Trump floats pardons for Jan. 6 defendants

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Jan 30, 2022 View in browser   By Tara Palmeri Presented by Former President Donald Trump throws a cap into the audience during his arrival at the 'Save America' rally in Conroe, Texas, on Saturday, Jan. 29. | Brandon Bell/Getty Images DRIVING THE DAY At a Houston-area rally on Saturday night, former President DONALD TRUMP offered the clearest indication yet of what to expect from him in a potential 2024 campaign and a second Trump term in the White House. "If I run and if I win, we will treat those people from January 6th fairly," Trump said. "And if it requires pardons, we will give them pardons, because they are being treated so unfairly." ( Video here) — The practical implications: Trump's comments "could have an effect on the Justice Department's ongoing criminal prosecution of more than 725 — and counting — members of the mob who breached the Capitol or attacked police outside, particularly in cases which are likely to carry stiff sentences that extend past President JOE BIDEN's first term," writes Kyle Cheney . "Though the majority of those charged are facing misdemeanor charges with sentences that are likely to run their course before Trump could potentially reclaim the Oval Office, hundreds of those facing conspiracy, obstruction and assault charges could receive sentences that land them in prison for years. Trump's hint that he may pardon people his supporters claim have been treated 'unfairly' could become a calculus in their decisions to accept plea deals or enter into negotiations with prosecutors." — The political implications: Republicans have openly mused about whether to offer a positive agenda in the 2022 campaign, as NYT's Annie Karni recently reported. Earlier this month, Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL was asked what the party's agenda would be if it recaptured Congress, and quipped "I'll let you know when we take it back." But consider this: If Republicans don't offer an agenda of their own, doesn't that make it more likely that the party's message will be defined by Trump? It's not hard to imagine "pardons for Jan. 6 defendants" becoming a new MAGA litmus test. House Republicans booted Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) from leadership because she wouldn't stop talking about Jan. 6. At the time, Republican Study Committee Chairman JIM BANKS (R-Ind.) said that GOP members "are unified behind a single mission of winning back the majority and it was clear from the way that the vote occurred that 99% of our members are focused on that, so it's time to move on." It's clear that Trump isn't moving on. Will the MAGA base? Will the GOP? And how will that affect the party's ability to retake the House? Is there any chance that House Republicans distance themselves from the former president, or will this be yet another confirmation that it's Trump's party now? On that topic, two good reads: AP's Jill Colvin: Earlier this week, Trump referred to himself as the "45th and 47th" president. But there are "growing challenges he's confronting as a series of complex legal investigations ensnare him, his family and many associates," ahead of a potential 2024 run, and "his popularity among Republicans is declining somewhat." WaPo's Dan Balz: "[T]here are signs that, since the assault on the Capitol last year, [Trump's] support within the party may not be quite as robust as it once was. … Since October 2020, he has lost 26 points among White Republicans without college degrees [when asked whether they consider themselves more to be supporters of the party or of Trump,] and 21 points among conservative Republicans. He has lost 18 points among Republican men and 17 points among Republican women. He has lost 23 points among Republicans ages 65 and older and 19 points among White evangelical Republicans." Many more numbers at the link   A message from The American Beverage Association: At America's beverage companies our plastic bottles are made to be remade. We're carefully designing them to be 100% recyclable, including the caps—so every bottle can become a new one. That means less plastic waste in our environment. Please help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org   Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.  THREE TOP SUNDAY READS 1. "Democratic National Committee Chair JAIME HARRISON is frustrated, isolated and trapped in a job he long thought he wanted, according to party insiders, a dynamic driven by escalating tensions with the White House over his role," report NBC's Natasha Korecki, Jonathan Allen and Lauren Egan. — A few interesting details: (1) White House Deputy Chief of Staff JEN O'MALLEY DILLON is making "key decisions" for the DNC; (2) Harrison is reportedly "not flying to meet with donors or visiting DNC headquarters" in Washington, and has "mostly stayed in his home state of South Carolina," frustrating the White House; (3) Harrison "has been frustrated enough to consider an escape route to depart before the midterms," but wants to run for JIM CLYBURN's seat once the majority whip retires, and "can't make any move that would be perceived as harmful to the party or the president." — Harrison's response: "To unnamed sources … if you expect me to go away or roll into a ball and whimper… you picked the wrong one," he wrote in a lengthy Twitter thread. (Worth noting: he didn't contest the reporting, only the sniping at him.) 2. While Democrats have often decried the use of dark money in campaigns, during the 2020 elections, they "embraced it with fresh zeal, pulling even with and, by some measures, surpassing Republicans in 2020 spending," NYT's Kenneth Vogel and Shane Goldmacher report. Their analysis shows that "15 of the most politically active nonprofit organizations that generally align with the Democratic Party spent more than $1.5 billion in 2020 — compared to roughly $900 million spent by a comparable sample of 15 of the most politically active groups aligned with the G.O.P. The findings reveal the growth and ascendancy of a shadow political infrastructure that is reshaping American politics, as megadonors to these nonprofits take advantage of loose disclosure laws to make multimillion-dollar outlays in total secrecy." 