscriminate attacks against civilians, which Ukraine already wants heard by the International Criminal Court as war crimes. Three doctors writing overnight from a makeshift basement clinic in Kharki: Marina Petrushko, Vladimir Pinyaev and Taisiya Yurchuk told POLITICO "the Russians are destroying everything: residential neighborhoods, kindergartens, hospitals, even a blood transfusion station." They conclude: "Without the support of the whole world, we will not be able to cope with the Russian invasion." Ukraine can win with time and weapons: "The Ukrainians need to hold Kyiv for the next 72 hours to ensure they can get a proper resupply of not only Javelin anti-tank weapons but also small arms such as sniper rifles, and likely M16s, M4 carbines along with AK-style weapons. If they can do that the Russians will need to completely rethink their strategy," Harry J. Kazianis, senior director at the Center for the National Interest, told Global Insider. Russia could pretend to declare a victory, Kazianis thinks, or may "have to go 'scorched Earth' and bomb the country back into the stone age and win through sheer brutality. The bottom line is that this war will be decided one way or another in 72 hours." EU countries will give Ukraine fighter jets: The plan is to deliver Soviet-built MiG and Sukhoi planes that some EU members still operate or have parked in their facilities. That would make a pool of around 100 to 120 jets available. Ukraine has switched relatively smoothly to a wartime rhythm of life reports Nolan Peterson from Kyiv. THE DANGER OF A NO-FLY ZONE — AN ACCIDENTAL NATO CONFLICT: British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace made clear that a no-fly zone would mean putting "British fighter jets directly against Russian fighter jets," and "NATO would have to effectively declare war on Russia." Unlike the no-fly zone that protected vulnerable populations from Serbian forces during the Balkan Wars in the 1990s, Russia has a massive fleet of fighter jets, batteries of anti-aircraft missiles and thousands of nuclear weapons. WHY THE NUCLEAR THREAT IS REAL: "Russian nuclear weapons, unlike ours, are not guarded or deployed by soldiers who are required to disobey immoral or illegal orders. Our soldiers are legally taught to disobey orders that are either illegal or immoral. Russian soldiers are not. If Putin says fire on Rome — they fire. If Biden said that, every officer general to lieutenant has a protocol to assess legality or morality before executing the order," Matthew Schmidt , a Russia specialist at the University of New Haven told Global Insider. "This is not 'deterrence' on Putin's part — this is a threat," said Patricia Lewis, director of Chatham House's international security program. WAR GOES ONLINE: Can we call it a cyber war now? Read the cases for Yes and No. On top of state action, hackers are already diving in. Anonymous said it is "officially in cyber war against the Russian government" — claiming it took down the website of Russia's state-controlled media network RT. The Ukrainian Cyber Emergency Response Team has detailed attacks by the Belarusian cyber threat group UNC1151, better known for its "Ghostwriter" disinformation and cyberattacks. In Russia, the website of the Ministry of Defense, the Kremlin's website and the Duma's website have all been hacked (and are currently down). In a wide-ranging analysis, POLITICO looked at if, why and how Western countries would use cyber-offensive capabilities. SANCTIONS REVOLUTION First, they came for the yachts. Really, click on this. When it finally rained on the oligarchs, it poured. A senior U.S. official told reporters: "We will take their yachts, their luxury apartments, their money, their ability to send their kids to college abroad." The New York Post has published the address of every oligarch it could confirm. (I guess some doxxing is ok now?) The U.K. is creating a "Registry of Foreign Entities" requiring anonymous buyers of real estate over the past 20 years to disclose the name of their true owner. Even notionally neutral Switzerland will freeze Russian assets . "It's pretty freaking nuts. Weird to see every policy recommendation you've ever made implemented within the course of a week," Congressional anti-corruption adviser Paul Massaro told Global Insider. It's the central reserve asset freeze that matters most: Roughly $400 billion of Russian government money is held in the G-7 and is now blocked from being exchanged or used to prop up the ruble. The hat-tip for Russia's SWIFT expulsion goes to … Canada's Chrystia Freeland, the country's deputy prime minister — and the author of "Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else." Freeland worked for five days and nights to rally governments to make their previously half-hearted sanctions bite, according to a suite of Canadian and European officials. Read more about her efforts from POLITICO Canada. Belarus is now being hit with the same sanctions as Russiaas it begins to deploy troops