PORTUGAL — SNAP ELECTION DELIVERS SOCIALIST LEAD: Portugal's center-left government, led by António Costa, is set to return for a third term after winning around 40 percent of the vote in a snap parliamentary election which took place Sunday. Portugal's new far-right force — Chega, established in 2019 — may finish third, but with less than 8 percent of the vote. POLITICO's Portugal poll of polls. IRAN —DEAL TALKS HEAD INTO FINAL STAGE , AGAIN, MAYBE, PERHAPS: "We are in the ballpark" for an update Iran deal, a White House official told Laura Rozen, but the government is nevertheless also prepared for the collapse of talks. This discussion is popping into view again for two reasons: Talks intensified through January, and Western diplomats self-imposed a mid-February deadline for progress. Iran never agreed to a timeline. French President Emmanuel Macron has been at it again, this time holding bilateral talks Saturday with Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi. While the discussion was by all accounts a detailed one, there's no specific progress shared by either party. The Hudson Institute today debates whether a revived nuclear deal will undermine American interests, from noon E.T. AFRICA — ICYMI, ANOTHER SAHEL REGION COUP, THIS TIME BURKINA FASO: The overthrow of President Roch Kabore last week marks the third coup in eight months and the fifth during Covid (the others were in Mali — twice, plus Chad and Guinea). More from Alex Thurston . An emergency virtual summit Friday of the Economic Community of West African States suspended Burkina Faso from the group. Ministers will meet in-person in Accra, Ghana, Feb. 3. Looking for a French response: A decade into France's reinvigorated military interest in its former colonies (ostensibly to shut down Islamist extremists), armed groups remain strong and coups are on the rise. Whatever France is doing, it's not working. Perhaps the need to deal with Sahel instability will prompt further Franco-American rapprochement. NORTH KOREA — SAME OLD BRINKMANSHIP: Everyone's least favorite dictatorship on Sunday conducted its most powerful missile test since President Joe Biden took office. But in a world of Ukraine tension, coups and China rivalries, North Korea isn't getting the attention it is used to . The missile was launched on a high trajectory, apparently to avoid the territorial spaces of neighbors and traveled 500 miles before landing in the sea. ITALY —LAWMAKERS CHOOSE STABILITY OVER CHAOS: After six failed attempts to select a new president, Italian lawmakers have maneuvered to leave Sergio Mattarella trapped in the country's presidency, a move that also allows Mario Draghi's government to survive for another year. Elections are scheduled to take place in early 2023. AFGHANISTAN — UNIMAGINABLE MISERY AND CHOICES: Starve your family or sell your daughter? What would you decide? No major powers are interested in formally recognizing the Taliban, but today's halfway house of humanitarian suffering isn't sustainable either. Glimmer of hope: The U.N. and EU have agreed to accelerate delivery of EU-funded programs to meet the "humanitarian and basic human needs" of Afghanistan. CHINA — XI PROMISES TO TACKLE INEQUALITY AND POLARIZATION: President Xi Jinping has issued a stark warning. "We are now living in a world in which income inequality is a glaring problem. Some countries have witnessed the growth of a huge gulf between rich and poor and the collapse of the middle class, which has led to social division, political polarization, and a surge of populism. This is a profound lesson. We in China must make resolute efforts to prevent polarization and promote common prosperity," per Quishi, the publication of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee. h/t John Ellis CHINA — IS BEIJING MAKING THE SAME MISTAKES AS LONDON DID WITH BRUSSELS? Stuart Lau, POLITICO's Brussels-based China reporter, tells Global Insider that Beijing is perplexed that Brussels would allow tiny Lithuania to "hijack" the overall China-EU relationship with its encouragement of Taiwanese independence. That sparked the thought that Beijing is confusing EU foreign policy with its market policies. The former is chronically underwhelming, at times incoherent, and easy enough to mess with. But mess with the EU's single market rules and you can expect a severe backlash. That's a lesson hundreds of companies have learned at the hands of antitrust enforcers, and a lesson that Britain refused to learn, holding up Brexit for three years. How long will it take Beijing to hear the same alarm bells ringing? UKRAINE CORNER BRITAIN FLAGS WIDER SANCTIONS: Liz Truss, Britain's foreign secretary, said Sunday the United Kingdom will look to "widen" its sanctions on the Kremlin to include "companies involved in propping up the Russian state." Truss will travel to Moscow next week, Russia's Ambassador to the U.K. Andrei Kelin said. U.S. Congress may also be close to a deal on further Russia sanctions . A bipartisan group is looking to push legislation that would levy some immediate sanctions based on Moscow's recent actions including cyberattacks and misinformation campaigns, and a wider array of punishments aimed at financial institutions, strategic sectors and sovereign debt that would be applied only in the event of an invasion. Tackling Russia's offshore wealth: Reuters reported Monday that the Biden administration "has developed specific sanctions packages for both Russian elites who meet the criteria and their family members, and these efforts are being pursued in coordination with U.S. allies and partners." More on the case for sanctioning oligarchs and their offshore wealth, by bipartisan congressional adviser Paul Massaro. Is Russia working to make Ukraine uninsurable? Elisabeth Braw notes that of 60 insurers that have recently offered political-risk insurance in Ukraine, only three now do so. "Companies that do manage to get insurance pay 500 percent more than they used to," meaning some companies are likely to be forced out of doing business in Ukraine. ASIA'S TURN IN THE UKRAINE HOT SEAT: Asian capitals from Beijing to Delhi to Hanoi have some Ukraine decisions to make. Asia Group's Charles Dunst (also a fellow at CSIS), emails Global Insider: "Beijing has not clarified whether — or how — it might support Russia if the country becomes the target of U.S. sanctions, particularly those targeting finance and technology. China will have to decide if it is willing to risk falling in the crosshairs of new U.S. sanctions, while the tangible benefits of materially supporting Moscow remain unclear." Hello, India! "Both India and Vietnam cooperate with the United States on national security despite relying on Russia for military materiel, and would prefer not to alienate either. The White House said this week that it would "welcome" Indian support, but New Delhi has not offered it," Dunst said. Brain food: Taiwan is not Ukraine, so stop linking their fates together in lazy analysis, argues Kharis Templeman. OLYMPICS — CORPORATE SPONSORS ARE NOT JOINING A DIPLOMATIC BOYCOTT: CNN looked at why Olympic ads don't feel as prominent this year in advance of the Beijing Games. But it's not as if they've gone away entirely — it's rather that Visa and Coca-Cola and the other mega-sponsors don't want to be drawn into the political maelstrom. Overall, the top 13 sponsors handed over $1 billion to associate with the world's biggest sporting events and the world's biggest consumer market: They're not giving it up because of pre-Games activist and Congressional pressure. CORPORATE — EARNING SEASON IN FULL SWING: Most of America's major banks reported last week, but three out of four companies on the S&P 500 are still to report , including Exxon Mobil on Tuesday and then Royal Dutch Shell on Thursday.
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