Pachyderm at the policyfest

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Oct 31, 2023 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan Presented by Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → Prepare for a double dose of ambitious Liberal climate policy talk as critics come at the Trudeau government's handling of climate policy. → A pair of fundraisers aim to fill campaign warchests in a potential Toronto battleground. → Three hot takes on Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY's highly anticipated policy reset. DRIVING THE DAY CLIMATE WEEK — The timing of a pair of big-name conferences this week on climate policy and "sustainable finance" is a little awkward. For three days, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU's stunning climbdown will likely be the elephant in the room. And if it's not, it should be. A carbon tax carve-out largely for maritimers forced to pick between warming their homes with heating oil and paying their bills hit a brick wall of punditry, even among Liberals. Trudeau called the shift a "double down" on climate policy. His critics on the center and left saw it as the opposite — the beginning of the end for a carbon tax that might've justified Alberta's constant claim that Ottawa cares less about that province. As for his critics on the right? Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE has threatened to order the provincial gas utility SaskEnergy to stop collecting the carbon tax as of next January. Unless, of course, Ottawa carves out a tax exemption for Saskatchewanians who heat their homes, too. "The carbon tax is now effectively dead," economist TREVOR TOMBE wrote on X after Moe's announcement. “And the federal government killed it in the dumbest way possible." — Enter the Liberal thinkers: Time to talk more about bold policy for the future. This morning, Canada2020 convenes the day-long Fall 2023 Net-Zero Leadership Summit at the Westin Hotel. Tomorrow, the two-day Sustainable Finance Forum gets underway next door at the Shaw Centre. CATHERINE MCKENNA, a key defender of the "pan-Canadian approach to pricing carbon pollution" that has driven Liberal climate policy for years — aka the carbon price/tax — will attend both confabs. So will MARK CARNEY, a perpetually potential Liberal candidate who delivers keynotes these days like it's his day job. Both arrive at their sessions with asterisks beside their names. McKenna, chair of a U.N. High-Level Expert Group on Net-Zero Commitments of Non-State Entities who left government in part to focus on climate policy, is scheduled to talk today about "what Canada needs to win in the clean economy future," and tomorrow plans to lay out the "cost of inaction." Carney, U.N. special envoy for climate action and finance, kicks off the conference with "opening comments" about "Canada’s net-zero leadership opportunity." He'll join McKenna's cost of inaction panel. — Unofficially, though: The double-whammy of climate and sustainability chatter can't pass by without at least a few pointed conversations on the margins about the state of the Liberal climate plan — and the latest batch of fed-prov fights on the file. Will you be on this week's summitry circuit? Tell us what you're hearing . — Relevant reading: Here was McKenna's extended take on Heating-oil Pause Day: "As a competition lawyer I find it particularly galling that politicians blame a revenue neutral carbon price for high costs rather than actually addressing the fact that we have monopolies or near monopolies in so many key sectors from grocery to banking to telecoms to airlines. "And don't get me started on the fact that while people are hurting bc they are paying more for oil & gas to heat their homes, oil & gas companies make record profits, return them to shareholders, then demand that taxpayers pay to clean up their pollution — and governments do it. "Politics is bonkers. We have real problems. We have real solutions. I know hard things are hard but how about politicians match problems with solutions & be straight up about why certain action was needed. As Chrétien advised me: "Canadians are reasonable. Be reasonable." — More relevant reading: Substacker PAUL WELLS on Trudeau's shocker backtrack on carbon tax home heating: “He learned early that his preferred policies could be hard to sell.” — Also on the Canada2020 agenda: ANNE MCLELLAN, LISA RAITT, SONYA SAVAGE, MEGAN LESLIE, MARK CAMERON, SEAMUS O'REGAN. — Also on the Sustainable Finance agenda: RYAN TURNBULL, FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, STEVEN GUILBEAULT, HARJIT SAJJAN, ROSA GALVEZ, RATNA OMIDVAR, KATHARINE HAYHOE, ANITA ANAND, JEAN-YVES DUCLOS, JENNA SUDDS, RECHIE VALDEZ, SEAN FRASER, MIKE MOFFATT. — On the agenda at both: JONATHAN WILKINSON, MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD — Not on the agenda (yet): Trudeau, who attended the first sustainable finance summit last November and is no stranger to the Liberal-heavy Canada2020 crowd.   A message from Google Canada: We help defend critical infrastructure in Canada.  Critical infrastructure has become an increasingly common target for cyberattacks. That’s why Google is working with organizations across the country to help protect the infrastructure we rely on. When these organizations run on Google Cloud, we can help protect them with the same AI-powered security that protects Google. Explore how Google is helping to keep Canadians safe online at g.co/safety/cyber.   