Here we are. Again.

Jul 31, 2023

Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today's edition:

→ Good morning to everyone but the capital city’s LRT system. Service won’t resume today because of “additional track infrastructure work.”

→ Party fundraising numbers drop today, and Playbook brings a preview.

→ Another ride on the B.C. port strike roller coaster. And a dizzying view from the shuffle spin cycle.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

PORT WATCH — It’s nearly a month since labor turmoil erupted at B.C.’s ports, when thousands of dock workers walked off the job for 13 days, snarling billions in trade.

The ports are currently open, yet here we are again.

The dock workers’ union decided Friday to reject a tentative agreement. Again.

Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH is calling for back-to-work legislation.Again.

Labor Minister SEAMUS O’REGAN is in the hot seat. Again.

Yet the labor strife might be on the verge of ending, maybe sorta. Again.

O’Regan said over the weekend that he'd asked the industrial relations board to investigate the labor standoff. If it had determined a negotiated resolution was not possible, it had the ability to impose a new collective agreement or binding arbitration.

— The latest: The Canadian Press reports that the two sides say they've reached a new tentative deal.

The Globe's BRENT JANG writes: "In a bit of déjà vu, the announcement of the tentative deal comes just 17 days after both sides approved and recommended acceptance of a separate proposed collective agreement that had been drafted by a federal mediator after talks stalled at the bargaining table."

— Reax: Just days after a Cabinet shuffle, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is demanding that Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU jettison O’Regan over his management of the dispute, which he called a “long trail of failures” that came with “plenty of warnings.”

SHOW ME THE MONEY — The latest fundraising stats for the federal parties are trickling in, but the full picture is missing without figures from the big blue fundraising juggernaut.

The Conservative Party is pushing it closer to the deadline than the others.

But here’s a quick snapshot of the rest.

The Liberal Party, which held its most recent convention in the quarter, raised C$3.19 million, according to figures provided to Playbook, up from C$2.76 million the same period last year.

As usual, all eyes will be on the contrast between the main opposition party and the governing Liberals, especially following the CPC’s banger first quarter and staggering record set in the final months of last year.

The latest filings to Elections Canada for the second quarter of the year show the NDP pulled in C$1.37 million from 16,936 party donors — up from C$1.18 million the same period last year.

The Bloc raked in C$239,513 from 1,444 people and the Greens C$408,348 from 4,351, a dip from C$437,835 last year.

Today is the filing deadline for the April, May and June figures, but the stragglers may not appear publicly until quite late. More to come, usually served up with a side of fresh spin from party comms.

SHUFFLED UP, DOWN, ALL AROUND — How might ANITA ANAND’s move from defense to treasury be newly interpreted this week?

So far, it’s been a clear promotion. A clear demotion. An interesting lateral move. Shuffled out of the spotlight and into the shadows ... of an important “economic” job. Clear enough?

— Theories floating around: Moving her to Treasury sets Anand up as a finance-minister-in-waiting, should CHRYSTIA FREELAND ever retire.

Or, the move to Treasury was a sign of Anand being too ambitious and her leadership campaign being too loud.

Or, it’s a sign Anand was too cozy with the department and her views on the defense budget came into conflict with the spending priorities of the Prime Minister’s Office.

Or, it’s a sign she wanted out. Or, she’s being punished. Or ...

— The view from afar: The Times of India called the new job a “key economic role” in Canada’s Cabinet, while a Hindustan Times headline reads “Indo-Canadian Anita Anand promoted.”

— The view from up close: Oakville News reported Anand got in contact with her local chamber of commerce soon after assuming the role.

In an interview with reporter KIM ARNOTT, Anand downplayed the notion she was shuffled into a low-profile gig and said she’ll be busy overseeing spending.

“Every single policy of the Government of Canada flows through the Treasury Board – everything.”

It echoed what she said on CBC’s Power and Politics, where she followed up the remarks with, "And yes, I am going to have to speak with my colleagues about the need for prudent spending and I'm looking forward to those conversations as well."

— The view from the military: In a real talker of a story, DAVID PUGLIESEreported for the Ottawa Citizen that Anand’s defense policy update was unrealistic and is being rewritten by the PMO.

It highlighted other tensions as well, like that she insisted Canada should not provide troops for a security mission to Haiti.

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area where he will visit a housing construction site and make a related announcement just after noon, ahead of a 2 p.m. visit to a local community center to meet with seniors.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s schedule has not yet been made public.

For your radar

ALARM BELLS — Canada posted a headline-friendly C$1.5 billion budgetary surplus for the first two months of the fiscal year.

But for ROBERT ASSELIN, policy SVP at the Business Council of Canada, underlying trends suggested by Finance’s latest fiscal monitor aren’t too rosy.

He tells Playbook that policymakers should be “concerned by the trend of lower government revenues at a time of higher expenditures and soaring debt-service costs,” but also cautioned the latest report “only captures two months of the fiscal year.”

— The good: Revenues stable.

— The bad: The stuff piling up in the other column. Expenses up 6.6 percent, or C$3.9 billion, with higher elderly benefits and growing provincial/territorial transfers.

— The ugly: Higher interest rates pushed up public debt charges by 22.8 percent, or C$1.3 billion.

— What to watch: Whether debt servicing this year blows past former central banker DAVID DODGE’s prescribed fiscal anchor (interest cost/revenue ratio under 10 percent).

For the record

Canada has a fresh slate of newly minted ministers.

