| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | Presented by the Brennan Center for Justice | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | NEW OVERNIGHT — Marquette University Law School is out with a new nationwide survey that’s sure to drive conversation:
- In the head-to-head: Among likely voters, KAMALA HARRIS leads DONALD TRUMP by six points, 53% to 47%.
- In the multicandidate field: Among likely voters, it’s Harris at 50%, Trump at 42%, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. at 6%, Libertarian CHASE OLIVER at 1%, Green Party candidate JILL STEIN at 1% and CORNEL WEST at 0%.
And the Cook Political Report just moved three states in Harris’ direction: Arizona, Nevada and Georgia are now back in Toss Up after moving to Lean Republican last month.
|  Donald Trump campaign’s latest strategy has come into view: flaying Tim Walz's military record. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | TRUMP’S ‘OPERATION: SWIFT BOAT’ — So much for that GOP reboot to focus on policy. In a hailfire of attacks over the last 24 hours, the Trump campaign’s latest strategy has come into view: flaying TIM WALZ’s military record by accusing him of misrepresenting his rank, his service and abandoning his unit on the eve of its deployment to Iraq. Allegations of “stolen valor,” to use the phrase Trump No. 2 JD VANCE (R-Ohio) deployed yesterday, have a gravity and seriousness far beyond your typical campaign jab. They’re personal and cutting. If substantiated, they can be career-ending. Even if unsubstantiated, they can be image-defining — but can also undercut the gravity of the charge itself, reducing it to just another political grenade. The Trump campaign knows this. In 2004, CHRIS LaCIVITA waged a successful effort under the banner of “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” to discredit Purple Heart recipient JOHN KERRY’s Vietnam record in the months ahead of his 2004 loss to GEORGE W. BUSH. LaCivita is now one of Trump’s top advisers. "The two biggest sins in the military are claiming credit for decorations you don’t have or claiming combat action that you did not participate in …. And this much is certain: He's guilty of at least one of them," LaCivita told our colleagues Jared Mitovich, Meredith McGraw and Connor O’Brien yesterday. “Nothing regarding his lies has been weaponized in a political sense. That's about to change.” There are risks to this approach.
- 2024 is not 2004. In that election, the Iraq War was perhaps the defining issue; this year, the election centers on domestic politics. It’s unclear whether these very personal attacks will even move the needle with voters who care more about issues like the economy, the border and so on.
- It focuses attacks on the running mate, not the principal. There’s a compelling case that every day the Republicans spend talking about fine points of Walz’s military record rather than prosecuting the case against Kamala Harris that they insist they want to make — and about which they have yet to settle on a clear message — is a distraction.
- Then there’s Trump himself, who has faced well-documented accusations that he repeatedly dodged the Vietnam draft by claiming to have “bone spurs” in his feet that kept him from serving.
While there are legitimate questions about how Walz — who served in the Nebraska and Minnesota National Guard — has characterized parts of his 24-year-long military career, there are just as many questions about whether Team Trump is characterizing them fairly. Plus, we’ll note, Walz has faced these attacks in past races and still won. Let’s unpack some of this. 1. The accusation: Walz abandoned his men before they deployed, leaving them hanging without a leader. The facts: Walz retired to run for Congress amid rumors that his men could be deployed, JOSEPH EUSTICE, who served with Walz at the time, told ABC News’ Anne Flaherty, Nathan Luna, Luis Martinez, and Justin Fishel. But they didn’t know for sure. In fact, “Walz filed paperwork for his congressional run in February 2005, about a month before reports emerged that the Minnesota National Guard might be deployed,” our colleagues report. “Walz then announced his run in May of that year, two months before the Minnesota National Guard's directive was officially issued.” There’s no evidence that Walz left specifically to avoid a wartime deployment. In fact, Eustice told ABC News that Walz struggled with the decision. Walz, a critic of Bush’s war in Iraq, had a 4-year-old daughter at the time. While some of his fellow servicemembers criticized his decision to leave, others balked at the notion that he was trying to dodge combat. “He was not that kind of man,” one of his comrades AL BONNIFIELD told WaPo’s Dan Lamothe, Shawn Boburg and Alex Horton. 