As the NATO summit kicks off in Madrid today, one thing is clear: It's going to be the most important summit of the week. NATO today defined Russia as its No. 1 threat, after the G-7 obliquely defined China as its core threat. The G-7 summit turned out to be Swiss cheese in the German mountains. The statements and promises flowed ceaselessly, but did nothing to fundamentally alter the course of Russia's war in Ukraine, limit runaway global inflation or avert a looming famine. But they did manage to back a call for funding new gas infrastructure and exploration, even as they met in the shadow of a dying glacier. If the G-7 was big on small things, NATO doesn't have that luxury. NATO SUMMIT DEEP DIVE Follow POLITICO's NATO live blog. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address NATO allies by video today. POLITICO's Lili Bayer spoke to over 20 ministers, ambassadors, diplomats and NATO senior staff about the alliance's future. They agree Madrid is a defining summit, where a new 10-year "strategic concept" for the alliance will be adopted. DEAL ON SWEDEN AND FINLAND JOINING NATO: Turkey, Sweden and Finland signed an agreement that would allow the two Nordic nations to join NATO, as Ankara ended its threats to block the accession process. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson over the weekend that he wanted to see a "concrete change in attitude" around the country's policy towards Kurdish independence, which includes providing safe haven to 100,000 Kurds, among them former guerrilla fighters and dissidents. What he got was Sweden and Finland recommitting not to provide any support to Kurdish-led fighters in Syria, to stop imposing arms embargoes against Turkey and to recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization (the EU already does that). Meet the Kurdish exile in Sweden around whom NATO's future pivoted: Amineh Kakabaveh is a former teenage Kurdish guerrilla fighter and now the swing vote in Sweden's parliament. SUMMIT JUICE: — U.S. TO ESTABLISH PERMANENT HQ IN POLAND: President Joe Biden said this morning that the U.S. will enhance its force posture in Europe, via a "permanent headquarters" in Poland, an additional rotational brigade in Romania, more deployments in the Baltics, additional F-35 squadrons in the U.K. and additional air defense in Germany and Italy. Read more from Paul McLeary here. — Turkey isn't the only "problem child" at this year's annual summit. The Hungarian government is the lone objector blocking the establishment of a Center for Democratic Resilience within NATO, a yearslong effort by Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), who serves as president of NATO's Parliamentary Assembly. The purpose of the center would be "to serve as a resource and a clearinghouse of best practices and cross-fertilization on democratic benchmarks available to member, partner, and aspirant states." — Spain gets its North Africa guarantee: Spain's Chief of Defense Staff Teodoro López Calderón confirmed today that the next NATO Strategic Concept will make explicit the need to defend the "territorial integrity" of its member countries, which he said will guarantee the protection of Ceuta and Melilla, two Spanish enclaves in North Africa. DEFENSE SPENDING UPDATE: 14 of NATO's 28 members now spend above the 2 percent of GDP target. NATO WILL BOOST ITS HIGH-READINESS FORCES TO MORE THAN 300,000 TROOPS, the alliance's chief announced on Monday, as part of plans that Jens Stoltenberg described as "the biggest overhaul of our collective defense and deterrence since the Cold War." That announcement took some members by surprise. NATO officials said the buildup should be ready by 2023, but German officials insist their contribution of about 15,000 soldiers will only be ready by 2025. It's no small task: The current NATO response force comprises approximately 40,000 troops. NEW NATO COMMANDER STARTS FRIDAY: Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Biden's nominee to lead U.S. forces in Europe (dual-hatted as NATO's top commander), starts July 1. Cavoli, who now commands U.S. Army forces on the continent, will succeed Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters as head of U.S. European Command and NATO supreme allied commander. The four-star general is fluent in Russian and received a master's degree from Yale University in Russian studies. Read more about Cavoli's interesting background here . NATO must focus on the longterm, writes Ivo Daalder — a former U.S. ambassador to NATO. G-7 SUMMIT WRAP The leaders treated the event as a refuge from their generally dismal approval ratings back home (Italy's Mario Draghi is the only one with a net positive approval rating) and the autocrats making their lives hell. But the problem with an alpine refuge is that no one can hear you scream — and scream they did, about each new piecemeal or contradictory initiative. Read Global Insider's full story here. The leaders announced a $600 billion infrastructure partnership without checking if the single biggest funder — the U.S. Congress — is on board. They focused on worthy but tiny things — like bulk-buying smart thermostats … not exactly a solution to Europe's oil and gas addiction, is it? Their most radical idea — a cap on the price of Russian oil — flies in the face of the leaders' criticisms Tuesday of China's "non-market policies," and possibly their own national laws. The policy is, in essence, a price-fixing cartel, which is illegal on both sides of the Atlantic. And precisely the sort of "non-market policy" the leaders criticized China for enacting. The leaders acknowledged Tuesday that "up to 323 million people globally will become acutely food insecure or are at high risk." Twenty million face starvation this year in the Horn of Africa alone. But the G-7 didn't have a plan for the single biggest way to avoid that: getting Ukrainian grain to the world via ships. "The long and short of it is that the only way to get the grain out quickly is by sea, and that would require some form of escorting mission or Russian acquiescence. The U.N. has been trying to negotiate a deal with Russia, but that's predictably gone nowhere. Which leaves escorting," Ivo Daalder told Global Insider. Leaders have been loath to touch the idea because of the risk of escalating conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia. "When I was in Washington at the beginning of the month, there was a lot of high-level interest in an escorting mission — with a number of DCs devoted to figuring out how to do it. But this hasn't seemed to move much. NATO is a more natural venue for discussing an escort mission," he added. Despite protestations, the task is logistically possible: Operation Earnest Will — the largest naval convoy operation since World War II — protected Kuwati oil exports from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988. In other words, the West has protected its oil sources in the past — but isn't protecting the grain needed by the world's poorest now. It's not a shining advertisement for democracy that delivers better than autocracy. The leaders did promise an extra $4.5 billion to reduce food insecurity across 47 countries and regional organizations. It may sound like a big number, but we did the math: That's just $13.93 for every person at risk of starvation or malnutrition this year. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT A wave of unrest is coming. Here's how to avert some of it, per The Economist. It's time for a G-12, Daalder and James Lindsay argue, meaning the current G-7 plus the EU, a NATO rep for security debates, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
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