For your radar A BREWING 416 BATTLE — Conservatives haven't won a federal seat in Toronto since 2011 when STEPHEN HARPER secured nine MPs in the city on the way to a majority win. Liberals have won every 416-area seat for three elections in a row, but a sustained run of dreary polling threatens that stranglehold — and could explain a pair of fundraising events planned for November in a potential battleground. — Target-rich environment: 338Canada's most recent projection gives the Tories an edge in six seats they also swung in 2011: Don Valley West, Eglinton–Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke–Lakeshore, Willowdale and York Centre. — Solid red, mostly: York Centre voters sent ART EGGLETON and KEN DRYDEN to Ottawa, leading lights of Liberals past. It's typically safe turf. But MARK ADLER roared past Dryden in 2011, winning nearly 50 percent of the vote — the only Tory in the past 60 years to pull off the feat. — Current odds: Now, former MPP and CPC leadership candidate ROMAN BABER is the Conservative candidate. Baber was booted from DOUG FORD's caucus over opposition to Covid lockdowns but welcomed into PIERRE POILIEVRE's party. YA'ARA SAKS, a second-term MP promoted to Cabinet over the summer, is running for re-election. 338Canada gives Baber a 92 percent chance of winning. — Warchest season: Saks headlines a lunchtime fundraiser at the Bay Street offices of law firm Miller Thomson on Nov. 10. Minimum required donation is C$400 (C$150 for youth). Earlier this year, Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Women and Gender Equality and Youth Minister MARCI IEN also headlined separate fundraisers for Saks' riding association. Baber hosts a Nov. 23 evening fundraiser at a private residence in the riding's Clanton Park neighborhood. He'll be joined by Tory Deputy Leader MELISSA LANTSMAN, whose Thornhill riding sits next door. — Status quo: Many Toronto riding boundaries got overhauled in the recent redraw by an independent commission. But the shape of York Centre didn't change one iota. TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS — Happy Halloween, the one day that Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU can get away with wearing a costume. Trudeau will chair the Cabinet meeting at 10 a.m. and attend question period at 2 p.m. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will hold a press conference at 1 p.m. She'll be joined by Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND and Housing Minister SEAN FRASER. 11 a.m. The House public accounts committee will launch into a new study looking at the millions earmarked by the National Capital Commission for a Rideau Hall storage building also known as The C$8 million Barn That Conservatives Love To Hate. 11:15 a.m. NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak with reporters in West Block. 11:30 a.m. The Canadian Club of Ottawa will play host to U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN’s keynote on Canada-U.S. relations touching on “Bidenomics” and “friend shoring” at the Château Laurier. 1:15 p.m. Immigration Minister MARC MILLER will release a Strategic Immigration Review report and "the plan to improve Canada's immigration system." 1:45 p.m. Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET will talk to reporters in the House foyer about his opposition day motion that calls on the government to review its 2024 immigration targets (in consultation with provinces and territories). 3:30 p.m. JIM BALSILLIE, founder of the Centre for Digital Rights, will be among the witnesses at the House industry committee’s study on Bill C-27. HALLWAY CONVERSATION A NEW DOCTRINE — Former foreign minister LLOYD AXWORTHY championed a global "responsibility to protect" against crimes against humanity. MICHAEL IGNATIEFF campaigned on a "global networks strategy" following the financial crisis. STÉPHANE DION tried out "responsible conviction" in the early days of the Trudeau era. Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY unveiled her vision Monday for "pragmatic diplomacy" in the first of two major speeches meant to reset her government's approach to a geopolitically fraught world of competing crises. Joly will deliver similar remarks tomorrow in Montreal. Playbook asked two former ambassadors, ARIF LALANI and LOUISE BLAIS, as well as former Trudeau foreign policy adviser ROLAND PARIS, to reflect on Joly's rhetorical reset. Arif Lalani, distinguished fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation: The minister's speech sets out valid foreign policy objectives. But we must be clear that there is no going back to the old order. The economic and even intellectual weight in international affairs is shifting to Eurasia. Canada and the West need to be prepared for an entirely new order — with new institutions, networks and pragmatic states that will not align ideologically. Today’s global context makes clear that to have influence, you must invest in hard power. Canada needs to clearly commit to increased defense spending and meet NATO’s clear requirements. Absent that, Canadian statements and visits to frontlines will lack credibility and be seen as more "Canadasplaining." Closer ties