2. The accusation: Walz lied about serving in combat. The facts: The Harris campaign itself recently circulated a video of Walz calling for background checks for gun purchases: “We can make sure those weapons of war, that I carried in war, are only carried in war.” That remark continues to raise eyebrows since Walz has openly acknowledged he never faced active combat, thus leaving real questions about why he’d say he carried such a weapon “in war.” 3. The accusation: Walz “falsely claimed he served in Afghanistan” The facts: Chuck Ross of the conservative Washington Free Beacon dug up an archived Walz press release from 2006 that calls him “a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom,” the first stage of the War on Terror after 9/11. They also have video of an upset veteran confronting Walz staff about his claim, arguing that those who didn’t serve on the ground in Afghanistan are not allowed to do so. It’s not exactly a clean shot. Walz was, in fact, deployed between 2003 and 2004 to Europe to support Operation Enduring Freedom, but was never deployed to Afghanistan, where OEF was centered. There appears to be some disagreement not only about whether OEF was Afghanistan-specific — and whether those who served in support of the mission are allowed to say they were part of it. As WaPo’s military reporter Dan Lamothe noted on X last night, the operation itself lists casualties in countries beyond Afghanistan. 4. The accusation: Walz inflated his rank — an allegation two retired command sergeants major also made during Walz’s 2018 run for governor. The facts: The Harris campaign and others have described Walz as a “retired Command Sergeant Major” in recent days. It’s true that he rose to that rank, but he didn’t retain that title. “Walz indeed achieved that rank in service in September 2004,” ABC News notes. “But he would have had to serve in that particular role for three years to retire as one officially, according to the National Guard.” Thus, claims by Walz and his allies describing him as such are inaccurate, per WaPo: “Walz himself did so in a video clip from 2006 that was surfaced by C-SPAN on Tuesday and in a 2018 clip posted on his own YouTube account.” (The Harris campaign website now says, accurately, that Walz “served for 24 years, rising to the rank of Command Sergeant Major.”) WHAT OTHER VETERAN POLS SAY: Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), a former Green Beret, was among the Republicans slamming Walz yesterday: “It is kind of like the quarterback of a big team walking away from their team right before they go to the Super Bowl. I’ve never heard anything like it.” But some high-ranking Democrats appear to think they can parry these attacks — and maybe use them to their benefit. Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG, who served in Afghanistan in the Navy Reserve, took a swipe at Vance on X, saying “denigrating the worth of a soldier’s service based on whether he deployed to a war zone is… kind of like denigrating the worth of a woman’s citizenship based on whether she happens to have children.” Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.), a former Navy fighter pilot, used the chance to take a shot at Trump: “You both deserve to be thanked for your service. Don’t become Donald Trump. He calls veterans suckers and losers and that is beneath those of us who have actually served.” And, FWIW, here’s former Rep. PETER MEIJER (R-Mich.), who was an intelligence adviser in Iraq: “I think Walz played fast & loose with his military bio,” he wrote on X late last night. “He let audiences paint in their minds a deceptive picture. It was shady but not stolen valor.” Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: Supreme Court reform is an issue whose time has come. Public trust in the Supreme Court has plunged to the lowest level ever recorded, and term limits for the justices has broad bipartisan support. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. The result? A Court with more legitimacy that better reflects American values. No one should have that much power for life. Learn more about term limits. | | | UP FOR DEBATE — Trump edged closer to agreeing to debate Harris yesterday in a Fox News interview, saying it would probably happen “in the pretty near future.” More from USA Today LOOK WHO’S TALKING — ABC’s Lucien Bruggeman and Katherine Faulders revealed eye-popping audio from 2020 of Trump praising Walz’s response to protests after GEORGE FLOYD’s murder: “I fully agree with the way he handled it the last couple of days,” the then-president said on June 1. That could undercut an emerging line of GOP criticism against Walz (and, perhaps, be a sore spot for the left, too). LOOK WHO’S (NOT) TALKING — Harris is starting to face more questions about why she isn’t doing more press, which are only bound to grow louder. Our West Wing Playbook colleagues report that her campaign is thinking about setting up a big joint interview with her and Walz — but they’re generally skeptical that such moments provide much electoral value. FEAR AND LOATHING AT MAR-A-LAGO — “Trump complains about campaign as advisers try to focus on attacking Harris,” by WaPo’s Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer: “[H]e has