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| Happy Monday, Insiders! I am well-rested (and well-tanned) after a relaxing weeklong vacation. I'm glad to be back! Also, I wanted to note that I have been writing the Daily Brief for two years. It has been an awesome journey for me and I am grateful to you, my readers. Today's newsletter covers: - 🗳️ Trump's massive lead over DeSantis and other GOP contenders in a new NYT-Siena poll
- 🏦 Significant changes to the way that the Small Business Administration (SBA) approves loans and lenders
- 🏗️ Italy regrets joining China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI)
And much more. As always, your faithful IDB writer, Daniel
p/Dan-Smith | |
| 1 | | A new poll found that former President Donald Trump holds a 37-point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis among likely Republican primary voters. According to the poll, Trump holds a significant lead over his rivals across different regions, demographics, and ideological wings of the Republican Party. More: - The data comes from the first New York Times - Siena College poll of the 2024 presidential campaign.
- 54% of likely GOP primary voters support Trump, compared to just 17% for DeSantis.
- Former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott each received the support of about 3% of polled individuals.
- 89% of those polled said they believe the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction.
- The 2024 primary season is set to begin in less than six months.
Zoom Out: - Only 17% of likely GOP primary voters believe that Trump committed any serious federal crimes.
- Trump was recently indicted over his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving the White House, and it appears likely that he will be indicted for his involvement in alleged schemes to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
- A Trump-controlled PAC has spent more than $40M on legal fees so far this year.
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| 2 | | 
What the numbers say: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock dropped over 4% on Monday after a judge blocked the consumer conglomerate's effort to use a bankruptcy case to limit exposure to lawsuits filed over the company's sale of talc-based products, which have been linked to cancer. Relevance: Plaintiffs in tens of thousands of lawsuits allege that Johnson & Johnson was aware of the risks posed by the company's talc-based products. In 2021, Johnson & Johnson formed a subsidiary company called LTL Management for use in the talc litigation. Johnson & Johnson then proposed that the subsidiary, which filed for bankruptcy, pay $8.9B to resolve the lawsuits. This was the second instance so far this year in which a U.S. court blocked the company's bankruptcy efforts. | | | |
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| 3 | | The Small Business Administration (SBA) agency is simplifying loan requirements and making it easier for nonbank lenders to issue loans to American small businesses. SBA officials said the move comes in response to complaints from small businesses that they struggled to borrow money, as banks preferred to issue loans to larger commercial enterprises. More: - Under the new rules, some of which will take effect on August 1, more non-bank lenders can access the SBA licenses needed to lend to small businesses.
- Roughly 100 lenders are responsible for 70% of SBA lending, although thousands of banks and credit unions are licensed to issue SBA loans.
- The SBA will also automate more of its internal processes to accelerate lending timelines.
- The agency will also reduce or eliminate the down payment requirements for some borrowers.
Zoom Out: - The SBA guarantees up to 85% in losses, and SBA borrowers can access up to $5M in credit from SBA-approved lenders.
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| 4 | | GOOD NEWS: Researchers have counted a record number of sea turtle nests in the northern part of Palm Beach County in Florida. The Loggerhead Marinelife Center said that 21,872 turtle nests were counted along the 9.5-mile stretch of beach. More: - With three months left in the nesting season, it is a near certainty that the total nest count will climb higher.
- Last year, a total of 18,132 nests were counted.
- Dr. Justin Perrault, vice president of research at the Center, said that his team hopes that new records for individual turtle species nest totals will also be set.
- He said that decades of "ocean conservation efforts... are finally coming to fruition."
- Loggerheads, leatherbacks, and green turtles, all of which are endangered or threatened species, nest along Florida beaches.
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| 5 | | Guido Crosetto, Italy's defense minister, said his country made an "atrocious" decision when it joined China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2019. Italy was the first and only Western European nation to join the BRI. More: - Crosetto said the "improvised and atrocious" decision had led to growth in Chinese exports to Italy "without having the same effect on Italian exports to China."
- According to data from the Italian trade ministry, Chinese exports to Italy rose by 51% between 2019 and 2022.
- During the same period, Italian exports to China grew by 26%.
- He also said that Italy needs to find a way out of the deal without damaging its relationship with China.
Zoom Out: - Earlier this year, China launched a diplomatic initiative aimed at persuading Italy to continue participating.
- Italy's BRI membership is set to be automatically renewed in March 2024 if the Italian government doesn't submit a request to withdraw by December 2023.
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| 6 | | Lebanon's incoming central bank chief urged the country's government to implement major economic reforms, including creating restrictions on the state's ability to borrow from the bank. The Lebanese pound has lost 98% of its value since 2019 as the nation struggles to contain a prolonged economic crisis. More: - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in June said that Lebanon's economic crisis has been worsened by the government's failure to institute monetary and fiscal reforms.
- Incoming interim central bank governor Wassim Mansouri said the government should only be allowed to borrow from the central bank if it demonstrates that it can pay the debt back.
- He said he would reject financing requests that were "outside the legal framework."
- Mansouri also called on the Lebanese government to pass a capital control law and financial restructuring laws.
Zoom Out: - Outgoing central bank chief Riad Salameh, who led the bank for 30 years, has been charged with money laundering, fraud, and embezzlement of public funds,
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- The White House launched a beta version of its new income-driven student loan repayment plan, the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan.
- 17-year-old U.S.A. cycling team member Magnus White died after he was struck by a vehicle while road-cycling near his home in Boulder, Colorado.
- Using casualty lists and historical documents, researchers have identified the bodies of 357 foreign fighters who went missing during the Spanish Civil War, including 212 fighters from Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands.
- Lamborghini CEO Stephan Winkelmann said the company's annual sales are on track to surpass 10,000 cars sold for the first time this year.
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Term of the Day Management Buyout: An acquisition where the company's existing management acquires the controlling stake from the existing owners is called a management buyout (MBO). Question of the Week Have you ever regretted a career decision? What would you have done differently? Join the conversation |
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 | Writer | | Dr. Daniel Smith is an Inside writer with a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Cambridge. Follow him on Twitter @DJS12321 or email him at Daniel@inside.com. | | This newsletter was edited by NO ACCOUNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EDITOR | |
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