against its neighbor Ukraine. According to Foreign Agent Registration Act records, at least five Washington operators have dropped their Russian clients in recent days: Sidley Austin (VTB Bank); Geopolitical Solutions LLC (VEB); T&R Productions (RT); Matthew Jay Lauer (International Center for Legal Protection); and Mercury (EN+ and Sovcombank). GLOBAL IMPACTS Putin's miscalculation, writes Zoya Sheftalovich, our Ukrainian-born editor of the London and Brussels Playbooks, was to think he was going to replicate the Taliban's march into Kabul. Instead of Afghanistan 2021, he got Afghanistan 1979: quicksand that threatens to destroy him. EU CROSSES ITS MILITARY RUBICON, CONSIDERS UKRAINE MEMBERSHIP: The EU is now genuinely united against Putin. The EU may not itself have the material to directly supply Ukraine, but make no mistake, it has mobilized as a bloc to respond — inserting itself directly into military action, under the leadership of Germany European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen , who in parallel called for Ukraine to become a member of the EU. Slovakia is urging a "fast-track" to membership, normally a years-long process. Von der Leyen is helping to suck Ukraine into the draft of her limited executive authority. Get the back story: — Defense specialist Pierre Morcos on t he EU's defense obstacles and how it overcame them. — "Don't underestimate Ursula" and her 2021 stirring speech on why she has trans-Atlantic commitment in her bones. BELARUS — MASS PROTESTS AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS: We are headed for major instability in Belarus. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya — the country's democratic opposition leader announced herself as the country's only legitimate leader, for the purposes of international negotiations, and Belarussians hit the streets to protest the war their government is joining, in numbers last seen at the height of post-presidential election protests, a year ago. Listen to a recent Global Insider podcast with Tsikhanouskaya, where she outlines what she needs from the West to assume the presidency. INDIA — CREATING A QUAD SCHISM: By joining China in abstaining from condemnation of Putin's actions, India set itself apart from its supposed Quad allies, and handed China a precedent for interfering in India's precious Kashmir. CHINA — DID PUTIN LIE TO XI? If Putin didn't transparently lay out the possibility of a Ukraine invasion at his February meeting with Xi, then he lied by omission. It's hardly the way to foster a deep partnership: forcing your ally to humiliatingly defend your right to violate their long-standing policy of supporting territorial integrity. All at a time when Xi is aiming to maximize stability as he pursues a mandate for life. FRANCE — ELECTION NOW TIPPED IN MACRON'S FAVOR: Macron's two biggest rivals, Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour (not to mention Jean-Luc Melenchon on the left) are Putin apologists, and have relied on Russian funding. Well, not anymore. They can't afford to have Kremlin links now, and in any case, couldn't take a loan from a Russian bank under sanctions. While Macron's shuttle diplomacy didn't save Ukraine, it did make him look like a peacemaker at home, so it might save his own bacon. GERMANY — A DEFENSE REVOLUTION IN A NEWS CYCLE: "From now on, we will invest more than two percent of the gross domestic product in our defense every year," Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Parliament on Sunday. (How deep is your Merkel love today?) Germany announced a special and immediate defense boost of $120 billion, committed to raising defense spending about 2 percent of GDP within a year and will supply armed drones to Ukraine. Germany will also build two port terminals for liquified natural gas imports to reduce its energy dependency on Russia in the port towns of Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel. The first gas shipments could arrive in 2024. ISRAEL — ANGERING EVERYONE WITH A BALANCING ACT: In attempting to please Russia by not taking sides, Israel risked a moral evil — abandoning a nation in need led by a fellow Jew, Volodymyr Zelenskyy — and angered America, its essential ally. But Israel suddenly changed its tune Monday morning and will vote in favor of the U.N. General Assembly resolution condemning Russia. So, you won't see Israel acting as a Russia-Ukraine mediator anytime soon. JAPAN — MAKES A TAIWAN DEFENSE PUSH: Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Sunday that it is time for the U.S. to make clear that it would defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion — which would mean ditching its decades-old policy of "strategic ambiguity." ASEAN — DELUSIONAL ON UKRAINE, MEANING NO HOPE ON MYANMAR: I won't waste space discussing ASEAN's Ukraine statement. Suffice to say that under Cambodia's leadership there won't be any accountability for the military junta running Myanmar.
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