The ‘wide open’ GOP leader race

An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead

Aug 07, 2024 View in browser   By Ursula Perano and Jordain Carney Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) arrives for a press conference at the U.S. Capitol, on July 30, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO TWO JOHNS AND A RICK As the November elections near, so does the battle to succeed outgoing GOP Leader Mitch McConnell. We checked in with Senate Republicans on how that contest is going before they left town last week. The verdict? Nobody has it locked up — yet. Interviews with more than a dozen GOP senators in recent weeks cast the race between John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Thune (R-S.D.) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.) as wholly undecided. Among the factors making senators hesitant to openly endorse a candidate: more candidates might still hop in the race; members want to see how the Senate elections shake out; and they want to see who the president will be come January. Still, with months of courting underway, senators told us they don’t yet see an obvious runaway candidate. “They're all serious people. It's not like there's a one-off or a gadfly that's not going to get votes,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said. “They're all going to be people in double-digit numbers.” “It's very wide open. It’s very fluid,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. Winning the secret-ballot GOP leadership vote — which is expected to occur in the weeks after the November elections — will require willing over a majority of the conference. That means there could be multiple rounds of voting, with the lowest vote-getter dropping out until one senator garners sufficient support. With multiple candidates in the race splitting the vote — and ideological factions of the conference split on what they want from a leader — a number of GOP senators told us they think it’s unlikely the election is settled on the first ballot. One Senate Republican, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly describe the race, suspects that “[Thune] has more votes in his whip tally — more firm votes — than anybody else.” Still, this senator said, Thune isn’t yet “that close” to crossing the majority threshold needed to win the role of leader. Countered Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), one of two senators to publicly endorse the South Dakotan: “There's still a lot of room, but I think at this point, it's definitely Thune’s to lose.” But other senators told us they’re taking their time, meeting with the candidates and weighing their options. “I'm looking at John Cornyn and John Thune, but I've not chosen between the two of them,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “I think a lot of people honestly are having conversations with people who are running and trying to get a feel for it,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.). “I don't know how it gets into focus really until the fall.” As for the other candidates who might hop in, the window is closing. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the NRSC chair, was the subject of rampant speculation earlier this year that former President Donald Trump might back him if Republicans have a good Election Night. But our colleague Jonathan Martin recently reported that Daines may back Thune instead in exchange for a new role in leadership. Another subject of the rumor mill — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) — told us a leader run has “never ever crossed my mind” and praised Scott as his “home state colleague, and I think he would be a very good leader.” Stopping short of an endorsement, Rubio also praised Thune and Cornyn: “We’re blessed to have really good people. They’re all great.” The real X factor, however, is the potentially large corps of new Republican senators who might be joining the conference after the election. Between retirements and competitive races, there might be as many as 11 new faces if the GOP can run the table in November. As Kennedy put it: “I think it’s going to take us a while to work it out.” — Ursula Perano and Jordain Carney GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill. We’re wishing safe travels to all of our readers who are out and about this August recess — and hope that Tropical Storm Debby stays out of your way.   During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more.     THE FLIP SIDE: SCHUMER’S FALL Fret not, we also checked in with Democrats before the break. Though there’s no race to succeed Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer hanging over the latter half of the year, there is a government funding deadline coming up on Sept. 30. At a news conference last week, Schumer said avoiding a shutdown would require members to “work hard” and that it’s “going to take bipartisanship to avert a shutdown, as it always does.” Schumer also waded into his agenda if Democrats retain the Senate majority in the next Congress. In that scenario, he said, he will be eyeing action on legislation addressing democracy, the child tax credit, clean energy, transportation and more. “If you look, the last time Democrats had all three places that deal with legislation — the president, the House and the Senate — we passed more good legislation than we have in decades,” Schumer said. “If you look at what we did there, you'll see us do many things in that regard in the next Congress should we have the House, Senate and presidency.” “Which I believe we will,” he added. — Ursula Perano   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     THE CPC’S LIGHT TOUCH Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was hardly a progressive when he served in the House, representing one of the most conservative Democratic-held districts in the House from 2007 to 2019. Yet the two-term governor quickly emerged as a favorite of the left amid Vice President Kamala Harris’ crash search for a running mate. He was, in fact, the first choice of Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who had personally urged Harris’s team to select him. Jayapal and Walz weren’t close when he was in the House. But since he became a “bold” and “progressive” governor, she’s been a big fan. And when she endorsed him for veep on the steps of the Capitol in late July, Walz immediately sent her a text to say thanks. They kept in touch after that, right up until he was picked. A subtle nudge: Jayapal praised Walz’s focus on what she called economic populism and said she was “very careful” in her nudges to Harris’s team: “I wanted to give the vice president the opportunity to make her pick ... and I wanted to make sure that we were coalescing support around who I thought would be the strongest.” She had a three-pronged pitch: “We need somebody who's gonna win in the Midwest. We need somebody who's gonna be 150 percent behind a working class agenda. ... And we need somebody who has real experience as a governor in implementing these policies. And I think he has all of that.” The rest of the Progressive Caucus agreed: Within hours of Walz’ announcement, the PAC voted to formalize their endorsement of the Harris-Walz ticket. — Sarah Ferris HUDDLE HOTDISH Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) is being totally forgotten in the Diet Mountain Dew discourse. Don’t miss WSJ’s A-hed on the one thing Vance and Walz can agree on. Former Rep. David Price (D-N.C.) gets an interchange. QUICK LINKS  A group close to House Democrats is spending nearly $1 million to wade into Mary Peltola’s primary, via Ally Mutnick Cori Bush becomes second Squad member ousted in a primary, from Nick 3 big takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries: An incumbent loss, Trump’s endorsement power and more, from Nick, Madison Fernandez and Ally Sea turtles strandings have increased dramatically. Congress might create a fund to bail them out, by Patrick Whittle at the Boston Globe Staunch progressive or lifelong moderate? Tim Walz’s allies say he’s neither — or both, from Sam Brodey at the Boston Globe TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House and Senate are out. THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL Quiet, we beg. TRIVIA TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Ted Thompson was the first to correctly answer that then-Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) started the congressional hotdish competition. TODAY’S QUESTION, from Ted: Where did President Lincoln and his family spend their summers to get relief from the heat and smells of Washington?  The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.   Follow us

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