to Korea and Japan are important, but they cannot amount to an Indo-Pacific strategy. Business and people-to-people links demand that Canada puts its relationship with India back on track and navigates its relationship with China more actively. Engagement in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean region is key. This is where the world's largest pool of financial resources and population now resides. Investing in the U.N. can only achieve so much. The true test will be how we engage new entities where we are not, nor likely to be members — the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is an example. How we influence these entities, which increasingly matter to our business community, will be vital to Canada’s security and prosperity. Louise Blais, special senior adviser on international affairs at the Business Council of Canada: Beyond some clichés, what merits attention are elements in the speech that are clear departures from previous policy. Here are some that jumped out at me: → Canada's values-based or feminist foreign policy is replaced by a pragmatic foreign policy that is realist and closely tied to our interest and sovereignty. I think this is spot on. → Hard power is as important as soft power, and we should expect defense investments. (How we square that with recent cuts, I am not sure. I take the minister at her word.) → We cannot afford to close ourselves from those with whom we disagree. Amen. Joly's message appears to be: Our echo chamber and sporadic tone-deaf engagements with the Global South has reduced our influence and must be recalibrated. You don't say. I appreciated the minister's focus on diplomats and embassies. They should be listened to when decisions are made in Ottawa. Roland Paris, director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa: Minister Joly does a good job of explaining the scale and complexity of the challenges facing Canada — from rising threats posed by hostile external actors to the spectre of anti-democratic extremism within Western societies — and the importance of strengthening Canada’s capacities to deal with these challenges. But will the government devote the attention and resources necessary to implement the policy outlined in her speech, including investments not just in military preparedness (an essential insurance policy for Canada in a world of growing instability), but also in our diplomatic capabilities and presence around the world (so that we can head off problems and build partnerships on issues affecting Canada’s core interests)? Our country remains under-prepared for a period of tumult that may only grow worse. I used to warn about dark clouds on the horizon; now they are directly overhead. — How to make friends and influence people: Blais and several former ambassadors co-author a new report out this morning on how Canada can rebuild influence at the U.N. The panel of authors was chaired by former NATO ambassador KERRY BUCK and Carleton prof MICHAEL MANULAK. They'll launch their report at 9:30 a.m. at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.   PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     MEDIA ROOM — From POLITICO's ZI-ANN LUM: Canada clarifies its stance on a ‘humanitarian truce’ — Canada appears on an Israeli government "concept paper" that proposes transferring millions of Gazans outside the territory and into Egypt — with Canada on the list of potential resettlement options. — JESSICA SMITH CROSS, AIDAN CHAMANDY, JACK HAUEN and CHARLIE PINKERTON report in The Trillium on a major Greenbelt scandal document dump that has opposition parties claiming they tie Premier DOUG FORD to the controversial decisions. — Still on the Greenbelt, Ford reportedly removed former Cabinet minister JANET ECKER from the Metrolinx board following her critical comments about the government. — WESLEY WARK, via Substack, pans Joly’s Toronto speech. — MÉLANIE MARQUIS at La Presse documents the gag order on diplomats via Global Affairs Canada, despite the prime minister promising the government would be open by default. — ROB SHAW writes for Glacier Media: “DAVID EBY needs to realize the PM doesn't want to be friends”  PROZONE Our latest policy newsletter for POLITICO Pro subscribers by KYLE DUGGAN: Ottawa gets earful on online news law First in Pro Canada PM:  → Microsoft Canada wrote to Ottawa applauding the Online News Act, while seeking tweaks to the threshold for inclusion under the law. → The law is inflicting collateral damage on small media players such as The Bridge Canada, an independent news outlet aimed at immigrants from Latin America. “Meta's blocking of news in Canada in response to the government's Bill C-18 is killing us,” its co-founder GABRIEL RAMIREZ wrote. “Nobody is reaching or watching our videos. Please repeal Bill C-18.” In other news for Pro subscribers:   — Who's in charge? Western capitals scramble to lead on AI. — ELON MUSK coming to RISHI SUNAK’s AI summit. — The money fight that could ‘break’ the climate summit — Poland’s incoming government won’t cancel pricey defense contracts — German economy contracts in Q3, weighing on the rest of Europe. