All talk, no traction

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Jun 29, 2022 View in browser   By Maura Forrest and Andy Blatchford Send tips I Email Zi-Ann l Subscribe here Programming note: We'll be off Friday for Canada Day but back in your inboxes on Monday. WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. We're your hosts, Maura Forrest and Andy Blatchford, with Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, how far will Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU go to support NATO? Also, get ready for another political interference scandal to dominate the summer. And an update on the mystery candidate for Ottawa mayor! DRIVING THE DAY At the G-7. | Stefan Rousseau - Pool/Getty Images BOOTS ON THE GROUND — Before his journey to Madrid for the NATO summit, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU tried to offer reassuring words about how far Canada is willing to go to help bolster the alliance along its eastern front. With NATO meetings underway today, there's doubt any incoming Canadian offers in the form of additional troops will be enough. On Monday, NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG said the alliance will increase its high-readiness forces to more than 300,000 troops . Trudeau insists Canada is preparing to pitch in to respond to the Russian threat. "We, like others, are developing plans to be able to scale up rapidly," Trudeau told reporters Tuesday in the Bavarian Alps at the close of the G-7 summit. "Those are conversations that I very much look forward to having over the next couple of days in NATO." — The big question: How far will Canada go to support any NATO surge? Canada says it has some 1,375 soldiers in Central and Eastern Europe, including 700 in Latvia. Shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Liberal government announced around 3,400 Canadian Armed Forces personnel were authorized to deploy to the NATO Response Force should they be required. — The messaging: Military expert ROBERT HUEBERT tells Playbook that so far Canada's several hundred soldiers on the ground is "a drop in the bucket" when one considers Russia's might and the expansion demands from NATO and the other European partners. "We'll hear all sorts of good things," Huebert said of the message he expects Canada to attempt to deliver in Madrid. "Do any of them actually mean anything? Will any of them actually be sustained? That will be the real question, and I have my doubts on that basis of past performance." — More challenges: The Canadian military has struggled to grow its ranks in recent years and even experienced a decline during the Covid-19 pandemic. WAYNE EYRE, Canada's Chief of Defense Staff, told POLITICO last fall that the CAF lost 2,700 people after it had approached 68,000 personnel. One factor, Eyre said at the time, was almost certainly misconduct allegations that have engulfed the CAF's senior ranks. — Show me the money: And then there's the issue of dough. No conversation about NATO and Canada can happen these days without someone bringing up the fact Ottawa remains well below the alliance's defense-spending benchmark. NATO released a report this week that showed Canada's military investments, as a share of GDP, were expected to fall slightly between 2021 and 2022. The 2022 estimate of 1.27 percent remains below NATO's agreed-upon mark of 2 percent. Trudeau argues Canada has responded when needed on the world stage. "Canada is always part of NATO missions and continues to step up significantly," Trudeau said Tuesday when asked about the relative decline in Canada's defense spending. "Canadians expect us to do that in a responsible and reflective way." Huebert said moving in reverse on investment is a concern because Ottawa has long been talking up its commitments to boost defense expenditures. "We see a government seemingly trying to assert itself as hard as it can and we're still going backwards," Huebert said. "That should be a cause of concern for all Canadians." — Related reading: There's a strongman holding NATO hostage. And it's not Putin. Do you enjoy Ottawa Playbook? Maybe you know others who may like it, too. Hit forward. Click here to sign up to this free newsletter. For your radar ANOTHER SUMMER, ANOTHER SCANDAL — The headlines from Nova Scotia's mass casualty commission just keep coming. Tuesday saw the release of a letter written in April 2021 by LIA SCANLAN, an RCMP communications manager, criticizing RCMP Commissioner BRENDA LUCKI for focusing on the government's gun-control agenda during a conference call in the days after the April 2020 mass shooting. She didn't pull any punches. "The political lens was not our sole focus," she wrote. "It was appalling, inappropriate, unprofessional and extremely belittling." Scanlan claimed Lucki referred to direct pressure from BILL BLAIR , the public safety minister at the time, to release details about the firearms used in the shooting to support the Liberals' gun-control plans. — Per the Globe and Mail's ROBERT FIFE: Lucki has confirmed she received the letter from Scanlan, but says she didn't interfere in the investigation on the government's orders. She has said she regrets the way she approached the meeting. Blair and Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU have also denied they pressured Lucki to get information about the weapons. — Upcoming: The controversy will make its way to Ottawa next month, when a parliamentary committee will meet