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What Walz shares with Canada

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Aug 08, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan with Philippe J. Fournier

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Playbook wraps all the ways TIM WALZ intersects with Canada.

→ A closer look at the scuttlebutt on PABLO RODRIGUEZ.

→ Where the leaders are today.

FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA

Pablo Rodriguez holds a news conference in Ottawa on July 5, 2023.

Reports suggest Pablo Rodriguez is exploring a run for leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party. | Justin Tang, The Canadian Press

Good morning, Playbook readers. My name is PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER and this is the second to last day of my summer residency. If you’re here for astrophysics, skip to the end of this section.

NEW HORIZONS — Is Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ bound for the Quebec Liberal Party?

Radio-Canada’s SÉBASTIEN BOVET reports that Trudeau’s Quebec lieutenant “has begun consultations to gauge interest in a possible candidacy.”

— It’s no secret: The Quebec Liberal Party is eager to recruit more quality candidates for its leadership race. DENIS CODERRE, a former MP and ex-Montreal mayor, has to date received no support from QLP caucus.

— Zoom out: 338Canada federal projections suggest almost half of Trudeau’s Liberal caucus — including several Cabinet ministers — could be defeated in the next election unless public opinion turns around.

— Focus now: Rodriguez represents the Montreal riding of Honoré-Mercier, which remains one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada. He could plausibly remain in the LPC caucus and play a part in a post-Trudeau rebuild of the party.

— Zoom in: Let’s look at the numbers. No one seeking the QLP leadership could be accused of opportunism. The Quebec Liberals are polling third in the province; the francophone majority usually ranks them dead-last.

The provincial Liberals are polling below the federal Liberals in Quebec: 338Canada’s weighted average for the QLP is 17 percent (last updated in June), whereas their federal counterparts hover in the mid-20s in the province.

— The bigger picture: Should Rodriguez trade his safe LPC seat for a risky QLP leadership bid, watch for others in the Liberal caucus to explore greener pastures ahead of the scheduled federal election in 2025.

— For your calendar: The QLP leadership race officially begins in January; a new leader will be crowned in June in Quebec City. The next Quebec election is scheduled for Oct. 5, 2026.

PERSEVERANCE ROCKS — As you may know by now, I am an astrophysicist, so that’s where I’ll end today.

Perseverance rover, which has been exploring Jezero Crater on Mars since February 2021, discovered a “coffee-table sized” sedimentary rock featuring red and white stripes covered in dark-rimmed, light-colored splotches “resembling a leopard’s spots,” Lee Billings writes in Scientific American.

The rover’s instruments suggest the rock contains organic compounds — carbon-based molecules that are essential to life.

DRIVING THE DAY

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz at a campaign rally.

'You have a team that knows Canada, likes Canada, maybe even loves Canada," former U.S. Ambassador Bruce Heyman says of the Harris-Walz ticket. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

FIND THAT CANADA ANGLE KAMALA HARRIS’ VP pick, Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ, shares a thing or two with Canada.

There’s the deep trading relationship with what some have dubbed Canada’s 11th province. There’s his “Minnesota nice” attitude — the kind of guy who would chat you up in the Tim Hortons lineup, back when they were plentiful in his state. And the folksy governor with a humble upbringing gets along great with Ontario Premier DOUG FORD.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Canada BRUCE HEYMAN says these sorts of cultural and personal ties matter a lot, whether it’s Harris’ time growing up in Montreal or her newly minted running mate living just next door.

“Having these existing sets of experiences and relationships are what Canada looks for,” he tells Playbook, noting he was constantly being asked while in office about what then-President BARACK OBAMA, or JOE BIDEN or even DONALD TRUMP think and say about Canada.

“In this particular case, you have a team that knows Canada, likes Canada, maybe even loves Canada, and has a depth of experiences that every Canadian would look over and say, ‘I can be comfortable with that with my neighbor next door’ — in fact, not only comfortable, but excited to see that as a possibility.”

Not that the GOP ticket doesn’t have its own Canada ties, from the JD VANCE/JAMIL JIVANI bromance to the fact Trump’s grandfather once ran a Canadian brothel.

Heyman, who organizes for Democrats Abroad, was also quick to strike a contrast with the other ticket.

“The Harris-Walz team is better for Canada than the Trump-Vance team at every level,” he said. “Trump himself is very transactional. We saw it. ‘You give me this or I'll do this to you.’ You can see the tone and style is incredibly different with Harris-Walz.”

