Sununu is gone. Can Democrats finally win?

Jul 31, 2023

TOP LINE

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu has had a lock on his state’s gubernatorial mansion. But with the popular Republican incumbent not seeking reelection, Democrats hope they can recapture the seat next year for the first time since 2016.

Sununu’s reign has been a rare outlier for Granite State Democrats, who have otherwise won every presidential election and Senate contest there after 2010.

“I think we have as good of a shot as we've had in many, many years,” said Marc Goldberg, a longtime senior aide to Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), arguing that Democrats would put up a “very high quality candidate” in the general election. “It's going to be a close race, but certainly we feel good going into the fall.”

But first, both parties must navigate what will likely be competitive primaries. Two Democrats are in the race so far — Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington — and both are quickly rounding up endorsements and raising cash.

Republicans, too, were eager to jump in after Sununu called it quits. It took less than 10 minutes for former state Senate President Chuck Morse to enter the race following Sununu’s announcement, and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte teased a run of her own within the hour, formally launching a bid days later.

With Morse and Ayotte in the race already — and others like Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut likely to jump in — a strong field is emerging.

“Sununu would have won reelection, so to some extent I understand why Democrats view this as at least more of an opportunity,” said New Hampshire Republican consultant Patrick Hynes. But he said, Morse, Ayotte and Edelblut are “very serious candidates who are going to run on a Sununu legacy of unquestionable accomplishment.”

A major question looming is whether Sununu will endorse in the GOP primary, or if any of the presidential candidates that are flocking to the state will get involved. Sununu recently didn’t rule out endorsing a successor, but was otherwise noncommittal about backing a candidate.

This race — along with the presidential primary, which Sununu wants to influence after skipping a run of his own — will be a major test on if Sununu’s record of electoral success can transfer to other Republicans in New Hampshire, or if he is unique and part of a dying breed of moderate GOP governors in blue and purple states.

“One of the reasons Sununu has been more successful is he doesn’t come across as other Republicans tend to do, and I’m not sure he can transfer that,” Goldberg, the former Hassan aide, said.

Like so many elections nationwide, abortion rights are poised to be a prominent issue in this race, after Democrats focused on them in a slew of battleground gubernatorial contests in the midterms. Craig’s campaign has already come after Ayotte twice for her position on abortion, and Republicans will likely be questioned about the state’s current 24-week law on the campaign trail.

“It’s one of the most pro-choice states in the country,” Goldberg said, adding that the issue has been key in statewide elections for a decade. “Obviously, the biggest difference now is we’re post-Dobbs and in a world without Roe. Now the threat is much more acute.”

But Hynes argued that Sununu’s record as governor gives his eventual Republican successor a strong platform to run on. “By every objective measure, the Republican economic program in the state of New Hampshire has been demonstrated to be enormously successful,” Hynes said, pointing to small business tax cuts, job creation and Covid-19 response.

“Obviously, this is a very pro-choice state,” he continued. “Democrats have that particular wind at their back. There's a high degree of probability they will overplay it. And I hope that there's a high degree of probability that Republicans will figure out how to talk about it in a way that respects differences and is sincere about how they feel about the issue and showing that they take it seriously.”

Happy Monday. Andrew here, filling in today for Madison while she’s on vacation. Reach me at ahoward@politico.com and @andrewjfhoward.

Days until the Mississippi primary: 8

Days until the RI-01 and UT-02 special election primaries: 36

Days until the Louisiana primary: 75

Days until the 2023 election: 99

Days until the Republican National Convention: 350

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 385

Days until the 2024 election: 463

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

2025 WATCH — Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is telling people she will run for governor in 2025, POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris scooped. Spanberger could run for her battleground House seat in 2024. But Ally and Sarah report that she has told allies she won’t seek a fourth term next year, forfeiting her competitive House seat that is a must-win for Democrats in order to retake the majority.

GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin can’t run in two years, and other Democrats — like former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn and Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney — are also considering runs.

…Two groups closely aligned with pro-Trump New Jersey radio host Bill Spadea, who is considering a 2025 gubernatorial run, have raised more than $320,000 between them since they were founded earlier this year. But they aren’t spending much of it on helping Republican candidates on the ballot this year, POLITICO’s Matt Friedman reports. More: “Campaign finance records released this month show that while Spadea’s two groups have spent nearly all the money they’ve raised, less than one percent has gone to help Republican candidates and organizations. Instead, the bulk has paid for fundraising expenses as well as political consultants.” Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is term-limited.

WHAT’S HE PLANNING — Failed Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano is preparing for something, but Republicans in the state can’t figure out what, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Chris Brennan writes. “The most likely scenario: Mastriano is in the very early days of another run for governor in 2026, which raises the prospect of a rematch with Gov. Josh Shapiro, who soundly defeated him last year.” Mastriano passed on a Senate run earlier this year.

ABORTION ON THE BALLOT? — “Florida Democrats see a possible path to winning America’s once-foremost battleground state: abortion and marijuana,” POLITICO’s Gary Fineout writes from Miami. “Key party leaders in the state, desperate to turn things around in 2024, are confident that citizen initiatives dealing with abortion rights and recreational marijuana legalization could fuel turnout and boost the party’s chances."

