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Jan 31, 2022 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. It's Monday, which means the House of Commons is in session and trucks are clogging downtown streets. We get into what it all means, and also unveil a Trudeau Power Matrix that charts the biggest influencers on the Hill.

Driving the Day

THEY'RE BAAAAAACK The House is back this morning, and the projected order of business portends a regular sitting inside the chamber. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH's itinerary offered hints of what's to come — namely, a round of tributes to ALEXA MCDONOUGH and the promised take-note debate on Ukraine.

What's not clear is how many MPs will physically enter West Block. They do have a choice to attend virtually, and Omicron's continuing wrath means many will opt for Zoom. But as angry protesters enter the third day of their big-rig sit-in on Wellington Street, the demonstration enters a new phase.

What will their honking and clogging of the downtown core mean for the elected officials who need to get past them to do their jobs, and the community of Hill workers who make the whole place tick?

AN ANGRY WEEKEND — There were definitely a lot of innocent smiles on Wellington over the weekend. Thousands of sanguine protesters seemed in awe of all the like-minded Canadians swelling in front of the Parliament buildings. They were almost entirely non-violent. They were there to make a point.

But then there were the others. The ones who danced atop the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, parked in front of and urinated on the National War Memorial, dressed up the Terry Fox statue in paraphernalia (and urinated a few feet away from that, too), waltzed into the downtown Rideau Centre without masks (and paraded maskless through other malls), threatened baristas, berated journalists and tossed a beer can at CTV's EVAN SOLOMON, bullied their way into nabbing meals from a Shepherds of Good Hope shelter, and claimed to be motivated by love as they waved countless "F--k Trudeau" flags.

— The "freedom" to hate: On Sunday morning, CBC's TRAVIS DHANRAJ asked a trucker sitting in his cab parked directly in front of Parliament — his name was Mike — to comment on the dark side of the protests. Mike characterized all the misbehavior as "a pro and a con." Dhanraj asked him to elaborate.

"It's a pro because we should be allowed to make bad decisions. That's just what freedom is about — people being able to make decisions we don't always agree with."

The apparent goals of the protest were wide-ranging. Some were opposed to the vaccine mandate imposed on cross-border truckers, others were opposed to all vaccine mandates, still others were opposed to vaccines. Everyone was opposed to Justin Trudeau. The convoy's official goal was to unseat the government, aided by Governor General MARY SIMON and the Senate.

For the record, damaging war memorials is a criminal offense. The Harper Conservatives passed that law, and police have enforced it at the National War Memorial.

— The big gamble: It was clear from the jump that Conservative politicians were in the trickiest position politically as truck convoys barreled toward Ottawa. Steer clear of endorsing the movement — which formally called for the undemocratic removal of the Liberal government — and they risked alienating a lot of potential voters. Go all in on the convoy, and they'd risk wearing anything that went sideways.

ERIN O'TOOLE posed with some truckers in his Royal Canadian Air Force jacket. PIERRE POILIEVRE timed a welcome video to the arrival of a convoy in the National Capital Region. LESLYN LEWIS made her presence known, as did JEREMY PATZER. MICHAEL COOPER stood up for the crowd on the Hill. DAMIEN KUREK was up there, too, along with MARTIN SHIELDS. Facebook public policy wonk RACHEL CURRAN, a former senior STEPHEN HARPER staffer, tweeted about the "festive" atmosphere in Ottawa (before deleting her account ).

Tory MPs, including O'Toole , did condemn some of the reprehensible stuff. DAN ALBAS called out the unpleasantness at the Terry Fox statue. MARTY MORANTZ and MELISSA LANTSMAN, among many others, decried the swastikas visible at regular intervals.

But the convoy's official website boasted about the maskless protesters who happily marched through local malls. They're planning another mall demonstration today. And journalists dug up all kinds of past statements from the mouths of the march's leading lights. PAT KING, for instance, openly espoused white supremacist views in 2019.

— Other weird misinformation: Mike the trucker claimed 2.5 million protesters were in Ottawa. King insisted that JUSTIN TRUDEAU had "fled" to Tofino. Both were, it's fair to say, extremely laughable claims. ( This was not 2.5 million people.)

— Food for thought: Tory rabble-rouser STEPHEN TAYLOR mused about who gained the most over the weekend: "I think that this protest on Parliament Hill helps Justin Trudeau more than it hurts him."

— Trudeau's whereabouts: Those were officially undisclosed. The PM's Saturday itinerary mentioned only a meeting with the Centre culturel islamique de Québec on the National Day of Remembrance of the Quebec City Mosque Attack and Action against Islamophobia.

(No, he wasn't in Tofino. He's holding a virtual presser this morning, and the Pacific Ocean won't be in the background.)