grown increasingly upset about Harris’s surging poll numbers and media coverage since replacing [President JOE] BIDEN on the ticket, complaining relentlessly and asking friends about how his campaign is performing … Allies have taken to finger-pointing … The Trump campaign, for its part, remains confident that he will win decisively.” FEAR AND LOATHING IN PACIFIC HEIGHTS — Former Speaker NANCY PELOSI said yet more yesterday about her July campaign to nudge Biden out of office, this time in a sitdown with WaPo’s Paul Kane and other reporters: “‘My goal in life was that that man would never set foot in the White House again,’ she said of Trump, pounding the table nine times for emphasis and to explain why she acted. She added that she couldn’t stand to see ‘an unfolding of events that were just putting rose petals in front of him to go there.’” DNC COUNTDOWN — The Democratic National Convention is less than two weeks away. Are you headed to Chicago? Join POLITICO for live, in-person conversations with the Democratic Party’s biggest newsmakers. Sign up to get notified when registration opens
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … Ahead of a possible GOP governing trifecta next year, Republican climate hawks are setting down a marker: They don’t want a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act. Emma Dumain of POLITICO’s E&E News scooped a letter to Speaker MIKE JOHNSON by 18 House members arguing that the historic climate bill’s clean energy tax credits, which have spurred investment in many of their districts, should be preserved. The signers include Rep. ANDREW GARBARINO (R-N.Y.), co-chair of the bipartisan House Climate Solutions Caucus; Rep. MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS (R-Iowa), chair of the House Conservative Climate Caucus; and Rep. JOHN CURTIS (R-Utah), who is likely to be Sen. Curtis next year. At the White House Biden will call Hawaii Gov. JOSH GREEN and Maui County Mayor RICHARD BISSEN at 12:30 p.m. to mark one year since the awful Maui wildfires. At 4 p.m., he’ll welcome the World Series champion Texas Rangers to the White House. In the evening, he and first lady JILL BIDEN will greet campaign staffers in Wilmington, Delaware, before heading to Rehoboth Beach. On the trail Harris will deliver remarks at a campaign event in Detroit this afternoon before traveling to Phoenix.
| | | | Breaking News Briefing: Where Tim Walz Stands on the Issues — The Democratic ticket is set now that Vice President Kamala Harris has named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Join POLITICO Pro on Friday Aug. 9 for a detailed discussion with specialist reporters on what Walz's track record says about the policies he and Harris will embrace in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign. Register for the Briefing | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  Hezbollah supporters hold portraits that show Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah and one of his commanders Fouad Shukur, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike last week, in Beirut, Lebanon on Tuesday. | Mustafa Jamalddine/AP Photo | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The big Hezbollah and Iranian retaliation against Israel hasn’t yet arrived. But Israeli officials have already warned the U.S. that Hezbollah hurting civilians would trigger a “disproportionate” response from the Israel Defense Forces, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. Israel says it doesn’t want an even larger regional war than the one that already exists, but it’s setting out red lines now — especially as fears loom of any error by Hezbollah potentially killing civilians near Israeli military bases around Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, responding to outrage about alleged Israeli sexual assault of a Palestinian detainee, the State Department’s MATTHEW MILLER said Israel needs to investigate and have “zero tolerance,” per CNN. Across the region, the ongoing series of Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships in response to the Israel-Hamas war has operated on a mostly slower burn. But with time, the Western reaction has become “the most sustained military campaign by American forces since the anti-ISIS air war in Iraq and Syria that reached its height in 2016-2019,” Paul McLeary, Joe Gould and Connor O’Brien write. That could escalate with new Iranian/Hezbollah attacks. And Congress is now reckoning with whether the Pentagon will need more funding for the mission. 