Here’s a cross-section of some noteworthy talking points they’ve dropped so far.

— Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGEdoubled-down on the government’s fight with social media companies: “My predecessor Pablo [Rodriguez] did a great job with passing C-11 and C-18 and my goal is going to be the same, which is to make sure that our many industries and our cultural industries thrive, and to make sure that we have news and journalism so that the population can be well informed and our democracy is strong.”

— JONATHAN WILKINSON on the word “energy” appearing in his new title: “It’s a message to all of Canada, not just a message to Western Canada. It underlines the critical nature of the conversation around energy that we are going through, both with respect to how we address the climate crisis that we are facing but also how we actually build an economy that’s going to be strong and prosperous in a low-carbon future. It is an inclusive word that is quite important. It speaks to offshore wind in Nova Scotia. It speaks to the battery production in Ontario. It speaks to carbon capture and hydrogen in Alberta.”

— Fisheries Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER didn’t have to say anything. Her mere appointment raised hopes among some for a reset on the B.C. salmon farming issue.

— O’Regan on labor negotiations with B.C.’s port workers: “At some point down the line, we are going to have to a very, I think, careful and thoughtful look about how this is structured. We can’t have it happen again, as I’ve said on several occasions … It has tied up a lot of suppliers. It has tied up a lot of businesses and I’m quite conscious of that.”

MEDIA ROOM

— The Hub’s GEOFF RUSS observes that the B.C. ports strike may be a sign of a new era in Canadian politics in which all three major parties are vying for organized labor votes and changing the political landscape in the process.

— In the Winnipeg Free Press, NIIGAAN SINCLAIR writes of new Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister GARY ANANDASANGAREE, a Sri Lankan Tamil: “For the first time, a person of color is at the helm of Indigenous affairs in Canada. But Anandasangaree isn’t just that; he’s a person who has experienced colonialism first-hand and witnessed how it divides and destroys people and communities.”

— GOLDY HYDER, president and chief executive of the Business Council of Canada, warns in the Globe: Canada’s unilateral push for digital-services tax could sink its U.S. trade deal.

— Why do some people who support DONALD TRUMP also wind up believing conspiracy theories? Writing for POLITICO, U of T professor MARCEL DANESI says there’s a scientific explanation for that.

— Writing in Foreign Policy, BETHANY ALLEN-EBRAHIMIAN explains how China trolls flooded Twitter.

— In a feature on climate migration, the Globe’s NATHAN VANDERKLIPPE considers a subset of Americans who are moving toward places “that are likely to catch fire or drown.”

— Cabmin SEAN FRASER fielded questions from KATIE UNDERWOOD and Maclean’s about skills gaps, H-1B visas, housing, and bagpipe tunes.

— The Star’s RAISA PATEL, ALEX BALLINGALL and STEPHANIE LEVITZ had the disappointed backbencher scuttle on Saturday.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM and SUE ALLAN: Ottawa braces for Bidenomics backhand.

In other news for Pro subscribers:

— B.C. forest industry blames ‘U.S. delays’ for softwood lumber dispute inertia.

— Biden order will tie R&D money to domestic manufacturing.

— Energy Department advances trio of efficiency rules.

— Biofuel crops could hurt grassland birds more than oil — USGS.

— NEPA 'Phase 2' revamp aims to reverse Trump, boost renewables.

Playbookers

Birthdays: HBD to Conservative MP TOM KMIEC.

Bloc Québécois MP LOUIS PLAMONDON, House of Commons Dean, is 80!

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: 6-year-old ALLY making Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s day with a positive note … Conservative MP ANNA ROBERTS, on the rebound after knee-replacement surgery.

Former premier and MP UJJAL DOSANJH, talking about his new novel … MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, sharing her stepdaughter’s engagement photos… Senator MOHAMED-IQBAL RAVALIA, sharing a photo of Joe Batt’s Arm.

The Senate, on the hunt for a senior adviser, organizational development.

Movers and shakers: COLE JONES, acting assistant director at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, received permission — approved and Gazetted — to seek nomination as a candidate for public office in Nepean.

Media mention: Photojournalist JESSICA LEE is moving back to Toronto after being laid off from the Winnipeg Free Press: “I have had such a memorable time living in Winnipeg and will have stories to tell for years.”

Farewells: DAPHNE BRAMHAM has left The Vancouver Sun after 34 years.

In memoriam: Journalist EWART WALTERS, former editor and publisher of Ottawa’s Black newspaper The Spectrum, has died … ADRIAN HAREWOOD paid tribute to Walters, “a mentor & moral compass to generations, and a tireless advocate for Black communities.”

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: The name of that “strikingly modern landmark” is the Calgary Tower (the free-standing building formerly known as the Husky Tower).

Props to JOHN ECKER, VALERIE WILKINS, DAN FONDA, DOUG SWEET, ELLA D'SILVA, JOHN DILLON, CHRIS D'ENTREMONT, WAYNE EASTER, PATRICK DION, BOB TAYLOR-VAISEY, NANCY BROWMAN, JOHN MERRIMAN, DAN MCCARTHY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MARC LEBLANC, ALLAN FABRYKANT, CHARLIE SKIPWORTH, JOSEPH CHAMOUN, NATHAN GORDON and ROD PIUKKALA.

Monday’s question: Name the Indiana-born woman who made history in British Columbia on this date in history with her dips and rolls.

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

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