Related reading: JUSTIN LING in the Daily Beast — "They're here, they're honking, they think vaccines are dangerous. Welcome to the overlords of Ottawa."

— SUPRIYA DWIVEDI in the Toronto Star : "Our unfortunate reality is that one of the two parties in regular contention to form government has sitting, prominent members who spew all sorts of conspiracy theory nonsense and have spent the better part of the last decade either disregarding the more troubling aspects of their voter base, or trying to directly pander to them."

Tories might claim that's all "liberal media" mumbo jumbo, but pollsters with representative samples will almost certainly reveal unflattering opinions of the weekend's events — much of which was available unfiltered on social media. What will that mean for federal Tories?

— The biggest questions: Conservatives have spent years condemning DONALD TRUMP's rhetoric — the same former U.S. president who gave a shout out to Canadian truckers at a Saturday night rally. At what point do those who boosted the protest reconsider their support or rhetoric? How much do they double down on all the anger? And what happens when the convoy mostly decamps for regular life away from the Hill?

Even if many protesters were arguably harmless, what conclusions will most Canadians draw from their living rooms? Will they remember the milquetoast flag-waving? Or will they be thinking about how many bad apples it takes to ruin the orchard?

ASK US ANYTHING

What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Send it all our way.

AROUND THE HILL

THE TRUDEAU MATRIX — The defining word on the Hill in 2022 is uncertainty. When will Covid stop dictating our every move? What will come of the Liberal agenda, forged in last year's election and refined in mandate letters? How long will inflation persist? And what about JUSTIN TRUDEAU's future as PM? Will this be the year he at least hints at an exit strategy?

That's a lot of variables, and fodder for countless Playbooks to come. As MPs return to Ottawa, POLITICO Canada's team has plotted out the 32 parliamentarians and players who'll hold sway in 2022 as the prime minister works to define his legacy.

Key staffers. Senior Cabinet ministers. Opposition leaders. Watchdogs. World leaders. Activists. Everybody wants influence. The Trudeau Matrix explains who actually has it, and why they're key to the PM's eventual legacy.

— Who's got the power? Playbook will spend the rest of the week considering who holds sway in Trudeau's Ottawa. Prepare yourself for BOLD-FACED NAMES.

Don't just sit there. Tell us who you think are the most powerful people in Ottawa that fly under the radar.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU will speak with P.E.I. Premier DENNIS KING at some point Monday.

9:30 a.m. House Leader Mark Holland will hold a presser to talk about what's ahead this sitting. ICYMI, here's AMANDA CONNOLLY of Global News with a look at Trudeau's first-100-days to-do list.

11 a.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH will hold a press conference.

11:15 a.m. Trudeau will hold a press conference.

12:45 p.m. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA, Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU, Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and International Trade Minister MARY NG will host a national supply chain summit to search for input to strengthen the flow of goods in and across Canada.

— ZI-ANN LUM writes: Images of bare grocery store displays and higher meat prices make for effective political fodder, but oversimplify issues long on industry radars. These issues include the treatment of temporary foreign workers during the pandemic, gaps in disaster relief for livestock and farming following severe droughts and Covid-19 absenteeism.

— Defense Minister ANITA ANAND is on the ground in Ukraine, where Global Affairs has withdrawn non-essential personnel from Canada's embassy. Anand will meet withmilitary personnel deployed on Operation UNIFIER. She'll also meet her Ukrainian counterpart, OLEKSII REZNIKOV.

HOUSE BUSINESS

Elections Canada will table its report on the 44th General Election.

The House is back and many committees are scheduled to meet in camera this week to discuss the months ahead. In camera today: human resources, foreign affairs, official languages, heritage, national defense and international trade.

The Hill Times' LAURA RYCKEWAERT shares a sweep of committee to-do lists.

11 a.m. The House finance committee begins pre-budget consultations.YVES GIROUX, parliamentary budget officer, is among witnesses on the roster, which includes the Canadian Mental Health Association, Green Budget Coalition, Teamsters Canada and others.

11 a.m. The House ethics committee meets to discuss business.

11 a.m. The House agriculture and agri-food committee will receive a briefing on the status of the British Columbia flood recovery effort.

2 p.m. Trudeau will attend question period.

3:15 p.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH's agenda includes a speech as part of a House of Commons tribute to the late ALEXA MCDONOUGH.

3:30 p.m. The House natural resources committee will hear from the Auditor General's Office as they study the Emissions Reduction Fund — Onshore Program. Officials from the David Suzuki Foundation, Edmonton Global and Environmental Defence Canada will also be on hand.

6:30 p.m. In the second part of its meeting the Special Committee on Afghanistan will hear from the International Committee of the Red Cross, UNICEF and the World Food Programme. INDRIKA RATWATTE of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees will also attend.

