UKRAINE DYNAMICS Biden-Zelenskyy call: There's a dispute over what was said and reportedly said from each side . Is an invasion certain or probable? Would it be in February or March? The key point to know, rather than the specific phrasing, is that there's some form of disagreement on the likelihood and imminence of a Russian ground invasion, and that Kyiv is worried about the impact of loose words on their economy and morale. American public evenly split on Ukraine responsibility: A YouGov poll found 35 percent of respondents thought the "U.S. has a responsibility to protect Ukraine" while 33 percent did not agree, and the remaining third were not sure. Along party lines, 44 percent of Democrats favored U.S. responsibility, compared to 36 percent of Republicans. Germans against arming Ukraine: The German government has been mocked for refusing Kyiv's requests for arms and protective equipment (save for 5,000 helmets — yay!), but Berlin is matching the public mood. Pollster YouGov found that 59 percent of German respondents agree with their government's reluctant position, and only 20 percent were in favor of supplying defensive weapons. GROUND FORCES It's not (just) about the Javelins, stupid: If Ukraine wants to hold off Russia, it will need bomb shelters and blood supplies , as well as fuel reinforcements and some protection against cyberattacks. The government hopes to "train 130,000 new defenders and community-level volunteer units to defend its towns and villages. Ukraine's Defense Ministry said territorial defense brigades have 70 percent of their capabilities, and their command structure will be implemented in a month," reported Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch. Meanwhile, Russian equipment and troops continue to flow into Belarus, and medics are heading to the Ukraine border: 10 Russian army groups now virtually encircle Ukraine ( see map from Konrad Muzkya). The troops in Belarus are nowhere near known training areas. COALITION OF THE CHILLING: Top U.S. diplomats are focusing almost exclusively on Ukraine, but they're not limiting themselves to the country's cold northern neighbors. Outreach to countries like Brazil, India, Japan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates is also happening. Meanwhile in Asia … the Washington Post's Josh Rogin reminds us that there's a lot of troubling action in the region that's supposed to occupy more American attention these days. North Korea launched ballistic missiles for the sixth time this month. China flew 39 warplanes in Taiwan's direction, and Iran, China and Russia held joint military drills in the Indian Ocean this week. And don't forget Iran: Mike Doran and Bryan Clark in a Wall Street Journal op-ed argue that the Ukraine crisis exposes a flaw in President Biden's Iran strategy — Washington engages with Beijing and Moscow as if they share core U.S. interests with respect to Iran, when instead they are working with Tehran to undermine the American-led global order. CYBER FORCES Ukraine expects a major cyberattack ahead of any invasion or bombing. But it's not only cyberattacks that we need to look for. THE KREMLIN'S DISINFORMATION APPARATUS IS OUT IN FULL FORCE. State-backed media is claiming NATO is planning chemical weapons attacks on Russian troops, and that NATO troops are massing at the Russian border. More here. "There's an alignment of interests between the U.S. far right and the Russian government," per Bret Schafer, head of the information manipulation team at the German Marshall Fund's Alliance for Security Democracy. The underlying message of the Kremlin's propaganda machine and far-right online messaging is that Vladimir Putin is the peacemaker, while Western leaders are looking for war. POLITICO global tech correspondent Mark Scott calculates that Western counter-messaging is making barely one-tenth of that impact online. So far, the West does not have an adequate game plan to respond. SANCTIONS CORNER Where do U.S. Congressional sanctions efforts stand? A group of eight Senators from both parties are working to draft a filibuster-proof bill to pass the upper chamber and, eventually, the House. Sen. Robert Menendez's (D-N.J.) "mother of all sanctions" legislation was the starting point for the talks. Here's what those compromises look like now, as of Thursday evening. Which Russian sanctions could work best Global consequences of war in Ukraine, per The Economist's judgment. AFGHANISTAN — LOST IN TRANSLATION: In a U.S.-Europe joint statement on Afghanistan issued after a meeting of special envoys from six nations and the EU in Oslo, Norway, the parties said "that their meetings with the Taliban in no way implied any sense of official recognition or legitimization of the interim government announced by the Taliban in September 2021." Reality check: The meetings may not have legal weight, or meet a diplomatic criteria of legitimization, but any regular person reading that statement would think recognition is exactly what the meetings imply. CANADA — COVID "FREEDOM CONVOY": Truckers and supportive protesters unhappy with Canada's Covid rules are making their way to the capital Ottawa, expecting to arrive today in advance of a major event on Saturday. Erin O'Toole, Canada's Conservative opposition leader, called them "heroes ," and says he will meet with some of them. More in POLITICO's Ottawa Playbook. Police estimated the convoy's size at 1,200 vehicles — more than enough to clog downtown Ottawa. Tamara Lich , one of the organizers, insists the convoy comes in peace. "I just want to put it out there that nobody in this convoy will