… Ohio Republicans are seeking to block a ballot measure that would ensure abortion rights in the state’s constitution. They argue that the petition, which has already qualified for the November ballot, “did not identify which state laws would have to be repealed if the constitutional amendment were to be adopted,” reports Cleveland.com’s Zachary Smith.

Presidential Big Board

CASH CRUNCH — Former President Donald Trump’s team is creating Patriot Legal Defense Fund Inc., lead by Michael Glassner, to foot the bills stemming from investigations and indictments, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Shane Goldmacher write. “The creation of the legal-defense fund could ease some of the financial pressure on his PAC, Save America, which was severe enough that it requested a refund of the $60 million it had transferred to a pro-Trump super PAC late last year,” they report. The Washington Post’s Josh Dawsey, Devlin Barrett and Spencer Hsu reported earlier that the leadership PAC will report spending $40 million on legal bills for the first half of the year.

ON THE TRAIL — Despite repeated insults thrown at GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds and more federal charges looming, Iowans love Trump, our own Natalie Allison reports from Des Moines. “As forks and knives clanked over plates of chicken and mashed potatoes at the state GOP’s annual Lincoln Dinner, Trump’s reception was a demonstration of the reality that continues to dog the rest of the Republican presidential field: seemingly no conventional rules of politics apply to him,” she wrote.

… Vice President Kamala Harris is playing a more central role in President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign through “quickly targeted and arranged appearance[s]” that include recent trips to Florida and Iowa, reports CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere.

GOP EDUCATION FIGHT — Sen. Tim Scott is going after DeSantis for Florida’s new standards on teaching slavery in schools, Meg Kinnard and Hannah Fingerhut report for the AP, noting that the comments “marked a shift in campaign styles for both DeSantis and Scott, who have not directly critiqued each other.”

… Related “GOP rivals prepare to take on ‘happy warrior’ Tim Scott,” by Axios’ Erin Doherty.

PRO-LABELS — Former Missouri Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon is joining No Labels as its “director of ballot integrity,” AP’s Steve Peoples writes. He told the AP he took the position after learning that Democratic-aligned organizations were trying to stop No Labels.

THE CASH DASH

FIRST IN SCORE — BIG DOWNBALLOT NUMBERS — The Republican State Leadership Committee, the GOP committee focused on legislative and other downballot races, had a big haul for the first half of the year, Zach writes in. The RSLC and an aligned nonprofit — the State Government Leadership Foundation — combined to raise $15.6 million this year, which the group said was a record for the most raised over the same time period in an odd year.

The announcement came with a plea for more. “Breaking our odd year fundraising record is a huge accomplishment, and just shows that state Republicans are continuing to build momentum across the country,” RSLC President Dee Duncan said in a statement. “Although these record numbers are a great sign for Republican enthusiasm, it is still just a fraction of what the constellation of national liberal special interest groups continue to funnel into state races.”

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AS SEEN ON TV

FIRST IN SCORE — KY-Gov: Club for Growth is getting involved in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, with its PAC endorsing Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Zach writes in. “Attorney General Daniel Cameron is a rising star in the Kentucky Republican Party and will continue his work to preserve economic liberty across the state,” David McIntosh, the group’s president, said in a statement.

A Club-aligned super PAC called School Freedom Fund is also launching a new advertising campaign that begins Tuesday. The first ad in the buy attacks Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear over commutations issued during the pandemic. The ad is part of a $2.9 million TV buy in the Louisville and Lexington markets, the group says.

… An ad from the Republican Governors Association's Kentucky affiliate has been restored on YouTube, after being taken offline sometime over the weekend for violating the platform's policy on hate speech. The ad, which was posted on Friday, targets Beshear, accusing him of supporting a “radical transgender agenda.” It isn't clear when it was first pulled, but it was offline as of Sunday evening with an automated message saying it violated the policy. On Sunday, RGA spokesperson Courtney Alexander said “this appears to be just another example of big tech covering for Democrats and silencing the truth. We are appealing.”

As of Monday morning, it has been restored. At issue is Beshear’s veto of a sweeping bill that included, among other things, banning gender-affirming care for minors. It has been a common theme in Republican ads, and Beshear previously issued a response ad saying he “never supported gender reassignment surgery for kids and those procedures don't happen here in Kentucky.” (Read more from the Louisville Courier Journal’s Joe Sonka about the previous rounds of ads.)

— PRESIDENTIAL: Best of America PAC, a super PAC supporting North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, is out with an ad supporting the North Dakota governor’s longshot bid for president. The group has spent $92,000 on Newsmax nationally, according to AdImpact.

— MT-Sen: Montana Republican Tim Sheehy is spending $200,000 on a broadcast, cable, satellite and digital ad buy, Ally Mutnick reports. The ad is the Senate candidate and former Navy SEAL’s first significant broadcast spending.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — "I miss that little blue bird. It was a symbol we all shared, childlike and kind of charming.” — Marianne Williamson on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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