6:30 p.m. Trudeau will participate in the evening take-note debate on the situation in Ukraine. Singh will make remarks at approximately 7 p.m.

MEDIA ROOM

CHANTAL HÉBERT explains how DOUG FORD's victory in Ontario this spring could help cement Trudeau's social policy legacy.

— BRUCE WOOD was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer's when he was 56. On TVO's The Agenda, his wife, former Cabinet minister LISA RAITT, talks candidly with STEVE PAIKIN about her family's battle.

— Bloomberg's DAVID GEORGE-COSH looks at the cannabis companies lobbying the federal government as the law that legalized pot comes up for review.

"The Battle for the World's Most Powerful Cyberweapon," by NYT Magazine's RONEN BERGMAN and MARK MAZZETTI. (h/t POLITICO Playbook)

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Bloc MP LUC THÉRIAULT. HBD + 1 to JOHN WILLIAMSON and OVIDE MERCREDI. DAVID WEISZ, a data journalist and director of the StoryLab at Humber College, also celebrates. HBD + 2 to ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN, GINELLA MASSA and AL DUERR.

ALORA celebrating her "9-month birthday!" Tweeted mom, MP LAUREL COLLINS: "I hope her smile can be a small antidote to the pandemic-fatigue/convoy-protest/doom scrolling."

Birthdays or other social notices for the Playbook community? Send them our way.

Spotted: Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations MARC MILLER taking down — in his words — "a pattern of denialism and distortion that has coloured the discourse on Residential Schools in Canada." In response, NIIGAANWEWIDAM SINCLAIR observed: "This is a remarkable thread … really an unprecedented series of statements by a minister of Indigenous affairs."

U.S. ambo to Canada DAVID COHEN, fulfilling a pledge to don a Canadian soccer jersey after his American side went down in a decisive defeat on Sunday.

Movers and shakers: ROBERTO CHAVEZ is now a senior associate at Sussex Strategy Group. He previously worked as leg assistant for MP MARK GERRETSEN.… MALA KHANNA joins Canadian Heritage as an associate deputy minister.

Farewells: HARRY STEELE, the former president of Newcap Capital Corporation, died Friday. Premier ANDREW FUREY called him an icon in Newfoundland & Labrador. "A giant of NL and Canada," tweeted Summa Strategies chairperson TIM POWERS. "A prince of a human being. A true gentleman!"

INU MANAK announced that she is leaving the Cato Institute. Destination: TBA.

PROZONE

— For subscribers: Here's our lookahead memo featuring a super-sized events calendar: The week ahead: Pandemonium vs. Trudeau's priorities.

— USMCA update: DOUG PALMER, POLITICO's senior global trade and economics reporter, says USTR officials expect to hear by Thursday how Canada plans to comply with a USMCA panel ruling against its system for allocating tariff-rate quotas for imports of U.S. cheese, milk powders, ice cream and other dairy products.

"We are confident we will be able to meet the findings of the panel, and we continue to work closely with industry and partners to reach a solution," Global Affairs Canada spokesperson ALICE HANSEN tells Palmer. "We are actively working with the United States to resolve this. While we don't have an update on timing, we are working to get this right."

— Parliament preview: Check out ANDY BLATCHFORD's What You Need to Know about the 44th Parliament: A Pro Analysis made for easy download. In case you need it: Our printable poster of the Trudeau Cabinet.

— In other headlines for Pros: 

Biden calls on Fed to put the fire out as inflation rages.
Q&A with Eric Fanning of the Aerospace Industries Association.
The stakes in New York's cryptocurrency moratorium.
Biden's diplomats are flooding the zone on Russia. But even some allies aren't convinced.
European Commission to propose Chips Act to 'balance power' in microchips market.

TRIVIA

Friday's answer: Several readers guessed a pair of colorful Newfoundlanders — JOHN CROSBIE and BRIAN TOBIN — slapped a fish on the desk of a prime minister.

But the answer was JIM FULTON. On Oct. 16, 1985 , the outspoken B.C. New Democrat concluded a question about the possession of salmon by whipping one out and plopping it in front of then-PM BRIAN MULRONEY.

Hansard made the whole episode sound rather civil: "Where upon Mr. Fulton crossed the floor and placed a salmon on the Prime Minister's desk."

Props to ALAN KAN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ANNE-MARIE STACEY, GORD MCINTOSH, GERRY THORNE, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, BRAM ABRAMSON, and J.D.M. STEWART.

Today's question: Who used these words to observe the death of TERRY FOX: "It occurs very rarely in the life of a nation that the courageous spirit of one person unites all people in the celebration of his life and in the mourning of his death. ...We do not think of him as one who was defeated by misfortune but as one who inspired us with the example of the triumph of the human spirit over adversity." 

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

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