2024 WATCH REALITY CHECK — Playbook readers already know that though Project 2025 is independent of the Trump campaign, his claims to know nothing of it aren’t credible. A new report from WaPo’s Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Hannah Knowles puts a finer point on that: In 2022, Trump and Heritage leader KEVIN ROBERTS took a 45-minute flight together to a conference where Trump said, “They’re going to lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do.” THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN — Harris has managed to rally labor unions around her candidacy quickly by telling them she’ll continue with Biden’s pro-worker policies, Adam Cancryn reports. She’s also consolidating support from vulnerable Senate Democrats, who are showing up to her events after keeping their distance from Biden, per Megan Messerly. And from tech venture capitalists, who held the latest big Zoom call to support Harris, per NYT’s Teddy Schleifer and Erin Griffith. THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — “Trump keeps losing his train of thought. Cognitive experts have theories about why,” by Stat’s Olivia Goldhill: “Back in 2017, Trump’s first year in the White House, a STAT analysis showed Trump’s speaking style had deteriorated since the 1980s. Seven years on, now that Trump has the GOP presidential nomination, STAT has repeated the analysis. The experts noted a further reduction in Trump’s linguistic complexity and, while none said they could give a diagnosis without an examination, some said certain shifts in his speaking style are potential indications of cognitive decline.” EXAMINING HARRIS’ RECORD — “Harris was ‘last person in the room’ on Afghan exit, but her influence is unclear,” by WaPo’s Michael Kranish and Dan Lamothe: "She raised important questions about the Afghanistan withdrawal before the calamitous, 17-day evacuation from Kabul but did not push for any alternative policy.” POLICY CORNER
|  Donald Trump has pledged to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve back up to a high level as soon as possible should he return to the White House. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | OIL AND WATER — If Trump returns to the White House, he is pledging to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve back up to a high level as soon as possible. The plan, which he pronounced most recently on Fox News yesterday, would return U.S. energy reserves to a similar level as during Trump’s term, FT’s Malcolm Moore reports. Buying nearly 300 million barrels of crude — which would need congressional sign-off — would push oil demand higher, with potential ramifications for global prices. Republicans have blasted Biden for releasing significant amounts from the reserves since Russia attacked Ukraine, which they argue is just trying to keep prices low ahead of the election, though his administration has been buying more recently. At the same time, U.S. oil production is booming: Crude output hit an all-time high last week, Ben Lefebvre reports. That means that despite GOP criticism of Biden — and his environmentalist bona fides — the U.S. remains “the biggest oil and gas producer in history.” More top reads:
- Big investigation: “How a US health agency became a shield for polluters,” by Reuters’ Jaimi Dowdell, M.B. Pell, Benjamin Lesser, Michelle Conlin, Phoebe Quinton and Waylon Cunningham: “Companies and others responsible for some of America’s most toxic waste sites are using a federal health agency’s faulty reports to save money on cleanups, defend against lawsuits and deny victims compensation.”
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:   | | | THE WHITE HOUSE POTUS SPEAKS — Biden sat down with CBS’ Robert Costa for his first interview since dropping out of the race, which will mostly air on “CBS News Sunday Morning.” In an advance snippet released yesterday, Biden worried aloud about Trump disrupting a peaceful transfer of power if Harris wins: “I’m not confident at all” in that case, the president said. “He means what he says. We don’t take him seriously. He means it. All this stuff about ‘if we lose, it’ll be a bloodbath.’” MORE POLITICS BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — Republicans are going up with some notable ad buys in key Senate races. The NRSC’s independent expenditure and the One Nation super PAC are both hammering Democratic Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN, newly nominated in Michigan’s Senate race, for voting for pandemic-era spending that they link to inflation, NBC’s Bridget Bowman reports. Americans for Prosperity Action is launching nearly $6 million in ads in Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, largely criticizing Democratic spending and touting GOP challengers, Fox News’ Julia Johnson scooped. IT’S 2020 SOMEWHERE — “Reinvestigation of Fulton’s 2020 election ordered by Georgia Election Board,” by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Mark Niesse JUDICIARY SQUARE
