| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | | | An under-the-radar election in Pennsylvania next week could have a major impact on the rules for the 2024 election. Democratic Superior Court Judge Daniel McCaffery and Republican Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas Judge Carolyn Carluccio are facing off next week for an opening on the state Supreme Court after the death of Democratic Justice Max Baer. The election won’t change who controls the court: Democrats currently have a 4-2 majority. But a win for the GOP would put Republicans one step closer to flipping the court in the coming years.
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Republican Judge Carolyn Carluccio campaigns on Oct. 6 in Connellsville, Pa. | Barry Reeger/AP | In the more immediate term, the victor of the race will serve as the tiebreaker for the court, which has deadlocked on high-profile election cases since Baer died last fall. In one case regarding ballot curing, one Democratic justice sided with the Republicans who wanted to reverse a lower court’s decision that allowed counties to help voters fix errors — like their signature — on mail ballots. Because the state’s high court ruled 3-3 in a case originally brought by the Republican National Committee and others, the lower court’s decision remained in place — meaning counties could continue to allow voters to cure their ballots. Similarly, in another case brought by Republicans last year on if mail ballots that were dated incorrectly, or not at all, should be thrown out, a Democratic justice joined Republicans, causing a deadlock. That led to those ballots being set aside and not counted. Republicans, who are less likely to vote by mail compared to Democrats (although some in the GOP are looking to change that), considered the ruling a win. An extra vote in either of these cases could have influenced the outcome, potentially changing how votes are counted in the swing state. Both candidates said that they could not prejudge potential cases when Score asked about how they would rule on those issues. But Carluccio said in a statement that she does “have concerns about the conflicting, and sometimes unclear, undated ballot decisions made by the court in 2023, 2022, and 2020 [about the state’s mail ballots]. I believe our laws must be applied as written, and certainly, our election laws must be applied consistently across all counties, regardless of the election year.” McCaffery said in a statement that the state’s mail ballot law was “passed with broad bipartisan support” and “any challenge to voting rights must be viewed in the context of promoting a fair and robust election process, free from fraud or voter manipulation.” It’s likely that even more election litigation will make its way before the court in 2024. Pennsylvania was one of the many states home to court challenges following the 2020 election, spurred by former President Donald Trump’s false claims that the contest was rigged against him. And with Trump currently leading the GOP presidential field, a similar scenario could play out next year — and McCaffery or Carluccio could be the deciding vote. Earlier this year, Carluccio didn’t directly address a question asking if she thought the 2020 and 2022 elections were free and fair. And in a recent interview with the editorial board of The Philadelphia Inquirer, Carluccio said she has “no idea” if President Joe Biden won the 2020 election. “Yeah, I think he’s the president,” she quickly added after a “surprised reaction” from an editorial board member. “Obviously, he’s our president. I believe he won the election. There are people in my party who don’t believe that. I do believe that I’ll be very clear about it. And I should have just been more direct in the beginning.” "Unfortunately, the Philadelphia Inquirer chopped up my comment and did not include my full statement,” Carluccio told Score. “I continued to say ‘I've seen no evidence to say that he didn't win it’ when answering the question. Joe Biden obviously won the 2020 election and is our President." The Pennsylvania Supreme Court race has drawn millions of dollars from national groups, as state Supreme Court races continue to garner more attention. There’s scarce public polling on the race, but McCaffery had the lead in a poll from the conservative Commonwealth Foundation from last month. He also has a fundraising advantage, and Democrats are narrowly outspending Republicans on the airwaves. Happy Monday. We’re fast approaching Election Day. Have any burning questions about the races in Kentucky, Mississippi, Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania? Some of my POLITICO colleagues and I will answer them next week. Send them over to mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the 2023 election: 8 Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 77 Days until the Republican National Convention: 259 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 294 Days until the 2024 election: 372
| | | | A message from PREMION Political: New 2023 Report! Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A new report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now. | | | | | ANOTHER ONE — Former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his presidential campaign over the weekend. He told the crowd at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s annual leadership conference in Las Vegas that “this is not my time.” Pence has struggled to raise money and gain traction in the polls since he joined the race in June — especially in the face of “Trump’s most ardent supporters,” POLITICO’s Adam Wren writes. He’s the most notable candidate to drop his bid so far. Others who dropped out include radio host Larry Elder, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, former Texas Rep. Will Hurd and businessperson Perry Johnson. WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS — For the non-Trump candidates still in the running at the RJC convention in Vegas, none were able to shake the former president’s dominance in the race. Even in light of Trump's comments earlier this month criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the crowd of Jewish Republicans gave Trump the “most sustained applause,” POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt writes from Las Vegas, showing “how swiftly his perceived missteps can be forgotten.” The event was a rare opportunity for Trump's opponents to swing at him as they shared the stage, as he dodged all of the GOP primary debates and most cattle calls. Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, who in recent weeks has seen some momentum, went after Trump the most for his comments. “But there seemed to be little appetite in the room for attacks on the frontrunner,” Alex writes, noting that former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was booed when he took the stage. PRIMARY PROBLEMS — Democratic Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips announced a bid for president, starting an uphill challenge against President Joe Biden as a “virtual unknown,” POLITICO’s Elena Schneider and Lisa Kashinsky write. Phillips' run is being met with “indifference” from the Biden campaign, although “there are clear signs that the Biden team is paying attention. The campaign sent out a fundraising email within hours of Phillips’ official launch, signed by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, titled: ‘Minnesota loves Joe Biden.’” Phillips, a businessperson who ran a distilling business and a gelato company, pledged to contribute a $2 million loan to his campaign. Steve Schmidt, the former Republican strategist and Trump critic, is a top strategist for Phillips’ bid and said that the campaign will focus on New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan.
