Oil jobs are down. Don’t blame wind and solar.

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Aug 09, 2024 View in browser   By Mike Soraghan Presented by  A well drilling site is seen in the Marcellus Shale region near St. Marys, Pennsylvania. | Keith Srakocic/AP There's a fear in some circles that the transition to clean energy will someday kill off jobs in the oil and gas industry. It's not just former President Donald Trump. Environmentalists spend a lot of time talking about a “just transition.” Turns out, oil and gas companies are already cutting jobs in the oil and gas industry. As I reported this week, it's not that production is down. We're pumping more oil than any country in history and so much natural gas it's driving the price down. And it's not climate policy or increased use of wind and solar. Nope. This transition is just business. “You just need fewer workers to produce more oil,” Greg Upton, executive director of Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies, explained to me. Then there's the boom-bust cycle of oil and gas. And as busts go, the pandemic was a doozy. Oil production is up 5 percent since 2019, the last peak before the pandemic. In fact, just this week the industry marked a new record with last week's production clocking in at an average of 13.4 million barrels a day. But employment among the people who find that oil and pull it out of the ground is down nearly 20 percent from pre-pandemic levels. One thing about this trend, though. A lot of people don't know about it. Oil and gas still gets promoted as a job creator. “It’s still a very powerful claim,” said O’Leary, whose think tank focuses on expanding clean energy in Appalachia. “The narrative has legs of its own, quite removed from facts.” How’s it play in Pennsylvania? There's one place where this might matter more than anywhere else —Pennsylvania. It's the country's No. 2 gas producer, and perhaps the swingiest of swing states. The idea that candidates can't win there unless they support fracking has hardened into conventional wisdom. That just might be the reason Vice President Kamala Harris flipped her position recently. Fracking supporters say the hiring numbers miss the point. Many of the jobs supported by oil and gas drilling are a long way from the shale gas wells in the Keystone State. The Marcellus Shale Coalition, a trade group, says the industry in Pennsylvania supports 10 times the jobs that drilling wells create directly. But is opposing fracking the deal-breaker for Keystone State voters that it's made to be? Christopher Borick, a pollster and political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Pennsylvania, said it's not a sticking point for most Pennsylvanians. But the ones who love it, he said, really love it and it shows up in the way they vote. “All the little things matter” in a state as politically even as Pennsylvania, he said. The downward trend in drilling jobs “could have implications, but it’s not clear what the implications might be.”   It's Friday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Mike Soraghan, with help from Nicole Norman. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to jkirkland@eenews.net.   During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more.     Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Host country Azerbaijan and the specter of another Trump presidency are keeping some countries away from this year's international climate talks. Sara Schonhardt breaks down the tension.   A message from Williams: As clean, reliable energy demand increases at historic rates, one company is uniquely positioned to accelerate America forward: Williams. We have 116 years of experience in powering the nation, handling 1/3 of its natural gas—and we’re ready to help the country take the next step. Learn how we’re changing America’s future for the better in our latest Sustainability Report.   Power Centers A rendering of a server room in a data center. | iStock Analysts wary of an overhyped data center power demand With an influx of massive data centers popping up around the country, American utility companies are seeing electricity demand growth. Interim American Electric Power CEO Ben Fowke told analysts and investors that they see an increase in utilities of more than 40 percent by 2030. But analysts are not sure the buzz is all it is cracked up to be, writes Jeffey Tomich. “We’ll see two years from now whether or not everybody’s talking about it,” said Paul Patterson, a utility analyst at Glenrock Associates. An overexcited utility industry could mean higher costs for consumers in the future, as utility prices already begin to creep up for Americans in many parts of the country. “We have concerns that we’re going to potentially give utilities a blank check to build a lot of expensive stuff that we really don’t need,” said Kerwin Olson, executive director of the Citizens Action Coalition, an environmental and consumer advocate in Indiana. Move over, cap and trade. It’s cap and invest now Cap-and-trade carbon markets in places like Washington and California require highest carbon polluters to reduce their emissions or pay a penalty. But they also allow businesses to buy “allowances” from the state, which often get invested into carbon-reduction projects, leading former Washington state Sen. Reuven Carlyle to coin a new term for the nerdy policy, writes Anne C. Mulkern. Now called “cap-and-investment” markets, Democratic lawmakers like New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro are hopping on the trend, saying it is simply a better way to describe the policy. “Everybody agreed that it was spot on,” said Carlyle in a recent interview. “I never looked back.”   A message from Williams:   In Other News Summer bummer: Work still hasn't resumed at the Vineyard Wind offshore wind project after a blade came off one of the massive turbines and sent debris onto Nantucket beaches in mid-July. Cash flow slows for orphan wells: State regulators say they are having a hard time complying with Interior Department requirements for more funding to clean up abandoned oil wells. Double trouble: The West Virginia agency tasked with fighting the state's wildfires has been hit by budget cuts that have left it without the staff and resources it needs.   A message from Williams: Williams has been powering our nation’s growth since 1908—and we’re ready to power the next 100 years of clean energy innovation, with sustainability goals based on five pillars: 1. Providing Clean, Reliable and Affordable Energy We’re leveraging 116 years to accelerate our contributions to sustainability. 2. Minimizing Our Footprint We’ve reduced emissions intensity by 26% since 2018, while increasing energy throughput by 47%. 3. Protecting People and Strengthening Infrastructure Our Pipeline Integrity Program utilizes the latest innovations to keep our employees and communities safe. 4. Building an Empowered Workforce Our Employee Resource Groups enable a culture of understanding across our entire company. 5. Strengthening Our Communities In 2023 alone, we donated over $13.1 million to 2,142 organizations across 47 states and Washington, D.C. Read how we’re powering a better future for all Americans in our latest Sustainability Report.   Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a May 13 event with President Joe Biden. | Getty Images/Win McNamee The bipartisan energy permitting bill making its way through Congress could put Vice President Harris in a sticky situation with climate groups if she wins the presidency. Project 2025 takes aim at policies over hydrocarbons that have been a source of bipartisan agreement. Activists against offshore wind have formed the National Offshore-wind Opposition Alliance. That's it for today, folks. 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