During the Trump administration, Canadian politicians and stakeholders of all stripes had to pull out all the stops to remind Trump and everyone in his orbit about the importance of the bilateral trading relationship.

— But, but, but: Former Canadian diplomat LOUISE BLAIS told Playbook in a recent conversation about Harris’ ties to Canada that it’s often hard to say just what kind of influence such cross-country connections will have, especially when the candidates don’t speak much about them. It’s often ultimately minimal.

“At the end of the day,” she said, “you're going to represent the interests of your country based on your own political trajectory.”

— Record check: Walz has been outspoken on protecting the domestic dairy industry —previously urging the Trump admin to get tough on Canada with trade law enforcement over controversial milk regulations that frustrated Minnesota farmers.

Walz also sided with environmental and Indigenous groups against Enbridge’s replacing of the Line 3 oil pipeline that stretches across the north of his state.

— On the ball: Premier Ford meanwhile says he’s “happy as punch” that a governor he’s cultivated a relationship with made the VP ticket.

Reporters quizzed Ford about his ties to Walz after the Star’s ROBERT BENZIE detailed a cozy meeting in June where they had an impromptu game of catch with a football to the amusement of their aides.

“We share a lot in common,” Ford said at a news conference Wednesday. “When we sat down. We tossed the football around a little bit in my office. We gave him a CFL football.”

Ford has met with Walz numerous times, and the two are members of a group known as the Great Lakes St. Lawrence Governors and Premiers.

Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., KIRSTEN HILLMAN, is also familiar with Walz, and met with him in Toronto recently when he was on a trade mission.

“We discussed our continued collaboration on our significant trade and people ties, shared security and defense priorities, the Great Lakes, climate and clean energy, and innovative health and agriculture technology,” Hillman said in a statement to Playbook.

— Third rail: Canadian politicians have largely been careful to avoid directly commenting on the U.S. race as it heats up, or risk getting sucked in.

“We’re going to work well together if he gets elected,” Ford said, then quickly balanced the comment. “I’ll work with anyone. I don’t care, Republican, Democrat — I don’t care who's in there, we'll work with them.”

— Rare move: Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH recently became the little-noticed exception to that rule, when he weighed in on his podcast that Trump is “bad for Canada.”

“He was bad for Canada in his first term and he will be worse for Canada if he gets a second term.”

— Related POLITICO read: ALEXANDER BURNS and JONATHAN MARTIN reveal a previously unpublished interview in which Walz talks about being targeted by Trump when the Covid-19 pandemic struck.

— Related read: iPolitics’ DAVIS LEGREE interviews Ambassador Hillman on Canada’s pre-election prep work — just don’t call it a “charm offensive.”

 

During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more.

 
 
Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is back in the National Capital Region with “no public events scheduled.”

— Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET is in Havre-aux-Maisons to meet GIL THÉRIAULT, head of the association representing Quebec's seal hunters. Later in the day, he’ll take in JOCELYN THÉRIAULT’s performance at Salle De Spectacle Aux Pas Perdus in Cap-aux-Meules.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Yellowknife and will meet with Northwest Territories Premier R.J. SIMPSON at 10:30 a.m. local time. At 11 a.m., they will hold a media availability at the Legislative Assembly of the Northwest Territories.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY have not released itineraries.

DULY NOTED


4:30 p.m. (ET) Defense Minister BILL BLAIR holds a press conference with Australian Defense Minister RICHARD MARLES in Vancouver after their bilat.

MEDIA ROOM


— The headline from the Hill via the Globe’s BILL CURRY: Former border agency official pressed to give false testimony, MPs told.

— The NDP want Canada’s elections commissioner to find out what's behind that army of social media bots, DAVID THURTON of CBC News reports.

— National Post's STEPHANIE TAYLOR reports the incoming head of the human rights commission will take leave instead of starting his new role while Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI considers an independent review.

JEFFREY SIMPSON reviews ANDREW LAWTON’s “generous-to-a-fault” biography of PIERRE POILIEVRE. “Despite having been a middle-ranking cabinet minister rather briefly in Harper’s government, he appears to have great confidence in how to run a country,” the former Globe columnist writes. “Indeed, based on Lawton’s account, Poilievre has great confidence in his judgment on almost all matters.”

“Is it time for JAGMEET SINGH to go?” DAVID MOSCROP asks over on The Walrus.

— From DAVID OLIVE at the Star today: “A broken Canada? No way. We’re wealthier than before the pandemic — and the future looks bright.”