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The special counsel's office alleges Hunter Biden took paid work from Roman businessman Gabriel Popoviciu. | Matt Slocum/AP Photo | GATHERING HUNTER — In a new filing yesterday, special counsel DAVID WEISS’ office alleged that HUNTER BIDEN took paid work from GABRIEL POPOVICIU as the Romanian businessman tried to exert influence on the BARACK OBAMA administration, ABC’s Lucien Bruggeman reports. Notably, that “would mark the closest prosecutors have come to tying President Joe Biden,” who was VP at the time, “to his son’s overseas business endeavors.” The accusation, which comes as part of the tax case against the president’s son, says for the first time that Hunter Biden and his business partners got $3 million from Popoviciu from 2015 to 2017. Hunter Biden didn’t respond to ABC’s request for comment; there remains no evidence that Joe Biden acted corruptly. Overall, the prosecutors’ filing shows that they don’t plan to charge Hunter Biden with a Foreign Agents Registration Act violation, but they will use the foreign influence allegations to build an aggressive tax case, NYT’s Glenn Thrush and Ken Vogel report. VALLEY TALK BRUTAL FOR ELON MUSK — “It’s Elon Musk’s X and governments are having to live with it,” by John Sakellariadis, Christine Mui and Brittany Gibson: “Musk’s latest flurry of innuendo, half-truths and lies online is making it increasingly clear that it is the tech mogul — and not just his platform — who poses the greatest challenge to governments struggling to rein in content that can incite extremist violence. … Angry officials are trying to find levers to pull to influence the world’s richest man.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Kamala Harris and Tim Walz’s camo hat is quickly going all over. Bill Pascrell is out of the hospital. Robert F. Kennedy was grilled about training ravens, and said he once had a “freezer full” of roadkill. Steve Martin turned down Lorne Michaels’ request for him to portray Tim Walz on “SNL.” Antony Blinken was gifted a horse in Mongolia. Nathan Deal wrote a children’s book about his cats. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jessica McCall and Erika West have launched a new political and advocacy consulting firm, Auburn Advisors. Together, they’re alums of Barack Obama, Color of Change, John Conyers Jr., the DCCC and Planned Parenthood. — Jessica Presley is joining the American Sunlight Project as managing director. She previously was digital content strategist to NASA Administrator Bill Nelson and is a Nancy Pelosi alum. TRANSITIONS — Gina Metrakas is now chief of staff at HUD. She previously was the agency’s COO. … Peter Reid is joining Barclays as managing director and group head of external engagement. He previously was head of strategic comms for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. … Katelyn Ringrose is now a privacy and cybersecurity associate at McDermott Will & Emery. She previously was global policy lead for law enforcement and government access at Google. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin … Ron Klain … CNN’s Kylie Atwood … Virginia Heffernan ... Ken Cook of the Environmental Working Group … Jay Gertsema ... ABC’s Claire Brinberg ... Tyler Bowders … Jonah Seiger ... Morning Brew’s Josh Sternberg ... Samantha Cantrell of Rep. David Kustoff’s (R-Tenn.) office … George Tzamaras of the American Immigration Lawyers Association (64) … Jo Duchesne of Rep. Ted Lieu’s (D-Calif.) office … David Friedman … Catharine Cypher … Jackson Diehl ... Hayley Matz Meadvin … Michael Toner … POLITICO’s Daniela Falvo Bredenkamp and Matthew Karnitschnig … Mike Dankler ... CBS’ Lance Frank … Axios’ Matt Trujillo … former Michigan Gov. Jim Blanchard ... Habib Durrani ... David Bass of Raptor Strategies … Teach for America’s Joe Walsh ... Marc Ambinder … American Conservation Coalition’s Sarah Jensen … Eric Brakey … Ted Thompson of the Michael J. Fox Foundation … Kern Williams … Sarah Garfinkel of West End Strategy Team … Paul Brandus Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated the primary results in Michigan. Paul Hudson and Paul Junge will be the Republican candidates in two Democratic districts. In one Republican-held seat, Carl Marlinga will be the Democratic candidate. It also mischaracterized the ranking Tim Walz was given by the Center for Effective Lawmaking while in Congress. He was named the seventh-most effective member of the House.
| | | | A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: In response to a cascade of ethics scandals laying bare a system in which Supreme Court justices wield tremendous power for decades with little accountability, President Biden has called for 18-year term limits and a binding code of ethics. These reforms have bipartisan support among a majority of Americans. Congress must take action to establish 18-year term limits and bring regular turnover to the bench. Doing so would save the Court from itself, helping to drain the toxicity from the confirmation process and restore balance to the bench. These are conservative ideas, resting on a foundational premise of accountability: nobody should hold too much public power for too long. The result would be a Court that better reflects American values. To learn more about the constitutionality of term limits, visit the Brennan Center’s term limits resources. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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