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| | ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — Vulnerable Ohio Democrats are betting that next month’s vote on Issue 1, a ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, will serve as a roadmap for their contests next year. Democratic Reps. Greg Landsman, Emilia Sykes and Marcy Kaptur, as well as Sen. Sherrod Brown, are all campaigning in support of the issue, and the Ohio Democratic Party is confident that their Republican opponents’ anti-abortion advocacy will backfire in 2024. But Republicans in the state disagree, arguing that voters in 2024 will be more focused on kitchen table issues. Read more from Alice Miranda Ollstein and your host.
| | | | A message from PREMION Political:   | | | | | FIRST IN SCORE — OUTSIDE BOOST — DMFI PAC is launching an independent expenditure in support of RI-01 Democratic candidate Gabe Amo, who the PAC is also endorsing. The group is running digital ads targeting pro-Israel voters in the district, where he is facing off against Republican Gerry Leonard next week in a special election to fill the seat, which was left vacant by Democrat David Cicilline earlier this year. DOWN-BALLOT DOLLARS — Women Speak Out Virginia, which is partnered with Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, is investing $1.5 million in support of Republicans running in the Virginia state legislative elections. The campaign includes digital ads, voter contact mail and phone outreach and is Women Speak Out Virginia’s largest investment to date, the group said. Abortion is a top issue in the races, which are taking place next week.
| | | PRESIDENTIAL — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is getting hit on multiple fronts. SFA Fund, the super PAC boosting Haley’s presidential bid, says in an ad in Iowa and New Hampshire that he “can’t stop lying” about Haley “because he’s losing” and goes after him for his China policy. MAGA Inc., which is supporting Trump, claims DeSantis “sided with liberals” in an Iowa spot. The candidates’ allies are looking to tout the hopefuls’ foreign policy bonafides. Another Iowa ad from MAGA Inc. highlights Trump’s foreign policy plans concerning China and the U.S.-Mexico border. And a spot from Never Back Down, the pro-DeSantis super PAC, features a clip of DeSantis advocating for a “totally new approach to China.” KY GOV — Kentucky Values, a group affiliated with the Republican Governors Association, is the latest of Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron’s allies to emphasize his endorsement from Trump in the race for governor. Another ad from the group repeats Cameron’s talking points of the work he’s done against the Biden administration during his time as attorney general. Club for Growth, which has endorsed Cameron, echoes the same themes. Cameron says in a spot that Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is a “nice enough guy,” but criticizes him for his “soft approach on crime” and because he “caves into the far left.” (If you’ve been following along since the primary, you’ll remember that Cameron got hit with the same attack: He’s “nice,” but not a “strong Kentucky conservative.”) Meanwhile, in his closing ad, Beshear says that Cameron’s campaign is “built on attacks and lies,” and highlights Kentucky’s economic and job growth. And Defending Bluegrass Values, the Democratic Governors Association’s affiliate group in Kentucky, continues to go on the offense in support of Beshear. MS GOV — Independent Mississippi state Rep. Angela Cockerham cut an ad for Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves, urging voters to support him because he can “solve complicated problems.”
| | LEGAL LOOK — Republican Wisconsin lawmakers are temporarily blocked “from removing or replacing the state's top election official as the legal dispute over her appointment continues,” according to a county judge’s ruling. Read more from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Jessie Opoien about the back-and-forth as Republicans try to replace Wisconsin Elections Commission Administrator Meagan Wolfe.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN SCORE — Michaela Kurinsky-Malos is campaign manager for Democratic Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride’s bid for the state’s at-large House seat. Kurinsky-Malos previously managed Maryland Democrat Will Jawando, who recently dropped his bid for Senate, and Democrat Kermit Jones’ campaign for CA-03 last year. — Rob Burgess, former Republican Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson’s presidential campaign manager, is leaving the campaign “due to differences over direction and whether [Hutchinson] still has a path to the 2024 Republican nomination,” per CNN’s Veronica Stracqualursi. — Peter Daou resigned as campaign manager for independent presidential candidate Cornel West, citing the need to “rest from the extreme stress of two campaigns in one cycle.” — Noah Dion is campaign manager for Rep. Andy Kim’s (D-N.J.) Senate campaign. Dion was previously coordinated campaign manager for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and is a Biden, Pete Buttigieg and DCCC alum. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — "He is very emotionally sensitive and intelligent and vulnerable. ... That’s what makes someone a vibrantly masculine person." — Social media influencer Tony P about Biden to POLITICO.
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