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Is a key ocean current about to run AMOC?

Presented by The Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition (CHFC): Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation
Jul 28, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Heather Richards

Presented by The Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition (CHFC)

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

An illustration of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. New research suggests the AMOC is being influenced by climate change. | NASA


On top of the painful heat wave, this week's climate news cycle was marked by a frankly terrifying study that points to the possibly imminent collapse of a crucial ocean current helping to regulate the world’s weather and climate patterns.

What’s everyone so afraid of? Researchers have previously documented that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a tumbling river in the ocean that helps keep Europe’s winters mild, is slowing down and could face a dangerous tipping point in the future. But the new research puts a failure date somewhere between 2025 and 2095, suggesting a potentially imminent change to the climate as we know it, with chaotic results.

The fast-flowing Gulf Stream, which carries warm water up the U.S. East Coast and across the ocean to Northern Europe, is one part of the system. Other branches of the current stretch into the Southern Hemisphere, where the same overturning and upwelling process occurs. A collapse could lead to dramatic cooling in Europe — think heavy winter storms and bone-dry summers — while in other regions of the planet, tropical rain belts could bring floods to some people and drought to others.

The, er, goodish news? This is just one study, and it contradicts what many other scientists have found in their research. The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for example, has said the current is unlikely to break down in this century. (The long-term direction is still super unpleasant, though.)

David Thornalley, an ocean scientist at University College London, told Chelsea Harvey the chances of an abrupt change should be taken seriously. But the findings don’t tell the whole story. “No, I don’t think one study does overturn the IPCC assessment, and we should view the results of this new study with some skepticism,” Thornalley said.

Also notable: While scientists combing through the new report have said its modeling is sound, the data comes from just one region of the ocean as a stand-in for the whole. Our limited knowledge isn’t totally surprising — researchers have only just started to collect data spanning the current.

Ultimately, the subject demands further study. And these new findings, coupled with recent research also tracking early warning signals that the slowing current could fail, suggests AMOC may not be as resilient as previously thought.

 

It's Friday  thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Heather Richards. Arianna will be back soon! Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to hrichards@eenews.net.

 

A message from The Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition (CHFC):

We can jump-start America’s clean hydrogen economy. Here’s how. With practical clean hydrogen rules in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), we can bring clean hydrogen production to market faster, and help decarbonize critical industries like refining, steel and fertilizer production. See who’s working to speed up America’s clean hydrogen economy.

 
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Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Alex Guillén and Ben Lefebvre discuss the Mountain Valley Pipeline's Supreme Court win, and why it may not be the final legal hurdle for the beleaguered pipe.

 

A message from The Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition (CHFC):

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President Joe Biden.

President Joe Biden speaks Thursday in the South Court Auditorium on the White House Campus during an event to announce new measures aimed at helping communities deal with extreme weather. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

The Biden administration's remake of the National Environmental Policy Act is finally here, meaning lawmakers are sure to devolve into a spat by the weekend.

What is NEPA? For those living under the proverbial rock, NEPA is an influential law enacted in 1970 that forces the government to consider how its decisions, from permitting a massive offshore wind farm to digging a single oil well on federal lands, affect the environment.

So what’s new? The Biden administration is taking a crack at new rules on how NEPA is implemented to include issues like racial justice as well as beef up climate considerations, writes Robin Bravender. The White House also wants to make sure renewables that are key to President Joe Biden’s climate agenda make it through the lengthy process at a good clip.

Where’s the fight? Oh, it’s coming.

The White House and Republicans made a deal last month to enact permitting changes that could help both fossil fuel projects and renewables. With Biden’s new provisions for climate and environmental justice on deck, some may say that deal has been broken. Prepare for some mudslinging in three, two, one ...

 

HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

 
 
Power Centers

Solar panels running across farmland in Md.

Solar panels running across farmland in Thurmont, Md. | Julio Cortez/AP Photo

FERC fuels renewables
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has advanced a "historic" final rule that could speed the connection of new energy projects to the grid, helping plow through an enormous backlog of renewable energy and storage developments awaiting approval across the nation, writes Miranda Willson.

The move comes at a time of unprecedented pressure on the electricity grid to adapt to the energy transition, as states try to pivot from carbon-heavy sources of power by advancing what will be tremendous amounts of new, greener electricity. Meanwhile, several closely watched fossil fuel projects, including a liquefied natural gas project proposed on the Gulf Coast, were struck from the recent FERC meeting's schedule for unclear reasons.

New battle brewing over hydrogen?
There's a conflict brewing over just what makes hydrogen "clean." Riding on that question are millions of dollars in potential tax benefits promised in the Democrats' climate law.

The Treasury Department is poised to release guidelines on the Inflation Reduction Act's 45V credit, as soon as next month. In anticipation, supporters of the budding hydrogen industry want broad application. Enviros, however, want a strict set of rules so the energy-intensive process of creating green hydrogen by splitting the "H2" and the "O" of H2O doesn't offset hydrogen's benefits.

Sen. Joe Manchin, the conservative Democrat from West Virginia, promised "a lot of problems" if the administration takes the environmentalists' side. And unlike in some other battles between Manchin and the White House, other Democrats could back their colleague against the president, writes Nico Portuondo.

 

A message from The Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition (CHFC):

Clean hydrogen can power the heavy industries our nation relies on with lower CO2 emissions. The Inflation Reduction Act is poised to jump-start the clean hydrogen economy in the US, and help decarbonize critical industries like refining, steel and fertilizer production.

That’s why the Clean Hydrogen Future Coalition supports practical clean hydrogen rules. We can bring clean hydrogen to market faster using the clean power sources America already has today, and annually match that power to hydrogen production, while we invest in the clean hydrogen industry of the future.

America can’t wait to start decarbonizing the industries our nation relies on. We're working to speed up America’s clean hydrogen economy.

 
In Other News

Big wind blowing: Offshore wind is just arriving in the United States, with the first two utility-scale wind arrays under construction in New England thanks to approvals by the White House. But the industry is already producing massive amounts of power across the pond. Here's a tour of the world's largest offshore wind farm, a 300-turbine array off the coast of Grimsby, England.

Derailing an oil train: A 99-year lease for a railroad tunnel in Colorado is about to expire, and that could hand environmentalists opposed to a proposed increase in oil transit from Utah's Uinta Basin on those lines a new battleground.

Question Corner

Have we got a question for you:

You may know the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska or the Santa Barbara crude spill of 1969.

But what is the longest-running offshore oil spill in U.S. history, and where is that ongoing bleed located?

If you know the answer, send it to hrichards@eenews.net with “Question Corner” in the subject line.

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A showcase of some of our best subscriber content.

G20 climate ministers ended talks Friday with no consensus on how to transition away from fossil fuels or scale up renewables. Representatives at the forum of leaders from 19 countries and the European Union walked away from the meeting broadly disappointed, unable to find agreement on key goals, like how to restrain global emissions so they will peak in 2025.

Minneapolis is breaking new ground, rolling out a climate blueprint for the Midwestern city that could see it make a 100 percent shift to renewable electricity within seven years. The city plans to pay for it, in part, by collecting roughly $10 million a year from fees on electricity and gas.

President Joe Biden has ordered tougher scrutiny of the companies that don't protect workers from extreme heat, but his edict also draws attention to delayed regulations from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration that worker advocates say are critical to protecting millions of people in the U.S. from working in extreme conditions.

That's it for today, folks. Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend!

Correction: Yesterday’s Power Switch had the wrong job title for former OIRA associate administrator Sabeel Rahman.

 

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