— From POLITICO’s MAX GRIERA and AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES in Spain: Barcelona sealed off as police hunt for CARLES PUIGDEMONT.

ANITA VANDENBELD offered her take on last week’s gathering of the House status of women committee to National Newswatch — a piece that sent CPC Twitter into overdrive.

ÉRIC GRENIER notes in The Writ: “Next week Justin Trudeau will pass BRIAN MULRONEY as the seventh longest serving prime minister in Canadian history.”

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to former Cabinet minister and Stanley Cup champion KEN DRYDEN. Another opportunity for us to share the advice he’d give his 25-year-old self: “Just keep doing.”

GEORGES ERASMUS, former national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, also celebrates today.

And best wishes to Ontario’s Economic Development Minister VIC FEDELI, MPs RON MCKINNON and GÉRARD DELTELL (60!) and former MP PIERRETTE VENNE. 

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Spotted: PIERRE POILIEVRE, reading PAUL WELLS’ substack on the PM’s increasingly obscured public schedule.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU, at the 206th Royal St. John's Regatta with MPs SEAMUS O'REGAN and JOANNE THOMPSON.

Health Minister MARK HOLLAND trashing “Bring It On,” a 2000 teen movie about cheerleading, at a news conference Wednesday.

Danish Ambassador to Canada JARL FRIJS-MADSEN popping by the IRPP offices in Montréal.

Noted: NDP MP BRIAN MASSE repping “Team Canada” at the National Conference of State Legislatures in Louisville, Kentucky, with Sen. HASSAN YUSSUFF, Liberal MPs JAMES MALONEY and DAVID MCGUINTY, and Bloc MP SIMON-PIERRE SAVARD-TREMBLAY.

Movers and shakers: Retired CSIS director DAVID VIGNEAULT is joining the U.S. security tech firm Strider Technologies as managing director of its global intelligence unit.

ERIKA ALEXANDER won the Conservative nomination to run under the party banner in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas. She’s granddaughter of the late LINCOLN ALEXANDER, the first Black MP and Cabinet minister.

TIM MURPHY, former chief of staff to then-PM PAUL MARTIN, joins the infrastructure construction company Aecon Group as chief strategic affairs officer.

ZACHARY AUTHIER is joining Global Public Affairs in its Victoria office after two years at the Indigenous Resource Network.

PROZONE


Don’t miss our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers: A Tim Walz policy guide. 

For your calendar: Join POLITICO Pro on Friday for a detailed discussion with reporters on what Walz's track record says about the policies he and Harris will embrace in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign. Register for the briefing.

In other headlines for Pros:

‘This is *the* climate pick’: How Walz could reshape the race.

Drumbeat grows louder on Hill for looser hydrogen rules.

Over 3.4 million homes claimed IRA energy credits, feds say.

Atlantic herring fishery teeters on the edge of collapse.

Commerce signals crackdown on Chinese tech in driverless cars.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY


Tourism Minister SORAYA MARTINEZ FERRADA will be at Parc du Bourg de Pabos in Quebec with Fisheries and Oceans Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER. She will later speak at the Festival Musique du Bout du Monde.

8:30 a.m. (9:30 a.m. AT): Families Minister JENNA SUDDS will meet with employees of Le Petit Voilier in Bedford, Nova Scotia, to discuss early learning and child care. Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT and Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND will also attend.

10 a.m. Leaders from the Canadian steel and the aluminum industry will hold a joint presser in West Block. On their agenda: “The threat of excess capacity from China flooding the Canadian market and the need for urgent government action.”

10:30 a.m. Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE holds a press conference at city hall for a “significant announcement” with City Manager WENDY STEPHANSON.

1:30 p.m. (12:30 p.m. CT): Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ will be at the Perimeter Aviation terminal at Winnipeg’s airport with Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL and JOEY PETRISOR, president and CEO of Perimeter Aviation, for an announcement on infrastructure funding and regional connectivity. There will be a media availability.

Trivia


Wednesday’s answer: The Peace Bridge between Canada and the U.S. officially opened Aug. 7, 1927.

Props to LAURA JARVIS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, JOHN ALHO, CAMERON RYAN, DENISE SIELE, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, JOHN ECKER, DEREK DECLOET and GUY SKIPWORTH. 

Today’s question: Who was the unelected person former PM STEPHEN HARPER tapped for a Cabinet position, before appointing them to the Senate?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing tomorrow's Playbook: KYLE DUGGAN

 

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