3. All eyes on Pennsylvania: Two stories from the Keystone State's high-profile U.S. Senate race. — CONOR LAMB falls just short of Penn. Dems' endorsement: "The Pennsylvania Democratic Party declined to throw its weight behind a candidate in the primary for the state's open Senate seat at a meeting in Harrisburg on Saturday," our Holly Otterbein reports. "The non-endorsement is a disappointment for Conor Lamb, who has been trailing behind primary frontrunner JOHN FETTERMAN, the lieutenant governor, in polls and fundraising." BUT: "Lamb demonstrated that he has a significant amount of support in the state party regardless. The nod required winning at least two-thirds of the votes of state committee people, and Lamb fell just short of that threshold. He finished in first place with 61 percent of the vote on a second ballot. Fetterman took second place, garnering 23 percent of ballots." — Another GOP straw poll goes poorly for MEHMET OZ: Republican Senate candidate DAVE MCCORMICK won the latest round of southwestern PA straw polls this weekend with the support of 35 members of the Republican State Committee — more three times as many as JEFF BARTOS who won 11. MEHMET OZ came in third place with seven votes, and CARLA SANDS was fourth with six. Pennlive reports that this breaks Bartos' string of early wins in GOP regional straw polls. SUNDAY BEST … Senate Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) on a potential Supreme Court nominee who has recently appeared before Congress, on NBC's "Meet the Press": "If there are no new developments for someone who's been before the committee in the previous year or two, it makes a real difference. I can just say this: it's going to be fair, it's going to be deliberate and we're going to be timely about it too." Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on his preference for the SCOTUS nominee on CBS' "Face the Nation": "In the history of our country we've only had five women serve and two African-American men. So let's make the court more like America. But qualifications have to be the biggest consideration, and as to MICHELLE CHILDS, I think she's qualified by every measure." ( More from Quint Forgey) Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine) on Trump's potential pardons of Jan. 6 participants, on ABC's "This Week": "Well, we're a long ways from 2024. But let me say this, I do not think … that President Trump should have made that pledge to do pardons. We should let the judicial process proceed." — On whether she would support a potential Trump 2024 run: "Well, certainly, it's not likely, given the many other qualified candidates that we have [who] have expressed interest in running. So it's very unlikely." New Hampshire GOP Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU on Trump's potential pardons, on CNN's "State of the Union": "The folks that were part of the riots and, frankly, the assault on the U.S. Capitol have to be held accountable. There's [the] rule of law. I don't care whether you were part of the burning — burning cities in Antifa in 2020, [or] you were storming the Capitol in 2021. Everybody needs to be held fairly accountable. … That's part of leadership." Senate Foreign Relations Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) on Congress' response to Russia, on CNN's "State of the Union": "There is an incredible bipartisan resolve for support of Ukraine and an incredibly strong bipartisan resolve to have severe consequences for Russia if it invades Ukraine, and, in some cases, for what it has already done. … What we are devising … these are sanctions beyond any that we have ever levied before … And I think that that sends a very clear message." — Foreign Relations ranking member JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), on timing for the sanctions: "I'm more than cautiously optimistic at this point that, when we get back to D.C. [Monday], that we're going to be moving forward."   A message from The American Beverage Association: America's beverage companies are working together to reduce our industry's plastic footprint by investing in efforts to get our plastic bottles back. Our goal is for every bottle to become a new one, so they don't end up in our oceans, rivers and landfills. EveryBottleback.org   JOIN US — On Monday at noon, Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO will join White House correspondent Laura Barrón-López for a virtual Women Rule interview on POLITICO Live. The interview will cover Raimondo's first year in the Biden administration, her role in pushing some key legislation, including Build Back Better and the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, and her path to Washington from working in venture capital and serving as Rhode Island governor. RSVP here to watch live BIDEN'S SUNDAY: — 5:20 p.m.: The Bidens will leave the White House for Mount Vernon, Va., arriving at 5:30 p.m. — 6 p.m.: The Bidens will attend the National Governors Association's Black Tie Dinner. — 7:25 p.m.: The Bidens will leave Mount Vernon, arriving back at the White House at 7:35 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS' SUNDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.   BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER:  The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.     PHOTO OF THE DAY A stranded motorist gets help shoveling out their car in Providence, R.I., after a powerful nor'easter swept up the East Coast on Saturday, Jan. 29. | David Goldman/AP Photo PLAYBOOK READS JUDICIARY SQUARE THE PUSH TO RETIRE BREYER — WaPo's Matt Viser, Tyler Pager, Seung Min Kim and Robert Barnes dive deep on the effort to pressure Justice STEPHEN BREYER into retiring while Democrats control the White House and Senate. Two especially interesting nuggets:  1. "With the Senate split 50-50 and Vice President [KAMALA] HARRIS's tiebreaking vote giving Democrats the majority, Democrats also worried about the fragile health of their own members. In fact, Breyer himself became alarmed last year when Sen. PAT LEAHY (D-Vt.) was briefly hospitalized after Biden's inauguration, according to a person close to Breyer who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic." 2. CHARLES BREYER on his brother: " Of course he was aware of this ["retire, Breyer"] campaign. I think what impressed him was not the campaign but the logic of the campaign. And he thought he should take into account the fact that this was an opportunity for a Democratic president — and he was appointed by a Democratic president — to fill his position with someone who is like-minded." Also: "He did not want to die on the bench." RACE AND REPRESENTATION — The prospect of the first Black woman on the Supreme Court has prompted complicated emotions for "the small, elite group of Black women lawyers and judges," report NYT's Tariro Mzezewa and Audra Burch . "Now, for the first time in their lives, someone who looks like them — and likely experienced similar career challenges — could ascend to the Supreme Court and rule on issues foundational to American lives, from voting and abortion rights to health care and affirmative action. … But along with that excitement is frustration that it has taken more than two centuries for this moment to arrive. And Black women in the legal community are bracing for the possibility that the yet-to-be-named nominee will be judged unfairly as an affirmative action appointment." — On that note: Here's Mississippi Sen. ROGER WICKER during a radio interview on Friday : "The irony is that the Supreme Court is at the very same time hearing cases about this sort of affirmative racial discrimination, while adding someone who is the beneficiary of this sort of quota." Those remarks prompted fierce pushback from the White House, as WaPo's Brady Dennis reports. BITTER CONFIRMATION BATTLE BREWING — In 1994, the Senate confirmed Breyer to the Supreme Court in an 87-9 vote. President Biden's nominee to be his successor is unlikely to win such approval. NYT's Carl Hulse writes that the prospect they'll receive "only Democratic votes is hardly far-fetched, given the bitter history of recent confirmation fights for the high court." And where AMY CONEY BARRETT was confirmed in 2020 with only GOP votes, 53-47, today's Democrats hold a bare-minimum 50-seat majority and have no room for defections. That's a practical reason why Dems are trying to win over a few Republicans, with a special focus on Alaska Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI, who is up for reelection this year, and — thanks to Alaska's new ranked-choice voting system — could use the support of Democrats and independents to help overcome Trump's fierce opposition to her. ALL POLITICS DNC TAKES AIM AT IOWA CAUCUSES — One of the most enduring traditions in presidential politics — the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus — is now officially on notice. Elena Schneider and David Siders have the readout from Saturday's meeting of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee — at which, members repeatedly "ripped into the caucus system and signaled a willingness to overhaul the primary calendar ahead of 2024." A taste of how it went: "Following the meeting, even Iowans could see their state could be in trouble. One longtime Iowa strategist watching the shellacking unfold said, 'That was f---ing painful.'" HUTCHINSON SPEAKS OUT ON TRUMP — Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON said Saturday that Trump "should not lead Republicans or the country again." He told Insider's Nicole Gaudiano and Camila DeChalus at NGA's winter meeting plainly that he does not "believe Trump is the one to lead our party and our country again, as president."   A message from The American Beverage Association: Our plastic bottles are made to be remade. Help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org   BEYOND THE BELTWAY GOP STATES MOVING FAST ON ABORTION — Republican-led state legislatures are pushing through bills that would restrict abortion rights ahead of the Supreme Court's coming decision that could completely alter Roe. v. Wade. WaPo's Caroline Kitchener breaks down what's happened in some states recently: "Nebraska lawmakers kicked off the new year by introducing a bill to ban all abortions if [Roe] is overturned. The next day, Florida legislators announced their plan to narrow the window for abortion access from 24 weeks of pregnancy to 15. And later that week in Phoenix, state legislators unveiled the Arizona Heartbeat Act, designed to mimic a Texas law passed last year. Lawmakers across the country have moved aggressively in recent weeks to lay the groundwork