be inciting violence or uttering threats. That is not what we're here to do," she said in a Facebook video. Police are preparing for chaos, counter-protests and violence. FRANCE — INDO-PACIFIC PLAY: France will roll out the red carpet in Paris in February for 30 Indo-Pacific foreign ministers, including heavyweights Japan and India along with small archipelagos like Comoros and Micronesia — but China or Pakistan aren't invited. All of the key American strategic partners in the region are in, plus the whole of ASEAN, except junta-run Myanmar. Several countries who participated in China's Belt and Road project, before becoming critical of it, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Papua New Guinea, are also on the list. French diplomats told my colleagues in Brussels they expect announcements under the banner of Global Gateway, the EU's $350 billion answer to Belt and Road. Small islands play a big role: With a population of more than 1 million French citizens living on French territories in the Pacific, France is keen to draw the sub-region into EU diplomacy networks. France is also inviting the United Arab Emirates, Kenya, South Africa, Madagascar and Djibouti. INDONESIA — HOW TO MOVE A SINKING, POLLUTED CAPITAL. Jakarta won't be Jakarta as we know it in a few decades: not a city of 10 million, nor the capital of the fourth-most populous nation on Earth. The reason: One-third of the city may be underwater by 2050. Hallowed high ground: officials and engineers are looking at building a new city, some 1,300 miles northeast of the current capital. The goal: "Build a smart new city, a new city that is competitive at the global level … for the transformation ... toward an Indonesia based on innovation and technology based on a green economy," President Joko Widodo told Parliament. The numbers: 1.5 million civil servants will be relocated. The committee overseeing construction includes Abu Dhabi's crown prince Sheik Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan; billionaire Masayoshi Son, founder & CEO of SoftBank; and former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair. h/t Leslie Griffin The name: Nusantara — an old Javanese term meaning archipelago. SOUTH KOREA — PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE'S WIFE THREATENS JAIL FOR CRITICAL JOURNALISTS: Kim Keon-hee, wife of the conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, lost a court bid to prevent a television station from broadcasting recordings of her conversations with a journalist in which she promised to jail critical journalists, and suggested that women who claim they are sex assault victims do so for money. PERU — FEELS THE POLITICAL AND ECOLOGICAL AFTERSHOCKS OF TONGA'S ERUPTION: If the volcanic devastation in Tonga was crushing, but the effects on the other side of the world were also real, Frida Ghitis writes. "Several countries issued alerts to warn their populations of potential tsunamis — including Ecuador and Chile, Peru's neighbors … Peruvian authorities, however, said there was no tsunami risk." Tell that to the Peruvian women swept out to sea to their deaths when the waves hit. Then there's the oil spill that occured, which embattled President Pedro Castillo (approval rating 28 percent) eventually labeled an " ecocide," and attempted to shift blame to Repsol, the Italian company that owned the spilled oil. TRADE — EU LAUNCHES WTO CASE AGAINST CHINA OVER ITS TARGETING OF LITHUANIA: The EU has launched a World Trade Organization case against what European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis labeled China's "discriminatory trade practices against Lithuania," which he said "threaten (the) integrity of EU Single Market, affecting trade and supply chains." Germany worked behind the scenes to stop this from happening. Remind me why there's a trade war: Lithuania's showdown with China kicked off in May when Vilnius pulled out of the 17 + 1 diplomatic format in which Beijing engages with Central and Eastern European countries. Tensions escalated when Taipei and Vilnius set up diplomatic offices in each other's country. Beijing's next target is Slovenia: China has terminated contracts with Slovenian businesses and pulled out of investment deals after Janez Jansa, the country's prime minister, promised to build closer ties with Taiwan. Slovenia was part of President Xi Jinping's Belt and Road infrastructure network, but Beijing now accuses it of "openly challenging the One China policy and making dangerous remarks supporting Taiwan's independence," said Zhao Lijian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson. CLIMATE — OIL AND GAS LEASE NIXED OVER GREEN SHORTCUT: A U.S. judge has annulled the U.S. Interior Department's November oil and gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico for failing to properly account for its climate impact. WORK — SALARY TRANSPARENCY IS COMING TO AMERICA: In much of the world, when a position is advertised as vacant, a salary range is published with the job advert (in Norway no salary is secret ). That sort of transparency is virtually non-existent in the United States, outside of employers bragging they now pay $15 an hour for low-salary positions. Change is coming. A new New York City law taking effect in May will force employers to advertise the minimum and maximum salary of a given position. Given New York is the world's financial and media capital, that's a big deal. You won't have to crowdsource information via services such as Glassdoor and other online forums if this trend takes off.
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