to hear from Lucki, Blair and others. MYSTERY CANDIDATE — The apparent challenger for the mayor's chair at Ottawa city hall will launch their campaign today, a source close to the candidate tells Playbook. — Cheat sheet: We learned earlier this week the candidate is active in the local charitable and nonprofit sectors, they possess decent athletic prowess, and they're an Order of Ottawa winner. All will be revealed before the sun goes down tonight. STEPPING DOWN — B.C. Premier JOHN HORGAN will resign after his party holds a leadership convention this fall, he announced Tuesday. Horgan recently underwent successful treatment for throat cancer, but said he lacks the energy to continue as premier. The NDP will have some time to choose their new leader ahead of the next election, which is scheduled for 2024. — High turnover: Horgan became premier in 2017 and won his second term in the fall of 2020. DAN ARNOLD, chief strategy officer at Pollara Strategic Insights, pointed out that with Horgan's departure, Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE will take up the mantle of longest-serving premier — with just four and a half years on the job. — Who's next? RICHARD ZUSSMAN has already offered a round-up of potential successors for Global News, including Attorney General DAVID EBY, Health Minister ADRIAN DIX, former MP NATHAN CULLEN and Minister of State for Infrastructure BOWINN MA. SWISS CHEESE IN THE BAVARIAN ALPS — The G-7 leaders' summit ended Tuesday with an agreement to explore a cap on the price of Russian oil, a promise of $4.5 billion to tackle food insecurity and a pledge to create a "Climate Club" to foster cooperation on global warming. The results look like "Swiss cheese — full of gaping holes," according to POLITICO's RYAN HEATH , who was in Elmau, Germany for the gathering. The leaders "issued statement after statement but did not agree to plans that might fundamentally alter the course of Russia's war in Ukraine, limit runaway global inflation or avert a looming famine." Read Heath's full report here. — Canada's contributions: The prime minister announced Tuesday that Canada will give a C$200-million loan to Ukraine through the International Monetary Fund. He also said Canada will provide C$75 million in humanitarian aid, C$52 million to help improve food security, C$15 million for mine clearing and C$9.7 million to support accountability for human rights violations. — Meanwhile: Environmental groups are disappointed with the G-7 leaders' weakening of a promise to end public financing of overseas fossil-fuel projects. Tuesday's communiqué says investment in liquefied natural gas is necessary to reduce dependence on Russian energy. "In these exceptional circumstances, publicly supported investment in the gas sector can be appropriate as a temporary response," the statement reads. Just last month, ministers from all G-7 nations agreed for the first time to end public financing of international fossil-fuel projects by the end of 2022. Here's another take from our colleagues KARL MATHIESEN and DAVID M. HERSZENHORN: A self-defeating G-7 fails on all fronts. — Later today: Oil Change International will release a report suggesting wealthy countries that promised to stop financing fossil fuels overseas, including Canada, are not on track to do so. — Bust and boom: The surging price of oil has led to a dramatic turnaround in Alberta's fiscal fortunes. The province on Tuesday announced a C$3.9-billion surplus in 2021-22, after originally expecting an C$18.2-billion deficit. The province collected a record C$16.2 billion in non-renewable resource revenues last year — "an opportunity to save resource revenue for future generations and avoid past mistakes that led to today's debt burden," Finance Minister JASON NIXON said in a news release. CONVOY UPDATE — As Ottawa police gear up for protests during this year's Canada Day celebrations, Freedom Convoy organizer TAMARA LICH will be back in court in the nation's capital today. Lich was arrested in Alberta Monday for alleged breach of bail conditions. TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. | AP Photo/Olivier Matthys Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Madrid for the NATO summit. All times are local. 8:55 a.m. The PM will participate in official arrivals at the summit. 9 a.m. Trudeau will meet with NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG. 9:30 a.m. Trudeau will meet with Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN. 10 a.m. The PM will attend an official welcome ceremony. 10:30 a.m. Trudeau will participate in the opening session of the North Atlantic council meeting. 2 p.m. Trudeau will meet with Swedish Prime Minister MAGDALENA ANDERSSON. 2:30 p.m. The PM will meet with Finnish Prime Minister SAULI NIINISTÖ. 3 p.m. Trudeau will participate in the North Atlantic council plenary session. 7 p.m. The PM will participate in a "transatlantic working dinner." Back home in Canada: 9:30 a.m. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA will make a funding announcement regarding air traffic control infrastructure at the NAV CANADA air traffic control tower in Mississauga. 10 a.m. Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU will make a funding announcement in Sherbrooke, Que. to support the Canadian wine sector. 11 a.m. Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO will make an announcement about preventing gun and gang violence in Toronto. 