for a new era of abortion restrictions." AMERICA AND THE WORLD THE CONSEQUENCES OF SANCTIONS — Sanctions imposed on Russia "could cause severe inflation, a stock market crash and other forms of financial panic that would inflict pain on its people — from billionaires to government officials to middle-class families," write NYT's Michael Crowley and Edward Wong. "[T]he strategy comes with political and economic risks. No nation has ever tried to enact broad sanctions against such large financial institutions and on an economy the size of Russia's. And the 'swift and severe' response that U.S. officials have promised could roil major economies, particularly those in Europe, and even threaten the stability of the global financial system." PULLOUT FALLOUT — "At least 36,433 Afghan evacuees who were or are set to be resettled in the U.S. lack a direct pathway to secure permanent legal residency," CBS News' Camilo Montoya-Galvez reports . "The number represents over 40 percent of the tens of thousands of Afghans who were airlifted from Afghanistan. … These Afghans evacuees will remain in legal limbo unless Congress legalizes them or they apply for, and obtain, an immigration benefit like asylum. The U.S. asylum program, however, is plagued by a backlog of 412,000 applications."   DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     PLAYBOOKERS Mehmet Oz helped revive a state committee member who collapsed during the GOP caucus meeting. Olivia Nuzzi plays herself in a cameo on tonight's episode of "Billions," which is already available on-demand. Andrew Kaczynski and Rachel Ensign welcomed a baby girl, Talia Davida, the Hebrew name of her big sister, Francesca (aka "Beans"), who tragically died of complications from cancer. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Lobbyist Robert Stryk and former Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Va.), who most recently chartered flights for evacuees out of Afghanistan , are in talks with the Belarusian government to repair the nation's relationship with the U.S. Amid sanctions on the country for human rights abuses under the government of President Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus has denied a visa to U.S. Ambassador Julie D. Fisher. IN MEMORIAM — "Phyllis Oakley, whose 25-year diplomatic career in the State Department almost didn't happen because of an unwritten rule that forbade female foreign service officers from marrying, died on Jan. 22 at a hospital in Washington. She was 87. … In the late 1980s, as the Cold War waned, the straight-talking, forthright Ms. Oakley, whose boisterous laugh often signaled her presence, was much in the public eye as deputy spokesman (the term then in use) for the State Department under President Ronald Reagan. She later became assistant secretary for refugees and assistant secretary for intelligence and research under President Bill Clinton." Full obit, via NYT's Katharine Seelye — "Esteban Torres, an eight-term Democratic member of Congress from California who was dedicated to fighting poverty and who served for a time as chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, died on Tuesday. He was 91." Full obit, via NYT's Katharine Seelye TRUMP ALUMNI — Ryan Lambert is now senior policy analyst at government contracting firm ARServices. He is the former acting assistant administrator of the office of intergovernmental affairs at the SBA. TRANSITION — Nicole Bunce is now deputy director of legislative affairs for Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin. She most recently was VP of comms and external affairs at the Virginia Chamber of Commerce. … Rachel Bisi Lawlor is now senior manager for public policy at Amazon, where she engages with state attorneys general. She most recently was associate attorney in the state attorneys general practice at Cozen O'Connor. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Puru Trivedi, VP of external and corporate affairs at the Meridian International Center, and Kriti Doval, director for the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum, welcomed Alekya Doval Trivedi on Friday. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) and Mike Johnson (R-La.) (5-0) … Del. Michael San Nicolas (D-Guam) … CFPB Director Rohit Chopra (4-0) … former VP Dick Cheney … American Petroleum Institute's Mike Sommers … CBS News Radio's Steven Portnoy … POLITICO's Bob Hillman and John Pray … NBC's Natasha Korecki … MSNBC's Chris Jansing … Nels Olson of Korn Ferry … Lisa Desjardins of PBS NewsHour … BuzzFeed's Sarah Mimms … Jeff Naft of House Minority Whip Steve Scalise's (R-La.) office (27) … Todd Sloves of Rep. Donald Norcross' (D-N.J.) office … Walker Gallman of Heritage Action … Nick Erickson of the RNC … CNN's Maeve Reston … Len Bickwit of Miller & Chevalier … Josh Kram of the U.S. Chamber … Nathan Leamer of Targeted Victory … Hastie Afkhami of S-3 Public Affairs … Alexis Serfaty … Wanda Moebius of Johnson & Johnson … Marcela Sanchez of the World Bank … former Rep. Frank Wolf (R-Va.) … Peter Lauria … Alfred C. Liggins III … Drew Bond … Lea Hutchins … Ashley Therien of Rep. Kurt Schrader's (D-Ore.) office … L.A. Times' Mackenzie Mays Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.   A message from The American Beverage Association: America's leading beverage companies - The Coca-Cola Company, Keurig Dr Pepper and PepsiCo - are working together to reduce our industry's plastic footprint through our Every Bottle Back initiative. We're investing in efforts to get our bottles back so we can remake them into new bottles and use less new plastic. 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