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: Happy Halloween BD to Liberal MP KIRSTY DUNCAN, Conservative MP CHRIS D’ENTREMONT, journo AMANDA LANG and former MP YVES ROCHELEAU. Send us birthdays: ottawaplaybook@politico.com Spotted: A refreshed House portrait for the glasses-less PIERRE POILIEVRE. Compare the before (no smile) and after (wide grin). The latter photo's metadata dates the image to Aug. 18 … Attending a recent Poilievre fundraiser, according to Elections Canada: DEIRDRE MCMURDY and BRETT LINDROS. House Speaker GREG FERGUS, meeting with EU Ambassador MELITA GABRIČ. Conservative operative and consultant FRED DELOREY, launching a podcast with iPolitics. Movers and shakers: The Women's Executive Network announced its annual Top 100 Most Powerful Women in Canada. Counsel's JOHN DELACOURT is lobbying for Toyota on the Hill … AUCOIN Strategy's LAURENCE TÔTH is representing EnviroCompétences, which is hoping for a seat on the government's planned Sustainable Jobs Partnership Council. CBC News’ former chief correspondent PETER MANSBRIDGE has joined Spark Advocacy as senior counsel … Finance Associate Deputy Minister NICK LESWICK is leaving his post for a job at the Bank of Canada as its new executive director of policy. He starts Jan 9. Media mentions: JOY SPEARCHIEF-MORRIS joins the Toronto Star’s parliamentary bureau to follow Indigenous issues and politics.   A message from Google Canada:   On the Hill — The Cabinet meets in Ottawa. 8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada releases new gross domestic product numbers by industry for August. 9 a.m. The Senate national finance committee will meet to study main estimates with department officials from Statistics Canada, the Canada Border Services Agency, Correctional Services Canada and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. 9 a.m. The Senate transport and communications committee will meet to continue their study on the impacts of climate change on critical infrastructure. 9 a.m. The Senate Indigenous committee will hear from representatives of Piikani Nation, Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation, Siksika Nation, Manitoba Métis Federation and the Grand Council of the Crees. 9:30 a.m. The Senate rules and procedures committee will meet to chat about an upcoming report. 11 a.m. National Gallery of Canada Director and CEO JEAN-FRANÇOIS BÉLISLE will be at the House heritage committee to discuss his appointment as the gallery’s top boss. 11 a.m. The House international trade committee will start a new study on Canada’s proposed biocides regulation and its impact on sectors. 11 a.m. The House environment committee will continue its study of freshwater with 10 department officials from environment, fisheries, natural resources and transport. 11 a.m. The House public accounts committee will launch into a new study looking at the millions earmarked by the National Capital Commission for a Rideau Hall storage building. 11:30 a.m. The Canadian Club of Ottawa will play host to U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN’s keynote on Canada-U.S. relations touching on “Bidenomics” and “friend shoring” at the Château Laurier. 3:30 p.m. JIM BALSILLIE, founder of the Centre for Digital Rights, will be among the witnesses at the House industry committee’s study on Bill C-27. 3:30 p.m. Two presidents from Dalian Enterprises Inc,. one of the five contractors hired to build the ArriveCAN, will be up at the House government operations committee study on the app. 3:30 p.m. Bill C-53 is the topic of study at the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee. 4:30 p.m. Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI will drop by the second half of the House justice committee where MPs are studying Bill C-40. 4:30 p.m. The House national defense committee has televised “committee business” on its schedule. 5 p.m. Veterans Affairs Minister GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR and Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE will be up at the House veterans affairs committee to take questions on the national monument to Canada’s mission in Afghanistan. 6:30 p.m. The special joint committee on medical assistance in dying will elect new joint chairs. 6:30 p.m. The Senate agriculture and forestry committee’s study on soil health in Canada continues. Behind closed doors: The House fisheries committee meets to again discuss its study on pinniped populations; the House procedure and House affairs committee will talk about “committee business”; the House citizenship and immigration committee meets to review a draft report of application backlogs and processing times; the House defense committee will be focused on a draft report and committee business. TRIVIA Monday’s answer: The "yes" camp in a high-stakes referendum on Quebec's independence lost by a margin of 54,288 votes on Oct. 30 1995. Props to Speaker GREG FERGUS, STU NEATBY, ALLAN FABRYKANT, QASIR DAR, SCOTT LOHNES, PATRICK ST-JACQUES, JOHN DILLON, DOUG SWEET, GEORGE SHOENHOFER, MICHAEL HORNAK, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MARC LEBLANC, GERMAINE MALABRE and GORDON RANDALL. Have a trivia question that will stump Playbook readers? Send it our way. Today’s question: On this date in history, who received the Order of Canada in celebration of their 100th birthday? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage and Emma Anderson.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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