11:45 a.m. Governor General MARY SIMON will deliver a keynote address at the 50th anniversary celebration of the Federal Court and the Federal Court of Appeal in Ottawa. Supreme Court Chief Justice RICHARD WAGNER will also attend. 12 p.m. Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will visit Canadian company LP Royer and hold a news conference in Sherbrooke, Que. 12 p.m. Diversity and Inclusion Minister AHMED HUSSEN will join the Canadian Anti-Hate Network to make a virtual announcement about preventing hate in Canadian schools. 2:30 p.m. Freeland will meet with the Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce and Industry and local business leaders. SUMMERTIME READS Former Malpeque Liberal MP WAYNE EASTER sent Playbook two recommendations: "Freezing Order" by BILL BROWDER: "How he exposed VLADIMIR PUTIN 's campaign to steal and launder hundreds of billions of dollars from Russia — and how Putin is willing to kill anyone who stands in his way." — Read ANDY BLATCHFORD's Q&A with Browder here.  Easter also recommends MICHAEL COHEN's memoir: "Disloyal: The True Story of the Former Personal Attorney to President Donald J. Trump." Send us your reading suggestions — your brain food and your guilty pleasure! We'll share them in the Playbook newsletter. MEDIA ROOM — The government has waived Cabinet confidence over documents relating to its invocation of the Emergencies Act during the trucker protests in February, DARREN MAJOR reports for CBC News. — CBC reports this morning: Judge faces threats after Freedom Convoy hearings. — CTV asks a good question: Canada has been without an ambassador to China for 6 months. What's the holdup? — Canada's cyberspy agency has tried to stop foreign extremists from recruiting Canadians and sharing violent material online, the CBC's CATHARINE TUNNEY reports. — ICYMI, JUSTIN LING previewed Canada Day in Ottawa and the many forces at play. Catch him on The Big Story pod. — From Chatelaine: How secure is abortion access in Canada? — Over on Canadian Business, SRIVINDHYA KOLLURU surveys experts on the efficacy and unexpected outcomes of a federal gas tax. PROZONE If you're a POLITICO Pro subscriber, don't miss our latest policy newsletter from ANDY BLATCHFORD: Bonanza days in Alberta. In other news for subscribers: — NATO meets in the shadow of Russia-Ukraine war. — HHS launches website in wake of Supreme Court abortion decision. — Germany to back 2035 car engine ban with a condition. — Behind the scenes of the F-35 engine fight. — U.S. businesses would rue death of global tax deal, Treasury official says. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to DAVID DINGWALL, president and vice-chancellor of Cape Breton University: 70 today! Former Senator CHARLIE WATT also celebrates today, Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Movers and shakers: The federal Green Party hopes to announce a new leader Nov. 19. They are welcoming applications until Aug. 5. The Canadian Press details the process. Amazon is hiring a dedicated lobbyist in Canada to work on "digital policy issues," The Logic reports. Tourism Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT on Tuesday announced the appointment of four new members to Destination Canada's board of directors: BRENDA HOLDER, BENJAMIN RYAN, MARTIN SOUCY and NATALIE THIESEN. He also reappointed JULIE CANNING. MICHAEL FORIAN-ZYTYNSKY is leaving the political scene to lead government relations for Keurig Dr Pepper Canada. Spotted: Russia — with new personal sanctions on dozens of prominent Americans, including first lady JILL BIDEN, first daughter ASHLEY BIDEN, Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL, Sens. CHUCK GRASSLEY, KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND, SUSAN COLLINS, BEN SASSE and MARTIN HEINRICH, and FRANCIS FUKUYAMA. On Playbook's flight home from the Great Lakes Economic Forum in Chicago: MEGAN LESLIE, as well as seatmates ROCCO ROSSI and CATHERINE CLARK. Also en route to Toronto: MATTHEW MCCURDY, treasurer of the Council for the Great Lakes Region. Back in Ottawa after a two-year pause: THE RCMP MUSICAL RIDE. MARK CARNEY and MICHAEL SOLBERG, at the Alberta Relaunch conference. Read TYLER DAWSON on the Calgary event. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. TRIVIA Tuesday's answer: PEGGY NASH. The former NDP MP just published a book: Women Winning Office: An Activist's Guide to Getting Elected. Props to LAURA PAYTON, GORDON RANDALL, AMY BOUGHNER, LAURENT CARBONNEAU, KYLE ALLEN, JOANNA PLATER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SARAH ANDREWS, BOB GORDON, SHANNON SOMMERAUER, DOUG RICE, NANCI WAUGH, BRAM ABRAMSON, TIM MCCALLUM and JOHN ECKER. Former NDP MP MATTHEW DUBÉ of Proof Strategies also wrote in with the right answer. "Despite everything that was going on during those days, she still found the time to be an incredible mentor to those of us who were newly elected in 2011," he says of Nash. Wednesday's question: Canada Day performances at LeBreton Flats in Ottawa will feature a long list of artists, including one who once said: "When I was becoming a Canadian citizen, I was going through a moment of reflection. I was not half Canadian by half. I was becoming Canadian at 100 percent." Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn't happen without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Andy Blatchford @AndyBlatchford Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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